Updating this with Howard's transfer:
1. Notre Dame-this will be one of Notre Dame's most talented rosters ever. The starting 5 will likely be 4 seniors (Turner, Shepard, Ogunbowale, Mabrey) and 1 junior (Young). If they can stay healthy, they'll be very very good. And if they have injuries, they'll still be very very good knowing Muffet. Adding in Turner means Shepard can move to the high post which brings a whole new dimension to the roster.
2. UCONN-another ridiculously stacked roster for UCONN comes in. Two 2x All Americans, 2 other #1 recruits, one of the better PGs in the country in Dangerfield, plus another top 5 freshman and you have the most top heavy roster in the country. UCONN's biggest concerns are depth and defense. They lose 2 DPOYs in Nurse/Williams who were lockdown defenders, and you lose Stevens who was a game changer off the bench with her size and ability to finish inside. That said, UCONN has gone 188-3 over the last 5 years so I don't expect them to go anywhere.
3. Oregon-I still think they're a year away from being a title favorite, but a Final Four should be the expectation next year. Everyone but Bando returns, plus they bring in an exceptional shooter in Erin Boley. The trio of Sabally, Ionescu and Hebard will give opposing coaches nightmares.
4. Baylor-Kalani Brown will be a POY favorite next year and Cox should be an All American. Those two alone make Baylor a title threat. Their major loss is outstanding PG Kristy Wallace but they have a nice freshman PG in Morris who will bring a different dimension in a starting role. They bring in a monster class, plus Jackson from LSU...this roster will require a lot of juggling by Mulkey to keep everyone happy. Baylor has been a notorious underachiever for 6 straight years now....can they finally break the Final Four curse in Brown's last year? I'm thinking yes, but I also thought they'd comfortably make the Final Four the last 3 seasons...
5. Mississippi State-Plain and simple, I expect them to win the rebounding battle every single game next season now that Howard is on board. I don't expect Mississippi State to go 37-2 this year, but I think they'll be back in the Final Four mix. They have one of the best coaches in the country and one of the best players in Teaira McCowan, who could be the POY in 2018-19. Holmes is incredibly solid at the point even if she isn't spectacular. They do need someone to emerge as a perimeter scoring threat who can get their own shot, but I think Mississippi State will be the class of the SEC once again.
6. Louisville-Asia Durr is back along with her entire team sans Hines-Allen. The frontcourt will be fine with Fuerhing and Shook. Their trio of guards (Jones/Carter/Evans) have huge upside and could make Louisville a contender if they can consistently make shots like they did in the semifinals. 2017-18 was by far the best coaching job of Walz's career--I'm curious to see if he can keep it up.
7. Texas-On paper this team is absolutely loaded. They have a ton of question marks though. How will Sutton or Patterson step up at PG and replace McCarty? Can Holmes return to freshman form after a tough sophomore year? How will Williams fit in at the 2? How does Karen distribute front court minutes? I expect Texas to be streaky like they've been the last several years. When they play well, they are capable of beating anyone, but when they play lazy, they can lose to some bad teams. Coaching is going to make or break the Horns this year, and I've been underwhelmed by Aston the last few seasons.
8. Maryland-they were a better team this year than I expected. For all the flack she gets, Brenda is actually a pretty good coach. Everyone is back besides Confroy, and they bring in the #3 recruit in Shakira Austin who should stabilize the frontcourt. Kaila Charles is VERY good.
9. Oregon State-I think Rueck is one of the best coaches in the country and he has Slocum on the team and a top 10 recruit coming in. They also return everyone but Gulich from this year's team. I'd look for them to give Oregon a run for their money in the PAC.
10. South Carolina-It'll be a very different look for SC this year without a Wilson or Coates type dominating that paint. They'll be loaded with guards but lack consistent producers in the front court. Also--is there any confirmation that Jennings is coming back? Dawn's a good coach and will make the Gamecocks competitive.
Teams in potential free fall include:
Tennessee-they sign another top 5 class but they lose their 2 best players and have Holly coaching arguably her last talented team ever. That's scary.
Duke-they lose their top 2 players and I don't see anyone waiting in the wings to make up the massive void left by Brown/Greenwell.
Ohio State-if they finish in the top half of the Big Ten, I'll be impressed. McGuff just wasted 4 years with Kelsey Mitchell (and 2 with Mavunga/Harper).....they likely plummet out of the national picture and struggle to compete in the B1G.
UCLA-no Final Fours for their #1 recruiting class, they still haven't talent but I don't expect to see them in any Final Four discussions next year.
Texas A&M-I wouldn't say free fall, but they lose a ton in Howard, Williams and Hillman. Carter can be sensational, but she can also really struggle from the floor too and play 1 on 5 instead of getting teammates involved. Blair to needs to help her improve that area of her game or A&M could have a tough year.