Too early 2018-19 Rankings

[triaddukefan]

This last page got me confused...... I had to scroll back up to make sure I was posting in the 2018-19 early rankings thread

Previously just listed 1-8.......... I'll go with Lower Carolina at #9.... and Miss State at #10

 

[Shmermerer]

1. Notre Dame
2. UCONN
3. Baylor
4. Louisville
5. Oregon
6. Mississippi State
7. Texas
8. South Carolina
9. DePaul (brings back almost everyone)
10. Marquette (If Tori McCoy is able to play)

Trying not to be Big East biased but both DePaul and Marquette bring pretty much everyone back. I can't think of any teams that for sure are way better. I was going to put Stanford in the top 10, but they were so awful when McPhee was injured.

 

[bballnut90]

Not sure why you seem to be so sold on Nelson-Ododa's impact as a freshmen. Will she play more than 15 minutes a game? What percentage of those will be prior to outcome being decided?

Collier has had significant issues at times in the post defensively if you'll recall her foul trouble issues of her sophomore season.

To the guards, Walker isn't one. It'll be interesting who gets that position considering that fact. And while I like Christyn Williams I don't put my hopes in freshmen as mentioned.

Notre Dame counted on zero freshmen this year. You are suggesting UConn will have to count on two. Of the Irish's best players this year, one was an underclassmen. UConn would have to count on as many as four (ONO, CW, Walker, Coombs) to have any chance. Those are two very different equations.

I'm not sold that ONO is going to make a huge impact, but it's likely that she'll be a rotation player and will make strides by the end of the season.

Collier averaged less than 2 fouls a game this past season. She averaged about the same number of blocks....I wouldn't be overly worried about her being foul prone.

KLS will probably be more of the off guard than Walker, as KLS is a stronger passer and also more of a perimeter shooter than Walker. Regardless though, both will likely play on the wing and be utilized in a way to maximize their strengths.


In regards to the upperclassmen comment, UCONN has never won a title without starter level contributions from at least 2+ upperclassmen. The only exception to this is 2002 when DT was the lone productive underclassman (and an AA one at that). Realistically, UCONN only needs a solid core 6 to win the title, so they'll need contributions from 3 underclassmen. And again, I'll reiterate that they have the two most highly touted underclassmen from their high school classes, so I wouldn't be overly concerned about getting production from those players.

Most other programs have only been able to win titles with lineups usually loaded with upperclassmen (2018 Notre Dame, 2017 SC, 2012 Baylor, 2011 A&M, 2007 and 2008 Tennessee, etc) but UCONN has had little trouble winning with young players playing big roles.

 

[LoTrader]

Well my top 10 would be:
1.ND
2.UCONN
3. Baylor
4. Oregon
5.Oregon St
6. Louisville
7. South Carolina
8. Texas
9. Stanford
10. Maryland

Appreciate the respect I'm seeing for Oregon State! I just don't see it unless Rueck can bring along a "post player" strategy that gives OSU some post scoring, post passing, post rebounding, and post shot blocking. Right now, I don't see it. The addition of Slocum is absolutely HUGE, but, losing Marie Gulich is "HUGER". Perhaps a post player who can help immediately will transfer in, and then, I like the position of OSU in your list. I want to believe!

 

[SCspur]

Appreciate the respect I'm seeing for Oregon State! I just don't see it unless Rueck can bring along a "post player" strategy that gives OSU some post scoring, post passing, post rebounding, and post shot blocking. Right now, I don't see it. The addition of Slocum is absolutely HUGE, but, losing Marie Gulich is "HUGER". Perhaps a post player who can help immediately will transfer in, and then, I like the position of OSU in your list. I want to believe!

No problem! I know a good team when I see one! OSU will have 3 post players next year to build around. Their guard play will be superb! If Grymek can rebound, alter shots, and make plays when her guards get her the ball I think OSU will be fine. I think she'll be surrounded by numerous shooters so the opportunity will be there! Having Slocum at point will be big as well because Pivec can play off ball and it also allows them to have better "team speed" with her pushing pace. All that on top of a coach like Scott Rueck and I could easily see them making the FF.

 

[LoTrader]

No problem! I know a good team when I see one! OSU will have 3 post players next year to build around. Their guard play will be superb! If Grymek can rebound, alter shots, and make plays when her guards get her the ball I think OSU will be fine. I think she'll be surrounded by numerous shooters so the opportunity will be there! Having Slocum at point will be big as well because Pivec can play off ball and it also allows them to have better "team speed" with her pushing pace. All that on top of a coach like Scott Rueck and I could easily see them making the FF.

Thanks SCspur. Unfortunately, Grymek is not the answer. She has a difficult time just catching a ball (from a pass, in the form of a rebound, etc.). She is not your typical OSU post player. One of the new recruits has to be better, or, a transfer, or, OSU's inside-outside offensive schemes will go nowhere. I am a season ticket holder, and, watched Grymek in many games. You just hoped she didn't trip over her shoelace and fall on one of our other players! Rueck is a miracle worker, so, we'll see what he comes up with for next season.

 

[Fightin Choke]

1. Notre Dame: Won NC, lose Westbeld, but get Turner and Vaughn back. Freshman class looks good. ND riding the wave right now. Hope they don't read their press clippings.
2. UConn: Lose the most of any team (3 WNBA 1st rounders), but return a ton as well. Geno will relish the role of underdog* and Pheesa, Lou and CD are ridiculously good. Will require development of players who didn't get much playing time in 2017-18, but look at how the 2016-17 season turned out. UConn ain't going anywhere.
3. Baylor: 1-seed talent a year ago, Baylor loses only Wallace and Cohen. Wallace's shoes will be capably filled by Morris, and Cohen's spot has a lot of talent in Waco to fill it. Everyone else gets more experienced and hungrier. #1 recruiting class helps with depth.
4. Oregon: The loss of Bando is less than the addition of Boley, and all the other starters are a year more experienced. A very young, fearless team who just needs to more effectively channel their emotions this year. The Elite 8 loss will fuel them.
5. Louisville: If they get Anriel Howard, they probably jump to #3 or #4. Lose Hines-Allen, who had an exceptional year, but lose nothing else. If they can be as confident as this season, they are FF bound again. Walz is an exceptional recruiter and could sell used cars after he retires. Also a hell of a coach.
6. South Carolina: This ranking assumes that Anriel Howard chooses the Gamecocks. If she does not, then they drop to #10. The loss of Wilson is huge, but Dawn has something going in Columbia. She is the best transfer recruiter in the biz, and that is a skill that will only become more important as time goes on. She imparts her passion and tenacity to her team.
7. Maryland: Charles is good, the B1G is not, and Frese has been accumulating assets (despite the departure of Slocum following the 2016-17 season). As long as their OOC schedule is sufficiently challenging, I see the Terps as a 2-seed.
8. Oregon State: Lose Gulich, get Slocum. If the other bigs can step up, you know the guards will more than hold their own. Rueck has developed a reputation for spinning straw into gold, especially with unheralded post players. Now he has some high quality silk to work with. Fear the Beavers!
9. Mississippi State: Vic is too good to drop out of the Top 10, even with no one that can shoot from outside of 12 feet. The Bulldogs need only score more than the opposition, and his pesky guards backed by McCowan will not allow many points. His success the past two years has netted him an excellent transfer (for 2018-19? Who knows?) and a great recruiting class. Things are looking up in Starkville.
10. Texas: Despite great games against UConn and FSU last season, Texas has underachieved given their awesome talent the past few years. Either Aston doesn't know how to beat the excellent teams, or she was unable to get her charges to execute that plan. If McCarty and Atkins were unable to carry out her plans, I doubt the inexperienced guards (Sutton and Patterson) will do a better job. Or does Aston have a viable plan? Great recruiter but may lack coaching ability. Also heard rumor that they might lose some players to transfer.

*Underdog for UConn is being anything but #1.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Thanks SCspur. Unfortunately, Grymek is not the answer. She has a difficult time just catching a ball (from a pass, in the form of a rebound, etc.). She is not your typical OSU post player. One of the new recruits has to be better, or, a transfer, or, OSU's inside-outside offensive schemes will go nowhere. I am a season ticket holder, and, watched Grymek in many games. You just hoped she didn't trip over her shoelace and fall on one of our other players! Rueck is a miracle worker, so, we'll see what he comes up with for next season.

I think she's better than you're giving her credit for. I do agree though that she should be a backup, not a starter. Her biggest problem is a glaring lack of foot speed and lateral quickness. I thought she has decent hands and knows what to do w/ the ball when she is in the paint. I don't think any of them are going to come close to replacing Gulich, but hopefully they can get some production from the trio of Grymek, Aquino and Morris.

Grymek gave some good minutes in one of the Tourney games (I think it was vs. Tennessee) when Gulich was in foul trouble in the first half. She's not gonna score like Marie but she's somewhat of a post presence. That's my take anyway.

Will be fascinating to see how much the boost of having a true PG and a player that can attack off the dribble offsets the loss of a dominating post player. I think I'm willing to give Rueck and the staff some benefit of the doubt after they finished 2 games out of first place in the conference and went to the Elite 8 in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year!

 

[Shorty Dee]

Way too soon. I do not believe UConn will be ranked #4 for long. Notre Dame will loose their #1 ranking after they play UConn .

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Way too soon. I do not believe UConn will be ranked #4 for long. Notre Dame will loose their #1 ranking after they play UConn .

Crikey, Dee. I'm already having nightmares of Collier trying to stave off Turner and Shepard on the interior.

 

[Shorty Dee]

Crikey, Dee. I'm already having nightmares of Collier trying to stave off Turner and Shepard on the interior.

Again, too soon. I think Napheesa will be fine. Nobody knows how UConn will play against Turner or Shepard...whether they play them one-on-one or double team them.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Again, too soon. I think Napheesa will be fine. Nobody knows how UConn will play against Turner or Shepard...whether they play them one-on-one or double team them.

Four players against two is going to leave three very open Irish.

 

[bbballfan23]

Crikey, Dee. I'm already having nightmares of Collier trying to stave off Turner and Shepard on the interior.

So you’re saying she isn’t as good as them!? Bahaha

 

[bballnut90]

To each is own I guess. While I don't particularly think they'll be bad I don't see them being as good as SC and making the E8 but I guess that's just me. McCowan and Bibby are bright spots but they're guard play will be considerably worst than SC's this past season. Interested to see where Vic takes them. He is a fine coach so I respect him to do a good job. Top 10? Nope, Top 15 maybe just maybe.

I think their guard play will be comparable to SC's this year. Jazzmun Holmes will be less offensive than Ty Harris, but is a better decision maker and takes better care of the ball. None of the returning Mississippi State guards have shown they can shoot, which might be their downfall like it was for SC. I think Danbury makes strides next year in a more prominent role. Same with Bibby.

At the end of the day though, McCowan is an absolute beast and that's the main reason why Mississippi State will still be in the hunt for a Final Four. She changes things on both ends of the court, and there really aren't any players in the country who can compete with her size, strength, and conditioning. She's going to improve in the off season and be even better next year. Combine her inside presence with the athletic quick guards playing perimeter defense, and you'll have one of the best defensive teams in the country once again.

Over the last few years we've seen Vic Schaefer develop talent as well as anyone in the country. I think that trend continues, and we'll see much improved play from players who took on more limited roles this past season. South Carolina has talent on the roster, but I think Vic is much better at developing his players than Dawn, and I think he's better and building a strong team where everyone knows her role and plays within herself. I think Mississippi State is still the team to beat in the SEC next year.

 

[wallman]

My take for what it's worth. I would base nothing on this years FF. LOL I said it. It was freaking weird.

ND will miss Westbeld, she was the only unselfish player that would pass before she looked for her own. The only other player I liked was Young but she was inconsistent. The jealousy will be epic between a couple of guards and fun to watch. Turner relied on explosion, that will be interesting to watch after an ACL and both she and Shepard like that low block. Nelson is a huge loss as she was the player who came off the bench and again did not care about her own stats.

Uconn will be Uconn. To be honest there will be more room and they could be back to spreading the floor, for drives. Dangerfield needs to be healthy as she needs to be able to pick up guards full court, otherwise her size then becomes an issue in the half court.

M State will be a whole different team without their 3 point threats. McCowan becomes lesss effective when you cannot spread the floor and get the ball to her.

Oregon will have to contain Ionescu as I think she is reading her own press clippings and it hurt them. Graves needs to get Carzola back in control and utilize their whole team but lack of defense will always be a problem for them to get to the top.

My own team goes back to the drawing board, but will it be a different approach as we didn't really live up to our own hype for the last 4 years.

Dark horse OSU has the ability and coaching to bust open the PAC.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

So you’re saying she isn’t as good as them!? Bahaha

I'm saying she--and Williams--had trouble containing Shepard in both games this year. Next year UConn will not have Williams but Notre Dame will add Brianna Turner to Shepard inside. Do the math.

 

[bbballfan23]

I'm saying she--and Williams--had trouble containing Shepard in both games this year. Next year UConn will not have Williams but Notre Dame will add Brianna Turner to Shepard inside. Do the math.

Why don’t you do the math & see what Pheesa has done against the Irish the last two years. She’s averaged 19.6 & 7.6 in 3 games against the Irish. Turner had 16 & 12 last year & Shepard averaged 13.5 & 9.5. She’s outplayed them both in all 3 games.

 

[sharris952]

I think their guard play will be comparable to SC's this year. Jazzmun Holmes will be less offensive than Ty Harris, but is a better decision maker and takes better care of the ball. None of the returning Mississippi State guards have shown they can shoot, which might be their downfall like it was for SC. I think Danbury makes strides next year in a more prominent role. Same with Bibby.

At the end of the day though, McCowan is an absolute beast and that's the main reason why Mississippi State will still be in the hunt for a Final Four. She changes things on both ends of the court, and there really aren't any players in the country who can compete with her size, strength, and conditioning. She's going to improve in the off season and be even better next year. Combine her inside presence with the athletic quick guards playing perimeter defense, and you'll have one of the best defensive teams in the country once again.

Over the last few years we've seen Vic Schaefer develop talent as well as anyone in the country. I think that trend continues, and we'll see much improved play from players who took on more limited roles this past season. South Carolina has talent on the roster, but I think Vic is much better at developing his players than Dawn, and I think he's better and building a strong team where everyone knows her role and plays within herself. I think Mississippi State is still the team to beat in the SEC next year.

 

[sharris952]

I respectfully disagree. Ty Harris is the best true point guard in the SEC. She was second team All SEC only because of the outstanding play of scoring pg Chennedy Carter of A&M. Holmes came in for spurts but was a better defensive option for Vic than Morgan, who was better offensively. Ty can do both and next yr she will not have to play 40 minutes a game. SC will bring back more scoring guards wirh elite talent this year than Miss St. Imo. Also even with last year, Miss. St only outplayed SC in one of the 8qtrs they played. Obviously as great as many have annointed Vic, Dawn outcoaches hom in 99% of their head to head matchups. Even in the SEC title game not starting Aja, South Carolina out executed them prior to Aja entering the game. Herrigan put McCowan on the bench with fouls not Aja. I think South Carolina will still lead the way in the SEC especially with Miss. St. losses. Question is how will McCowan handle the double teams and triple teams Aja endured when she lost her proven wing players. I think Miss.St will have to work hard to duplicate the last two years of which South Carolina still won both SEC tourney Championships.

 

[lebronfan23]

- Pheesa will be unstoppable next year 20 plus a game.
- Lou will be back stronger and have that mindset Stewie had her senior year (grown women playing against little girls 20 plus points.
- Crystal will finally make it her Moriah Jefferson status 15 plus points and season record holder for assists also our guard defensive stopper.
- Megan will show us what we’ve been missing out on and she’ll finally be involved in the offense 15 plus points a game and I think she will lead us in rebounds (I’m seeing a lot of double doubles and possibly our baby Maya Moore).
- Tooly always played hard the little time she got to play. She has the potential to have a 10 plus game a night and out big body in the middle.
- Coombs will be a confident guard who will help take pressure off Crystal and make big plays 7 plus points right here.
- Lexis will be our secret weapon. She’ll become a better shooter and faster player 7 plus points.
- Kyla will be stronger and a player that wants the ball.
- Molly
- Our Freshmen will live up to the hype and one of them will be national freshmen of year.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Why don’t you do the math & see what Pheesa has done against the Irish the last two years. She’s averaged 19.6 & 7.6 in 3 games against the Irish. Turner had 16 & 12 last year & Shepard averaged 13.5 & 9.5. She’s outplayed them both in all 3 games.

This isn't really addressing my point.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

- Pheesa will be unstoppable next year 20 plus a game.
- Lou will be back stronger and have that mindset Stewie had her senior year (grown women playing against little girls 20 plus points.
- Crystal will finally make it her Moriah Jefferson status 15 plus points and season record holder for assists also our guard defensive stopper.
- Megan will show us what we’ve been missing out on and she’ll finally be involved in the offense 15 plus points a game and I think she will lead us in rebounds (I’m seeing a lot of double doubles and possibly our baby Maya Moore).
- Tooly always played hard the little time she got to play. She has the potential to have a 10 plus game a night and out big body in the middle.
- Coombs will be a confident guard who will help take pressure off Crystal and make big plays 7 plus points right here.
- Lexis will be our secret weapon. She’ll become a better shooter and faster player 7 plus points.
- Kyla will be stronger and a player that wants the ball.
- Molly
- Our Freshmen will live up to the hype and one of them will be national freshmen of year.

So UConn will average 94 per game minimum before calculating in the freshmen, one of whom will be the FOY. So, like 115+ points per game.

I'll all for positive outlooks but I think you may have overshot here.

 

[Vowelguy]

It is unlikely that Coombs Gordon and Christyn will all be major players alongside CD.

Only exception is if Ono and Batouly don’t emerge and UConn has to resort to a guard dominated lineup.

Most probable is a rotation of the big 3 , Walker, and 2-4 of the rest.

 

[bbballfan23]

This isn't really addressing my point.

My point is that they had much more of an issue containing her than the other way around

 

[bballnut90]

I respectfully disagree. Ty Harris is the best true point guard in the SEC. She was second team All SEC only because of the outstanding play of scoring pg Chennedy Carter of A&M. Holmes came in for spurts but was a better defensive option for Vic than Morgan, who was better offensively. Ty can do both and next yr she will not have to play 40 minutes a game. SC will bring back more scoring guards wirh elite talent this year than Miss St. Imo. Also even with last year, Miss. St only outplayed SC in one of the 8qtrs they played. Obviously as great as many have annointed Vic, Dawn outcoaches hom in 99% of their head to head matchups. Even in the SEC title game not starting Aja, South Carolina out executed them prior to Aja entering the game. Herrigan put McCowan on the bench with fouls not Aja. I think South Carolina will still lead the way in the SEC especially with Miss. St. losses. Question is how will McCowan handle the double teams and triple teams Aja endured when she lost her proven wing players. I think Miss.St will have to work hard to duplicate the last two years of which South Carolina still won both SEC tourney Championships.

We can agree to disagree. Also, Mississippi State won 3 of the 8 quarters, not just 1 like you mentioned. And the score was 4-2 when Wilson came in off the bench in the SEC Championship...they played a grand total of 3 minutes and 33 seconds before she came in. I also don't see McCowan picking up 2 quick ones next year against SC. She was normally fantastic at avoiding foul trouble, and she learned her lesson after that game. I wouldn't read too much into that.

And Vic has not done well head to head against Dawn, but he's always had less talent to work with than Dawn. This past year was the first time that they were on equal playing fields in regards to talent, and they split the two meetings. The previous year you had Davis, Coates, and Gray (three top 10 picks), plus Wilson...Mississippi State never had comparable talent.

Ultimately, I think this boils down to who you have faith in, Dawn and her players or Vic and his. I personally think Vic is a better coach than Dawn and believe McCowan will be a strong candidate for NPOY, so that's why I have them in my top 10 but do not have SC.