Duke and Tennessee could both finish the season with double digit losses and also multiple losses to unranked teams. Which school will be the first to make a coaching ?
Which one might not make the NCAA tournament?
If I were a betting person I'd wager both make the field, but if things played out according to their current RPI's Tennessee would finish 18-11 and somewhere between 5th - 10th in the SEC. One more unexpected loss, say Georgia or Vanderbilt, they could finish 17-12 and probably no better than 7th in the SEC with an RPI almost certainly in the 50's. With a 1st round loss in the SEC tournament would that get them a bid? Probably, but I think that scenario, which is quite likely, shows just how precarious their situation is, particularly when you look at their two 2 pt. wins over Syracuse and Chattanooga and a 3 pt. win over Oregon St. That's all that stands between Tennessee and an 8-8 record. That's really stunning!
Duke's circumstances appear to be much less dire and they have more room for unexpected hiccups. If their remaining schedule played out based on relative RPI's they'd finish with a record of 21-9 and 10-6 in the ACC. Even with 1 or 2 unexpected losses it's hard to imagine that not being good enough.