Three predictions

[chrissaran]

According to Geno's philosophy, playing the best players means Saniya and Courtney will be behind Breanna, Moriah, Morgan, Kia, Natalie, Napheesa, Katie Lou, Gabby and De'Janae when she returns. There won't be much playing time for either, except when there's a blowout, which will be quite often. As for Gabby starting over Natalie, it won't happen. With Natalie and Morgan in the starting lineup, Breanna will be even more of a nightmare mismatch. What team has three players that match up with Breanna, Morgan and Natalie? Also, Natalie is a great rebounder and defender, and she will keep Breanna from taking a physical pounding inside. Besides, it's not like UConn's going to worry about another team going small. How will they defend those three? Gabby might be first off the bench, but that all depends on Napheesa. Gabby, Napheesa and Katie Lou will get meaningful minutes, which translates into an eleventh National Championship. Nobody can match UConn's depth. Next year the starting five could be: Morgan, Kia, Natalie, Napheesa and Katie Lou with Gabby first off the bench.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Hey Rock - I am not brave on this, just a different perspective.
1. Butler starts and I see her as a Dolson style center. Butler is a good rebounder and can outlet pass so the "fast pace" offense can continue.
2. Gabby will be 6th man in. Of course, Collier is so good it could be a battle for that spot.
3. You nailed the description of Chong. I can see it now in my mind's eye. However, Courtney is not fast enough to fill the point and is questionable at the two guard. Chong will be the first guard in. Courtney had a revelation this past summer that she said in an article that I read on the BY. She came to the conclusion that she will just do her best and let the chips fall where they may. She is a great teammate, a nice person, and really-really enjoys the whole UConn experience. Nevertheless, Lou showed last week that she is the best shooter on the bench and at 6'3" will be hard to guard. Lou gets all the time relegated to "we need a shooter in there."

Of course, just MHO--but I like the banter.

As the man said ---No guts no glory!! I accept your projection of Butler. Gabby will have to improve over last year--but that should happen. Chong--Geno, has stated many times over the years that he works harder, by design, with Frosh, Sophs --juniors less--Seniors are on their own, pretty much. Courtney---hopefully she'll finally get a chance to show her stuff, whatever that is currently. My take is Collier and KLS shall have many opportunities to take time away from both Chong and Courtney, maybe even Gabby (hope not)

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Just think Olympic team for the way this unfolds - 4 minute mark there are 4 subs in and four out and the speed increases, then 8 minute mark there are another three subs in and three out, and it gets even faster. Short break between quarters and we start the process over with a few variations, big break for half time and it starts over again, 8 minutes into the second half the other team's trainer has broken out the oxygen tanks, and a few players are receiving IVs for rehydration, scorer is receiving treatments for carpel-tunnel, and the opposing coach has their psychiatrist on the phone and a 'deer-in-the-headlights' stare on their face.
Meanwhile Geno has benched two of his starters after they screwed up a fast break and had a brain fart at the defensive end - and has called a time-out to have a little 'conversation' with his point guard because while she has 10 assist, 5 steals, and is shooting 8-10 from the field with three 3 pointers, has just failed to get the team into the right offensive set as she is extracting herself from the photographers at the other end of the court after a brilliant block. he 'politely' reminds her 'EVERYTHING that happens on the court is you responsibility!'

(and then I wake up from my daydream! )

I'll have a double of what he's drinking! Great fun read UcM.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

You are right. However I would like to believe that great minds eventually come to think alike after respectful debate and thoughtful consideration of issues. Issues brought about because of boldly broached topics that might not surface if one felt alone with their respective opinions.
In this case, one is prompted to harken back to a statement made by Coach Auriemma prior to the national semifinal against Stanford in 2009 relating to how Stanford is perceived. There are a number of individual attributes that are not readily observable. When forming opinions of these difficult to discern attributes, it is important that our conclusions are not shaded by personal preconceptions. Otherwise it is not a fair conclusion.

Ah, come on VAUC, where is the fun in objectivity and rational discourse! I usually am unshakeable in my preconceived notions.

 

[Monte]

For you to use last years statistics is silly. She was playing off a bum foot and never had a chance to get healthy and get her rhythm. Geno happens to think that Ekmark is a STELLAR shooter and obviously the numbers from last year don't point to that. Maybe Geno is an IDIOT! I think not, it has to do with her foot injury and if you don't have a good platform, your shooting is going to be very adversely affected. Even when Chong was hitting shots last year, it seems most of them were rattling in rather than swish shots! That suggests that her stroke isn't that of an exceptional shooter, like KML and KLS and a whole bunch of other skilled shooters. I feel Ekmark, healthy, has that type stroke and Geno has said previously her shooting skills are exceptional!

Are you saying that Geno was playing Ekmark with a bad foot? Do you think she worked out and practiced, and shot when she was cleared to do so?

 

[VAUConnFan]

I think KLS came here to be the best player she could be. If she had gone to Stanford with her sisters she would not have reached the level she could reach here. Geno will challenge her to be better every day. That is why she is here, to take everything that the couches know and become the best player she can.

Stanford, in the last four years, has produced two WNBA Number 1 draft choices, both of whom went on to become Rookie of the Year. Candice Wiggins was the 2008 Wade Trophy winner. Which is to say that Ms Samuelson would have fared well regardless of where she chose to matriculate and play her college ball.

 

[CocoHusky]

As we volley back and forth with these level 1 predictions, why not also try on our big boy and big girl pants and take a shot at some level 2 predictions. Yes, it's going to be one hell of 2015/2016 concluding and celebrated with with another national championship, but how about who starts in 16/17?

I also will stick my neck out and go with Morgan, Kia, Natalie ...and two others.

We need a guard (Kia will probably be on the point) and a forward. Who's up for level 2?

I'm game!
C Butler
PF Cox
SF Collier
SG KLS
PG Nurse

 

[hoophuskee]

I profess no inside knowledge, just a sense of where things are heading based on past performances, descriptions of newcomers, and several years of enjoying Geno's approach to the game. That said, I stick my neck out with three predictions:

1. Gabby will start over Natalie, regardless of Butler's health. The former produced impressive and remarkably efficient stats last season. She is a proven rebounder and a high percentage shooter who creates mismatches on the offensive end. Most importantly, she has the quickness to guard opponents on the perimeter. Most of our opponents are likely to attempt to counter our strength by going small, so having 3 bigs on the floor won't always be the best strategy.

1-- I don't agree with those that suggest UCONN can't fastbreak - and they need to be more like 2014 team. The Lakers had Showtime in which Abdul-Jabbar was their starting center. Juts because a team doesn't have a superior "trailer" doesn't mean they can't run very, very, very, very effectively. YOU can run very, very, very, very well when you have the best backcourt in America.

2--- Sure sometimes things won't go UCONN's way for every single second. These are kids. SO yes - there will be a rare game a team is playing in which all five of the players can drill 3's and handle the ball. Do you know how hard that is and how tremendous that team has to be? Our opponents are not professionals either. You're not going to alter your entire starting lineup for the entire season because there may be ONE GAME a team can expose your big lineup. If things don't work out in the 1st five minutes, the solution is simple. Limit the minutes of the big lineup.

3--- I read every now and then someone will refer to UCONN/Geno will "mix-and-match." Huh? Maybe a game or two. Something highly unusual. The fact is, teams have to mix-and-match to UCONN. NOT the other way around when we are this good. If we're an underdog - or even - sure. Thus if teams go small, our first option is to use our supreme backcourt of the best pg in America and super-soph Kia Nurse to run the ball down the other team's throat EVEN WHEN Butler is in. If fastbreak isn't there - they WILL pound the paint. That's what it MEANS to have the best backcourt in America with such great scorers inside and now with overall super-size. THE HAVE TO DEFEND UCONN TOO.

4--- Too much is made of KLS's defense. Sure she isn't going to be an all-american her frosh year BUT that's not going to be her role. Geno will tear into her - as he does with any player. But Geno doesn't blindly forget about offense and shooting. He has always valued offense and shooting too. If it was all about defense Kiah Stokes would have averaged over 30 minutes, KML would have played quite a bit less and Ketia Swanier would have seen much more time than Mel Thomas. He wants hustle though. The kid KLS is going to be terrific. Her size and shooting is too special in that it makes other players better. And as for defense- the game isn't one-on-one-- there are four other defenders who help one another.

 

[donalddoowop]

Stanford, in the last four years, has produced two WNBA Number 1 draft choices, both of whom went on to become Rookie of the Year. Candice Wiggins was the 2008 Wade Trophy winner. Which is to say that Ms Samuelson would have fared well regardless of where she chose to matriculate and play her college ball.

One of her sisters was a HSAA and did not develop at Stanford as even an above average all around player. I watched a number of Stanford games in her junior year in which she did not start. I don't think KLS would have reached her full potential at Stanford or any other school.

 

[Bayareahusky]

I see Natalie as being in the center spot, and as PhillyCoach also says..... to take up the Dolson style..... sort of..... she will pass well though not as well as Dolson at this point..... but she has great skill and is too much of a classic center not to put in the lineup....

I also see much playing time and more substitutions ...... with Geno utilizing more of his bench..... than has been the case for the last several years..... I do not see a box score limited to 6 or 7, with the likes of Gabby, KLS, Collier, and others..... this team is deeper than it has been in recent memory.

 

[UcMiami]

One of her sisters was a HSAA and did not develop at Stanford as even an above average all around player. I watched a number of Stanford games in her junior year in which she did not start. I don't think KLS would have reached her full potential at Stanford or any other school.

Lou by every report I have read out of California is easily the most talented of the three sisters with the greatest upside, so doing a comparison between her future development at CT and her sibling's developments at Stanford is not really fair.

 

[VAUConnFan]

One of her sisters was a HSAA and did not develop at Stanford as even an above average all around player. I watched a number of Stanford games in her junior year in which she did not start. I don't think KLS would have reached her full potential at Stanford or any other school.

So, you are suggesting that there have never been highly touted high school basketball players who have come to UConn and not develop to their full potential? That Coach Auriemma and his wonderful staff have a 100% success rate with top talent? That Stanford's run of consecutive Final Fours was the result of overachieving players who were not really developing as college athletes?

 

[donalddoowop]

So, you are suggesting that there have never been highly touted high school basketball players who have come to UConn and not develop to their full potential? That Coach Auriemma and his wonderful staff have a 100% success rate with top talent? That Stanford's run of consecutive Final Fours was the result of overachieving players who were not really developing as college athletes?

No, you misunderstand. I'm responding to your post where you stated KLS would have fared well regardless of where she chose to play. I pointed out that one of her sisters was a hsaa and did not fare all that well at Stanford. I know people say KLS has more talent than either sister, but that does not mean the sisters could not have developed into better players than they have. That's why KLS came to UCONN, to get the opportunity to be the best that she can be. Geno has taken players who were not highly touted and made them into outstanding players. I believe all of the top talent that has stayed at UCONN have reached their potential and sometimes more. I was pointing out that some highly ranked high school players who went to Stanford did not develop as much as expected. I have not seen recently any over achieving players at Stanford. I don't see how you came up with your misinterpretation of what I wrote. I thought I was very clear.

 

[UcMiami]

No, you misunderstand. I'm responding to your post where you stated KLS would have fared well regardless of where she chose to play. I pointed out that one of her sisters was a hsaa and did not fare all that well at Stanford. I know people say KLS has more talent than either sister, but that does not mean the sisters could not have developed into better players than they have. That's why KLS came to UCONN, to get the opportunity to be the best that she can be. Geno has taken players who were not highly touted and made them into outstanding players. I believe all of the top talent that has stayed at UCONN have reached their potential and sometimes more. I was pointing out that some highly ranked high school players who went to Stanford did not develop as much as expected. I have not seen recently any over achieving players at Stanford. I don't see how you came up with your misinterpretation of what I wrote. I thought I was very clear.

I think two players stand out to me Kaili McLaren - who last I check is still playing professionally but did not perhaps reach her full potential, and my favorite Geno dog house denizen Charde who starred in a WNBA all star game. I know that some feel Kiah has also joined this list, and I suspect a few more of us will agree in a few years.

So no ... Uconn doesn't work for everyone that comes and stays, and I suspect a number of highly touted players were better for not accepting a scholarship.

 

[Gus Mahler]

UcMiami wrote:

"[T]here seems to be this love fest for Collier at the expense of Lou . . . "

Hoo boy, do I disagree with that. Considering what time frame? Difference in perceptions, I guess. Going back to early summer, it seemed like Lou had hired a publicist for this board. Collier seemed like a comparative afterthought till more recently.

In any event, as PhillyCoach says, they're both going to be special.

 

[huskyd]

As we volley back and forth with these level 1 predictions, why not also try on our big boy and big girl pants and take a shot at some level 2 predictions. Yes, it's going to be one hell of 2015/2016 concluding and celebrated with with another national championship, but how about who starts in 16/17?

I also will stick my neck out and go with Morgan, Kia, Natalie ...and two others.

We need a guard (Kia will probably be on the point) and a forward. Who's up for level 2?

Java, this is a headache we don't need, BUT, let's play. Need to replace Stewart (not possible?) and Mo (same question). Kia stays at the 2 with Crystal D. at point. Stewart and Tuck on the wings, either Butler or Lauren Cox under the hoop (both true centers). In the unlikely case that Cox blunders and goes to another team, we may be looking at a Stef Dolson set up with Butler as Stef. I think that Collier's day will come when Tuck leaves. Gabby subs and Courtney starts the high 5's.

 

[watanabe]

Do you think any of the players actually read this board?

 

[DaddyChoc]

Do you think any of the players actually read this board?

former... dont think current

 

[donalddoowop]

Java, this is a headache we don't need, BUT, let's play. Need to replace Stewart (not possible?) and Mo (same question). Kia stays at the 2 with Crystal D. at point. Stewart and Tuck on the wings, either Butler or Lauren Cox under the hoop (both true centers). In the unlikely case that Cox blunders and goes to another team, we may be looking at a Stef Dolson set up with Butler as Stef. I think that Collier's day will come when Tuck leaves. Gabby subs and Courtney starts the high 5's.

You've got Stewart in there as a starter. She'll be gone. Did you mean KLS? I don't think Dangerfield will start before Gabby, not initially.

 

[huskyd]

You've got Stewart in there as a starter. She'll be gone. Did you mean KLS? I don't think Dangerfield will start before Gabby, not initially.

Thanks for catching that. As for Gabby v. Dangerfield, I doubt they'll be in competition for the same job. Crystal is a point guard. Part of the reason that Geno converted Gabby last year is that he needed some help under the hoop, and she can jump to the moon. But she has no shooting range (not even from the foul line). I believe that's another reason Coach put her inside. Molly Bent is coming in with Crystal, and the year after Andra shows up. We'll have guards aplenty. Anyway, it's fun to speculate; we'll know more soon.

 

[donalddoowop]

It is really puzzling that Gabby ranked so high as a guard in high school even though she had such limited shooting range. I had no idea. I thought she was a very accurate outside shooter. With all the inside help UCONN has now she will need to develop a mid range game. She did not play much against SC because they were so big and the same thing may happen against other big teams this season, unless she changes to the guard position.

 

[VAUConnFan]

No, you misunderstand. I'm responding to your post where you stated KLS would have fared well regardless of where she chose to play. I pointed out that one of her sisters was a hsaa and did not fare all that well at Stanford. I know people say KLS has more talent than either sister, but that does not mean the sisters could not have developed into better players than they have. That's why KLS came to UCONN, to get the opportunity to be the best that she can be. Geno has taken players who were not highly touted and made them into outstanding players. I believe all of the top talent that has stayed at UCONN have reached their potential and sometimes more. I was pointing out that some highly ranked high school players who went to Stanford did not develop as much as expected. I have not seen recently any over achieving players at Stanford. I don't see how you came up with your misinterpretation of what I wrote. I thought I was very clear.

Definitely no misunderstanding. There have been at least 2 Number 1 high school recruits who matriculated at UConn and are not on The Wall. there have been others who did not pan out according to the HS numbers. Whether that is the result of coaching, offensive system, personal motivation, injuries... One never knows. Or just maybe, the rating services just totally got it wrong. As far as players who have come to UConn unheralded and become outstanding ballplayers, that would certainly hold true for the likes of Maria Conlon. Are there others you could add? Stefanie Dolson, IIRC, came with a wide disparity of rankings but one of the services had her Top 25, and she was no worse than the 2nd best center; IMO, the most improved player from freshman to senior year that Coach Auriemma ever coached. She was needed right away and responded admirably. One might also think of Kara Wolters whom I do not recall as a freshman, but was part of, arguably one of the three best front courts at UConn. How she left UConn without grabbing 1000 rebounds astounds me.

 

[UcMiami]

Definitely no misunderstanding. There have been at least 2 Number 1 high school recruits who matriculated at UConn and are not on The Wall. there have been others who did not pan out according to the HS numbers. Whether that is the result of coaching, offensive system, personal motivation, injuries... One never knows. Or just maybe, the rating services just totally got it wrong. As far as players who have come to UConn unheralded and become outstanding ballplayers, that would certainly hold true for the likes of Maria Conlon. Are there others you could add? Stefanie Dolson, IIRC, came with a wide disparity of rankings but one of the services had her Top 25, and she was no worse than the 2nd best center; IMO, the most improved player from freshman to senior year that Coach Auriemma ever coached. She was needed right away and responded admirably. One might also think of Kara Wolters whom I do not recall as a freshman, but was part of, arguably one of the three best front courts at UConn. How she left UConn without grabbing 1000 rebounds astounds me.

Being on the wall at Uconn is not a very good criteria for determining development for a few reasons -
1. It is a voted on award, and that makes it to some degree a popularity contest.
2. Team make-up and team success has a significant effect on individual results and accolades
3. The national talent pool and individual seasons of that pool can influence the award - we are talking about 10 recipients out of 3500+ D1 participants each year - some of it is luck.
4. At Uconn their have often been 3 or more players capable of being an AA on the same team - that prohibits some of those players from consideration and may lessen the chance for others.

There are some great Uconn players who never made the wall. Looking at the TASSK force class - they played three of four years with two great players who arrived before them and their last two years with the GOAT DT. Great players like Williams, Jones, and Cash were extremely limited in the minutes they played throughout their careers because of the other talent on the team - their stats were not competitive on a national level because they were maying a third or a half less minutes than others in the conversation. Their development and skill level was clearly identified in their WNBA draft position. As another example, it is quite possible that Tuck could fail to be voted a first team AA through four years of her college career though a lot of people felt she should have made it last year - this year she doesn't have as much competition on her own team, but with some great forwards around the country the competition for inclusion this year will be fierce again, and the team make up will likely keep her minutes more limited than those of many of her national 'competition' for votes.

Just a question - I can think of Ann Strother and I think Tamika Williams as the two #1s not on the wall individually, though both are represented twice for their teams of which they were certainly integral parts. Are those the two you were thinking of?

 

[VAUConnFan]

Just a question - I can think of Ann Strother and I think Tamika Williams as the two #1s not on the wall individually, though both are represented twice for their teams of which they were certainly integral parts. Are those the two you were thinking of?

Yes.

 

[ladybears4eva]

Java, this is a headache we don't need, BUT, let's play. Need to replace Stewart (not possible?) and Mo (same question). Kia stays at the 2 with Crystal D. at point. Stewart and Tuck on the wings, either Butler or Lauren Cox under the hoop (both true centers). In the unlikely case that Cox blunders and goes to another team, we may be looking at a Stef Dolson set up with Butler as Stef. I think that Collier's day will come when Tuck leaves. Gabby subs and Courtney starts the high 5's.

Guess the unlikely blunder happened

 

[DaddyChoc]

Guess the unlikely blunder happened

hey hey hey... not so fast