The path to a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament

[shizzle787]

Only five times since 1979 has a team won the NCAA tournament as a #4 seed or worse. Of course, we did it in 2014, but it is unlikely to happen. Therefore, it is imperative to get at least a #3 seed.
We are 18-6. IMO, we need two more wins to clinch a berth in the NCAA tournament. IMO, it is imperative that we get a #3 seed not only to make a deep run but to avoid a loss in the first round. If we are a 4 seed or worse we will lose in the first round. Hurley doesn't do well when the other team has time to scout. Our two biggest wins (Iowa State and Alabama) were in a tournament setting where the opponent didn't even know if they were going to play us 20 hours before. I think Hurley will do better in the second game of a weekend than the first due to this issue. This is why it is critical to get a #3 seed. Even with scouting, a 14 seed likely won't have the guns to keep up (we are talking a Patriot, Big Sky, Horizon type team). If we land a 4 or 5 seed, we run a legitimate risk of running into an FAU, Charleston, or MVC or Southern champ. Bad news.

Here is the path IMO to a top 3 seed:
5-2 the rest of the regular season + BET championship (26-8)
6-1 the rest of the regular season + BET finalist (26-8)
7-0 the rest of the regular season + BET semifinalist or BET quarterfinalist (26-7 or 25-7)

This week is critical for this mission. 2-0 gives us a legitimate chance.

 

[McLovin]

Win 2/3 out of Marquette, Creighton and PC + win the other 4 games + 1 win in the BET vs a top 4 seed should give us a 3 seed.

I do not agree with your assessment that we will lose as a 4 seed or worse simply because the opponent will “out scout” us.

We beat Oregon, won at Florida and beat OSU all handily when they had plenty of time to scout us out (quality teams who are 52, 39 and 29 in the KenPom, respectively).

Our loss last year to NMSU was not a scouting issue. It was the fact that some guy played the game of his life and dropped 40 on us.

 

[slepers]

Only five times since 1979 has a team won the NCAA tournament as a #4 seed or worse. Of course, we did it in 2014, but it is unlikely to happen. Therefore, it is imperative to get at least a #3 seed.
We are 18-6. IMO, we need two more wins to clinch a berth in the NCAA tournament. IMO, it is imperative that we get a #3 seed not only to make a deep run but to avoid a loss in the first round. If we are a 4 seed or worse we will lose in the first round. Hurley doesn't do well when the other team has time to scout. Our two biggest wins (Iowa State and Alabama) were in a tournament setting where the opponent didn't even know if they were going to play us 20 hours before. I think Hurley will do better in the second game of a weekend than the first due to this issue. This is why it is critical to get a #3 seed. Even with scouting, a 14 seed likely won't have the guns to keep up (we are talking a Patriot, Big Sky, Horizon type team). If we land a 4 or 5 seed, we run a legitimate risk of running into an FAU, Charleston, or MVC or Southern champ. Bad news.

Here is the path IMO to a top 3 seed:
5-2 the rest of the regular season + BET championship (26-8)
6-1 the rest of the regular season + BET finalist (26-8)
7-0 the rest of the regular season + BET semifinalist or BET quarterfinalist (26-7 or 25-7)

This week is critical for this mission. 2-0 gives us a legitimate chance.

Your disdain for Hurley is comical,please try a new tact.

 

[Hankster]

Win 2/3 out of Marquette, Creighton and PC + win the other 4 games + 1 win in the BET vs a top 4 seed should give us a 3 seed.

I do not agree with your assessment that we will lose as a 4 seed or worse simply because the opponent will “out scout” us.

We beat Oregon, won at Florida and beat OSU all handily when they had plenty of time to scout us out (quality teams who are 52, 39 and 29 in the KenPom, respectively).

Our loss last year to NMSU was not a scouting issue. It was the fact that some guy played the game of his life and dropped 40 on us.

I remember that game clearly. He was making threes left and right. Off Balance, NBA threes. Tightly guarded.

 

[mauconnfan]

Win 2/3 out of Marquette, Creighton and PC + win the other 4 games + 1 win in the BET vs a top 4 seed should give us a 3 seed.

I do not agree with your assessment that we will lose as a 4 seed or worse simply because the opponent will “out scout” us.

We beat Oregon, won at Florida and beat OSU all handily when they had plenty of time to scout us out (quality teams who are 52, 39 and 29 in the KenPom, respectively).

Our loss last year to NMSU was not a scouting issue. It was the fact that some guy played the game of his life and dropped 40 on us.

Thinking 5-2 in the next 7 and a couple wins in the BE you're looking at a 25-9 BE team should be a 3 worst case 4. But this is a big ask by the way, but it's a good time for them to prove something.

 

[McLovin]

Thinking 5-2 in the next 7 and a couple wins in the BE you're looking at a 25-9 BE team should be a 3 worst case 4. But this is a big ask by the way, but it's a good time for them to prove something.

Also agree this is another path to a 3 seed.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Recording with Lunardi tonight for CT Scoreboard Podcast. I'll make sure we discuss this path to a 3. If anyone has any other questions drop them here and I'll try to get to them

 

[Hurleyman216]

Recording with Lunardi tonight for CT Scoreboard Podcast. I'll make sure we discuss this path to a 3. If anyone has any other questions drop them here and I'll try to get to them

Ask him if Houston is a lock or if he has them in the “should be in” category…lol

 

[McLovin]

Recording with Lunardi tonight for CT Scoreboard Podcast. I'll make sure we discuss this path to a 3. If anyone has any other questions drop them here and I'll try to get to them

What’s UConn’s likelihood of getting placed in the east regional if they aren’t a 1 or 2 seed (like… if they end up getting a 3 seed).

 

[auror]

Recording with Lunardi tonight for CT Scoreboard Podcast. I'll make sure we discuss this path to a 3. If anyone has any other questions drop them here and I'll try to get to them

UConn has broken the computers due to their non conference margin of victories. Will the committee side with the NET and predictive metrics or seed based on the general perception of the team (closer to the ap poll ranking).

 

[Umami Zen]

Recording with Lunardi tonight for CT Scoreboard Podcast. I'll make sure we discuss this path to a 3. If anyone has any other questions drop them here and I'll try to get to them

Does he see BE being a 5 bid league this year??

 

[Hi-Low]

Ask him if Houston is a lock or if he has them in the “should be in” category…lol

I think shizzle locked Houston after Temple win

 

[PNolanFan]

Does he see BE being a 5 bid league this year??

I think we have to be 5 bid league and honestly if seton hall closes strong i think it could get to 6

 

[shizzle787]

The next three games are HUGE. If we go 3-0, I think we sweep the rest of the regular season.

 

[shizzle787]

Now that the committee has informed us we are a #5 seed if the tournament started today, we have an idea of what we need to do. This IMO falls in line with what I described above.

If we go 4-0 to finish the regular season and get to the BET championship game, I think we will get into the top-12 (a three seed). That would mean we would have three additional wins against top-5 teams in the league.

If we fail to beat Providence, our only hope is winning out the rest of the way until Selection Sunday.

 

[Stinger92860]

Unless we win out through the BET, I think a 3 seed is out of the question.

 

[ucp990411]

One at a time

 

[CTBasketball]

Now that the committee has informed us we are a #5 seed if the tournament started today, we have an idea of what we need to do. This IMO falls in line with what I described above.

If we go 4-0 to finish the regular season and get to the BET championship game, I think we will get into the top-12 (a three seed). That would mean we would have three additional wins against top-5 teams in the league.

If we fail to beat Providence, our only hope is winning out the rest of the way until Selection Sunday.

There is less emphasis placed on conference tournament games to affect seeding. Win out and hope for chaos at the top.

 

[KingAG]

Unless we win out through the BET, I think a 3 seed is out of the question.

Win out BE final imo. Win the tournament? We might be in convo for a 2. That’d be a 8 game win streak with wins over 4 top 25 teams

 

[SubbaBub]

Need to win out heading to MSG. If we go 1-1 vs the other top teams we could be a 4 seed depending on what else happens. Make the final and a 4 is a lock. Win by beating 3 of the other top seeds and we could end up with a 3 seed. Bomb out in any these next 3 games or lose the first BET game and its 5/6 territory.

 

[Shamon30]

Imagine if we lose to FAU via a Jalen Gaffney 3 at the buzzer. Things would get crazy.

 

[Billy Jack]

Only five times since 1979 has a team won the NCAA tournament as a #4 seed or worse. Of course, we did it in 2014, but it is unlikely to happen. Therefore, it is imperative to get at least a #3 seed.
We are 18-6. IMO, we need two more wins to clinch a berth in the NCAA tournament. IMO, it is imperative that we get a #3 seed not only to make a deep run but to avoid a loss in the first round. If we are a 4 seed or worse we will lose in the first round. Hurley doesn't do well when the other team has time to scout. Our two biggest wins (Iowa State and Alabama) were in a tournament setting where the opponent didn't even know if they were going to play us 20 hours before. I think Hurley will do better in the second game of a weekend than the first due to this issue. This is why it is critical to get a #3 seed. Even with scouting, a 14 seed likely won't have the guns to keep up (we are talking a Patriot, Big Sky, Horizon type team). If we land a 4 or 5 seed, we run a legitimate risk of running into an FAU, Charleston, or MVC or Southern champ. Bad news.

Here is the path IMO to a top 3 seed:
5-2 the rest of the regular season + BET championship (26-8)
6-1 the rest of the regular season + BET finalist (26-8)
7-0 the rest of the regular season + BET semifinalist or BET quarterfinalist (26-7 or 25-7)

This week is critical for this mission. 2-0 gives us a legitimate chance.

Classic case of correlation without causation.

 

[gtcam]

Ask him if Houston is a lock or if he has them in the “should be in” category…lol

If Houston isnt a lock after beating Memphis tonight something smells funny

 

[gtcam]

Win 2/3 out of Marquette, Creighton and PC + win the other 4 games + 1 win in the BET vs a top 4 seed should give us a 3 seed.

I do not agree with your assessment that we will lose as a 4 seed or worse simply because the opponent will “out scout” us.

We beat Oregon, won at Florida and beat OSU all handily when they had plenty of time to scout us out (quality teams who are 52, 39 and 29 in the KenPom, respectively).

Our loss last year to NMSU was not a scouting issue. It was the fact that some guy played the game of his life and dropped 40 on us.

and no adjustments made by the coaching staff

 

[ucp990411]

Imagine if we lose to FAU via a Jalen Gaffney 3 at the buzzer. Things would get crazy.

I prefer to imagine what it would be like if we end the season just like we started the season - with a 14 game winning streak. We have the first one.

 

[JB75]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

 

[HuskyHawk]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

The PC game is critical. Can't lose any more home games. But take care of business and we move into the top 16 easily. A lot of those teams ahead of us are going to lose, or already lost since the reveal.

 

[Rico444]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

At this point, instead of just looking at what our resume would be, you also have to look at the teams ahead of us. We know there are 16 teams ahead of us right now - - even if we win out, can we pass 9 teams? A few of those teams we probably have no chance of passing unless they completely collapse (Purdue, Houston, Bama, Kansas at the very least) so that doesn't leave very many spots if we want a 2. Especially when you factor in that some of those teams are in the Big 12 and most of their potential losses would be to each other and probably wouldn't affect their resume all that much.

I think we can sneak into a 3 if we win out but I don't think a 2 is realistic. You have to factor in that despite our strong metrics, the committee said that wasn't good enough for a top 4 seed, so we know they don't value our resume as much as we thought they might.

 

[Get a Job]

At this point, instead of just looking at what our resume would be, you also have to look at the teams ahead of us. We know there are 16 teams ahead of us right now - - even if we win out, can we pass 9 teams? A few of those teams we probably have no chance of passing unless they completely collapse (Purdue, Houston, Bama, Kansas at the very least) so that doesn't leave very many spots if we want a 2. Especially when you factor in that some of those teams are in the Big 12 and most of their potential losses would be to each other and probably wouldn't affect their resume all that much.

I think we can sneak into a 3 if we win out but I don't think a 2 is realistic. You have to factor in that despite our strong metrics, the committee said that wasn't good enough for a top 4 seed, so we know they don't value our resume as much as we thought they might.

Technically we know that there are at least 16 teams ahead of us. If the "next 4" were given in order, then there are actually 19 teams ahead of us. We'd need to go from 20th to 8th to get a 2-seed. I agree with you that this seems unlikely. Passing 8 teams to get to 12th, however, seems totally plausible if UConn wins out (albeit a gigantic if).

 

[Matt1010]

Technically we know that there are at least 16 teams ahead of us. If the "next 4" were given in order, then there are actually 19 teams ahead of us. We'd need to go from 20th to 8th to get a 2-seed. I agree with you that this seems unlikely. Passing 8 teams to get to 12th, however, seems totally plausible if UConn wins out (albeit a gigantic if).

The next 4 were not given in ranked order, it was alphabetical.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but I think we have a very good shot at a 2 seed if we win out. That would put us at 27-7 including another 3-4 wins over ranked teams. A decent amount of the teams ahead of us still play each other and will lose 2+ games down the stretch. There's plenty of opportunity for a big jump, but let's start with PC on Wednesday.