The path to a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament

[JB75]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

 

[HuskyHawk]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

The PC game is critical. Can't lose any more home games. But take care of business and we move into the top 16 easily. A lot of those teams ahead of us are going to lose, or already lost since the reveal.

 

[Rico444]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

At this point, instead of just looking at what our resume would be, you also have to look at the teams ahead of us. We know there are 16 teams ahead of us right now - - even if we win out, can we pass 9 teams? A few of those teams we probably have no chance of passing unless they completely collapse (Purdue, Houston, Bama, Kansas at the very least) so that doesn't leave very many spots if we want a 2. Especially when you factor in that some of those teams are in the Big 12 and most of their potential losses would be to each other and probably wouldn't affect their resume all that much.

I think we can sneak into a 3 if we win out but I don't think a 2 is realistic. You have to factor in that despite our strong metrics, the committee said that wasn't good enough for a top 4 seed, so we know they don't value our resume as much as we thought they might.

 

[Get a Job]

At this point, instead of just looking at what our resume would be, you also have to look at the teams ahead of us. We know there are 16 teams ahead of us right now - - even if we win out, can we pass 9 teams? A few of those teams we probably have no chance of passing unless they completely collapse (Purdue, Houston, Bama, Kansas at the very least) so that doesn't leave very many spots if we want a 2. Especially when you factor in that some of those teams are in the Big 12 and most of their potential losses would be to each other and probably wouldn't affect their resume all that much.

I think we can sneak into a 3 if we win out but I don't think a 2 is realistic. You have to factor in that despite our strong metrics, the committee said that wasn't good enough for a top 4 seed, so we know they don't value our resume as much as we thought they might.

Technically we know that there are at least 16 teams ahead of us. If the "next 4" were given in order, then there are actually 19 teams ahead of us. We'd need to go from 20th to 8th to get a 2-seed. I agree with you that this seems unlikely. Passing 8 teams to get to 12th, however, seems totally plausible if UConn wins out (albeit a gigantic if).

 

[Matt1010]

Technically we know that there are at least 16 teams ahead of us. If the "next 4" were given in order, then there are actually 19 teams ahead of us. We'd need to go from 20th to 8th to get a 2-seed. I agree with you that this seems unlikely. Passing 8 teams to get to 12th, however, seems totally plausible if UConn wins out (albeit a gigantic if).

The next 4 were not given in ranked order, it was alphabetical.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but I think we have a very good shot at a 2 seed if we win out. That would put us at 27-7 including another 3-4 wins over ranked teams. A decent amount of the teams ahead of us still play each other and will lose 2+ games down the stretch. There's plenty of opportunity for a big jump, but let's start with PC on Wednesday.

 

[Austin316]

We have an advantage going into the tournament regardless of the outcome of the season coming ti a close. Even if we end up as a 5 seed which is likely most of the country is going to have UConn as the favorite to win it but there is so much strength for all 5 seeds with a bye.

If we win the BET we are a lock for a 2 or 3. If we win out (27-7) it’s possible we could get a 1 with so many teams losing and how many teams are ranked in the big east. Our ranking could fly up.

 

[auror]

If we are a borderline 5/4 seed as of this am - and win the rest of our games and lose in big east final that will put us on the strongest 3/maybe weakest 2 seed line. Plus our net is pretty high and will only get higher if don’t lose again till mid march. Don’t forget, every other big team has gone thru a rough patch too recently We win out we are absolutely a 2 seed. Let’s beat Providence first and we can really talk about seeding. I wasn’t pleased with there performance on Saturday

We don't move in a vacuum. Other teams have more opportunities to add quality wins. It'll look good to the committee that we're back to our winning ways, so they'd be more likely to consider our predictive metrics as legit and not fraudulent, but with a BET final loss we'd be around 9-7 in Quad 1, which is extremely unlikely to get a 2 seed.

 

[wheelerdog]

Imagine if we lose to FAU via a Jalen Gaffney 3 at the buzzer. Things would get crazy.

Imagine if we win the crown.

 

[wheelerdog]

We all learned last year that a 5 seed can be trouble. Excluding last year, the 5 had gone out in the first round 51 times, whereas the 4 has been beaten 31 times. I think we were a 4 in 2008.

Calhoun always always said that to advance in the tournament you need a high seed. Beat PC Wednesday and keep moving up.

 

[JB75]

At this point, instead of just looking at what our resume would be, you also have to look at the teams ahead of us. We know there are 16 teams ahead of us right now - - even if we win out, can we pass 9 teams? A few of those teams we probably have no chance of passing unless they completely collapse (Purdue, Houston, Bama, Kansas at the very least) so that doesn't leave very many spots if we want a 2. Especially when you factor in that some of those teams are in the Big 12 and most of their potential losses would be to each other and probably wouldn't affect their resume all that much.

I think we can sneak into a 3 if we win out but I don't think a 2 is realistic. You have to factor in that despite our strong metrics, the committee said that wasn't good enough for a top 4 seed, so we know they don't value our resume as much as we thought they might.

Mostly agree but we’ve seen all the big boys get knocked off recently and it’s only going to get crazier. 2 weeks left plus the conference tourneys. More than enough time to close the gap from our 18 slot to a 10-9 ranking. I mean it’s fun to talk about but we win both games this week we probably slide up to 14/15 then win our final 2 and prolly looking like top 12 ish in the country going into conference tourneys. Then crack top 10 from there. That’s deff top 3 seed. Maybe 2 seed. Cud happen.

 

[Shamon30]

Imagine if we win the crown.

That would be preferable

 

[JohnFSilver]

Technically we know that there are at least 16 teams ahead of us. If the "next 4" were given in order, then there are actually 19 teams ahead of us. We'd need to go from 20th to 8th to get a 2-seed. I agree with you that this seems unlikely. Passing 8 teams to get to 12th, however, seems totally plausible if UConn wins out (albeit a gigantic if).

Got to win out to get a 2 seed. But is there really a difference between a low 2, and a high 3?

Huskies have won national title as a 3 seed, bounced out in second round as a 2.

 

[Matt1010]

Got to win out to get a 2 seed. But is there really a difference between a low 2, and a high 3?

Huskies have won national title as a 3 seed, bounced out in second round as a 2.

The overall tournament records of 2 seeds is (385-165) 70.0% and 3 seeds is (296-167) 63.9%. First round win percentage is 93% compared to 85%.

It definitely makes a fairly substantial difference, but certainly possible to go on a run from either seed.

 

[PAHusky]

Seems fairly straightforward at this point, no?
Win the rest of our games, including BET, probably a 2.
Win the rest of our games, make the finals of the BET, probably a 3.
Lose one more and BET semis, 4 or 5.
Any bad loses/early exit from BET, likely a 5 or 6.
7 means the wheels came off.

 

[05Alum]

It would be really interesting, and fun to watch, if down the road they did a mock selection of the entire tournament, say one week or so after the super bowl. Similar to how they do in football, but due to so many teams obviously not done every week. The assumption would be at that point that the conference leader at the time of the mock would be the automatic qualifier. It would be, if nothing else, a great way to generate interest, and another data point for us to trash Syracuse.