OT: - The Masters | Page 2 | The Boneyard

OT: The Masters

JimCtheGOAT said:
And you sound like an idiot. “Shut up, You sound like a nerd and a loser”. Who even says that?? What are you 5 years old? What a burnnnn.

Please keep enlightening us with your prediction posts where you pick every top guy there is. What would we possibly do without them?
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Just like I thought. You don’t want a match.
 
Who do you guys think will win the NBA finals this year? I think it will be a good team just not one of the top teams.

I placed bets on the Lakers, Nets, Bucks, Sixers, Jazz, and Clippers.

I also like Denver, Portland and Dallas. I could also see the Celtics or Pacers taking it down.

DM me your draft kings if you think you’re tough enough to take me on.
 
JimCtheGOAT said:
Who do you guys think will win the NBA finals this year? I think it will be a good team just not one of the top teams.

I placed bets on the Lakers, Nets, Bucks, Sixers, Jazz, and Clippers.

I also like Denver, Portland and Dallas. I could also see the Celtics or Pacers taking it down.

DM me your draft kings if you think you’re tough enough to take me on.
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Did you get more than 11-1 on each team?
 
LIuconn said:
www.golfwrx.com

The 23 players who can win the Masters

Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 20-25 players. Last year, Dustin Johnson was one of my 21...
www.golfwrx.com www.golfwrx.com

Interesting way to whittling down the field
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Valid method whittling down the field. I will say that Zalatoris kid is going to be a human ATM. Nice game overall. He's got to get a bit more accurate with the driver and putt better to win, but good iron players can cash top-15 checks week in and week out.

Will Zalatoris PGA TOUR Profile - News, Stats, and Videos

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I’ve been avoiding betting/rostering Zal since he stepped on the scene and I pay for it literally every week. This isn’t his week, but he will have success elsewhere soon.
 
The players were saying the greens are already starting to brown. Weather looks iffy. Fingers crossed it stays dry.

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jleves said:
You both can take it elsewhere. This will now go back to being about the Masters and any other posts will be deleted.
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Thank God. Going to be 70 on Friday so I may bust out my new Masters golf shirt.
 
Duncan Idaho said:
The players were saying the greens are already starting to brown. Weather looks iffy. Fingers crossed it stays dry.

.
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I think they are drying it out as much as possible because of probable rain Thursday night and Friday.

Phil was doing and interview and was saying how over the past decade the course has been soft due to weather for all but 2-3 years. When Augusta gets soft players can fly a ball to a specific distance to the green and stick it. Augusta's defense has always been flighting the ball at the right height from the right angle with the right spin to the right part of the green. Soft Augusta takes away some of the skill of doing all that.

Get it as dry and fast as possible and Thursday may be a blood bath (By Augusta standards, not US Open blood bath standards).

Also, as others have mentioned, they have elimanated the second rough on some holes which will promote letting balls roll through the grass and in to the pine straw. Not a fan of picking and choosing the rough on a hole by hole basis. Do it for all holes or none.
 
Bryson's swing from a different angle. Holy crap. How does he even keep it in the fairway? It will be interesting to see how he does at Augusta this time.

 
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Chin Diesel said:
I think they are drying it out as much as possible because of probable rain Thursday night and Friday.

Phil was doing and interview and was saying how over the past decade the course has been soft due to weather for all but 2-3 years. When Augusta gets soft players can fly a ball to a specific distance to the green and stick it. Augusta's defense has always been flighting the ball at the right height from the right angle with the right spin to the right part of the green. Soft Augusta takes away some of the skill of doing all that.

Get it as dry and fast as possible and Thursday may be a blood bath (By Augusta standards, not US Open blood bath standards).

Also, as others have mentioned, they have elimanated the second rough on some holes which will promote letting balls roll through the grass and in to the pine straw. Not a fan of picking and choosing the rough on a hole by hole basis. Do it for all holes or none.
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Thats what the former players turned broadcasters were talking about during Riviera. They all wanted to see the grass at tournaments to be cut down with very fast greens and complimentary use of pin placements.
 
OK - any last minute predictions?

I'm changing to Justin Thomas to win (not exactly a long shot) with Spieth being in the final group on Sunday.
 
jleves said:
OK - any last minute predictions?

I'm changing to Justin Thomas to win (not exactly a long shot) with Spieth being in the final group on Sunday.
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I don't expect a surprise name.

Super fast greens? I'll go DJ. If you can win a US Open at Oakmont, you can putt fast, hilly greens.
 
In one of those pools with a max spend, I took the following six:

DJ
Spieth
Rose
Oosthuizen
Sheffler
Cantlay

Feeling good about that group
 
Because of the speed/condition of the greens this year-- Hot putters/short game will be the deciding factor(s) leading up to and on Sunday.

For that reason I expect to see DJ/JT in the final group on Sunday.

I know--Boring choice.
 
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XLCenterFan said:
The fish have been taking Jordan, Tiger, and Phil for years at Augusta. I still can’t believe Tiger won 2 years ago. He was so far out of his prime, and Finau and Molinari completely choked. Those 3 are always under priced in the betting market. Never take them. Even if they win, you’re not getting the price for it to be a good bet.
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Those three won 8 of the last 20 masters and Spieth only played in 7 of them. Real fish...
 
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Masters betting seems pretty straight forward. Find a way only take people in the top 25 strokes gained on approach and you should be fine.
 
XLCenterFan said:
I’ve been avoiding betting/rostering Zal since he stepped on the scene and I pay for it literally every week. This isn’t his week, but he will have success elsewhere soon.
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I'm the opposite on Will Z. Taken him like 7 straight weeks in DFS. He's usually pretty "cheap" for someone who has been consistently performing.
 
Tuna said:
Those three won 8 of the last 20 masters and Spieth only played in 7 of them. Real fish...
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Anyone who rostered or bet any of those three last year is a fish. For this year, Spieth has recovered, but Phil should be avoided. And there’s people out there who still would have bet on Tiger this year, with a broken leg.

Their prices to win are always absurd and lower than they should be. Only a fish takes Tiger or Spieth at 10-1 when you can get Webb Simpson at 60-1 or Sungjae Im at 70-1.

I apologize if calling people a fish came off as an insult to your handle.
 
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I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it. It kind of feels like you need to handicap and bet it like horse racing, but I can’t create an exacta & trifecta box to supplement my win/place/show bets in golf.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Figured it was worth a shot.
 
Only pool I'm in is a Stableford scoring setup, 4 players picked from newcomers, past champs, US, Int'l. My roster is Zalatoris, DJ, Morikawa and Ancer. DJ was a last minute decision as I had Reed initially. And while it's early, DJ is disappointing.
 
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McLovin said:
I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it. It kind of feels like you need to handicap and bet it like horse racing, but I can’t create an exacta & trifecta box to supplement my win/place/show bets in golf.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Figured it was worth a shot.
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to win? Yeah should absolutely not bet golf.
 
McLovin said:
I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it. It kind of feels like you need to handicap and bet it like horse racing, but I can’t create an exacta & trifecta box to supplement my win/place/show bets in golf.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Figured it was worth a shot.
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Come on man. If you hate money that much I’ll just post my venmo and you can send me some.
 
Serious question. What strategy do y'all use to bet golf? Say you had $100 to bet, how do you distribute it?

Do you unload it all on one or a couple of guys to win? Do you spread it around on to win bets and top X finish bets?

Obviously I don't have a strategy (other than probably losing money - but come on Phil, make me money!).

Unlike betting other sports where the options are either/or (win/lose, over/under, cover the spread), golf has tons of outcomes you can bet on.

I'd assume betting only "to win" bets wouldn't be a long term winning strategy due to the variance of a large field and 4 day events, but maybe I'm wrong about that?

Edit: for example, someone posted an article about 23 guys who could win The Masters. Thats obviously a large number of possibilities. If you placed only win bets on all of them, you'd lose money on any who win that have odds less than 24-1 and would also lose if a dark horse not on that list wins it and you only placed win bets. How do you use a list of guys you like to place bets?
 
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McLovin said:
Serious question. What strategy do y'all use to bet golf? Say you had $100 to bet, how do you distribute it?

Do you unload it all on one or a couple of guys to win? Do you spread it around on to win bets and top X finish bets?

Obviously I don't have a strategy (other than probably losing money - but come on Phil, make me money!).

Unlike betting other sports where the options are either/or (win/lose, over/under, cover the spread), golf has tons of outcomes you can bet on.

I'd assume betting only "to win" bets wouldn't be a long term winning strategy due to the variance of a large field and 4 day events, but maybe I'm wrong about that?
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Depends if you’re betting every week or just select tourneys, like the majors. If you’re betting on players to win, and you’re betting $100 a week, you’re gonna get smoked.
If I had $100 to bet the Masters, I would take a few players to win the tourney at different price points. Take a guy at 10-1, a guy at 20-1, a guy at 50-1, and then maybe a bomb at 100-1. I would save a few bucks to fire in a bet on Sunday morning. Books make new lines after every round, and in case your pre-tourney bets are toast, you can have some action on Sunday still. Also, there are matchup bets. You could throw some of those in. Take one player to beat another, either for the whole tourney or in individual rounds. There’s lots of ways to gamble on golf.

This week I have $200 worth of bets up. I put $25 on 8 different golfers to win it. Hopefully 1/2 are in contention on Sunday. If not, I saved myself some money to bet a guy on Sunday morning to salvage the week.
 
XLCenterFan said:
Depends if you’re betting every week or just select tourneys, like the majors. If you’re betting on players to win, and you’re betting $100 a week, you’re gonna get smoked.
If I had $100 to bet the Masters, I would take a few players to win the tourney at different price points. Take a guy at 10-1, a guy at 20-1, a guy at 50-1, and then maybe a bomb at 100-1. I would save a few bucks to fire in a bet on Sunday morning. Books make new lines after every round, and in case your pre-tourney bets are toast, you can have some action on Sunday still. Also, there are matchup bets. You could throw some of those in. Take one player to beat another, either for the whole tourney or in individual rounds. There’s lots of ways to gamble on golf.

This week I have $200 worth of bets up. I put $25 on 8 different golfers to win it. Hopefully 1/2 are in contention on Sunday. If not, I saved myself some money to bet a guy on Sunday morning to salvage the week.
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So like $20 on 3 guys at different prices to win, maybe $20 on a fourth and have $20 left to "live" bet the event? Is the juice from betting Top 10 or Top 20 finishes not worth the squeeze?

Before The Masters, if I was going to bet it, I was thinking maybe more of something like this and would love to know your thoughts.

30% on the amount on 3 different guys to win (in the odds ranges you mentioned)
50% on top 10 finishes, my 3 "to win" bets and 2 other guys who would be potential dark horse winners
20% on top 20 finishes, probably on a couple of guys who would give a decent payout at the price (+300 or better)

BTW I didn't bet anywhere close to $100 (what I was using as a hypothetical above) on Phil to win. I didn't feel like putting in the research to place bets on the strategy I was outlining above, but woke us this morning and wanted a little action on a storyline that would be fun to see on Sunday if it were to happen haha.
 
McLovin said:
So like $20 on 3 guys at different prices to win, maybe $20 on a fourth and have $20 left to "live" bet the event? Is the juice from betting Top 10 or Top 20 finishes not worth the squeeze?

Before The Masters, if I was going to bet it, I was thinking maybe more of something like this and would love to know your thoughts.

30% on the amount on 3 different guys to win (in the odds ranges you mentioned)
50% on top 10 finishes, my 3 "to win" bets and 2 other guys who would be potential dark horse winners
20% on top 20 finishes, probably on a couple of guys who would give a decent payout at the price (+300 or better)

BTW I didn't bet anywhere close to $100 (what I was using as a hypothetical above) on Phil to win. I didn't feel like putting in the research to place bets on the strategy I was outlining above, but woke us this morning and wanted a little action on a storyline that would be fun to see on Sunday if it were to happen haha.
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Yes. What you suggested is also ideal. I like it. Keep in mind it’s really hard to pick winners in golf. Keep it for fun with money you don’t care about.
 
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