The GAME ....Showdown in Waco

[Bestiarius]

After reading the book “Scorecasting”, I’d say the biggest challenge for Ucon in Waco will be home court advantage. The book provides a pretty good scientific analysis of why refs see things the way the home team would like them seen.
I know, I know, Griner is great - but not omnipotent. I see several flaws. First, although she is heavier and stronger than last year, she can still be pushed around both on offense and defense. She has trouble moving people or getting around them. If the ball bounces near her or the entry pass is perfect, she’s golden, but otherwise she’s out in left field. Dolson’s bulk will make it more difficult for Griner to get good position. I predict Buck will also shine in this regard.
The technique Griner uses on defense to block shots is interesting. It seems like she often allows a driving offensive player to intentionally get by her. She then follows the driver in toward the basket and with her length, blocks the shot from the back. This is smart because the block occurs with the offensive player going away from her, thus less chance of a foul. Also, the driver thinks she has beaten the defender because that unrxpected big hand will not be seen or expected. I see an extra pass in this situation leading to points and/or fouls on Griner.
Passes into Brittney have to be more perfect than with most centers. She’s not the type to go and get the ball. This is where Uconn’s pressing defense comes in. Limiting the amount of time their offense has to work the ball in to her will pay dividends.
I do see conditioning to be an important factor. I perceive Baylor’s conditioning not up to Uconn’s level. I also think Uconn has at least four players capable of making Sims’ evening difficult.
If Uconn has a decent shooting night from the outside, I envision the Baylor players crying for their mommies by the 10 minute mark in the second half. Of course, I could be suffering from the same home court advantage syndrome mentioned at the top.

 

[tomcat]

Well Tom if Griner was 6'4 UConn IMO would beat Baylor like they beat everybody else. But they do have Griner and at 6'8 and if she score 22 pts and has 12 rebounds that means everybody else has got to score. Stef hasnt scored alot of points in any game this season. Infact most of UConns scoring has been pretty balanced, but Stefs importance down low is as an intimadator a shot blocker. Just Stefs presence underneath is big enough to make Baylor alter shots. If Stef was 6'0 Baylor would feast underneath. Stef can score when its needed and she has a very good 15ft shot which will draw Griner out to guard her. Hey Griner isnt going to just stand underneath, if she does somebody will be left open.

As far as UConns players driving to the basket watch the ND and TN games and even last weeks game. Opponets score inside on Baylor. UConn will too.

Tony, I agree that we are not relying on Stef as primarily a scorer. To me, shutting down Sims is a much bigger issue, and not allowing some member of the supporting cast to get a bunch of relatively easy buckets.

Others have said this, so I'll add to the chorus: I cannot imagine why Geno would want to go to a zone here, not with the horses he's got. So:
-- If Stef can get her jumper working and bring Griner out a bit;
-- If UConn's slashers can move to the basket without getting rejected at every turn;
-- If Kelly or someone locks down Sims;
-- If, as some have suggested, conditioning comes into play in the second half; and if
-- UConn gets a decent shooting night from Bria and KML;

UConn may be able to overcome the home court advantage. I'm hopeful, but realistic, about the chances of that happening.

 

[easttexastrash]

I do see conditioning to be an important factor. I perceive Baylor’s conditioning not up to Uconn’s level. I also think Uconn has at least four players capable of making Sims’ evening difficult.

This perception still intrigues me as I have not seen Baylor tire this season, neither against Notre Dame nor Tennessee. Maybe there is something that I have just missed but I just haven't seen it. Is this based on something seen in watching Baylor games or an assumption that no team can possibly be as well conditioned as UCONN. Is this year's squad exceptionally conditioned compared to teams in the past?

 

[Tonyc]

Tony, I agree that we are not relying on Stef as primarily a scorer. To me, shutting down Sims is a much bigger issue, and not allowing some member of the supporting cast to get a bunch of relatively easy buckets.

Others have said this, so I'll add to the chorus: I cannot imagine why Geno would want to go to a zone here, not with the horses he's got. So:
-- If Stef can get her jumper working and bring Griner out a bit;
-- If UConn's slashers can move to the basket without getting rejected at every turn;
-- If Kelly or someone locks down Sims;
-- If, as some have suggested, conditioning comes into play in the second half; and if
-- UConn gets a decent shooting night from Bria and KML;

UConn may be able to overcome the home court advantage. I'm hopeful, but realistic, about the chances of that happening.

I agree with you no zone. Put a body on Simms and keep the ball out of her hands as much as possible, making everybody else have to make a play, put a good defender on Pope and have Heather Kiah and Stef handle Griner, then let the offense do what it does best, pass the ball til they get a shot. We have a team of players who make plays, most teams dont and Stef is the best passing post player in WCBB. I dont see Baylor different then any other good team we play other then they have a 6'8 post player. Thats a big deal, but then again your dealing with Geno and there is no coach better. UConn wins this one by double digets.

One last point, if UConn scores 70 pts or more they win if the game is in the 50's Im concerned if the game is in the 60's its a toss up.

 

[easttexastrash]

I agree with you no zone. Put a body on Simms and keep the ball out of her hands as much as possible, making everybody else have to make a play, put a good defender on Pope and have Heather Kiah and Stef handle Griner, then let the offense do what it does best, pass the ball til they get a shot. We have a team of players who make plays, most teams dont and Stef is the best passing post player in WCBB. I dont see Baylor different then any other good team we play other then they have a 6'8 post player. Thats a big deal, but then again your dealing with Geno and there is no coach better. UConn wins this one by double digets.

Plus an All-American PG. The only other team that UCONN will play that has a a guard of this quality is ND, and if I recall correctly, Diggins dropped 28 on UCONN in the FF last year. Slowing down a high quality PG is a lot easier said than done. Sims dropped 25 on Notre Dame and 23 on Tennessee and had a 3:1 assist to TO ratio against each team. She's no run-of-the-mill PG

 

[Tonyc]

Your right shes no run of the mill PG thats why UConn needs to keep the ball out of her hands. Just a note on last season, how did Diggins and ND play in their first 3 gams againest UConn? I know they lost all 3 and won the 4th game on 2 absolutely non exsistent calls on Dolsen forcing Dolsen out of the game and opening up the middle so ND and Diggins had access. This season UConn has Buck who is playing better and Stokes. I think they will help the post play.

 

[easttexastrash]

Your right shes no run of the mill PG thats why UConn needs to keep the ball out of her hands. Just a note on last season, how did Diggins and ND play in their first 3 gams againest UConn? I know they lost all 3 and won the 4th game on 2 absolutely non exsistent calls on Dolsen forcing Dolsen out of the game and opening up the middle so ND and Diggins had access. This season UConn has Buck who is playing better and Stokes. I think they will help the post play.

I apparently mis-understood this comment: "I dont see Baylor different then any other good team we play other then they have a 6'8 post player." Surely you can't assert that any other good team you play has a PG the quality of Sims, excepting ND.

 

[easttexastrash]

If Dolson leaves Griner to stop dribble penetration, who is left guarding Griner? The guards will gave to keep her from getting into the lane and it sounds as if that was a struggle in the FF game.

 

[easttexastrash]

I believe the key in the game to be the number of shots UCONN can make from the FT area. That is a weak spot in the Baylor defense. I would try to get KML quite a few shots from that area if she has the foot speed to shake her defender.

 

[HoopsHoppy]

Lot's of concern above about Stef's offensive contributions. She's averaging 20 minutes per game (181 minutes to date). She's shooting at a 60% rate but has only attempted 58 shots - that's 6.5 per game. Her attempts are approximately 10% of the 570 shots UConn has attempted. She is part of the offensive flow but not the primary scorer. Griner, on the other hand, has 147 attempts, hitting at a 64.5% clip, and is taking 22.6% of Baylor's shots.

 

[Icebear]

I apparently mis-understood this comment: "I dont see Baylor different then any other good team we play other then they have a 6'8 post player." Surely you can't assert that any other good team you play has a PG the quality of Sims, excepting ND.

Michigan State the last couple of years.

 

[Icebear]

If Dolson leaves Griner to stop dribble penetration, who is left guarding Griner? The guards will gave to keep her from getting into the lane and it sounds as if that was a struggle in the FF game.

There are a number of possilities including the rolling shift of a player like Kelly bodying her on the backside. Again, "control the legs." If BG blindly turns into the player too quickly she risks an offensive foul.

 

[Tonyc]

UConn is a passing team moving the ball quickly. Baylor is more of a one on one team and creating shots. If UConn is taking alot of outside shots the ball bounces further from the basket. UConn is going to do alot of what TN Minny and STJ did againest Baylor. The biggest difference will be UConn has a big post player. The keys to the game will be Baylor defending the perimiter and handleing UConns pressure. You can talk about good defense, but UConns defense is something you cant compare to. The other key is Baylor will have to keep UConn under 70pts. If UConn scores over 70 pts I dont think Baylor can beat them.

 

[DaddyChoc]

ETT is doing a lot of talking ... I hope everything fall into place for you.

I dont blame you for doing so but there's a lot of games to be played.

again I still think Baylor will beat UConn next week but...

once you put Baylor's history on the same level as Tn & UConn I gave up!

 

[HuskyNan]

I am curious as to when 9.8 points a game qualified as be a "great scorer." Dolson, Buck and Stokes combined average about 6 points fewer a game than BG does.

As the 2010-11 season progressed, Dolson proved that she was someone to be reckoned with in the paint. When this season started it became clear that opponents were going to double-team her. Dolson is an exceptional passer and when she gets the ball, defenses tend to collapse on her which is why there have been some nice lanes for other Huskies, and specifically Tiffany Hayes, to get to the basket. That's what Geno meant by having the offense run through Stef, btw, that she has to touch the ball. When she gets it she's either going to score or when the double-team comes she's going to pass the ball to the open player. And watch for Stef in the high post, btw. She's been hitting 17'-18' shots will some regularity. Don't be surprised to see her shoot from the perimeter, either.

 

[Tonyc]

Its going to be very interesting to see if BU doubles down on Stef or lets Stef take Griner one on one like Tina did. If Stef can do what Tina did againest Griner, UConn wins this one by a dozen.

 

[easttexastrash]

Its going to be very interesting to see if BU doubles down on Stef or lets Stef take Griner one on one like Tina did. If Stef can do what Tina did againest Griner, UConn wins this one by a dozen.

Baylor ALWAYS helps in the paint, which is why they are so vulnerable to the cutter and to the kick-out. When Dolson gets the ball, expect a double-down. Part of this is surely to keep BG out of foul trouble.

Let me say right now, NOBODY can do what Tina did. Tina was one of a kind and possibly the greatest post player in the history of the game up to that time.

 

[easttexastrash]

ETT is doing a lot of talking ... I hope everything fall into place for you.

I dont blame you for doing so but there's a lot of games to be played.

again I still think Baylor will beat UConn next week but...

once you put Baylor's history on the same level as Tn & UConn I gave up!

Hey, when things didn't fall into place last year I was back the next day and said congratulations and good luck the rest of the year. This year will be no different.

I have NEVER put Baylor's history on the same level as Geno. I point blank said that Mulkey's accomplishments as a coach are far outweighed by Geno's. Maybe I said something that made you think that, but I clearly stated that Geno is the best coach ever in women's basketball.

I did say that Mulkey deserves respect for what she has done, but that in no way indicates that Baylor is established like either UCONN or Tennessee. Only a fool would say that. I may make a fool of myself at times, but I am not a fool, and I recognize that Geno and Pat are leaps and bounds above any other program.

 

[easttexastrash]

And for the record, I have never once said that I think that Baylor will win this game...not once. I challenge you to find one post where I said that. I have only commented once on the predicted outcome and I said that a win is certainly no guarantee for Baylor. I have challenged things said about players and their strengths and weaknesses, but not once have I predicted a Baylor win.

Based on recent quality of play, unless BG and Sims explode, I actually think UCONN gets the nod because they look more polished and cohesive at this point. There are still a lot of unanswered questions with the Baylor supporting cast and I see a lot of inconsistency that worries me.

 

[easttexastrash]

ETT is doing a lot of talking ... I hope everything fall into place for you.

I dont blame you for doing so but there's a lot of games to be played.

again I still think Baylor will beat UConn next week but...

once you put Baylor's history on the same level as Tn & UConn I gave up!

Please see these comments from me from another thread and tell me how this could be interpreted as comparing Baylor's history to UCONN's. Let's not put words in my mouth, please.

"I think Geno is the best coach in the history of women's basketball, even though Pat has more championships to date. Let's just give Mulkey credit where it is due, as well. She is building something special at Baylor."

"As I said earlier, Mulkey's accomplishments are in no way on the level of Geno's. UCONN can almost hand pick the players it wants at this point, and the results show. And Geno has earned that and it is a result of his proven success."

 

[Tonyc]

And for the record, I have never once said that I think that Baylor will win this game...not once. I challenge you to find one post where I said that. I have only commented once on the predicted outcome and I said that a win is certainly no guarantee for Baylor. I have challenged things said about players and their strengths and weaknesses, but not once have I predicted a Baylor win.

Based on recent quality of play, unless BG and Sims explode, I actually think UCONN gets the nod because they look more polished and cohesive at this point. There are still a lot of unanswered questions with the Baylor supporting cast and I see a lot of inconsistency that worries me.

ETT maybe you can answer a question that was bothering me. Kim said something about getting along on the court. I dont remember the exact words. Are there problems with the players about sharing the ball? Do you know anything about what she meant.

 

[easttexastrash]

ETT maybe you can answer a question that was bothering me. Kim said something about getting along on the court. I dont remember the exact words. Are there problems with the players about sharing the ball? Do you know anything about what she meant.

I think the issue is that some of the players feel that some of the other players are not putting in their best effort. Sims called out her teammates recently saying something to the effect of "coach knows what she will get every game from BG and me, but some of the other players are not coming to play."

I haven't heard of any off-court squabbles, but who knows. Mulkey is very tight-lipped when it comes to internal issues.

 

[Tonyc]

Im wondering if the other players are deferring to Simms and Griner and are just standing around waiting for them.

 

[easttexastrash]

Im wondering if the other players are deferring to Simms and Griner and are just standing around waiting for them.

I think it is more on the defensive end and rebounding.

 

[Bestiarius]

This perception still intrigues me as I have not seen Baylor tire this season, neither against Notre Dame nor Tennessee. Maybe there is something that I have just missed but I just haven't seen it. Is this based on something seen in watching Baylor games or an assumption that no team can possibly be as well conditioned as UCONN. Is this year's squad exceptionally conditioned compared to teams in the past?

It is something I've noticed while watching the Baylor games. It seemed to me that Griner was slow in transition, but I wasn't sure if it was just that her long legs made it appear that she was moving slowly. So, I took a stopwatch and timed how long it took her to get to the other end of the court on a variety of plays. I did the same for Dolson. I noted that Griner was often 1 to 3 seconds slower on a majority of plays. I also noticed that Uconn on defense in general plays a step closer to her man and thus expends significantly more energy guarding. Also, Uconn full court presses much more than any of the teams you mentioned. Also, Uconn is much more active on offense. All of these thngs lead me to believe Uconn's conditioning is superior.

 

[Icebear]

It is something I've noticed while watching the Baylor games. It seemed to me that Griner was slow in transition, but I wasn't sure if it was just that her long legs made it appear that she was moving slowly. So, I took a stopwatch and timed how long it took her to get to the other end of the court on a variety of plays. I did the same for Dolson. I noted that Griner was often 1 to 3 seconds slower on a majority of plays. I also noticed that Uconn on defense in general plays a step closer to her man and thus expends significantly more energy guarding. Also, Uconn full court presses much more than any of the teams you mentioned. Also, Uconn is much more active on offense. All of these thngs lead me to believe Uconn's conditioning is superior.

Good points, Besti. Thanks for documenting the difference between BG and Stef. I was sure it was true but never thought of timing them, doh!

All that plus numerous coaches over the last several seasons have commented on the conditioning of UConn after the game. UConn changed conditioning coaches a few years ago and it had an immediate impact on the team.

 

[easttexastrash]

It is something I've noticed while watching the Baylor games. It seemed to me that Griner was slow in transition, but I wasn't sure if it was just that her long legs made it appear that she was moving slowly. So, I took a stopwatch and timed how long it took her to get to the other end of the court on a variety of plays. I did the same for Dolson. I noted that Griner was often 1 to 3 seconds slower on a majority of plays. I also noticed that Uconn on defense in general plays a step closer to her man and thus expends significantly more energy guarding. Also, Uconn full court presses much more than any of the teams you mentioned. Also, Uconn is much more active on offense. All of these thngs lead me to believe Uconn's conditioning is superior.

I contend that Griner purposely trails on offense. I believe it to be part of the offensive scheme to have her moving to the basket so that she is not just standing under the basket to allow for three defenders to surround her too quickly. Not setting up too early and getting pushed on as quickly does allow her to save some energy as well. I have seen her draw a lot of fouls from defenders who are trying to prevent her from moving toward the lane.

I could be wrong, but there has even been discussion between Mulkey and Griner about her trailing. Griner is trying to talk Mulkey into letting her shoot the three as the trailer as well...don't see that happening too often. For anyone who goes to the game, keep an eye on Griner shooting threes in warmups. It is quite impressive and one day will be a weapon that Baylor uses.

On defense, BG does not have to lean on defenders. She can play off of them and still block shots, thus conserving her energy. Griner doesn't have to use nearly as much energy guarding as her opponents do. Dolson will have to exert a lot of energy guarding Griner and that will have an impact on her tendency to pick up fouls and also will affect her on the offensive end since it will deplete her energy level.

 

[Icebear]

I contend that Griner purposely trails on offense. I believe it to be part of the offensive scheme to have her moving to the basket so that she is not just standing under the basket to allow for three defenders to surround her too quickly. Not setting up too early and getting pushed on as quickly does allow her to save some energy as well.

I could be wrong, but there has even been discussion between Mulkey and Griner about her trailing. Griner is trying to talk Mulkey into letting her shoot the three as the trailer as well...don't see that happening too often.

On defense, BG does not have to lean on defenders. She can play off of them and still block shots, thus conserving her energy. Griner doesn't have to use nearly as much energy guarding as her opponents do. Dolson will have to exert a lot of energy guarding Griner and that will have an impact on her tendency to pick up fouls and also will affect her on the offensive end since it will deplete her energy level.

For anyone who goes to the game, keep an eye on Griner shooting threes in warmups. It is quite impressive and one day will be a weapon that Baylor uses.

I have never ever heard a coach encourage a player especially a player like Griner to do what you are suggesting.

 

[easttexastrash]

I have never ever heard a coach encourage a player especially a player like Griner to do what you are suggesting.

Then again, you've never seen a player like Griner that gets "leaned on" to the extent that Griner does.

But this is just my opinion from watching almost every Baylor game for the past two and a third seasons. I've seen some trends that are not common on other teams. I think that some unique things are done with her due to alleviate the pounding that she takes.

 

[Icebear]

Then again, you've never seen a player like Griner that gets "leaned on" to the extent that Griner does.

But this is just my opinion from watching almost every Baylor game for the past two and a third seasons. I've seen some trends that are not common on other teams. I think that some unique things are done with her due to alleviate the pounding that she takes.

If that is the case it will play into what UConn needs to do and that is cause Baylor to waste as much time as possible before setting up their offense and then harassing them into shot clock violations.