The Bubble | Page 2 | The Boneyard

The Bubble

auror said:
Not gonna lie, Cincy's resume is also terrible. 4 bad losses compared to 3 for us, but none as bad as St. Joe's.

Cincy has 3 more good wins than us is the difference at the moment.
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And Cincy is like a 50-50 proposition at this point. They're like a 10-11 seed if they're lucky.
 
If you put the best 64 in, we’re in without a question. Throw in automatics and a system that fails to account for late season performance, treats OT losses against quality opponents as all other losses, and favors power conferences out of the box you get screwed. Next year, we sit on the other side of the fence. Let’s win the AAC tourney.
 
We are not on the bubble. The AAC holds us back. Look at Texas for example. One spot behind us in KenPom. They're a last 4 in and they have so many more quality wins than us because the B12 is solid and is not a joke like the AAC. Those "A" wins don't grow on trees in our mid-major conference.

Even Providence is up to a 9 seed now and they're only two KenPom spots ahead of us. Next year will be so much better, I hope
 
auror said:
Here's our overall body of work. Does this look like a tournament team's resume?

Great wins:
None

Good wins:
2 wins against teams solidly in the tournament. Both at home, by 3 and 6 points.
2 wins against teams on the bubble, by 1 and 3 points, one of which was OT.
Tulsa on the road.

Bad losses:
Tulsa at home.
2 losses against 100+ conference foes on the road, 1 by double digits.

Really, really bad losses:
St, Joe's at home by 9.
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Maybe not as of now, but win a couple more in the AAC tournament and it is probably better than a lot of the team considered on the bubble currently from the A-10 or AAC.

Also if you think we have no "great" wins, I'm not sure we even had a shot at one at all this season then.
 
McLovin said:
Maybe not as of now, but win a couple more in the AAC tournament and it is probably better than a lot of the team considered on the bubble currently from the A-10 or AAC.

Also if you think we have no "great" wins, I'm not sure we even had a shot at one at all this season then.
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Great win opportunities were @Houston & @Villanova. This win was also borderline great, depending which metric you prefer. Indiana neutral was also borderline. You are correct that our schedule didn't give us a lot of opportunities because the top of the AAC was bad, Xavier slumped, and we didn't play @Wichita.
 
UChusky916 said:
No chance unless we win the conference tourney guys.

I know we want to be optimistic and the team is obviously playing better than their record, but we're not getting in because of the AAC reputation.
The committee will take an average team with a worse record from the ACC or B10, or B12 over UConn in the AAC every day. Remember who's on the committee?

AAC tourney winners or bust.
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This is the truth. We can all try and be objective
 
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Win out and semis loss by 1 in a tough game ot OT makes me think we are close the bubble. Just too many close and a bad loss or two seem to make me think we sink a bit here. I will say, judging on Vital's excitement after buckets tonight, it makes me think there is something brewing in him and us. Perhaps the Bouk statement that we can make the tourney is rubbing off. I'd love to see us in the national bracket as a 12 and go elite 8. :)
 
Doesn't what you do at the end of the season count?
I don't know if anyone can beat us now even with 8 players.
The MO is like the old days.
What a great scene at the end tonite with CV taking the mike and the crowd.
Houston knows were around. Good team but not good enough.
 
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auror said:
Torvik has us 13th team out right now. So I think it's fair to say we are on the bubble of the bubble.
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Yeah, but you're talking a 7.8% chance of making tourney and only a 3.9% chance at an at-large bid. Compared to Cincy at 36.4/43.2 (Torvik has Cincy as 2nd team out).
 
Uconn77Duke74 said:
I’d say we are a bubble NIT team at the moment
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But currently in most bracketologist's field of 32, dependent on small conference bid steals. If UConn can get above a 6 seed projection, that's pretty safe.
 
Our NET only went up 2 spots to #61 after beating the #20 NET Houston. We'll actually have a bigger jump by beating #171 NET Tulane because it's on the road. This metric is super wonky.
 
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with the Ncaa's being the ultimate goal, who here would think the NIT is a failure when back in January we were hoping for a winning record never mind a post season birth of any kind. If the eye test is still a factor we get in with 22 wins because we look like a tournament team
 
In recent years, the bubble has been brutal. This year is no different. As of now, no way is UConn in. Personally, I think, depending on who they play and beat, a very successful conference tourney can help them sneak in. Why not?
 
djct1999 said:
In recent years, the bubble has been brutal. This year is no different. As of now, no way is UConn in. Personally, I think, depending on who they play and beat, a very successful conference tourney can help them sneak in. Why not?
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yeah I wrote this in another post as well last week: even though I am just a fan and my mentality has no bearing on the team and how they play, I am taking it one game at a time. And I hope they are doing the same.

I would be thrilled with a NIT invite and ecstatic if they did make the NCAA, but I realize the latter is a really long shot.
 
djct1999 said:
In recent years, the bubble has been brutal. This year is no different. As of now, no way is UConn in. Personally, I think, depending on who they play and beat, a very successful conference tourney can help them sneak in. Why not?
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UConn has 2 wins people would consider good (H 20 Houston, H 28 Florida). But they have 3 losses people would consider bad (A 114 Temple, A 127 USF, H 237 Saint Joseph's). The Temple loss is recent, too, unlike Providence's bad losses.
 
tzznandrew said:
UConn has 2 wins people would consider good (H 20 Houston, H 28 Florida). But they have 3 losses people would consider bad (A 114 Temple, A 127 USF, H 237 Saint Joseph's). The Temple loss is recent, too, unlike Providence's bad losses.
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Most bubble teams have bad losses. They also beat Tulsa, Cincy, and Memphis. If they beat any of those teams again, plus Houston or Wichita, they can atleast watch the selection show on Sunday.
 
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I'll re-run my bracketology once the NCAA sheets are updated. My guess UConn is ahead of Memphis now, and probably in the 8ish out.
 
Lack of quality wins is our issue, not the "bad" losses. 11 of our 12 losses are Q1 or Q2. By comparison, Providence has 4 Q3/Q4 losses. Cincy has 5 Q3/Q4 losses. If we could make it to the AAC Final, that would add a couple more quality wins. Who knows at that point!
 
tzznandrew said:
SFA: Not a bad loss.
Evansville: terrible loss. Kentucky just has way way better wins.
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Your dedication to the bubble and bubble related information gives me inspiration. Not related to my post, just wanted to say that.
 
housekeys said:
The assumption is we likely make a deep run into the NIT vs a quick NCAA exit. Neither is certain. Therefore I rather we win 4 in 4 nights and have everyone expect us to lose early in the NCAA ( remember what everyone said after 5 wins in 5 nights? ). They are still waiting.

I will admit the thought of getting to MSG and staking our claim as we re-join the Big East, is a nice story line.
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My point and great subplot if msg. Let’s start the welcoming party. I would love the magic of previous tourney runs but really we are just short on bodies at this point. A few nights in nyc are way more thrilling than one in Albany.
 
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