The Bubble

[AntG168]

I’d say we are a bubble NIT team at the moment

You’re drunk

 

[pepband99]

This morning we are KenPom #49.

And Houston is rated #14. Higher than any ZBE team.

LOL - as opposed to the regular season champ of the ZCUSA, which isn't even on the bubble?

Way to die on an anthill.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Humans do not have the capacity for objectivity

Hey, speak for yourself!

 

[tzznandrew]

LOL - as opposed to the regular season champ of the ZCUSA, which isn't even on the bubble?

Way to die on an anthill.

 

[tzznandrew]

Imagine thinking this conference was in any way comparable to the one I posted in the previous post.

 

[Palatine]

View attachment 51645

Imagine thinking this conference was in any way comparable to the one I posted in the previous post.

That is NOT Ken Pom. Good try.

 

[tzznandrew]

And, to counter his silly KenPom post:

14. Houston
16. Creighton
18. Seton Hall
19. Villanova
26. Butler
29. Marquette
42. Wichita State
43. Cincy
44. Xavier
47. Providence
49. UConn
60. Memphis
64. Georgetown
73. St. John's
74. Tulsa
89. DePaul
90. SMU
118. Temple
124. USF
126. UCF
189. Tulane
209. East Carolina

 

[tzznandrew]

That is NOT Ken Pom. Good try.

Oh, you mean posting the main metric that the NCAA uses was irrelevant to which conference was better? Or the fact that I was compiling a list that shows that, by KenPom, 6 AAC teams are worse than the worst BE team--two are twice as bad--and, after Houston (who KenPom does have as higher than the highest BE team, though I'm skeptical, whatever) it takes 5 BE schools before you get to the next AAC school. And the team leading the AAC has a worse KenPom score than every single BE school but DePaul.

 

[businesslawyer]

I don't understand the "either, or" nature of this discussion. It is not the case that the AAC has to be either as good as the Big East or the worst conference in the history of basketball. It is allowed to be what it is -- year in and year out the 7th best conference in the country, which normally is closer to the bottom of the Big 6 than the best of everyone else.

 

[uconnbill]

I’d say we are a bubble NIT team at the moment

Whatever you are smoking is making your brain cloudy to reality. Just saying

 

[Palatine]

Oh, you mean posting the main metric that the NCAA uses was irrelevant to which conference was better? Or the fact that I was compiling a list that shows that, by KenPom, 6 AAC teams are worse than the worst BE team--two are twice as bad--and, after Houston (who KenPom does have as higher than the highest BE team, though I'm skeptical, whatever) it takes 5 BE schools before you get to the next AAC school. And the team leading the AAC has a worse KenPom score than every single BE school but DePaul.

Let's see Seton Hall's record with our travel schedule. Travel in the BE is equivalent to Syracuse's December schedule. It's still a Providence centric conference that was created to protect the Friar basketball program. It's HQ is still in Rhode Island. I don't give a darn about the ZBE. It's a worse baseball, soccer, non football league with good basketball that we helped create. Hurray for Crate and Barrel.

 

[Husky1]

If we win all the way the finals, were definitely on the bubble, and deserve to be in if that happens.

 

[king conn]

In my latest update I have UConn #60 overall. Which is up 11 spots from earlier this week. My last at large team is #47. So I have them 13th out. Maybe still a prayer, but they'd need to face three good teams and win two (obviously if they beat all three good teams they'd win the auto-bid.) Even then that is probably not enough since it won't happen in a vacuum. For reference here's how I have teams rated (AAC/Big East):

#7 Seton Hall
#8 Villanova
#11 Creighton
#16 Butler
#26 Houston
#28 Marquette
#38 Wichita State
#39 Xavier
#40 Cincinnati
#43 Providence
#51 Memphis
#60 Connecticut
#63 Tulsa

Everyone else is irrelevant.

Memphis is one spot ahead of us in NET, 9 spots behind us in BPI, and 11 spots behind us in kenpom
Yet you have us 9 spots behind them in your system
Can you explain?

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Never count UCONN out. We are back!!!!

I feel it. This team will surprise those that aren't watching. I think we are ahead of schedule!

 

[bendm]

Our NET only went up 2 spots to #61 after beating the #20 NET Houston. We'll actually have a bigger jump by beating #171 NET Tulane because it's on the road. This metric is super wonky.

right hopefully blowing out tulane by 20 will get us up to 57-59 which is comparable to the Next 4 Out group going into the conference tourney. here are the NETs as of today for lunardi's bubble teams:

Last 4 in
Arizona State- 53
Xavier- 42
Indiana- 52
Cincinnati- 49
First 4 Out
Utah State- 38
Richmond- 44
NC State- 59
Wichita State- 48
Next 4 Out
Purdue- 32
Memphis- 60
South Carolina- 63
Arkansas- 43

 

[Waterbury]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2021

If I'm reading this right bracketmatrix has us as 10th out. There'll probably be some bid stealers so I'd say @Slasher is pretty on the money with his 13th out analysis. I am now thinking it's not impossible for us to get an at-large. Just extremely unlikely.

 

[pepband99]

Let's see Seton Hall's record with our travel schedule. Travel in the BE is equivalent to Syracuse's December schedule. It's still a Providence centric conference that was created to protect the Friar basketball program. It's HQ is still in Rhode Island. I don't give a darn about the ZBE. It's a worse baseball, soccer, non football league with good basketball that we helped create. Hurray for Crate and Barrel.

...so a league with worse travel, which makes teams comparatively worse, is better in your mind?

Wow - you're even more wrong than i ever imagined on this...

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

That is NOT Ken Pom. Good try.

No, but this is.

 

[Slasher]

Memphis is one spot ahead of us in NET, 9 spots behind us in BPI, and 11 spots behind us in kenpom
Yet you have us 9 spots behind them in your system
Can you explain?

Sure -- my bracketology is formula driven, it takes pretty much every input you can think off and calculates the result and has been refined over the years based on actual results (how the NCAA seeded teams.) Right now, what's hurting UConn is just 2 Q2 wins. UConn is 5-11 in Q1 and Q2. The last at-large bids tend to be around .500 in that category. Memphis is 8-6 in Q1/Q2. So in two fewer games they have three more wins. That's really the main difference. Both have a blemishes (3 Q3 losses for Memphis and 1 Q4 loss for UConn) that more or less even out.

 

[bendm]

f I'm reading this right bracketmatrix has us as 10th out

it lists 5 #11 and 5 #12 seeds each so maybe 12th out

 

[BlueDogs]

Oh, you mean posting the main metric that the NCAA uses was irrelevant to which conference was better? Or the fact that I was compiling a list that shows that, by KenPom, 6 AAC teams are worse than the worst BE team--two are twice as bad--and, after Houston (who KenPom does have as higher than the highest BE team, though I'm skeptical, whatever) it takes 5 BE schools before you get to the next AAC school. And the team leading the AAC has a worse KenPom score than every single BE school but DePaul.

Good lord. All this crap is a self licking ice cone. How the model is first instantiated, seeded and weighted drives the outcomes. If you start BE and B1G teams high in the rankings, then that distortion remains and ripples through the entire model. The BE is a better basketball conference. By how much is not at all that clear.

 

[navery12]

it lists 5 #11 and 5 #12 seeds each so maybe 12th out

There are 5 11 and 12 seeds who make the tournament

 

[auror]

Sure -- my bracketology is formula driven, it takes pretty much every input you can think off and calculates the result and has been refined over the years based on actual results (how the NCAA seeded teams.) Right now, what's hurting UConn is just 2 Q2 wins. UConn is 5-11 in Q1 and Q2. The last at-large bids tend to be around .500 in that category. Memphis is 8-6 in Q1/Q2. So in two fewer games they have three more wins. That's really the main difference. Both have a blemishes (3 Q3 losses for Memphis and 1 Q4 loss for UConn) that more or less even out.

Yeah with those 2 games moving to Q1, we're now 2-6 in Q2. Which is bad. Very bad. It's the reason we're 84th in Wins Above Bubble and 80s in other strength of record metrics.

 

[auror]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2021

View attachment 51650

If I'm reading this right bracketmatrix has us as 10th out. There'll probably be some bid stealers so I'd say @Slasher is pretty on the money with his 13th out analysis. I am now thinking it's not impossible for us to get an at-large. Just extremely unlikely.

What this actually means is that someone actually put us in the field(!) as an at-large. That's a consensus aggregation website. Once you get past Arkansas in that, the order is pretty random.

This is the site that did, but once you go there, we're not in the bracket. Must have been an input error by them or the matrix.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is not enough track record with the new selection system to determine how the Committee will go. In the old days (like 5 years ago), the Committee basically took the RPI rankings and tweaked it a little.

Now, who knows? Will NET be the starting point like RPI used to be, or will the Committee be much more subjective. Will the Committee leave a 35 NET team out and take a 60 NET teams? I have no idea.

Honestly, I think subjective helps more than hurts us, because our NET, Kenpom and BPI are not going to get where they need to be if we lose again.