The Bubble

[Doctor Hoop]

Devils advocate here. Logic says we aren’t on the bubble ... but ... during the broadcast they said Jerry Palm’s last 4 in included Texas and Richmond. We are 49 Kenpom. Richmond is 48, Texas is 50.

Hmmmm....

 

[djct1999]

Here's our overall body of work. Does this look like a tournament team's resume?

Great wins:
None

Good wins:
2 wins against teams solidly in the tournament. Both at home, by 3 and 6 points.
2 wins against teams on the bubble, by 1 and 3 points, one of which was OT.
Tulsa on the road.

Bad losses:
Tulsa at home.
2 losses against 100+ conference foes on the road, 1 by double digits.

Really, really bad losses:
St, Joe's at home by 9.

Looks like a bubble resume to me. Asking for a friend, how does Richmonds, Utah State, Texas or Cincy’s look?

 

[Hi-Low]

Here's our overall body of work. Does this look like a tournament team's resume?

Great wins:
None

Good wins:
2 wins against teams solidly in the tournament. Both at home, by 3 and 6 points.
2 wins against teams on the bubble, by 1 and 3 points, one of which was OT.
Tulsa on the road.

Bad losses:
Tulsa at home.
2 losses against 100+ conference foes on the road, 1 by double digits.

Really, really bad losses:
St, Joe's at home by 9.

Nobody is saying we are a tourney team now but if we win 3 AAC tourney games our resume could end up being good enough to sneak in....who knows. If we beat Tulane make the AAC semi's we are on the bubble, make the finals we may get in.

 

[housekeys]

Semis get us in I think. But let me pose this question. Would you rather get into the dance and possibly leave early or win the NIT? The question is about development. I know what most would say but hardware is important too.

The assumption is we likely make a deep run into the NIT vs a quick NCAA exit. Neither is certain. Therefore I rather we win 4 in 4 nights and have everyone expect us to lose early in the NCAA ( remember what everyone said after 5 wins in 5 nights? ). They are still waiting.

I will admit the thought of getting to MSG and staking our claim as we re-join the Big East, is a nice story line.

 

[auror]

Looks like a bubble resume to me. Asking for a friend, how does Richmonds, Utah State, Texas or Cincy’s look?

Not gonna lie, Cincy's resume is also terrible. 4 bad losses compared to 3 for us, but none as bad as St. Joe's.

Cincy has 3 more good wins than us. It's the difference at the moment.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not gonna lie, Cincy's resume is also terrible. 4 bad losses compared to 3 for us, but none as bad as St. Joe's.

Cincy has 3 more good wins than us is the difference at the moment.

And Cincy is like a 50-50 proposition at this point. They're like a 10-11 seed if they're lucky.

 

[BlueDogs]

If you put the best 64 in, we’re in without a question. Throw in automatics and a system that fails to account for late season performance, treats OT losses against quality opponents as all other losses, and favors power conferences out of the box you get screwed. Next year, we sit on the other side of the fence. Let’s win the AAC tourney.

 

[ThabeetDown]

We are not on the bubble. The AAC holds us back. Look at Texas for example. One spot behind us in KenPom. They're a last 4 in and they have so many more quality wins than us because the B12 is solid and is not a joke like the AAC. Those "A" wins don't grow on trees in our mid-major conference.

Even Providence is up to a 9 seed now and they're only two KenPom spots ahead of us. Next year will be so much better, I hope

 

[McLovin]

Here's our overall body of work. Does this look like a tournament team's resume?

Great wins:
None

Good wins:
2 wins against teams solidly in the tournament. Both at home, by 3 and 6 points.
2 wins against teams on the bubble, by 1 and 3 points, one of which was OT.
Tulsa on the road.

Bad losses:
Tulsa at home.
2 losses against 100+ conference foes on the road, 1 by double digits.

Really, really bad losses:
St, Joe's at home by 9.

Maybe not as of now, but win a couple more in the AAC tournament and it is probably better than a lot of the team considered on the bubble currently from the A-10 or AAC.

Also if you think we have no "great" wins, I'm not sure we even had a shot at one at all this season then.

 

[auror]

Maybe not as of now, but win a couple more in the AAC tournament and it is probably better than a lot of the team considered on the bubble currently from the A-10 or AAC.

Also if you think we have no "great" wins, I'm not sure we even had a shot at one at all this season then.

Great win opportunities were @Houston & @Villanova. This win was also borderline great, depending which metric you prefer. Indiana neutral was also borderline. You are correct that our schedule didn't give us a lot of opportunities because the top of the AAC was bad, Xavier slumped, and we didn't play @Wichita.

 

[uconngb]

No chance unless we win the conference tourney guys.

I know we want to be optimistic and the team is obviously playing better than their record, but we're not getting in because of the AAC reputation.
The committee will take an average team with a worse record from the ACC or B10, or B12 over UConn in the AAC every day. Remember who's on the committee?

AAC tourney winners or bust.

This is the truth. We can all try and be objective

 

[uconnbill]

Just win baby and it will take care of itself.

Great game tonight which reminded me of the Calhoun years

 

[LIuconn]

4 wins in 4 days with these 7 players? Where do I sign?

 

[FatHank]

Win out and semis loss by 1 in a tough game ot OT makes me think we are close the bubble. Just too many close and a bad loss or two seem to make me think we sink a bit here. I will say, judging on Vital's excitement after buckets tonight, it makes me think there is something brewing in him and us. Perhaps the Bouk statement that we can make the tourney is rubbing off. I'd love to see us in the national bracket as a 12 and go elite 8.

 

[coachn]

Doesn't what you do at the end of the season count?
I don't know if anyone can beat us now even with 8 players.
The MO is like the old days.
What a great scene at the end tonite with CV taking the mike and the crowd.
Houston knows were around. Good team but not good enough.

 

[auror]

Torvik has us 13th team out right now. So I think it's fair to say we are on the bubble of the bubble.

 

[Kemba'sYogurt]

For me, I'm just overjoyed we can even have this discussion after the last few years. Tonight was one of the most enjoyable games I can remember.

Thanks Dan Hurley!

 

[Zissou]

Win out and you are in

 

[CL82]

UConn basketball is back, the casuals are back, no one wants to play us.

It’s March.

UConn hoops is back.
The casual fans are back.
Who wants to play us?

 

[storrsroars]

Torvik has us 13th team out right now. So I think it's fair to say we are on the bubble of the bubble.

Yeah, but you're talking a 7.8% chance of making tourney and only a 3.9% chance at an at-large bid. Compared to Cincy at 36.4/43.2 (Torvik has Cincy as 2nd team out).

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

I’d say we are a bubble NIT team at the moment

 

[storrsroars]

I’d say we are a bubble NIT team at the moment

But currently in most bracketologist's field of 32, dependent on small conference bid steals. If UConn can get above a 6 seed projection, that's pretty safe.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Our NET only went up 2 spots to #61 after beating the #20 NET Houston. We'll actually have a bigger jump by beating #171 NET Tulane because it's on the road. This metric is super wonky.

 

[QuickDraw]

with the Ncaa's being the ultimate goal, who here would think the NIT is a failure when back in January we were hoping for a winning record never mind a post season birth of any kind. If the eye test is still a factor we get in with 22 wins because we look like a tournament team

 

[djct1999]

In recent years, the bubble has been brutal. This year is no different. As of now, no way is UConn in. Personally, I think, depending on who they play and beat, a very successful conference tourney can help them sneak in. Why not?