As I read this discussion, with all of the passionate pros and cons and unanswered (unaswerable?) questions, I feel a nagging need for context. If we limit the conversation to WCBB, this may all be a bit less Earth-shattering.
As of last year—and Covid has probably changed things a little—there were 351 Division 1 teams. Let's assume that Div. 2 and 3 won't attract material N.I.L money. Let's also assume that the teams ranked from 100 to 351 probably don't have many players that will attract funding beyond the local pizza shop.
Another assumption: Those 100 top schools have an average of, say, 13 scholarship students. If it's 14 or 15, just shoot me. And then remember that the Ivies don't have athletic scholarships, so that brings the average down a tad if one or two of them are in the top 100. No, you don't have to unshoot me. This is all broad brush musing, where numbers after the decimal don't matter.
So we have roughly 1300 students. I'd guess that no more than ten percent of them will be in play—all puns intended—for promotional payments visible without a magnifying glass. Of these 130, the bulk of available funds will be directed to the best, say 50%, or 65. The rest will get a little, but not enough to seriously affect GDP per capita in their college towns.
What does all of this imply, to me at least?
Glad you asked.
1. The pool of big advertising and promotional dollars from Nike, Addidas, et alia isn't going to grow. The schools and NCAA will get a little less, and a few students will get something, rather than today's goose egg. The NCAA and schools won't like this, but will live with it. Don't be suprised if they collude to create lots of arcane rules to try to control things. That, after all, is what they are good at, in a strained sense of "good".
2. The pretense of student/athlete will continue to shortchange the student aspect at most programs. This is, after all, an entertainment business, and education is a minor hindrance to building and supporting that empire.
3. Coaching salaries at the most visible programs will continue to dwarf those of academic department heads and full professors in general. This is, after all, an entertainment business...
4. There will likely be some bumps in the road as this develops, but the sky won't fall. Falling skies are reserved for years when we don't sign enough bigs.
