Seeding Outlook

[UConNick]

A 3-seed in Bennett’s latest bracket on the Athletic, popping up just in front of Tennessee (who’s his highest 4).

We’ve also drawn ever closer to Tennessee on bracketmatrix, Tenn’s average seed there a 3.22 while we’re a 3.68. And that’s only still taking into account brackets released as of yesterday, I believe. That gap will narrow, I bet, as today’s brackets are factored in.

I’m not one who thinks we can get all the way to a 2, but a path to the 3-seed is forming. We know Saturday won’t matter to the committee (though it should. I do think conference tourney champions should receive a slight boost for winning that, even if it’s just re-evaluating their metrics factoring in 3-4 more quality wins). But I think getting past PC and topping Marquette would be enough to solidify us as a 3. I would lean towards a 4 being our floor if PC got us, but as I’ve said numerous times, I don’t trust the committee.

 

[pj]

What confuses me about the NET is that people say it's not comprehensive enough to really matter when it comes to seeding (we're 6 in the country but most brackets have us as a 4). However, the main thing we use to determine seeding is the quadrant victories, which use the NET to sort teams.

Yes, but there is a problem in that the way the NET is calculated aggravates the problem with quadrant scoring. NET is already rigged to reward strength of schedule (the two factors in NET are "the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating" -- College basketball's NET rankings, explained -- net efficiency rating is similar to Kenpom and then they bias it to reward strength of schedule). Then the quadrant scores work from NET, and quadrant scoring is rigged to favor schedules with high-quadrant opponents.

So you have a compounding of the favoritism to strength of schedule, which rewards teams from strong conferences. This year it favors the Big 12.

Wouldn't be surprising if Kansas is a #1 seed and Houston a #2 due to this effect. UCLA also underrated by quadrant scores I think.

 

[pj]

Re: quadrants are dumb.

Great tweet! Interesting that winning at Villanova is the toughest Q2 win.

 

[auror]

What confuses me about the NET is that people say it's not comprehensive enough to really matter when it comes to seeding (we're 6 in the country but most brackets have us as a 4). However, the main thing we use to determine seeding is the quadrant victories, which use the NET to sort teams.

I do not believe the quadrant system is the main thing used to determine seeding. From many reports of people who should know or are told, the committee dives a lot deeper into individual resumes (and members personal eye test) than just relying on the metrics or quads.

So the quads are what the horse race bracketologists and amateur forum goers rely on, but not as much the committee. But I'm sure they're used to some extent, I would just say definitely not the most important thing. They're a useful distillation of information, especially since as a range there is a margin of error built-in (only the values at the extremes are subject to really being wrong).

 

[navery12]

Not much of note tonight that can affect UConn. New Mexico plays Wyoming and is a 9 point favorite on KenPom. They're at #50 in the NET rankings so a bad performance from them could push Providence back up to 50 and make Thursday a Q1 game again

 

[HuskyHoosier]

We can root for the zags and st Mary’s to lose and give us a better chance at zags 2 or eliminate st Mary’s from competing for a 3.

 

[SubbaBub]

Top 4 in the east is all that matters, Top 5 in the East would be fine, if we are being honest. Being a 3 (or 2) gives us a slightly better Rd of 16 game assuming we aren't doomed.

 

[Skies2018]

Agreed, just look at Houston's resume.

Q1 wins - @Oregon, @ UVA, Neutral SMC, @ Memphis
Q2 wins - Oral Roberts, Kent State, @ Cincy, @ Tulane, @ UCF, @ Wichita St, @ Temple, Memphis.

That is some garbage aside from @ UVA and Neutral to SMC. Seriously debatable if any of those teams get an at large, Memphis is a bubble team and probably a 10 seed right now I guess.


I mean that just doesn't scream #1 seed.

Houston is overrated. They played a Mickey Mouse schedule all year. They’re gonna burn out in the Sweet 16 is my prediction.

 

[navery12]

 

[UCFan1513]

Tonight we are all San Francisco Dons

 

[caw]

UNCW in OT in their semi-final game.

 

[caw]

Houston is overrated. They played a Mickey Mouse schedule all year. They’re gonna burn out in the Sweet 16 is my prediction.

They are talented and good and they have a good coach but it will depend on if they can adjust when they face an actual challenge with similar athletes/coaching. Not sure if I trust them or Gonzaga least.

 

[auror]

Blind resume time

	A	B	C	D	E
Predict Ave	4	5	9	18	24
Resume Ave	15	15	10	16	17
SOS	27	45	60	37	12
OOC SOS	47	89	10	55	108
Away + Neutral	8-7	9-5	12-4	8-6	6-8
Quad 1 Wins	7	6	5	7	5
Quad 1+2	10-9	12-6	10-4	13-6	11-10
Bad Losses	0	1	1	2	0

What order do you put these teams in?

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Blind resume time

	A	B	C	D	E
Predict Ave	4	5	9	18	24
Resume Ave	15	15	10	16	17
SOS	27	45	60	37	12
OOC SOS	47	89	10	55	108
Away + Neutral	8-7	9-5	12-4	8-6	6-8
Quad 1 Wins	7	6	5	7	5
Quad 1+2	10-9	12-6	10-4	13-6	11-10
Bad Losses	0	1	1	2	0

What order do you put these teams in?

C, A, B, E, D

Hope I got it right

 

[tzznandrew]

Blind resume time

	A	B	C	D	E
Predict Ave	4	5	9	18	24
Resume Ave	15	15	10	16	17
SOS	27	45	60	37	12
OOC SOS	47	89	10	55	108
Away + Neutral	8-7	9-5	12-4	8-6	6-8
Quad 1 Wins	7	6	5	7	5
Quad 1+2	10-9	12-6	10-4	13-6	11-10
Bad Losses	0	1	1	2	0

What order do you put these teams in?

I know who A & B are.... It's hard to judge with that knowledge. I can be biased.

I'm pretty confident I'm putting E last of these though, and then D probably above them, but that's close.

Probably C-B-A-D-E

 

[yungdowork]

Blind resume time

	A	B	C	D	E
Predict Ave	4	5	9	18	24
Resume Ave	15	15	10	16	17
SOS	27	45	60	37	12
OOC SOS	47	89	10	55	108
Away + Neutral	8-7	9-5	12-4	8-6	6-8
Quad 1 Wins	7	6	5	7	5
Quad 1+2	10-9	12-6	10-4	13-6	11-10
Bad Losses	0	1	1	2	0

What order do you put these teams in?

This is actually incredibly hard. Personally, when it comes to tournament time, I tend to rate teams who have a "higher ceiling" higher and it always comes back to bite me when they don't play to their potential.

C - performed best away from home, best record vs Quad 1+2, only one bad loss
B - similar to above
A - knocked them for being barely over .500 away from home and in Q1+2
D - Seems like the type of team that could either make a deep run or get first rounded. Beat a lot of good teams, but 2 bad losses shows inconsistency
E - struggled on the road, seemed to beat who they should and lose to better teams

 

[auror]

For me personally, C is the clear best. E is the clear worst.

Then I think A, B, and D are neck and neck. A has some nice top end categories (predictive, quad 1 , no bad losses). B is super solid all around. I think D's bad losses drag down it's otherwise great Q1+2 and combined with its poor predict, I think I have them 4th.

So I think I go C, A, B, D, E.

 

[UConNick]

Blind resume time

	A	B	C	D	E
Predict Ave	4	5	9	18	24
Resume Ave	15	15	10	16	17
SOS	27	45	60	37	12
OOC SOS	47	89	10	55	108
Away + Neutral	8-7	9-5	12-4	8-6	6-8
Quad 1 Wins	7	6	5	7	5
Quad 1+2	10-9	12-6	10-4	13-6	11-10
Bad Losses	0	1	1	2	0

What order do you put these teams in?

C, B, A, D, E

Without looking:

Spoiler

Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Xavier, Indiana?

 

[auror]

Without looking:

Spoiler

Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Xavier, Indiana?

Nailed it.

2 of these teams are likely to earn 3 seeds. 3 likely 4s.

 

[navery12]

I think I'd go C, B, A, D, E. Could convince me to flip A and B, but think there's a gap after the first 3

 

[UConNick]

In my own personal bracket projection I spent a few hours on yesterday instead of my job, I had them ordered like this on the s-curve:

11. C; 12. B; 13. D; 14. A; 15. E

Can’t remember the rationale on D ahead of A. Maybe it was before some injury news came out and I was assuming someone would be back who we now know won’t be?

And then UVA was my last on the 4-line even though I think they’re quite average. Just no one else jumping out at me from the group I had on the 5-line (SMC - maybe if they win tonight?, Miami, SDSU, Iowa St)

Heck, the 6s scared me more (Kentucky, TCU, Creighton, A&M). Made me think long and hard before giving into my biases higher up on the seed line.

 

[auggie22]

Beating Kentucky again en route to another final 4 run is filthy . I cannot think of a better hypothetical.

 

[JB75]

If they beat providence I don’t know how they are not a 3 for sure. I think they are a 3 now before the BET even starts

 

[Connecticut13]

Blind resume time

	A	B	C	D	E
Predict Ave	4	5	9	18	24
Resume Ave	15	15	10	16	17
SOS	27	45	60	37	12
OOC SOS	47	89	10	55	108
Away + Neutral	8-7	9-5	12-4	8-6	6-8
Quad 1 Wins	7	6	5	7	5
Quad 1+2	10-9	12-6	10-4	13-6	11-10
Bad Losses	0	1	1	2	0

What order do you put these teams in?

I'd actually go B, C, D, A, E

I'm going with B over C given more Quad 1 wins and better SOS - but both are very close in my opinion.

 

[jake14mw]

It's always interesting to look at seeding as either 1) rewarding teams for the results from the year, or 2) picking the the teams that are the best right now. If it's number 2, then it's easy seeding that way... Money talks, just take the Vegas odds to win the tournament and use that. This makes UConn the last 2 seed.

 

[Rico444]

It's always interesting to look at seeding as either 1) rewarding teams for the results from the year, or 2) picking the the teams that are the best right now. If it's number 2, then it's easy seeding that way... Money talks, just take the Vegas odds to win the tournament and use that. This makes UConn the last 2 seed.

The 3 seed in the East is the absolute best spot we could hope for. I would sign up for that right now and would take that over a 2 in another region.

 

[zls44]

C, A, B, D, E

Just checked, matched my S-Curve, was worried I'd be a hypocrite on this lol (im not)

 

[Waterbury]

Sorry if already asked in thread but what are the odds we get Albany? Since it looks like we are locked into a 4 or higher no matter what happens in the BET, is there any scenario where you guys could imagine that we'd play anywhere else?

 

[UConNick]

Sorry if already asked in thread but what are the odds we get Albany? Since it looks like we are locked into a 4 or higher no matter what happens in the BET, is there any scenario where you guys could imagine that we'd play anywhere else?

If we’re a 4 but behind both Xavier and Indiana on the s-curve, it’s possible they land in Albany and we get shipped to Orlando. But I’d hope we’re in front of both relatively comfortably at this point now that we seem to have righted the ship.

If we’re a 5 we’re actually still very likely to get Albany because we’d likely be top 2 of the 5-line, and therefore have an “open selection” of the 4-seed sites, and by bracketing principles be allocated to the one that makes the most geographic sense (after accounting for conference mates, so we’d almost assuredly be paired with IU’s pod in Albany), even if it’s a different Regional (Vegas, KC, etc.) for the second weekend. Plus the other teams on the 5-line (Miami, SDSU, etc.) would probably be Orlando instead of Albany because of geography.

This is why we were in Buffalo last year, giving Arkansas a theoretical “road game” had chalk held. We were 17 on the s-curve, a/k/a the highest 5-seed, so had a fully open slate of 4-seed slots to be placed in, and Buffalo was the most geographically advantageous of those 4-seed pods for us.

I’d say we’re about 90% for Albany on the first weekend.

And yes, I do love the “bracketing principles” and the whole process of building the bracket almost as much as watching the actual games lol

 

[auror]

If we’re a 4 but behind both Xavier and Indiana on the s-curve, it’s possible they land in Albany and we get shipped to Orlando. But I’d hope we’re in front of both relatively comfortably at this point now that we seem to have righted the ship.

I haven't done out the permutations for everybody, but they'd both take Des Moines or Columbus, OH over Albany. So our closest competition for the location have it as their 3rd choice. Each site takes 2 pods.

I guess let's go through it.

Kansas wants Des Moines.
Lunardi has Houston in Columbus, but I think and Palm has them going to Birmingham.
Alabama - Birmingham. (Birmingham now closed.)
UCLA - Sacramento.
Purdue - Columbus. (If Houston goes Columbus, it'd be closed, but we'll keep it open).
Arizona - Sacramento. (Sacramento closed.)
Texas - Denver, Would probably go Birmingham if available.
Baylor - Denver (Denver closed).
Marquette - Des Moines. (Des Moines closed.)
Kansas St . Two closest spots closed - Columbus. (Columbus closed). K St. would go to Denver if Texas didn't, so the loop closes and it's fine for our circumstances).

So at this point it seems very likely that Birmingham, Columbus, Sacramento, Denver, and Des Moines will all be closed by the time we get to "our range". Albany and Greensboro have nobody there yet.

Gonzaga - Four closest spots all closed - Albany.
Tennessee - Greensboro.

UConn - Albany. Albany closed.

So yeah. It looks like by mid 3-seed that Des Moines and Columbus will likely close. Greensboro is actually a couple hundred miles closer to both Indiana and Xavier than Albany, though. And it seems equally not in demand until the Midwest locations close.

I think it's strongly likely we get Albany. I think we'd have to fall behind two of Indiana, Xavier, or VIrginia (and stay behind Gonzaga) to not get Albany. And as Nick mentioned, if we fall to a 5, we get Albany once again.

So the literal only circumstance (barring abject craziness and everyone being way off the comittee) where we don't get Albany is if we are the #4 4-seed. For that to happen, we probably have to lose to Providence and the other teams make runs. So I'm just going to say. If we beat Providence, we'll be in Albany.