Seeding Outlook

[UConNick]

I haven't done out the permutations for everybody, but they'd both take Des Moines or Columbus, OH over Albany. So our closest competition for the location have it as their 3rd choice. Each site takes 2 pods.

I guess let's go through it.

Kansas wants Des Moines.
Lunardi has Houston in Columbus, but I think and Palm has them going to Birmingham.
Alabama - Birmingham. (Birmingham now closed.)
UCLA - Sacramento.
Purdue - Columbus. (If Houston goes Columbus, it'd be closed, but we'll keep it open).
Arizona - Sacramento. (Sacramento closed.)
Texas - Denver, Would probably go Birmingham if available.
Baylor - Denver (Denver closed).
Marquette - Des Moines. (Des Moines closed.)
Kansas St . Two closest spots closed - Columbus. (Columbus closed). K St. would go to Denver if Texas didn't, so the loop closes and it's fine for our circumstances).

So at this point it seems very likely that Birmingham, Columbus, Sacramento, Denver, and Des Moines will all be closed by the time we get to "our range". Albany and Greensboro have nobody there yet.

Gonzaga - Four closest spots all closed - Albany.
Tennessee - Greensboro.

UConn - Albany. Albany closed.

So yeah. It looks like by mid 3-seed that Des Moines and Columbus will likely close. Greensboro is actually a couple hundred miles closer to both Indiana and Xavier than Albany, though. And it seems equally not in demand until the Midwest locations close.

I think it's strongly likely we get Albany. I think we'd have to fall behind two of Indiana, Xavier, or VIrginia not get Albany. And as you mentioned, if we fall to a 5, we get Albany once again.

So the literal only circumstance (barring abject craziness and everyone being way off the comittee) where we don't get Albany is if we are the #4 4-seed. For that to happen, we probably have to lose to Providence and the other teams make runs. So I'm just going to say. If we beat Providence, we'll be in Albany.

Yup, that’s exactly how I had it in my Monday projection:

1. (1MW) KU - Des Moines
2. (1S) UH - Birmingham
3. (1E) ALA - Birmingham
4. (1W) Purdue - Columbus
5. (2W) UCLA - Sacramento
6. (2S) TEX - Denver
7. (2E) Baylor - Denver
8. (2MW) ARIZ - Sacramento
9. (3MW) Marquette - Des Moines
10. (3W) K-State - Columbus
11. (3S) Gonzaga - Albany (them’s the breaks)
12. (3E) UConn - Albany
13. (4S) Xavier - Greensboro
14. (4MW) Tenn - Greensboro
15. (4E) IU - Orlando
16. (4W) UVA - Orlando

If given the s-curve by the committee, building the actual bracket really would not be challenging at all.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

@auror @UConNick This has no impact on UConn, but Arizona to Denver and Gonzaga to Sacramento makes more sense. Put a Texas school in Orlando

 

[auror]

@auror @UConNick This has no impact on UConn, but Arizona to Denver and Gonzaga to Sacramento makes more sense. Put a Texas school in Orlando

By driving it's similar either way, but technically Sac is closer by 30 miles to Arizona at least by Google Maps. They could do your way to give Gonzaga a break, but we'll see.

 

[bendm]

9 loss Baylor ahead of us would make angry.

100% disagree. i would LOVE to be the 3 seed in the same region where Baylor is the 2 seed (or vice versa of course). Baylor is the only 2 seed that doesnt scare me.

 

[UConNick]

@auror @UConNick This has no impact on UConn, but Arizona to Denver and Gonzaga to Sacramento makes more sense. Put a Texas school in Orlando

While that technically does make a lot of sense in the grand scheme of things, sites for the first weekend happen in a vacuum. You go down the the s-curve, one by one, and place each team in their most preferred (or best remaining) site regardless of what sites it opens or closes for other teams further down the s-curve.

Baylor and Texas are both 98% going to be ahead of Gonzaga on the s-curve and would take probably Birmingham first, but then Denver second.

They’re also both likely to be ahead of AZ in the s-curve, so even if AZ has Denver first and Sacramento second (entirely possible), it won’t matter, since Denver will have been closed by the two Texas schools, and they’ll then take Sacramento, locking out the two “west” sites and giving the Zags the short end of the stick. Happens to someone every year.

This is why as auror and others have said, we really need to be ahead of 2 of X, IU, and UVA, our closest competition for Albany, to ensure we have it. Though to be fair, we don’t know their preferences.

I believe each team in contention for a top-four seed sends the committee a ranking of the sites, from their most desirable to least desirable, and they then use that to allocate.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

While that technically does make a lot of sense in the grand scheme of things, sites for the first weekend happen in a vacuum. You go down the the s-curve, one by one, and place each team in their most preferred (or best remaining) site regardless of what sites it opens or closes for other teams further down the s-curve.

Baylor and Texas are both 98% going to be ahead of Gonzaga on the s-curve and would take probably Birmingham first, but then Denver second.

They’re also both likely to be ahead of AZ in the s-curve, so even if AZ has Denver first and Sacramento second (entirely possible), it won’t matter, since Denver will have been closed by the two Texas schools, and they’ll then take Sacramento, locking out the two “west” sites and giving the Zags the short end of the stick. Happens to someone every year.

This is why as auror and others have said, we really need to be ahead of 2 of X, IU, and UVA, our closest competition for Albany, to ensure we have it. Though to be fair, we don’t know their preferences.

I believe each team in contention for a top-four seed sends the committee a ranking of the sites, from their most desirable to least desirable, and they then use that to allocate.

Makes sense using NCAA rationale. I wish they would look grand scheme though haha. Quick search shows me Austin-Orlando is only an extra 2 hours of driving, and a cheaper flight. If a fan is willing to drive 14 hours to one place you would think they'd be OK driving 16 hours.

 

[UConNick]

Makes sense using NCAA rationale. I wish they would look grand scheme though haha. Quick search shows me Austin-Orlando is only an extra 2 hours of driving, and a cheaper flight. If a fan is willing to drive 14 hours to one place you would think they'd be OK driving 16 hours.

lol I definitely agree. NCAA gonna NCAA.

The flight thing’s a really good point, though. That sounds like a factor schools might consider when ranking their preferred locations.

Fortunately, we only have a couple more days to wait before it’s all revealed. As long as we’re in Albany I don’t really care if the other 15 top-4 seeds are playing on the moon for the first weekend.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

As long as we’re in Albany I don’t really care if the other 15 top-4 seeds are playing on the moon for the first weekend.

Agree. But as a fellow amateur bracketologist you may know these are the things that keep you up at night