Seeding Outlook

[HooperScooper]

We’re going to be on the three line.

Jerry Palm has UConn as a 3 seed already. Just keep winning and things will sort themselves out.

Indiana and Xavier were No. 4 seeds in the eyes of the committee last week, but each of them lost this week and dropped down to the No. 5 line. They were replaced by UConn and Miami. In fact, the Huskies are now the last of the No. 3 seeds. They were able to take advantage of losses by Tennessee and Virginia as well. Each of those teams dropped to the No. 4 line, while Gonzaga also moved up to a No. 3.

Bracketology: Kansas State moves up to a No. 2 seed, bumping Baylor in NCAA Tournament bracket projection

UConn and Miami jump to No. 3 seeds in Jerry Palm's latest Bracketology

www.cbssports.com

Palm's Bracket:

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

 

[auror]

Good points, but Houston is the Final Four location. The West regional is Vegas

Yeah duh. Read the page wrong and ignored my head saying "that looks wrong".

 

[HooperScooper]

Jerry Palm has UConn as a 3 seed already. Just keep winning and things will sort themselves out.

Indiana and Xavier were No. 4 seeds in the eyes of the committee last week, but each of them lost this week and dropped down to the No. 5 line. They were replaced by UConn and Miami. In fact, the Huskies are now the last of the No. 3 seeds. They were able to take advantage of losses by Tennessee and Virginia as well. Each of those teams dropped to the No. 4 line, while Gonzaga also moved up to a No. 3.

Bracketology: Kansas State moves up to a No. 2 seed, bumping Baylor in NCAA Tournament bracket projection

UConn and Miami jump to No. 3 seeds in Jerry Palm's latest Bracketology

www.cbssports.com

Palm's Bracket:

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

Interesting that Mike DeCourcy has the same first round matchup but with UConn a seed lower and Yale a seed higher.

 

[UConNick]

I just don’t trust this freaking committee.

We already know that:

1. They seemed to not think too highly of the Big East based on the reveal (Marquette being a 4 instead of a 3, us being a “5” instead of a 4)

2. They couldn’t give less of a crap about the last couple days of conference tournaments, i.e., when we’d hope to have our chances at a bunch more Q1 wins. They’ll probably have the bracket’s final form locked by Wednesday night that week and will only make changes for bid stealers.

I think a 4 is more than attainable. Beyond that? I’m not so sure now after thinking more about it. Deserving of more than a 4? If we play our game and win what’s in front of us between now and Selection Sunday, that’s for sure, committee be damned.

I don’t think it’s right, at all, but it’s a situation we should prepare ourselves to still suffer even if we’re lucky enough to make it to 27-7.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Bumping this, now that we've put up 2 more wins and the possibilities have narrowed. We are currently firmly on the #4 line.

4-0: At least a #3, with a shot at a #2 depending on other conference tournaments (probably needing Kansas to win out and other Big XII contenders to stumble)

3-1 or 2-1: Probably sneaking onto the #3 line

2-2 or 1-1: Treading water on the #4 line

1-2: Should still be a #4

0-2: Likely slip to #5

Importantly, at this point, it's hard to see us finishing any worse than a #5 seed, which is geographically protected.

 

[connVA]

Bumping this, now that we've put up 2 more wins and the possibilities have narrowed. We are currently firmly on the #4 line.

4-0: At least a #3, with a shot at a #2 depending on other conference tournaments (probably needing Kansas to win out and other Big XII contenders to stumble)

3-1 or 2-1: Probably sneaking onto the #3 line

2-2 or 1-1: Treading water on the #4 line

1-2: Should still be a #4

0-2: Likely slip to #5

Importantly, at this point, it's hard to see us finishing any worse than a #5 seed, which is geographically protected.

Speaking of geographically protected, Lunardi's latest bracketology update has Gonzaga playing Colgate in Albany in a 3-14 game. I didn't think the committee could do that to a 3 seed. I think Joe needs to troubleshoot his spreadsheet.

 

[auror]

Bart Torvik has a tourney cast. We can plug these @Tenspro2002 scenarios in and see if we get the same results

Starting right now, projected last 4 seed.

6-0: would likely include wins over 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette - Last 3 seed

5-1: either running the table in the regular season and making the BET finals - 4
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - 4

4-1: 3-0 regular season + BET semis - 4
4-2: 2-1 regular season + BET finals -

3-2: 2-1 regular season + BET semis - 5
3-1: 3-0 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
3-3: 1-2 regular season + BET finals - 4

2-2: 2-1 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
2-3: 1-2 regular season + BET semis -- 6

1-3: 1-2 regular season + lose 1st BET game - Last 6

Worse: Losing out - 9

Starting right now, projected 2nd 4 seed.

4-0: would include wins over Nova + likely 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette = 3rd 3 seed (up 1 spot from last time).

3-1: either beat Nova and making the BET finals - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).

2-1: Win Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Unchanged from last time).
2-2: Loss Nova + BET finals - First 4 seed (up slightly from last time).

1-2: Beat Nova + lose 1st round BET- 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).
1-1: Lose Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).

0-2: Losing out - 3rd 4 seed (up 5 seedlines from previous worst case scenario).

Thoughts:
Taking care of business in those 2 games and guaranteeing good opponents in BET has simplified our seeding considerably. In Torvik's computer's world, we're a 3 if we win at least 3 games and a 4 otherwise.

 

[UCLJ0211]

Starting right now, projected 2nd 4 seed.

4-0: would include wins over Nova + likely 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette = 3rd 3 seed (up 1 spot from last time).

3-1: either beat Nova and making the BET finals - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).

2-1: Win Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Unchanged from last time).
2-2: Loss Nova + BET finals - First 4 seed (up slightly from last time).

1-2: Beat Nova + lose 1st round BET- 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).
1-1: Lose Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).

0-2: Losing out - 3rd 4 seed (up 5 seedlines from previous worst case scenario).

Thoughts:
Taking care of business in those 2 games and guaranteeing good opponents in BET has simplified our seeding considerably. In Torvik's computer's world, we're a 3 if we win at least 3 games and a 4 otherwise.

If we go 4-0 and get 3 more quad 1 wins we should be a 2 seed. That would give us a 27-7 record, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, and a top 7 NET and KenPom. How would we not be one of the 8 best teams at that point?

 

[Peacefrog]

If we go 4-0 and get 3 more quad 1 wins we should be a 2 seed. That would give us a 27-7 record, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, and a top 7 NET and KenPom. How would we not be one of the 8 best teams at that point?

Plus recency bias. A splashy BET Championship plus an 8-game winning streak (plus our excellent metrics) would seem to deserve a #2 seed. Of course it always depends somewhat on what other teams do but I'd be surprised if winning out didn't get us a #2.

 

[auror]

If we go 4-0 and get 3 more quad 1 wins we should be a 2 seed. That would give us a 27-7 record, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, and a top 7 NET and KenPom. How would we not be one of the 8 best teams at that point?

Those results are an average of simulations from Torvik.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. All the 2 seeds already have either better metrics than that (UCLA/Purdue) or more Q1 wins than 8 (Texas, Baylor, Arizona). Also none of them have a Q3+ loss. And they are going to play more games, too.

We may have a shot at a 2. But maybe not. If Texas plays Baylor in the B12 tournament title, good chance we don't have a shot at it even with winning the tourny.

Every committee is different. Some actually value winning conference tournaments, some literally don't even move the board at all after the results.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Doesn’t matter as long as we play in the East

 

[Classof87]

It would be a major disservice to any 1 seed to have to play us as the 4 in MSG. So I can’t see that happening.

The committee made that mistake once, they won’t do it again, imo

 

[Blue Blood]

Feels like the floor is now 4 make the final 3 win it I think we're a 2. Other teams are dropping all over given our advanced metrics 8 wins en route to selection Sunday gets us to the 2 line imo.

 

[caw]

right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???

 

[MrSec224]

right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???

Think its
Bama KU Houston UCLA
Purdue Texas Arizona Baylor
Marquette Gonzaga

Then the race to that 3 line is Kansas St Tenn UConn. I have no idea if we have officially jumped them yet.

Ideally, whether a 3 or a 4, I think our top priority is an Albany site. 3 def gets it. 4 we just cant fall behind Xavier and Indiana. Which we should safely be above Indiana but if its tight with Xavier and the committee sees they beat us twice, things will get sweaty

(I think we should be a 3 but I don’t trust the Southern bias of the committee)

 

[Huskyforlife]

right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???

9 loss Baylor ahead of us would make angry.

 

[caw]

9 loss Baylor ahead of us would make angry.

All Q1 losses and they are still 11-9 in Q1 games. I'm not saying they are necessarily ahead of UConn if UConn wins the BET but that is the team you have to look at for UConn to jump. Even then UConn would probably need to jump Gonzaga and Texas also. That is just a tough road to get a two seed. I'm not even sure the committee has UConn as three right now, but I would bet that if UConn is a three they are the third, or fourth three seed.

 

[BleedHuskyBlu]

I know it won’t happen especially know that every bracketology has us vs Yale but I would loveeeee a first round matchup vs Yale. Our athleticism would suffocate them

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.

 

[EROCK CONN]

Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.

You are not the only one…. lower probability event for sure. Fingers crossed

 

[HeGotGame]

right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???

Tennessee, Kansas St, Xavier, IU

 

[firstnline]

Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.

I'm getting that vibe too. Alabama has nothing wrapped up since they lost yesterday. Losing early in the SEC tourney and us winning the BET is our longshot ticket to a number 1 since we already beat Bama.

 

[EROCK CONN]

I’d take a 2 or 3 seed, or even a 7 in the east over a 1 anywhere else.

 

[ucp990411]

Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.

You are not alone. I agree

 

[willie99]

Barring an early exit, we're a three shooting for a two

Winning the BET, we're a two.

The committee cannot overlook both metrics, their standard barrier, and an 11-1 finish against top tier competition

I believe, and that puts us in MSG. Save some money people, we're going to need everyone on board