Seeding Outlook | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Seeding Outlook

Tenspro2002 said:
Bumping this, now that we've put up 2 more wins and the possibilities have narrowed. We are currently firmly on the #4 line.

4-0: At least a #3, with a shot at a #2 depending on other conference tournaments (probably needing Kansas to win out and other Big XII contenders to stumble)

3-1 or 2-1: Probably sneaking onto the #3 line

2-2 or 1-1: Treading water on the #4 line

1-2: Should still be a #4

0-2: Likely slip to #5

Importantly, at this point, it's hard to see us finishing any worse than a #5 seed, which is geographically protected.
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Speaking of geographically protected, Lunardi's latest bracketology update has Gonzaga playing Colgate in Albany in a 3-14 game. I didn't think the committee could do that to a 3 seed. I think Joe needs to troubleshoot his spreadsheet.
 
auror said:
Bart Torvik has a tourney cast. We can plug these @Tenspro2002 scenarios in and see if we get the same results

Starting right now, projected last 4 seed.

6-0: would likely include wins over 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette - Last 3 seed

5-1: either running the table in the regular season and making the BET finals - 4
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - 4

4-1: 3-0 regular season + BET semis - 4
4-2: 2-1 regular season + BET finals -

3-2: 2-1 regular season + BET semis - 5
3-1: 3-0 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
3-3: 1-2 regular season + BET finals - 4

2-2: 2-1 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
2-3: 1-2 regular season + BET semis -- 6

1-3: 1-2 regular season + lose 1st BET game - Last 6

Worse: Losing out - 9
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Starting right now, projected 2nd 4 seed.

4-0: would include wins over Nova + likely 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette = 3rd 3 seed (up 1 spot from last time).

3-1: either beat Nova and making the BET finals - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).

2-1: Win Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Unchanged from last time).
2-2: Loss Nova + BET finals - First 4 seed (up slightly from last time).

1-2: Beat Nova + lose 1st round BET- 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).
1-1: Lose Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).

0-2: Losing out - 3rd 4 seed (up 5 seedlines from previous worst case scenario).

Thoughts:
Taking care of business in those 2 games and guaranteeing good opponents in BET has simplified our seeding considerably. In Torvik's computer's world, we're a 3 if we win at least 3 games and a 4 otherwise.
 
auror said:
Starting right now, projected 2nd 4 seed.

4-0: would include wins over Nova + likely 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette = 3rd 3 seed (up 1 spot from last time).

3-1: either beat Nova and making the BET finals - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - Last 3 seed (up 1 spot and crosses the seedline).

2-1: Win Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Unchanged from last time).
2-2: Loss Nova + BET finals - First 4 seed (up slightly from last time).

1-2: Beat Nova + lose 1st round BET- 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).
1-1: Lose Nova + BET semis - 2nd 4 seed (Up a couple spots and a seedline).

0-2: Losing out - 3rd 4 seed (up 5 seedlines from previous worst case scenario).

Thoughts:
Taking care of business in those 2 games and guaranteeing good opponents in BET has simplified our seeding considerably. In Torvik's computer's world, we're a 3 if we win at least 3 games and a 4 otherwise.
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If we go 4-0 and get 3 more quad 1 wins we should be a 2 seed. That would give us a 27-7 record, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, and a top 7 NET and KenPom. How would we not be one of the 8 best teams at that point?
 
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UCLJ0211 said:
If we go 4-0 and get 3 more quad 1 wins we should be a 2 seed. That would give us a 27-7 record, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, and a top 7 NET and KenPom. How would we not be one of the 8 best teams at that point?
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Plus recency bias. A splashy BET Championship plus an 8-game winning streak (plus our excellent metrics) would seem to deserve a #2 seed. Of course it always depends somewhat on what other teams do but I'd be surprised if winning out didn't get us a #2.
 
UCLJ0211 said:
If we go 4-0 and get 3 more quad 1 wins we should be a 2 seed. That would give us a 27-7 record, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, and a top 7 NET and KenPom. How would we not be one of the 8 best teams at that point?
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Those results are an average of simulations from Torvik.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. All the 2 seeds already have either better metrics than that (UCLA/Purdue) or more Q1 wins than 8 (Texas, Baylor, Arizona). Also none of them have a Q3+ loss. And they are going to play more games, too.

We may have a shot at a 2. But maybe not. If Texas plays Baylor in the B12 tournament title, good chance we don't have a shot at it even with winning the tourny.

Every committee is different. Some actually value winning conference tournaments, some literally don't even move the board at all after the results.
 
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right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???
 
caw said:
right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???
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Think its
Bama KU Houston UCLA
Purdue Texas Arizona Baylor
Marquette Gonzaga

Then the race to that 3 line is Kansas St Tenn UConn. I have no idea if we have officially jumped them yet.

Ideally, whether a 3 or a 4, I think our top priority is an Albany site. 3 def gets it. 4 we just cant fall behind Xavier and Indiana. Which we should safely be above Indiana but if its tight with Xavier and the committee sees they beat us twice, things will get sweaty

(I think we should be a 3 but I don’t trust the Southern bias of the committee)
 
Huskyforlife said:
9 loss Baylor ahead of us would make angry.
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All Q1 losses and they are still 11-9 in Q1 games. I'm not saying they are necessarily ahead of UConn if UConn wins the BET but that is the team you have to look at for UConn to jump. Even then UConn would probably need to jump Gonzaga and Texas also. That is just a tough road to get a two seed. I'm not even sure the committee has UConn as three right now, but I would bet that if UConn is a three they are the third, or fourth three seed.
 
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I know it won’t happen especially know that every bracketology has us vs Yale but I would loveeeee a first round matchup vs Yale. Our athleticism would suffocate them
 
Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.
 
caw said:
right now UConn should be a three pretty solidly.

Still think it’s Bama, KU, Houston, UCLA in some order.

Then MU, Purdue, Baylor and Zona though Baylor looked bad today they should still be on the two line.

Then Texas, Gonazaga UConn and ???
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Tennessee, Kansas St, Xavier, IU
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.
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I'm getting that vibe too. Alabama has nothing wrapped up since they lost yesterday. Losing early in the SEC tourney and us winning the BET is our longshot ticket to a number 1 since we already beat Bama.
 
I’d take a 2 or 3 seed, or even a 7 in the east over a 1 anywhere else.
 
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CardiacAndre7 said:
Am I the only one that thinks if we win the BET and other things fall our way we could be a 1 seed? I understand it may take a bunch of dominoes, but the parity is incredible this year.
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You are not alone. I agree
 
Barring an early exit, we're a three shooting for a two

Winning the BET, we're a two.

The committee cannot overlook both metrics, their standard barrier, and an 11-1 finish against top tier competition

I believe, and that puts us in MSG. Save some money people, we're going to need everyone on board
 
This is how I view it:

L? 4 seed
W/L? 3 seed
W/W/L? 3 seed
W/W/W? 2 seed

In terms of the region, I think being the #1 4 seed or the #1 3 seed is the best outcome. So if we beat PC and lose to Marquette, we might get the last 3 seed in which case we are at the mercy of the committee…
 
aburks41 said:
This is how I view it:

L? 4 seed
W/L? 3 seed
W/W/L? 3 seed
W/W/W? 2 seed

In terms of the region, I think being the #1 4 seed or the #1 3 seed is the best outcome. So if we beat PC and lose to Marquette, we might get the last 3 seed in which case we are at the mercy of the committee…
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First things first: get Albany as a 2/3 should be the goal. You play 14 seed rather than 13. In the second round, the 6/11 teams are always preferable to the 5/12—and we avoid the 1 even longer.

It's the S-curve after that, so more luck. Want to be slotted opposed to whichever 1-seed is closest east. Seems most likely to be Purdue.

But at this stage, since we're not in discussion for a 1, the goal has to be Albany with the 1 on the other side of the bracket.
 
They should be a 2 seed, if the committee realizes they were the best team in the country, hit a mid season lul, then got their mojo back at the right time.

But if they were a 2 seed, they’d be the lowest 2, thus matched up with the #1 overall (Houston), putting them outside the East region.

Every team is beatable. They have a 3 seed locked up now, so it’s a matter of continuing their good play.
 
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aburks41 said:
This is how I view it:

L? 4 seed
W/L? 3 seed
W/W/L? 3 seed
W/W/W? 2 seed

In terms of the region, I think being the #1 4 seed or the #1 3 seed is the best outcome. So if we beat PC and lose to Marquette, we might get the last 3 seed in which case we are at the mercy of the committee…
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Most likely scenario
 
FWIW most sites have us as a 3 seed right now. If we get to the be final even if we lose I think we will be no worse than a 3 seed and possibly 2 seed!
 
Remember guys. What happens from friday on has very little bearing on seeding. Either good or bad, save for auto bid stealers. I dont think we move above a 3 regardless if BET outcome
 
win BET, Alabama is huge...we find a region in need of a 2. That slip at home vs. Xavier doesn't help; but they may be a team we have to play through in BET conquest.
 
ClifSpliffy said:
seeding - take a combo of ap/coaches poll, divide by 4, keep it or add or subtract one. seeding.
already weeks into seed mania, it's only going to get worser.
all seems so very much like 'and, they're off!'

cuz, u know, it's all soo dang simple.
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that Monty Python clip made my weekend. proving perhaps, "i'm not dead"
 
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