Seeding Outlook

[Tenspro2002]

Expanding on the KenPom thread: with only 3 regular season games left followed by the BET -- and our place in the standings fairly secure -- we can start making some reasonable projections about seeding based on the remaining outcomes. This is predicated on the fact that our win vs. Providence and losses by Indiana, Xavier, etc., has us on the 4 line right now.

6-0: would likely include wins over 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette, bringing us to 27-7, 9 quad 1 wins, top 5 in all the metrics, and (seemingly more important for the Committee, as absurd as it is) a ranking around #8-10 -- at least a 3 seed with a good shot at a 2 depending on other conferences

5-1: either running the table in the regular season and making the BET finals, or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET, probably slightly moving up the rankings -- solid #3

4-1: 3-0 regular season + BET semis -- #3/4 borderline

4-2: 2-1 regular season + BET finals -- securely #4

3-2: 2-1 regular season + BET semis -- treading water, most likely #4
3-1: 3-0 regular season + lose 1st BET game -- ditto
3-3: 1-2 regular season + BET finals -- ditto, but very unlikely path

2-2: 2-1 regular season + lose 1st BET game -- slip to borderline #4/5

2-3: 1-2 regular season + BET semis -- probably a #5

1-3: 1-2 regular season + lose 1st BET game -- #5/6

Worse: definitely #6, probably not worse than that


For what it's worth, I would consider the 3-2 scenario the most likely one right now.

 

[wheelerdog]

 

[Scoe]

That’s right also don’t quit and be a cry baby in press conferences.

 

[auror]

Bart Torvik has a tourney cast. We can plug these @Tenspro2002 scenarios in and see if we get the same results

Starting right now, projected last 4 seed.

6-0: would likely include wins over 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette - Last 3 seed

5-1: either running the table in the regular season and making the BET finals - 4
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - 4

4-1: 3-0 regular season + BET semis - 4
4-2: 2-1 regular season + BET finals -

3-2: 2-1 regular season + BET semis - 5
3-1: 3-0 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
3-3: 1-2 regular season + BET finals - 4

2-2: 2-1 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
2-3: 1-2 regular season + BET semis -- 6

1-3: 1-2 regular season + lose 1st BET game - Last 6

Worse: Losing out - 9

 

[Chin Diesel]

I'm not going through all the permutations, combinations or possibilities.

UConn will be a 3 seed in the east and play at Albany and MSG.

 

[uconnfan68]

I'm not going through all the permutations, combinations or possibilities.

UConn will be a 3 seed in the east and play at Albany and MSG.

I second this.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Bart Torvik has a tourney cast. We can plug these @Tenspro2002 scenarios in and see if we get the same results

Starting right now, projected last 4 seed.

6-0: would likely include wins over 3 of Creighton/Xavier/Providence/Marquette - Last 3 seed

5-1: either running the table in the regular season and making the BET finals - 4
Or stumbling against Villanova/St. Johns and then winning the BET - 4

4-1: 3-0 regular season + BET semis - 4
4-2: 2-1 regular season + BET finals -

3-2: 2-1 regular season + BET semis - 5
3-1: 3-0 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
3-3: 1-2 regular season + BET finals - 4

2-2: 2-1 regular season + lose 1st BET game - 5
2-3: 1-2 regular season + BET semis -- 6

1-3: 1-2 regular season + lose 1st BET game - Last 6

Worse: Losing out - 9

Probably about right, but the last week of the regular season and the weak of the conference tournaments can be as crazy as the first week of the NCAA's. At least 1 Top 15-20 team is going to completely cake its pants in the next two weeks (Xavier is a prime candidate) while some borderline Top 25, middle of the pack P5 school will go on a run (Michigan State?).

 

[ucp990411]

I am looking for our 2nd 14 game winning streak of the season. Figure it out

 

[auror]

Probably about right, but the last week of the regular season and the weak of the conference tournaments can be as crazy as the first week of the NCAA's. At least 1 Top 15-20 team is going to completely cake its pants in the next two weeks (Xavier is a prime candidate) while some borderline Top 25, middle of the pack P5 school will go on a run (Michigan State?).

Yep plenty of wildcards remaining.

 

[Palatine]

The committee loves to send us West.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

seeding - take a combo of ap/coaches poll, divide by 4, keep it or add or subtract one. seeding.
already weeks into seed mania, it's only going to get worser.
all seems so very much like 'and, they're off!'

cuz, u know, it's all soo dang simple.

 

[bendm]

if we win out and finish 13-7 i'm wondering if we can possibly get up to a 3 seed in the BET.
xavier swept us so we cant jump them unless they finish 0-3, so lets take them out of the equation. but could we jump pc and creighton if they both go 1-2 and we all finish at 13-7? lets go through the BET seeding tiebreaking procedures

Multiple-Team Tie (3 or more teams)
If three or more teams are tied, the following steps are taken in order:
1. Teams are viewed as a “mini-conference” when comparing head-to-head results. The team, or teams, with the best winning percentage vs. the other teams in the mini-conference gains the advantage, and the team, or teams, with the worst winning percentage vs. the other teams in the mini-conference is/are seeded the lowest. Only common opponents will be considered.

we split with PC and Creighton and they split with each other, so 1.d. applies

1.d. If all teams in the mini-conference have the same mini-conference winning percentage or have no common opponents within the mini-conference, proceed to Step 2 below.

2. Compare each team’s winning percentage vs. the team or group of tied teams occupying the highest position in the standings.

UConn and PC split with Marquette but Creighton got swept so Creighton gets the 5 seed. That leaves UConn and PC.

2. If two teams have the exact same advantage (i.e., having the same and better winning percentage against a compared team relative to their mini-conference), they are separated at that point by the two-way tiebreaker procedure.

Two-Team Tie:
If two teams are tied, the following steps are taken in order:

1. Regular season head-to-head results.

UConn and PC split so proceed to Step 2.

2. Each team’s winning percentage vs. the team or tied [group of] teams occupying the highest position in the standings, not including teams which have fallen below the 10 conference game threshold. Only common opponents will be considered. If an advantage is not determined, proceed to the next team or group of tied teams in the standings for comparison. Continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

1) We both split with Marquette;
2) if PC loses their remaining game against Xavier then we will have both split with Xavier;
3) We split with each other;
4) We both split with Creighton;
5) If PC loses their remaining game to Hall then we will have both split with Hall.
6) If we win our remaining game against Nova we will have both swept Nova;
7) If we win our remaining game against SJU we will have both split with SJU;
8) We both swept Butler
9) If we win our remaining game against Depaul we will have both swept DePaul.
10) If PC wins their remaining game against GTown we will have both swept Gtown.

No advantage determined after this step or any of the other two-team ties, so:

7. Coin Flip. If any ties still exist after implementing all of the above tie-breaking procedures, a coin flip is required. The coin flip takes place at the BIG EAST Conference office (or may be conducted virtually) immediately following the conclusion of the last regular season conference game. Commissioner Val Ackerman or her designee will administer this procedure. This session is open to the media and to athletic department representatives of the tied teams.

In sum, if we win out, Creighton goes 1-2, and PC goes 1-2 with loses to Xavier and Hall, then the #3 seed is determined by a coin flip.

 

[kobebeanbryant]

I'm not going through all the permutations, combinations or possibilities.

UConn will be a 3 seed in the east and play at Albany and MSG.

they won’t let that happen again. only way we get put in the East is as a 1 seed.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

'bracketology.'
back in uni days, i worked in the mailroom of a fancy corp one summer, thinking 'time to start doing grownup stuff.' dumb idea. waste of a perfectly good summer. anyway, i became fast pals with an 'executive secretary,' beyond fine- el fuego! really nice person as well.
so, one lunch time, as we sat in her car doing our best impression of spicoli and the boys in the van, i ask her 'any plans other than this job?' she sez
'yes, im in cosmetology school.' i said sumthin like 'sweet! ... ummm, what's cosmetology?' she sez 'i help people to look better.'
since then, every single time i hear 'bracketology' i think cosmetology, tho sumtimes i hear 'racketology.'

that mj fox movie where he starts out in the mailroom is a good movie.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

this one.

 

[firstnline]

The committee loves to send us West.

And we usually come back with hardware

 

[UConNick]

they won’t let that happen again. only way we get put in the East is as a 1 seed.

As I said in an earlier post I selfishly wish had got more traction, unless we get to number 9 in the S-curve (top 3 seed, so would have first choice of regionals on that seed line), it’s very unlikely we’ll get the East, due to bracketing principles and all the Big 12 teams that will have to be separated up.

If we can get to the top 16, at least, however, we’d be all but guaranteed Albany for the opening weekend since there aren’t a lot of geographic rivals for those two slots among the teams in contention this year.

 

[kobebeanbryant]

As I said in an earlier post I selfishly wish had got more traction, unless we get to number 9 in the S-curve (top 3 seed, so would have first choice of regionals on that seed line), it’s very unlikely we’ll get the East, due to bracketing principles and all the Big 12 teams that will have to be separated up.

If we can get to the top 16, at least, however, we’d be all but guaranteed Albany for the opening weekend since there aren’t a lot of geographic rivals for those two slots among the teams in contention this year.

It would be a major disservice to any 1 seed to have to play us as the 4 in MSG. So I can’t see that happening.

 

[OkaForPrez]

It would be a major disservice to any 1 seed to have to play us as the 4 in MSG. So I can’t see that happening.

We’re going to be on the three line.

 

[bendm]

up to a 4 in the west in the latest bracketology.

on a related note, and maybe it's just me, but i think it's ridiculous that WVU is still in even though they are 5-10 in conference. i dont care how good the big12 is. teams should be automatically disqualified from the tourney if they are >2 games under .500 in conference play. if they dont like it then join the AAC. in 2011 when 11 BE teams made the tourney, they were all .500 or better in conference play.

 

[UCLJ0211]

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

I’d sign up for this bracket right now

 

[August_West]

they won’t let that happen again. only way we get put in the East is as a 1 seed.

I will be shocked if we are in the East region. We had to earn that as a 1. I agree they will not hamstring higher seeded teams by putting us there. I would love it if they did, but I have a hard time believing they would. We actually have a better chance being in the east as a 5 or lower than 2-4.

 

[auror]

I will be shocked if we are in the East region. We had to earn that as a 1. I agree they will not hamstring higher seeded teams by putting us there. I would love it if they did, but I have a hard time believing they would. We actually have a better chance being in the east as a 5 or lower than 2-4.

Going to depend where we fall on the S-curve. We may want to be the best 4 as opposed to the worst 3, depending on the geo locations of the other teams on our seedline (Is MSG worth playing a 1 instead of a 2? The 1s don't really scare me).

There's not a lot of good East coast teams this year. So we may slot in there by default if it works out that the other teams are better fits elsewhere. Kansas City and Louisville are going to be fought over and Houston will be more popular than NYC, too.

None of UCLA, Baylor, Texas, Arizona, Gonzaga, Iowa St, Indiana, Kansas St, Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana, Xavier or Miami would choose NYC first.

I think UVA is the only school in the 2-5 seed range that wants NYC other than us. So as long as we avoid finishing behind UVA on the same seedline and stick to a top 4 seed I think we'll get NYC.

The only other monkey wrench is if any of Texas, Baylor, Kansas St, Iowa St play in B12 tournament they couldn't be 2/3 in the same region. This could actually be a way for us to slide up into the 3 seed if they have to push one of these teams down to a 4.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

I’d sign up for this bracket right now

Not a bad bracket, though us and St. Mary's in the 2nd round would be a matchup of teams grossly under-seeded relative to their computer numbers. We're both top 10 in both KenPom and NET.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Kansas City and Louisville are going to be fought over

Good points, but Houston is the Final Four location. The West regional is Vegas