Hey guys, Illinois alum and fan here. To the extent it's useful, I thought I'd offer some thoughts on what I anticipate you might see from Illinois tomorrow. At the outset, let me say that it's going to take Illinois' A++ game and UConn C- game for the Illini to win tomorrow. UConn is just an incredible basketball team. That said, I do think Illinois is uniquely built to create some challenges for UConn because Underwood has embraced a much more NBA-like philosophy on offense in terms of identifying favorable matchups, and because of Hawkins ability to "guard" Clingan, Illinois may be able to go small and create some offensive opportunities.
One of the things that I will be most focused on will be Illinois' lineups. I suspect Underwood is going to try to guard UConn the same way that Illinois guarded Purdue for three of the four halves that the teams played this year: leave Hawkins on an island to guard Clingan without any help. If so, Illinois is going to try to lure UConn into getting Clingan 20 low post shots tomorrow and hope that he doesn't convert 15 of them. That's probably Illinois' best hope defensively.
Beyond that, Illinois is very good at preventing three-point attempts. The guards are taught to fight over the top of all ball screens while the bigs play an exceptionally soft drop coverage in an effort to lure the opponent into taking an abundance of floaters, runners, and twelve footers. This has been the defensive plan for the last four years, but the defense has been much worse this year because other than Shannon and Harmon (who barely plays at this point), none of the guards are able to fight over screens quickly enough and Illinois' rim protection is bad.
The other challenge is that UConn seems to run more set plays than anyone in the B1G other than (maybe) Nebraska. Illinois can be susceptible to slip screens and back door cuts because they are hyperfocused on preventing three point attempts. I think this is going to be a huge problem for Illinois tomorrow.
On the other side of the floor, I won't pretend to be an expert on UConn, but based on the half dozen games I've seen, while Castle and Newton are extraordinary on-ball defenders, it is Clingan's rim protection ability that makes UConn elite. My guess is that Illinois is going to play a lot of 5 out on offense and try to force Clingan to guard Hawkins or Guerrier on the perimeter. Illinois tried the same strategy with Purdue, and Painter countered it by putting Edey on Rodgers, who won't shoot beyond 6 feet. Edey just camped in the paint and didn't guard Rodgers. For that reason, I don't think Rodgers will play much tomorrow, which takes one of our best rebounders and defenders off the floor.
My expectation is that Illinois will play a lot of Shannon/Domask/Hawkins/Guerrier/Goode together. That's Illinois' most potent offensive unit, but it's a really bad defensive team. From that five, expect to see a ton of Domask booty ball. I will be interested to see how UConn guards it. Iowa State trapped, but that left lots of open threes and rim cuts. Alternatively, you can play him one on one, but trust me when I tell you that Domask is just an exceptional offensive player and he will tough to contain one on one.
The other thing to note about Illinois on offense is how little action they run for Shannon. He mostly plays off the ball in the half court and they use him as a shooter and cutter.
Good luck tomorrow. I'm really looking forward to the game. For most Illinois fans (and I suspect the team), we have no expectations at this point - it's all gravy. But I do think this has a chance to be a really fun game to watch.
One of the things that I will be most focused on will be Illinois' lineups. I suspect Underwood is going to try to guard UConn the same way that Illinois guarded Purdue for three of the four halves that the teams played this year: leave Hawkins on an island to guard Clingan without any help. If so, Illinois is going to try to lure UConn into getting Clingan 20 low post shots tomorrow and hope that he doesn't convert 15 of them. That's probably Illinois' best hope defensively.
Beyond that, Illinois is very good at preventing three-point attempts. The guards are taught to fight over the top of all ball screens while the bigs play an exceptionally soft drop coverage in an effort to lure the opponent into taking an abundance of floaters, runners, and twelve footers. This has been the defensive plan for the last four years, but the defense has been much worse this year because other than Shannon and Harmon (who barely plays at this point), none of the guards are able to fight over screens quickly enough and Illinois' rim protection is bad.
The other challenge is that UConn seems to run more set plays than anyone in the B1G other than (maybe) Nebraska. Illinois can be susceptible to slip screens and back door cuts because they are hyperfocused on preventing three point attempts. I think this is going to be a huge problem for Illinois tomorrow.
On the other side of the floor, I won't pretend to be an expert on UConn, but based on the half dozen games I've seen, while Castle and Newton are extraordinary on-ball defenders, it is Clingan's rim protection ability that makes UConn elite. My guess is that Illinois is going to play a lot of 5 out on offense and try to force Clingan to guard Hawkins or Guerrier on the perimeter. Illinois tried the same strategy with Purdue, and Painter countered it by putting Edey on Rodgers, who won't shoot beyond 6 feet. Edey just camped in the paint and didn't guard Rodgers. For that reason, I don't think Rodgers will play much tomorrow, which takes one of our best rebounders and defenders off the floor.
My expectation is that Illinois will play a lot of Shannon/Domask/Hawkins/Guerrier/Goode together. That's Illinois' most potent offensive unit, but it's a really bad defensive team. From that five, expect to see a ton of Domask booty ball. I will be interested to see how UConn guards it. Iowa State trapped, but that left lots of open threes and rim cuts. Alternatively, you can play him one on one, but trust me when I tell you that Domask is just an exceptional offensive player and he will tough to contain one on one.
The other thing to note about Illinois on offense is how little action they run for Shannon. He mostly plays off the ball in the half court and they use him as a shooter and cutter.
Good luck tomorrow. I'm really looking forward to the game. For most Illinois fans (and I suspect the team), we have no expectations at this point - it's all gravy. But I do think this has a chance to be a really fun game to watch.
