Here's my scout:
Illinois (29-8)
#10 in KenPom
11th in D1 experience
136th in minutes continuity (44.5%)
8th tallest team in D1
Big Ten Champs
2nd in offensive efficiency
- 17th in offensive rebounding rate
- 21st w/ a 55.3 2P%
- 56th in turnover prevention
- 63rd in FT rate; 108th w/ a 73.6 FT%
- 114th w/ a 35.1 3P%; 142nd in 3PA/FGA (38.7%)
- 169th in average possession length
- 280th in A/FGM (45.9%)
84th in defensive efficiency
- 7th in 3PA/FGA prevention (28.3%); 34.5 opp 3P% (227th)
- 26th in A/FGM prevention (43.3%)
- 28th in opp 2P% (46.8%)
- 34th in FT rate prevention (don’t foul a lot too)
- 56th in defensive tempo rate (17 seconds/possession)
- 64th in defensive rebounding rate
- 360th in turnover rate
Big Ten Stats
View attachment 98445
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
Marcus Domask 6’6 215 grad transfer from Southern Illinois
- Least efficient defensive starter
Ty Rodgers 6’6 200 sophomore
Terrence Shannon 6’6 225 fifth-year
Quincy Guerrier 6’8 220 fifth-year
- Third most efficient defender
Coleman Hawkins 6’10 225 senior
- Second most efficient defender
KEY INJURIES - none
FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES - 28.4% minutes (237th in nation)
Dain Dainja 6’9 270 junior
Luke Goode 6’7 210 junior
- Least efficient defensive bench piece
Justin Harmon 6’4 180 senior transfer from Utah Valley
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn 6’1 165 freshman
View attachment 98446
Here we go.
Illinois and UConn: two of the hottest teams in college basketball. We have yet to see a team with size, star power, poise, synergy and experience as Illinois.
Winners of 10 of their last 11 games, Illinois is amidst a seven-game winning streak and Terrence Shannon has scored 25+ points in each of those games. Their only loss in eleven games? Against Purdue.
Obviously, Shannon is the star. He’s the best all-around scorer and he’s able to do it with efficiency (10th most efficient offensive player, according to KenPom). He’s the team’s most prolific outside shooter; their best bucket-attacker and has the IQ to know when to dish.
Paired with Shannon is SIU transfer Marcus Domask, a 6’6 215 do-it-all offensive weapon who has taken over the de facto point guard role from presumed preseason point guard Ty Rodgers, who is a strong, physical guard who can post-up and bully the ball inside, but has literally not even attempted a three this season.
Both Shannon and Rodgers are capable, but not spectacular defenders while Domask is clearly the worst defensive player in the lineup.
The frontcourt hands-down has the team’s best defenders. Coleman Hawkins is the team’s most versatile player and he kinda reminds me of a taller version of Gonzaga’s Anton Watson – a highly switchable defender who can score from anywhere. His one weakness is rebounding on both ends. At 6’10, Hawkins starts at the 5, but his shooting allows him to play quite a few rotations alongside backup big Dain Dainja, a 6’9 270 mound of rebound who averaged 13.5 rebounds per 40 minutes played. He boasts a whopping 7’7 wingspan.
Starting at the 4 is former Syracuse and Oregon forward Quincy Guerrier, an efficient three-and-D power forward who is a strong rebounder on both ends and can defend anywhere between the 3 and the 5. Backing him up is 6’7 210 shooter Luke Goode, who does little aside from shoot threes. He’s an even worse defender than Domask, so Illinois’ worst defensive lineup includes both on the floor (which happens about 50% of the minutes during the tournament), especially when Goode is playing the 4, which takes away a frontcourt piece since Dainja/Hawkins/Guerrier are Illinois’ best defenders.
Another note: since neither shoot from the perimeter, it is incredibly rare that Ty Rodgers and Dainja share the floor, meaning that Underwood understandably plays as many lineups as he can with 4 or 5 shooters. The five shooter lineups (Domask/Harmon/Shannon/Goode/Hawkins) also make up Illinois weakest defensive squads. Karaban can cook with Goode at the 4. Speaking of Harmon, he’s only scored a total of four points across the last eight games, but he was a 14 point-per-game scorer at Utah Valley last season, so he can get his too.
For UConn, there are a lot of ways to attack Illinois on defense. I see equal value in Castle guarding Domask (the proverbial straw that stirs the drink) and Shannon (their best scorer). Personally, I’d prefer Castle on Shannon since he is dangerous from everywhere and Newton on Domask since he does most of his magic inside the arc, but that’s just me, Illinois has big guards and so does UConn, so there’s mix and match potential no matter how you slice it.
On offense, I can see the mid-range shot providing a lot of opportunities for our non-bigs: the length of Illinois makes it hard for teams to get off three-point shots while Dainja is a strong basket-anchor. Personally, I Dainja getting lots of run tomorrow since he’s got the physicality and length to defend Clingan while Hawkins would be better suited guarding Karaban (aka Clingan would eat Hawkins’ lunch). Also, I love the opportunity for both Newton and Castle to use their penetrating ability to generate fouls, especially from Hawkins.
