San Diego State: 32-6
KenPom Rating: 14
NET ranking: 14
5-5 vs Q1 ; 6-1 vs Q2
Best Win
- 3/24/23 71-64 over Alabama
- Darrion Trammell: 21 points, 3-5 from 3, 2 stls
- SDSU shot 35.3% from 3, Alabama was 3-27 from 3 (11.1%)
Worst Loss
- 1/31/23 76-66 to Nevada
- Three players from Nevada scored 18+
- Only ⅓ of Nevada’s FGAs from 3, team was 20-33 from 2 and 20-23 from the line
- Lamont Butler only played 20 minutes and fouled out.
- Forced Nevada to only 6 finals
OFFENSE: 68th in efficiency
- 76th in offensive rebounding rate
- 109th in preventing turnovers
- 112th in FTA/FGA rate
- 156th with a 72.4 FT%
- 164th with a 34.3 3p%, but just 33.8% of their FGAs are from 3 (285th)
- 172nd in average length of possession (17.6 seconds)
- 176th in A/FGM (50.5%)
- 246th with a 48.8 2P%
DEFENSE: 4th in efficiency
- Elite perimeter D:
- 3rd in opp. 3P%: 28.1%
- But their stout interior D forces teams to settle for threes (40.2% FGAs, 90th most)
- 17th in length of average length of opponent possession (18.5 seconds)
- 45th in block rate
- Mensah: 9.8%, 14th in the nation
- Arop: 4.6%, but not enough attempts to quality
- LeDee: 2.6%, 475th in the nation
- Johnson: 2.5%, 495th in the nation
- 68th in defensive rebounding rate
- 72nd in forcing ISO (just 46.3% of FGM from assists)
- 101st in steal rate:
- Butler: 3.5%, 79th in nation
- Trammell: 2.8%, 251st in nation
- Arop: 2.4%,
- 140th in FTA prevention
- But 314th in opp. FT% (74.5%)
- 145th in opp. 2P% (49.3%)
Other metrics:
- 21st in D1 experience (average 2.96 years)
- 32nd in bench minutes (37.5%)
- In comparison, UConn is 221st w/ 29.3%, lower than I expected
- 39th in minutes continuity (61%)
- 330th in 2-Foul Participation in first half (7.6%)
While Steve Fisher is a architect of the San Diego State program, Brian Dutcher, the associate head coach under Fisher, has admirably continued the program’s success post-Fisher, leading the Aztecs to four of the first five eligible seasons with Dutcher at the helm and their first Final Four and Championship Final in program history.
Similar to Dayton, arguably the program’s previous best chance to advance in the tournament was in 2020 when the Malachi Flynn led Aztecs went 30-2, but the canceled tournament snuffed out those dreams.
Continuing the tradition of Steve Fisher, for decades San Diego State has lived up their tradition as a hard-nosed, physical defensive squad that grinds their teams to a glacial pace: in fact, nine of their wins this season were with scoring totals in the 60s or less with a 45-43 win over Fresno State the best example of the Aztecs’ preferred style.
Part of what keeps the defensive energy high and sustained is that they have arguably the deepest team in the tournament: their nine rotation pieces average between 16-28 mpg, circumventing the perils of foul trouble, especially in the frontcourt where both power forwards and centers play almost interchangeably.
What has sustained San Diego State’s success is their ever-presence of veteran, reloading teams. Case in point, five of their rotation pieces are fifth-year seniors, four of which played for the Aztecs last season.
After fielding the 167th ranked offense last season and in obvious need of more scoring balance, Dutcher hit the transfer portal last offseason adding guard Darrion Trammell (17.3 ppg in his last season at Seattle) and wing Micah Parrish (12.1 ppg in his last season at Oakland). Of course, in typical San Diego State fashion, both additions also happened to be on all-defensive teams in their respective conferences, further strengthening the team’s defense.
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When teams face San Diego State for the first time, the focus tends to start with fifth-year power guard Matt Bradley because 1) at 6’4 220, he’s a mismatch nightmare; 2) he is San Diego State’s best individual offense player. Starting each game at the 3, but then also shifting down to the 2 when Micah Parrish is on the bench, Bradley reminds me of one of my favorite recent players, Admiral Scofield, as in he can attack the offense in a variety of ways: through powering his way through the hoop, from deep and where he is most dangerous: as a triple-threat option at the elbow, akin to Miami’s Isaiah Wong, where he can facilitate and find the open man.
Rather than playing with a true on-ball point guard, Bradley shares the distribution duties with his backcourt mates Lamont Butler and Darion Trammell.
The hero from the semifinal matchup against FAU, Butler is arguably one of the best defensive combo guards in the country who on offense, like Arkansas’ Devo Davis, doesn’t wow in one particular aspect but can contribute in a variety of ways.
With no D1 offers out of high school, Trammell reminds me a bit of an undersized version of Gonzaga’s Malachi Smith in that in his former school, Seattle, he was the do-everything, bucket-getting guard but at SDSU has drastically lowered his usage rate and has fit into the team identity. While his counting stats look modest, the shifty combo guard is more than capable in breaking down the defense and creating his own offense. On defense, the pesty Trammell worms his way into his opponents without generating fouls.
While Bradley demands respect on offense, he is one of the few less efficient Aztecs on defense so if he’s on Jackson, I can see Jackson being one of the safer facilitators on offense while Hawkins and Newton will likely draw a combo of Trammell and Butler as their defenders.
The Aztecs’ two bench options in the backcourt are led by Oakland transfer Micah Parrish. An athletic and versatile defender who could guard one through four, Parrish one of San Diego State’s best perimeter scorers along with fifth-year guard Adam Seiko, who is San Diego State’s best perimeter shooter and worst defender.
Considering that Bradley and Seiko are the Aztecs’ two worst defenders, recent lineups show that they almost never share the floor together, an obvious strategic move by Dutcher to maximize defensive efficiency.
As the modern NCAA leans more to four- and five-out teams that focus on shooting, San Diego State’s frontcourt is a bit of a throwback in that none of the four pieces are perimeter threats. In fact, Mensah/Arop/LeDee combined this season for just six three point attempts.
The star of the frontcourt is fifth-year big Nathan Mensah, one of the most versatile defensive weapons in the NCAA. An elite shot-blocker with the strength and athleticism to defend out to the perimeter, Mensah is arguably the heart and soul of the Aztecs: his effort is endless. Unlike other bigs we’ve played against this tournament, Mensah is able to defend hard without getting into foul trouble. In fact, foul trouble is usually not an issue with the Aztecs, in general.
Mensah’s tag team mate is TCU via Ohio State fifth-year transfer Jason LeDee, who is San Diego State’s heaviest and most gifted offensive weapon in the frontcourt who possesses a variety of high and low-post moves and deft footwork. While not as gifted athletically and defensively as Mensah, he is a capable defender.
The power forward tag team features senior Keshad Johnson and fifth-year senior Aguek Arop, both 6’7 225 and both arguably the most athletically gifted and most defensively versatile players on the Aztecs, each with the true ability to defend every position. While Arop’s offense is mostly solely around the rim, Johnson possesses some willingness to stretch the floor, attempting 1.1 3PAs per game.
Simply put, defended by Johnson/Arop, Alex Karaban will be pestered every minute he is on the floor, but he has had plenty of experience this year against gifted defensive power forwards, most recently Iona’s Shema, Saint Mary’s Bowen and Arkansas’ Jordan Walsh.
Playing against defensively stout, grind-you-down teams that make it hard to take good shots make he think that both Calcaterra and Alleyne will be super valuable on Monday both in their ability to prevent turnovers and their shot-taking ability. Both combined for 39 minutes last night and I can see similar minutes Monday.
KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 69 (nice)-64
It’s coming, the title game is here! This game is going to be a grind, you can’t deny UConn’s recent success against grind you down, molasses style teams: 87-69 over Providence, 71-59 over Villanova, 70-55 over Saint Mary’s…
Overall, I like how UConn has played a variety of teams in this tournament and have won in a variety of ways after scoring just 70 points against Saint Mary’s and 88 points against Arkansas.
Nothing left to do but enjoy the game on Monday.
Thank you for the Boneyard. I love you all.
