San Diego State Scouting Report

[BarkingDog]

UConn will win.

And all the gods are powerless to stop it.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

UConn will win.

And all the gods are powerless to stop it.

 

[1999GoodSon]

San Diego State: 32-6
KenPom Rating: 14
NET ranking: 14
5-5 vs Q1 ; 6-1 vs Q2​

Best Win

• 3/24/23 71-64 over Alabama
  • Darrion Trammell: 21 points, 3-5 from 3, 2 stls
  • SDSU shot 35.3% from 3, Alabama was 3-27 from 3 (11.1%)

Worst Loss

• 1/31/23 76-66 to Nevada
  • Three players from Nevada scored 18+
  • Only ⅓ of Nevada’s FGAs from 3, team was 20-33 from 2 and 20-23 from the line
  • Lamont Butler only played 20 minutes and fouled out.
  • Forced Nevada to only 6 finals

OFFENSE: 68th in efficiency​

• 76th in offensive rebounding rate
• 109th in preventing turnovers
• 112th in FTA/FGA rate
• 156th with a 72.4 FT%
• 164th with a 34.3 3p%, but just 33.8% of their FGAs are from 3 (285th)
• 172nd in average length of possession (17.6 seconds)
• 176th in A/FGM (50.5%)
• 246th with a 48.8 2P%

DEFENSE: 4th in efficiency​

• Elite perimeter D:
  • 3rd in opp. 3P%: 28.1%
  • But their stout interior D forces teams to settle for threes (40.2% FGAs, 90th most)
• 17th in length of average length of opponent possession (18.5 seconds)
• 45th in block rate
  • Mensah: 9.8%, 14th in the nation
  • Arop: 4.6%, but not enough attempts to quality
  • LeDee: 2.6%, 475th in the nation
  • Johnson: 2.5%, 495th in the nation
• 68th in defensive rebounding rate
• 72nd in forcing ISO (just 46.3% of FGM from assists)
• 101st in steal rate:
  • Butler: 3.5%, 79th in nation
  • Trammell: 2.8%, 251st in nation
  • Arop: 2.4%,
• 140th in FTA prevention
  • But 314th in opp. FT% (74.5%)
• 145th in opp. 2P% (49.3%)

Other metrics:

• 21st in D1 experience (average 2.96 years)
• 32nd in bench minutes (37.5%)
  • In comparison, UConn is 221st w/ 29.3%, lower than I expected
• 39th in minutes continuity (61%)
• 330th in 2-Foul Participation in first half (7.6%)

While Steve Fisher is a architect of the San Diego State program, Brian Dutcher, the associate head coach under Fisher, has admirably continued the program’s success post-Fisher, leading the Aztecs to four of the first five eligible seasons with Dutcher at the helm and their first Final Four and Championship Final in program history.

Similar to Dayton, arguably the program’s previous best chance to advance in the tournament was in 2020 when the Malachi Flynn led Aztecs went 30-2, but the canceled tournament snuffed out those dreams.

Continuing the tradition of Steve Fisher, for decades San Diego State has lived up their tradition as a hard-nosed, physical defensive squad that grinds their teams to a glacial pace: in fact, nine of their wins this season were with scoring totals in the 60s or less with a 45-43 win over Fresno State the best example of the Aztecs’ preferred style.

Part of what keeps the defensive energy high and sustained is that they have arguably the deepest team in the tournament: their nine rotation pieces average between 16-28 mpg, circumventing the perils of foul trouble, especially in the frontcourt where both power forwards and centers play almost interchangeably.

What has sustained San Diego State’s success is their ever-presence of veteran, reloading teams. Case in point, five of their rotation pieces are fifth-year seniors, four of which played for the Aztecs last season.

After fielding the 167th ranked offense last season and in obvious need of more scoring balance, Dutcher hit the transfer portal last offseason adding guard Darrion Trammell (17.3 ppg in his last season at Seattle) and wing Micah Parrish (12.1 ppg in his last season at Oakland). Of course, in typical San Diego State fashion, both additions also happened to be on all-defensive teams in their respective conferences, further strengthening the team’s defense.

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When teams face San Diego State for the first time, the focus tends to start with fifth-year power guard Matt Bradley because 1) at 6’4 220, he’s a mismatch nightmare; 2) he is San Diego State’s best individual offense player. Starting each game at the 3, but then also shifting down to the 2 when Micah Parrish is on the bench, Bradley reminds me of one of my favorite recent players, Admiral Scofield, as in he can attack the offense in a variety of ways: through powering his way through the hoop, from deep and where he is most dangerous: as a triple-threat option at the elbow, akin to Miami’s Isaiah Wong, where he can facilitate and find the open man.

Rather than playing with a true on-ball point guard, Bradley shares the distribution duties with his backcourt mates Lamont Butler and Darion Trammell.

The hero from the semifinal matchup against FAU, Butler is arguably one of the best defensive combo guards in the country who on offense, like Arkansas’ Devo Davis, doesn’t wow in one particular aspect but can contribute in a variety of ways.

With no D1 offers out of high school, Trammell reminds me a bit of an undersized version of Gonzaga’s Malachi Smith in that in his former school, Seattle, he was the do-everything, bucket-getting guard but at SDSU has drastically lowered his usage rate and has fit into the team identity. While his counting stats look modest, the shifty combo guard is more than capable in breaking down the defense and creating his own offense. On defense, the pesty Trammell worms his way into his opponents without generating fouls.

While Bradley demands respect on offense, he is one of the few less efficient Aztecs on defense so if he’s on Jackson, I can see Jackson being one of the safer facilitators on offense while Hawkins and Newton will likely draw a combo of Trammell and Butler as their defenders.

The Aztecs’ two bench options in the backcourt are led by Oakland transfer Micah Parrish. An athletic and versatile defender who could guard one through four, Parrish one of San Diego State’s best perimeter scorers along with fifth-year guard Adam Seiko, who is San Diego State’s best perimeter shooter and worst defender.

Considering that Bradley and Seiko are the Aztecs’ two worst defenders, recent lineups show that they almost never share the floor together, an obvious strategic move by Dutcher to maximize defensive efficiency.

As the modern NCAA leans more to four- and five-out teams that focus on shooting, San Diego State’s frontcourt is a bit of a throwback in that none of the four pieces are perimeter threats. In fact, Mensah/Arop/LeDee combined this season for just six three point attempts.

The star of the frontcourt is fifth-year big Nathan Mensah, one of the most versatile defensive weapons in the NCAA. An elite shot-blocker with the strength and athleticism to defend out to the perimeter, Mensah is arguably the heart and soul of the Aztecs: his effort is endless. Unlike other bigs we’ve played against this tournament, Mensah is able to defend hard without getting into foul trouble. In fact, foul trouble is usually not an issue with the Aztecs, in general.

Mensah’s tag team mate is TCU via Ohio State fifth-year transfer Jason LeDee, who is San Diego State’s heaviest and most gifted offensive weapon in the frontcourt who possesses a variety of high and low-post moves and deft footwork. While not as gifted athletically and defensively as Mensah, he is a capable defender.

The power forward tag team features senior Keshad Johnson and fifth-year senior Aguek Arop, both 6’7 225 and both arguably the most athletically gifted and most defensively versatile players on the Aztecs, each with the true ability to defend every position. While Arop’s offense is mostly solely around the rim, Johnson possesses some willingness to stretch the floor, attempting 1.1 3PAs per game.

Simply put, defended by Johnson/Arop, Alex Karaban will be pestered every minute he is on the floor, but he has had plenty of experience this year against gifted defensive power forwards, most recently Iona’s Shema, Saint Mary’s Bowen and Arkansas’ Jordan Walsh.

Playing against defensively stout, grind-you-down teams that make it hard to take good shots make he think that both Calcaterra and Alleyne will be super valuable on Monday both in their ability to prevent turnovers and their shot-taking ability. Both combined for 39 minutes last night and I can see similar minutes Monday.

KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 69 (nice)-64

It’s coming, the title game is here! This game is going to be a grind, you can’t deny UConn’s recent success against grind you down, molasses style teams: 87-69 over Providence, 71-59 over Villanova, 70-55 over Saint Mary’s…

Overall, I like how UConn has played a variety of teams in this tournament and have won in a variety of ways after scoring just 70 points against Saint Mary’s and 88 points against Arkansas.

Nothing left to do but enjoy the game on Monday.

Thank you for the Boneyard. I love you all.

@Hey Adrien!'s scouting reports just named #1 in Overall Efficiency in the latest KenPom.
!

 

[warbler1055]

The SDS-FAU game was a 1 point game. Frankly, I thought FAU was a better team but their coach called 2 TO with 30 seconds left with 3 pts lead (or was it 1). SDS came back and won with a buzzer beater by 1 point. May be SDS will be a different team in the NC game but I will be very disappointed if UConn does not beat the spread 7.5.

 

[ZenConn]

We are doomed fo sho.

 

[Durks07]

Offense left, defense right. Might do the individual players later.

 

[ucp990411]

The SDS-FAU game was a 1 point game. Frankly, I thought FAU was a better team but their coach called 2 TO with 30 seconds left with 3 pts lead (or was it 1). SDS came back and won with a buzzer beater by 1 point. May be SDS will be a different team in the NC game but I will be very disappointed if UConn does not beat the spread 7.5.

So if we win by 4 you will be disappointed?

 

[Umami Zen]

I respect what SDSU brings to the table..esp. on D.. Better to prepare for a BE rock fight kind of game decided in last five minutes than the alternative.. Refs assigned to game have familiarity with us so I expect they'll let the teams "play" and have the players--not whistles-- decide the game.. As it should be in a championship game.

 

[AdamaNation]

I think given the level we're playing at on D and their mediocrity on that end, we can pencil them in for ~60 points.

The other end is the question. Can we run our stuff and get good looks for Sanogo, Hawkins, and Newton in penetration, or are we going to have to do a lot of 1 on 1 stuff late in the shot clock, which isn't our forte? I think this is going to come down to making tough perimeter shots. We have the guys to do that, but if we have a shooting day like Alabama did against them, it will be a long night.

70 points win.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I respect what SDSU brings to the table..esp. on D.. Better to prepare for a BE rock fight kind of game decided in last five minutes than the alternative.. Refs assigned to game have familiarity with us so I expect they'll let the teams "play" and have the players--not whistles-- decide the game.. As it should be in a championship game.

There's going to be a real fine line on the reffing this game. Both of these teams are more than happy to get as physical as the refs will allow. I'm concerned this could be one of those games that just gets out of control and where you become concerned it's going to lead to an injury.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Like Arkansas, SDSU is not typically built to come from behind (though they just did that against FAU, albeit bc FAU is a super small team). If we break out to a 10-15 point lead it should be enough to cruise to the title. We just need to balance our tendency to get 3 happy with a heavy dose of Sanogo down low and Jackson needs to stay out of foul trouble. Can safely assume Jackson will be guarding Bradley. Only way SDSU has a chance is if we go ice cold from 3 like Alabama and they get a lot of foul shots. Or if we get complacent and have a lot of turnovers. If they start getting some easy baskets at the rim then Clingan comes in and shuts that off.

They shoot 35% from 3. 129th nationally. Against FAU they shot 50%. Bradley took 8 of them and hit 4. On the other hand they are 3rd in 3 point % defense and yet FAU shot 40%. SDSU was bad at the line however.

UConn shoots 3s better than FAU (much better than SDSU) and defends them almost as well as SDSU (much better than FAU). UConn simply plays at both ends in a way none of these teams do.

 

[80shusky]

Great write up! I kept thinking in this tournament someone would eventually solve the UConn riddle. Each game after Iona I though maybe this is the loss coming. St Mary's, Arkansans, Gonzaga, and Miami with all their different play styles and matchup problems I figured one of them would figure it out.
For this one, I'm worried about a slow, agonizing pace where SDSU tries to limit possessions and be super efficient offensivley. I think UConn is good enough to play that way too but I don't think they like too.

 

[jibsey]

We have to fight harder than them on defense, rebounding, because the offense flows from that. That’s it, but no matter what happens I’m proud of this team. Just leave it all out there, it’s all we can ask as fans.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

FAU was able to score effectively for a lot of the game because they were shooting early in the shot clock. I'm guessing SD St was more prepared for FAU to run a lot of clock before shooting so the defense wasn't set when the shots went up. FAU then (over the last six minutes) started trying to run the clock out and killed their offense. They legitimately blew that game.

I personally hate 'rock fights' as in my opinion it destroys a beautiful game. Yes, physicality is part of the game but it should never resemble a wrestling match. If we maintain our identity in defense and rebounding and we don't lose our composure we should be in good shape, albeit the offensive flow may appear similar to the 2011 title against Butler.

Also, we're doomed!

 

[aburks41]

I said this before the Saint Mary’s game, that they had a propensity to go scoreless for like 5+ minutes at a time. And that’s exactly what happened and we pulled away. SDSU does the same thing. They can score, but they also can go cold for a while. This is going to be a tough game because of how relentless their defense is though

 

[WhereistheDove?]

They shoot 35% from 3. 129th nationally. Against FAU they shot 50%. Bradley took 8 of them and hit 4. On the other hand they are 3rd in 3 point % defense and yet FAU shot 40%. SDSU was bad at the line however.

UConn shoots 3s better than FAU (much better than SDSU) and defends them almost as well as SDSU (much better than FAU). UConn simply plays at both ends in a way none of these teams do.

You look back through every one of their tournament games and find the weakness(es) they exploited.... and it's really hard to see them able to exploit that against UConn. A lot of talk about how UConn hasn't seen SDSU's physicality, and that's true, but SDSU also hasn't seen someone with UConn's physicality.

 

[tzznandrew]

You look back through every one of their tournament games and find the weakness(es) they exploited.... and it's really hard to see them able to exploit that against UConn. A lot of talk about how UConn hasn't seen SDSU's physicality, and that's true, but SDSU also hasn't seen someone with UConn's physicality.

Florida Atlantic played pretty much all their minutes with their 1-4 being Jalen Gaffney sized.

 

[Kembacity]

I’m so confident in our coaching staff, they’ve seemed to have our team fully prepared at every challenge along the way and I’m sure this will be no different.

Agree with some others that to win, SDSU needs to have a good game, they need to hit tough shots and need to hope we don’t. I’m slightly afraid of too much hero ball with this now being the last game moment for someone like Hawkins to show out for the draft. If he comes out hot, however, sorry SDSU better luck next year

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I’m slightly afraid of too much hero ball with this now being the last game moment for someone like Hawkins to show out for the draft.

The way Hurley has this team playing and bought in, this isn't even on my list of worries, much less high on it.

 

[Rico444]

Karaban will pull one away and I'll trust Sanogo to go 1 on 1 with any of them. Can only play 5 guys at a time.

They're going to put their 4 man on Jackson like every other team we've faced recently.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I said this before the Saint Mary’s game, that they had a propensity to go scoreless for like 5+ minutes at a time. And that’s exactly what happened and we pulled away. SDSU does the same thing. They can score, but they also can go cold for a while. This is going to be a tough game because of how relentless their defense is though

Another similarity to St Mary's is they throw hip checks that would have made Gordie Howe proud.

 

[warbler1055]

So if we win by 4 you will be disappointed?

I will be happy that we win but disappointed because we did not play our A game. IMHO SDS is not on same level as UConn, others might disagree but I saw their games and if you are happy with a 4 pts win then more power to you.

 

[bazz&boujee]

UConn takes care of business.

SDSU is doomed.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Everyone is the 4th best KenPom Defense until it’s the 17:00 mark in the second half and Hawkins hits 3 straight threes

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I will be happy that we win but disappointed because we did not play our A game. IMHO SDS is not on same level as UConn, others might disagree but I saw their games and if you are happy with a 4 pts win then more power to you.

I hear what you are saying but if we are up when the game ends, whether it is by one point or twenty, I'll be extremely happy. Somewhere down the road we can nitpick about whether we did or did not play our best but the goal is a W.

If the refs let them turn this game into a rock fight (the only way SDSU has a chance) the final score could well end up being something like 53-48. I would prefer a smooth flowing game of skill and athleticism as a) it is a more enjoyable brand of basketball and b) we win by double digits in that type of game. If we're stuck with a rock fight and still win, the trophy will be every bit as nice.