I want to say yes, but the last two guys they said that about with regards to impact had wild starts to their careers, so I’m hesitant to say it out loud (minor legal issues; pandemic shutdown leading to no off-season summer work, injuries).
Also, to your point about only recruiting transfers that the staff knows or has familiarity with in some way, I don’t think that’s completely accurate across the board. There’s some truth to it early on, when they’re still working on getting the culture right, but they feel good about that now. Then, they can bring in the “wildcards,” which opens it up a lot, especially in the transfer pool. At URI, that was most notable with lovable problem child Kuran Iverson and a guy who had gotten asked to leave Indiana (Stanford Robinson).
I think there’s a time and place for all the transfer options, with guys moving up, down, and laterally, guys looking to expand their roles or accepting of a smaller one to be on a winner. Coaches are now earning their money in the off-season in a way that is different.