Real Look At next season

[HuskylnSC]

The only teams currently on the schedule that present a significant matchup problem in the paint are Baylor and, to a lesser degree, ND. If Touly & ONO develop, that changes the calculus considerably.

olddude - remember Hunter is back for ND. She will make a case for NPOY.

 

[Zanzman]

olddude - remember Hunter is back for ND. She will make a case for NPOY.

You mean turner not hunter

 

[oldude]

olddude - remember Hunter is back for ND. She will make a case for NPOY.

I think you mean Turner? Yes, I know she’s back, which is why I listed ND as a team that could give UConn problems in the paint. I noted “to a lesser degree” because Turner is only 6’3” and has been injury prone throughout her time at ND.

 

[MainefanSC]

Collier and Samuelson became Wade Trophy finalist caliber players and Gabby Williams ascended to national superstar. Are you confident in similar transformations in, say, Walker, Coombs, Dangerfield, and one or both freshmen?

Do you even follow this team? The transformation in Danger took place between her Freshman and Sophomore season. Barring severe shin splint issues or other injury, she will be an AA this year. I believe Walker will be our transformation this season and with a healthy Touly/Coombs competing with incoming Frosh, for the other starting position, we'll be a force for opponents to deal with.

 

[oldude]

Some of the players Geno refused to substitute for were also ineffective. Don't lay that on Z. Also, what did paisan state that was not true? None of those things may hold Uconn back this season but as of now most of what he pointed out are valid points except about Batouly. She does have experience.

It’s not that paisan’s points are wrong. It’s just that their impact is overstated.

Every team has concerns that they need to address at the start of the season. Think back to 2 years ago. What points would paisan have made then?

1. Only 1 healthy returning starter
2. Lou coming off a broken foot
3. Not a single experienced BIG
4. Inconsistent performance from Nat & Saniya
5. Only 1 top recruit coming in

That worked out pretty well as I recall. Kids step up, and no one does a better job of developing talent than Geno & his staff.

 

[tomcat]

To me if you have 2 legit POY candidates plus one of the top PG in the nation you should be considered a National Championship contender. I think the expectation level should be higher than Elite 8.

And this is the beauty part of looking forward to this season. The team could be either. All the analysis points made by the OP could happen, though it's not likely they all will, especially at the same time. All the positive points well stated by a subsequent poster could happen. Or what's most likely, something in between.

Now, this happens every season, to a certain extent. But not for a long time have we UConn fans had as stark a contrast between upside and downside on the same team. As someone else said, it will be really interesting, and a real challenge for the coaches.

 

[oldude]

Well that's the question isn't it? There's certainly talent, and they won't lose many games, but are they good enough to win a title? This team will need some breakout performances for that to happen. As I've said before, there are glaring issues with defense and rebounding on paper, and possibly even shooting.

I’m not demanding perfection like many here on the BY. While UConn’s goal is always a national championship, and the losses in the semifinals in each of the past two seasons hurt, 72-2 is a remarkable achievement that should be celebrated by UConn fans and not picked apart as some kind of failure.

Should UConn lose 1 game this year, or 3, or even 5, I will continue to be a “glass half full” guy that thoroughly enjoys the achievements of these wonderful young ladies.

 

[oldude]

But not for a long time have we UConn fans had as stark a contrast between upside and downside on the same team.

Um...How about prior to the 2016-17 season? Graduate 3 AA’s, only 1 returning starter, no height, no depth, no experience?

 

[MainefanSC]

I’m not demanding perfection like many here on the BY. While UConn’s goal is always a national championship, and the losses in the semifinals in each of the past two seasons hurt, 72-2 is a remarkable achievement that should be celebrated by UConn fans and not picked apart as some kind of failure.

Should UConn lose 1 game this year, or 3, or even 5, I will continue to be a “glass half full” guy that thoroughly enjoys the achievements of these wonderful young ladies.

Couldn't agree more!!!! It's always with excitement and positive anticipation to see what Geno and staff do with the assets they have. They (staff) also make game changes that immediately correct some opponent successes. The only team I lose sleep over is ND. The similarities in play are too unsettling. Sure, there are couple other teams that are serious concerns, but ND has had no fear of facing us for many years now. That alone makes a big difference, right at the opening tip.

Not looking to wish my summer and life away but I am anxious for the new season to begin. I have high expectations and even if we have a "down" (many definitions of that, are out there) year, it'll be fun to watch these women mature on the court.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Do you even follow this team? The transformation in Danger took place between her Freshman and Sophomore season. Barring severe shin splint issues or other injury, she will be an AA this year. I believe Walker will be our transformation this season and with a healthy Touly/Coombs competing with incoming Frosh, for the other starting position, we'll be a force for opponents to deal with.

Dangerfield's jump as a sophomore was to very good player, not Wade Trophy finalist or all-american as were the jumps by Williams, Samuelson, and Collier.

So yes, I follow very closely.

 

[oldude]

Dangerfield's jump as a sophomore was to very good player, not Wade Trophy finalist or all-american as were the jumps by Williams, Samuelson, and Collier.

So yes, I follow very closely.

While I agree with your assessment of Crystal’s sophomore jump there were extenuating circumstances that severely restricted her development, namely shin splints.

At the start of the season Crystal looked as good as any pg in the nation. She was magnificent vs Stanford and wonderful in her matchup with Jordan Canada.

Once Crystal developed shin splints, she played in pain, her minutes were limited, she sat for several games and hardly practiced with the team. That impacted her shooting and overall timing. Under the circumstances, Crystal’s performance was quite remarkable.

This year, I expect Crystal’s problems with shin splints to be a thing of the past. To start, she’s rested and hasn’t had to play this summer in the Under 19 world championships or against European teams in Italy.

I’m sure that she’s worked with the UConn medical staff to develop a training program to lessen impact exercise (running) while increasing stretching and non-impact aerobic training. Those changes, along with proper diet, ice and compression will hopefully allow Crystal to be the explosive, playmaking pg that we all watched at the beginning of last season.

Ionescu looks to be the top pg in the nation. But if Crystal is healthy all season we could end up having an interesting debate on who’s the best pg in the nation at the end of the season.

 

[LouS]

1. A banged up Lou who seems to have a penchant for getting injured.
2. A point guard with questionable legs
3. Pheesa a reliable small forward ,but has trouble with the big post players.
4. Meg who will probably be a good 3 but with minimal size and game experience
5. Two soph guards with no game experience
6. Two frosh with potential
7. Batouly , potential rebounder ,no experience
8. Two bench players

Wow ..will this be an interesting season... especially the non league games.
Rebounding and defense will be a challenge. The inability to stop the penetration and 3 pt shooting of quick guards will need to be addressed .

You forgot the SECRET WEAPON < Gene & Chris >

 

[bballnut90]

A major disappointment like losing to a 22-point underdog Mississippi State team in the national semis? Why would losing a round earlier during the upcoming season be any more shocking than that?

Because relative to expectations UCONN had significantly overachieved in 2016-17 with a roster of unproven players and nearly pulled off an incredible undefeated run. Even with the loss, they overachieved that season. It was their first NCAA loss in 5 years and was bound to happen at some point. After the game Geno was smiling in admiration of what just happened.

This past year UCONN was expected to run the table and lost again on a buzzer beater, this time ending Gabby Williams and Kia Nurse’s career.

Which game was more disappointing between the two? Geno’s reaction said 2018. Most fans here would say 2018,

Now in 2019, expectations will be lower compared to last year, but if UCONN doesn’t even make the Final Four for the first time in 12 years with all of their talent and with KLS/Collier being seniors, it’d be far worse than 2018 IMO.

If you want to set the bar low so you can look back and say, “we exceeded expectations this season” then Elite 8 is a great standard to use since you’re 99% going to meet and surpass it. If you’re looking at a more realistic bar, Final Four is the minimum expectation, championship is the goal.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Just want to say we need posts like paisan's to appease the "BB Gods"... thanks. Now UCONN can have a great year!!

I am so looking forward to this season. No team plays TEAM ball like UCONN. Just a joy to watch. Perhaps there will be a stumble or 2 or ?? early in the non-conference season...but that doesn't matter. All that matters is winning the final game of the Season... and with a season to work out the "kinks" of a new roster and new roles makes it quite possible our Huskies will be in Tampa. Once there, its anyone's title to win.

Trust the system. Trust Geno and CD to find a way!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Because relative to expectations UCONN had significantly overachieved in 2016-17 with a roster of unproven players and nearly pulled off an incredible undefeated run. Even with the loss, they overachieved that season.

They might've been unproven prior to the season but three of them were among the five best players in the country by the end. Those were unknowns going into the year which made the team a mystery. Did the team surprise based on preseason expectations? Of course. But that team was clearly a powerhouse come tournament time. Whether or not one expected them to be 36-0 by the semis, they had the toughest path cleared for them and were overwhelming favorites to beat State and win the title. The shock of how good they became had rubbed off and every metric pointed to them as the best team in the country. The season as a whole was successful but the reality is they should've won the title.

Now, if somehow Walker, Coombs, Nelson-Ododa, and Williams all play like AA nominees, then this year's team will be a powerhouse. That's more than a lot to ask for.

 

[DEpup]

A real look at next season:

1. Lou returning - 2x all American AND she had successful off-season surgery - we've never seen her at 100%. Watch out! Legit NPOY candidate
   
2. Pheesa - smooth as silk forward - All American her sophomore year, started slow last season and finished strong, albeit not an AA. She will be battling Lou for NPOY.
3. Crystal - one of the best PG's in the nation when healthy. Look for her to be on the short list for the Leiberman award, provided she gets the shin splints under control. A summer of recuperation along with strength conditioning, or whatever is needed, should help.
   
4. Walker - showed flashes of excellence punctuated by longer periods of ineffectiveness. Has reportedly been working her ass off this summer so hopefully will have a tremendous sophomore leap.
5. Williams - not only the #1 player in the nation, but some felt she was #1 the prior year as well (ie. better than Megan and 1 year younger). Wants to be legendary. Should be a huge impact player off the bench, may even start.
6. Nelson-Ododa - some had her at #1 before her injury. Tall, lanky, smooth, and can already dunk. Doesn't fashion herself as a perimeter player. Might even start. Azura who??
7. Camara - big question mark - strong, smooth, but has trouble finishing around the basket. Looking forward to a sophomore leap for her (this is only her 2nd year playing full time - and hopefully she starts the season at 100% with no nagging injuries). Might even start...
   
8. Coombs reported healed and ready to rumble. Even a moderate sophomore leap would be light years better than her freshman season.
9. Molly, Kyla and Lexi - Great role players - hopefully all improve, especially Lexi's sophomore leap

Bottom line, it will be a year of lower expectations (Elite 8 should be the expectation - anything past that is slightly over-achieving IMHO).

This is what a real fan booster post should look like in my opinion. Any coach would love to have the challenges UConn will have next year. I'm excited to see some young diamonds in the rough really shine.

 

[augustaTC]

Talk about a "glass half empty" outlook..............

 

[Roger G]

I appreciate Paisan for starting this thread. If he weren't so negative, what would have compelled all this thoughtful analysis to come forward. But Paisan, one other negative you might have mentioned was the shakeup in the coaching staff as Marissa leaves and Jasmine comes aboard. That may cause some discontinuity.

Anyway, I think the Huskies will be successful. To what degree, I don't know: final four or national championship? It's hard to say.

 

[msf22b]

In reflecting on the interesting posts in this thread, my normally cautious approach
(others have called it negative) is swayed by the Collier argument.

That with more room to maneuver around the rim, she will be devilishly difficult to guard and will provide a lot of space for cutters when/if the double team arrives.

it should be a fascinating and fun to watch offense...3 point shooters galore, Collier, virtually unstoppable inside and cutters streaming by.

About rebounding and D, I am somewhat less sanguine.

 

[Carnac]

The gloom and doom of this post is really sad.

Not really. Right now, doom and gloom is all we have. This is mid-June. There is no news coming out of the UConn basketball office right now. Every time I log into the yard, I hope to see that a coveted UConn recruit has given a verbal.

Until we begin to get reports on players that look good in practice, current reports on the health of those rehabbing injuries, those that appear to "get it", those that are distinguishing themselves and are standing out in practice, all we can do at this point is predict and hope.

We've heard nothing to date because this is a dead period. Players attending summer school classes, rehabbing etc. I'm not sure everyone is on campus at this time. None of us are seers. We can't look into the future and see what it holds.........although we'd like to.

Personally, I enjoy reading the honest unabashed (non PC) takes and predictions from posters on this particular subject. It gives us something to really think about. It's interesting to read other posters counter takes with opposing or different viewpoints that have merit. As I mentioned in another post, all we have to go on right now is the last vision of the players we saw in March.

Until we get new news and information, we're stuck in a holding pattern in the abyss of the unknown. Things should begin to pick up by the end of September. Classes will have resumed, as will informal practices and pickup games.

 

[Carnac]

Now in 2019, expectations will be lower compared to last year, but if UCONN doesn’t even make the Final Four for the first time in 12 years with all of their talent and with KLS/Collier being seniors, it’d be far worse than 2018 IMO.

Query........when are these expectations formulated? During the summer?, in November, just before the season begins?, or sometime in late January? If you remember, during the summer after the BIG 3 left, expectations ranged from doom and gloom (losing as many as 3 games during the OOC portion of the schedule) by some posters, to winning the NC. No AA starters were returning, and there were 3 openings in the starting line up.

Every year, perceptions change as the season progresses. I submit that expectations for this team will be much different in late January than they are today. There will be no "unknowns" or "what ifs" by then. UConn fans will know exactly what they have, and what they can realistically expect from that point going forward. The teams that are serious contenders to win the NC will have already positioned themselves in the top 7 spots nationally.

 

[Carnac]

I appreciate Paisan for starting this thread. If he weren't so negative, what would have compelled all this thoughtful analysis to come forward. But Paisan, one other negative you might have mentioned was the shakeup in the coaching staff as Marissa leaves and Jasmine comes aboard. That may cause some discontinuity. Anyway, I think the Huskies will be successful. To what degree, I don't know: final four or national championship? It's hard to say.

I appreciate Paisan's motives for this thread as well. You could very well be right. It's possible that Mosley leaving could have an effect on the players she worked directly with. I would submit that the reverse is also a possibility. Lister has a dynamic and attractive personality. She comes in being very familiar with Geno and the other coaches and the 2 seniors. I'll bet all of the players will enjoy working with her. I don't think there will be a disconnect there.

It's very possible that the players have already accepted the fact that Mosley is gone, and have moved on. It's also possible that the players may easily connect and identify with Lister because she is closer to their age (26) than Mosley was (36).

 

[donalddoowop]

I’m not demanding perfection like many here on the BY. While UConn’s goal is always a national championship, and the losses in the semifinals in each of the past two seasons hurt, 72-2 is a remarkable achievement that should be celebrated by UConn fans and not picked apart as some kind of failure.

Should UConn lose 1 game this year, or 3, or even 5, I will continue to be a “glass half full” guy that thoroughly enjoys the achievements of these wonderful young ladies.

I'll take 3 to 5 losses this season if it comes with a NC.

 

[bballnut90]

Query...when are these expectations formulated? During the summer?, in November, just before the season begins?, or sometime in late January? If you remember, during the summer after the BIG 3 left, expectations ranged from doom and gloom (losing as many as 3 games during the OOC portion of the schedule) by some posters, to winning the NC.

Perceptions change as the season progresses. I submit that expectations for the team will be much different in late January than they are today. There will be no "unknowns" or "what ifs" by then. UConn fans will know exactly what they have, and what they can realistically expect from that point going forward. The teams that are serious contenders to win the NC will have already positioned themselves in the top 7 spots nationally.

Expectations going into the season is what I'm referring to since that's where we're at now. Obviously for 2016-17 the expectation going into the post season was to finish the job, but that year Geno and others did have their reservations about the team, and they had the close call vs. Tulane, etc. so several people didn't think the title was locked in like it had been the previous 3 years. I thought it was, but was proven wrong. This year I didn't think the title was locked in and that was proven to be true.

 

[Carnac]

I'll take 3 to 5 losses this season if it comes with a NC.

LOL, You and everybody else!!!

 

[Orangutan]

OP is a:
☐ Man
☐ Woman
☑ Nervous Husky fan

and UConn women's basketball is:
☐ not doomed
☑ DOOMED

 

[JordyG]

Sheesh Paisan no attack but really??? Great bullet points but how could you possibly leave out....
1. Currently active volcanoes.
2. Wild fires on the west coast.
3. Will Kim Jong Un start a nuclear war in the middle of basketball season?
4. The state of Connecticut is as close to bankruptcy as it gets.
5. Nation wide heroin epidemic.

I could go on but no need as in Geno & CD I trust. They may not go undefeated or win a NC but then again they may find a way to do both. That's the beauty of the game and why it is played. The guaranteed is they will play hard and as a team unlike many and be a joy to watch.
Come on in off the ledge.....

You forgot one very important point. Asteroids are getting closer and closer to striking the earth without being detected. Maybe we can build a wall around the planet and have Mars pay for it.

 

[paisan]

I am happy to see such a diverse and stimulating discussion of my post. Contrary to some Byers reaction; I am looking forward to the coming season. If I am honest, in past years I have found the conference games to be less than interesting. I just don’t understand 40 pt wins without giving bench players significant pt....... Last years team had the skill to go all the way and they did not. I believe they lost because of poor defense. This year will be very interesting.
Quick note on pheesa. I do not doubt her offensive skills, but she has trouble against the big strong 6-6 players on defense and rebounding.

 

[EricSD]

Query...when are these expectations formulated? During the summer?, in November, just before the season begins?, or sometime in late January? If you remember, during the summer after the BIG 3 left, expectations ranged from doom and gloom (losing as many as 3 games during the OOC portion of the schedule) by some posters, to winning the NC. No AA starters were returning, and there 3 openings in the starting line up.

Every year, perceptions change as the season progresses. I submit that expectations for this team will be much different in late January than they are today. There will be no "unknowns" or "what ifs" by then. UConn fans will know exactly what they have, and what they can realistically expect from that point going forward. The teams that are serious contenders to win the NC will have already positioned themselves in the top 7 spots nationally.

Bingo. And that was my point for the part of my post that said I "expect" we will make the elite 8, but making the final 4 would exceed my expectations for next season. However, come January, it may all change...

2 years ago few expected a final 4. We eked out a win vs. FSU, and then went on a great run for the season. By the time the NCAA's came around and we looked at how the bracket fell, I think most of us expected either making the NC game and losing, or winning it all. Still we overachieved IMHO.

Last year was NC or bust. IMHO we under achieved.

We lost 2 GREAT players and Azura who might have been great had she stayed. That's a LOT to absorb. Sure we have a great nucleus, but teams like ND and Oregon lost FAR less than we did and on paper, should be better than us. Several other teams (Texas, L'ville, Baylor, and maybe a few others) should also be very good and could easily beat UCONN in the elite 8. Hence my comment that since we aren't the heavy favorite at this time, and there are other teams who are better on paper, or close to it, that making it to the final 4 would exceed my expectations next season.

But as Geno has often said, he will do his best to put the team in a position to win. So we shall see!

 

[Orangutan]

2 years ago few expected a final 4.

Maybe "few" here and even that I doubt. UConn was ranked #1 in the Coaches Poll, #3 in the AP. Outside the bubble, almost everyone expected a Final Four.

Similarly UConn will be #2 or #3 in all the preseason polls this year = Final Four expectations