Predicting the committee 16

[visitingcock]

1. SC
2. Stan
3. NC St
4. Lou
5. Mich
6. Ariz
7. Iowa St
8. Bay
9. Indiana
10. UConn
11. Tenn
12. Okla
13. Tex
14. Fla
15. LSU
16. Ore

1. South Carolina, 2. Stanford, 3. NC State, 4. Louisville, 5. Michigan 6. Arizona, 7. Iowa State, 8. Indiana, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Baylor, 11. UConn, 12. Tennessee, 13. LSU, 14. Notre Dame, 15. Texas and 16. Oregon.

Well, I got the first 7 in order.

Out of all entries regardless of order, I got 15 outta' 16. I had Florida instead of Notre Dame. (SEC homer)

 

[GoChips20]

How far does Michigan fall with its loss to Michigan State, a team that lost to Minn (#78 Massey), Purdue (#60 Massey), West Virginia (#78 Massey), Fordham (#74 Massey), and St. Francis BK (#243 Massey)? They also didn't have 3 of their top 4 players sitting out either.

It’s a relatively quiet in-state WBB rivalry on the national stage, but MSU has had Michigan’s number more often than not in the last few years (or at least it seems that way). Hillmon had a good game but this is not a good loss for Michigan.

 

[Plebe]

I literally had Notre Dame as my #16 in my first draft, but upon further close review of the resumes, I really felt that Georgia still had an ever-so-slightly better resume than ND.

Both teams have a marquee win over NC State, but with the critical difference that GA beat them in Raleigh, while ND's win was at home.

FWIW Georgia also has a win over ND on a neutral court.

Georgia has more Quad 1 wins (7 vs. 5), although they did take a Quad 2 loss at home to Florida earlier this week. However, I don't consider ND's losses to Boston College and Florida State to be any better than that, though technically in Quad 1.

 

[visitingcock]

I literally had Notre Dame as my #16 in my first draft, but upon further close review of the resumes, I really felt that Georgia still had an ever-so-slightly better resume than ND.

Both teams have a marquee win over NC State, but with the critical difference that GA beat them in Raleigh, while ND's win was at home.

FWIW Georgia also has a win over ND on a neutral court.

Georgia has more Quad 1 wins (7 vs. 5), although they did take a Quad 2 loss at home to Florida earlier this week. However, I don't consider ND's losses to Boston College and Florida State to be any better than that, though technically in Quad 1.

Hard for me to consider Florida as a Quad 2 loss at this point in time
.

 

[MSGRET]

Wonder how far AZ falls after it's loss to AZ St, they play again this Sunday @AZ.

 

[visitingcock]

Wonder how far AZ falls after it's loss to AZ St, they play again this Sunday @AZ.

Rivalry Quad 1 loss Shouldn’t hurt much - IF Az wins the rematch. Two losses to AZSt would hurt them.

 

[southie]

Folks need to realize that just about every team is gonna lose one or more games going forward; so, trying to figure out how far one team drops after a loss is really impossible unless you want to figure which other teams lost, which ones won, etc. during a specific time period.

 

[Plebe]

Folks need to realize that just about every team is gonna lose one or more games going forward; so, trying to figure out how far one team drops after a loss is really impossible unless you want to figure which other teams lost, which ones won, etc. during a specific time period.

This x100.

This isn't like following the daily ups and downs of the stock market. Fans have a severe tendency toward recency bias with every game (especially if it's an upset), but by the time selection day rolls around, each data point will be but one small piece of the overall body of work.

 

[ConnMotors]

South Carolina -- Arizona -- Michigan -- Texas
Stanford -- Baylor -- LSU -- Maryland
Louisville -- Indiana -- Tennessee -- Notre Dame
NC State -- Iowa St -- UConn -- Ohio State

 

[southie]

South Carolina -- Arizona -- Michigan -- Texas
Stanford -- Baylor -- LSU -- Maryland
Louisville -- Indiana -- Tennessee -- Notre Dame
NC State -- Iowa St -- UConn -- Ohio State

You omitted Oklahoma . . .

 

[ConnMotors]

You omitted Oklahoma . . .

THEY LOST

 

[southie]

THEY LOST

You think the #9 team losing to the #15 team drops them out of the Top 16 seeds? Get real.

As Creme stated during halftime of the TX/OU game on Saturday night, OU has 5 wins against Top 25 NET teams, and 7 wins against Top 50 NET teams. That is third or fourth most in the country.

 

[visitingcock]

South Carolina -- Arizona -- Michigan -- Texas
Stanford -- Baylor -- LSU -- Maryland
Louisville -- Indiana -- Tennessee -- Notre Dame
NC State -- Iowa St -- UConn -- Ohio State

I would enjoy that Sweet 16 matchup.

 

[ConnMotors]

You think the #9 team losing to the #15 team drops them out of the Top 16 seeds? Get real.

As Creme stated during halftime of the TX/OU game on Saturday night, OU has 5 wins against Top 25 NET teams, and 7 wins against Top 50 NET teams. That is third or fourth most in the country.

I'm am Oklahoma fan too and would love for them to stay in the Top-16. But other teams are on a roll to. Ohio State is winning and Maryland should have been included. Maybe to many ACC teams. We'll find out soon enough

 

[southie]

I'm am Oklahoma fan too and would love for them to stay in the Top-16. But other teams are on a roll to. Ohio State is winning and Maryland should have been included. Maybe to many ACC teams. We'll find out soon enough

I came back to give you props since OU has now lost 2 games in a row, including last night's upset loss at home to Texas Tech (Q3 loss). With Maryland surging, perhaps you'll end up being right in the end. The committee was definitely impressed with OU's wins (based on seeding them #9 last week); so, it will be interesting to see how recent outcomes impact the next reveal.

 

[Ralph]

I would enjoy that Sweet 16 matchup.

Me too, after last night's smackdown. What the heck happened to them. I thought were a very good team. Did they lose some players to injuries/sickness, or just a bad night, or there were never really that good???

 

[ConnMotors]

I came back to give you props since OU has now lost 2 games in a row, including last night's upset loss at home to Texas Tech (Q3 loss). With Maryland surging, perhaps you'll end up being right in the end. The committee was definitely impressed with OU's wins (based on seeding them #9 last week); so, it will be interesting to see how recent outcomes impact the next reveal.

Please my friend this is all good. We had Indiana loosing as well. Michigan now twice. Baylor will be moving up. Iowa State tumbling. I really want UConn to stay a #3 Seed. Arizona doesn't have any ranked teams left on their schedule just like UC. So they may move up. Maryland is in great position to move up to a #2 Seed. They still have Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana on their slate. Can you say Ouch!!!

 

[chrissaran]

How is UConn behind Tenn when they pasted them? No logic to that order. UConn has dealt with their issues, not always great at times, but no way Tenn should be ahead of them. Also, Olivia is dealing with a strained groin. Not as serious as a pulled groin, but groins are not day-to-day.

 

[Plebe]

I'm noticing that the 5-9 range of the committee's latest reveal of 2/10 has become a soft spot, with all of these teams faltering to some degree. The committee may or may not end up cutting Michigan and Indiana some slack for their injured players (depending on whether they come back).

Reveal ranking on 2/10​	Wins since 2/10​	Losses since 2/10​
1. S. Carolina	at Kentucky, 59-50 at Georgia, 72-54	--
2. Stanford	Utah, 91-64 Colorado, 63-46	--
3. NC State	at Boston C., 85-78 OT at Duke, 77-62	--
4. Louisville	Notre Dame, 73-47	--
5. Michigan	--	at Michigan St, 57-63 at Northwestern, 69-71 2OT
6. Arizona	Arizona St, 62-58	at Arizona St, 77-81
7. Iowa State	at TCU, 93-70	at Texas, 48-73
8. Indiana	Michigan St, 76-58	at Nebraska, 55-72
9. Oklahoma	--	at Texas, 63-78 Texas Tech, 87-97
10. Baylor	W. Virginia, 75-57 TCU, 80-55	--
11. UConn	DePaul, 84-60 at Marquette, 72-58	--
12. Tennessee	Missouri, 76-62 Vanderbilt, 66-52	--
13. LSU	Georgia, 73-67 at Texas A&M, 74-58	--
14. Notre Dame	Miami, 69-53	at Louisville, 47-73
15. Texas	Oklahoma, 78-63 Iowa State, 73-48	--
16. Oregon	at Oregon St, 74-66 UCLA, 67-53	Oregon St, 62-68

 

[triaddukefan]

 

[bballnut90]

I'm noticing that the 5-9 range of the committee's latest reveal of 2/10 has become a soft spot, with all of these teams faltering to some degree. The committee may or may not end up cutting Michigan and Indiana some slack for their injured players (depending on whether they come back).

Reveal ranking on 2/10​	Wins since 2/10​	Losses since 2/10​
1. S. Carolina	at Kentucky, 59-50 at Georgia, 72-54	--
2. Stanford	Utah, 91-64 Colorado, 63-46	--
3. NC State	at Boston C., 85-78 OT at Duke, 77-62	--
4. Louisville	Notre Dame, 73-47	--
5. Michigan	--	at Michigan St, 57-63 at Northwestern, 69-71 2OT
6. Arizona	Arizona St, 62-58	at Arizona St, 77-81
7. Iowa State	at TCU, 93-70	at Texas, 48-73
8. Indiana	Michigan St, 76-58	at Nebraska, 55-72
9. Oklahoma	--	at Texas, 63-78 Texas Tech, 87-97
10. Baylor	W. Virginia, 75-57 TCU, 80-55	--
11. UConn	DePaul, 84-60 at Marquette, 72-58	--
12. Tennessee	Missouri, 76-62 Vanderbilt, 66-52	--
13. LSU	Georgia, 73-67 at Texas A&M, 74-58	--
14. Notre Dame	Miami, 69-53	at Louisville, 47-73
15. Texas	Oklahoma, 78-63 Iowa State, 73-48	--
16. Oregon	at Oregon St, 74-66 UCLA, 67-53	Oregon St, 62-68

Almost of those losses are bad losses too:

Michigan-both losses are to teams not projected to make the tournament

Arizona-Arizona State is a bubble team, projected as 11 seed.

Indiana-this one isn't as bad considering Nebraska is a safely projected tournament team (7 seed), but losing by 17 is an eye sorer.

Iowa State-no shame in losing to Texas, but losing by 25 is rough

Oklahoma-a 10 point loss at home to 10-14 Texas Tech is awful. Pretty mindboggling how Texas Tech has road wins by 10+ over OU and Texas but is 1-10 in all other conference games.

 

[Plebe]

Pretty mindboggling how Texas Tech has road wins by 10+ over OU and Texas but is 1-10 in all other conference games.

So Texas Tech is the Auburn of the Big 12.

With all the volatility in the 5-16 range, Texas could find itself back on the 2 seed line if it continues to play well.

 

[HopJim]

Just conjecture but predicting the NCAA will develop brackets that would have SC and UConn meeting in the Finals if both win out.

 

[HuskyNan]

How is UConn behind Tenn when they pasted them? No logic to that order. UConn has dealt with their issues, not always great at times, but no way Tenn should be ahead of them. Also, Olivia is dealing with a strained groin. Not as serious as a pulled groin, but groins are not day-to-day.

Tenn has beaten Arkansas (twice), Georgia and Texas among others. UConn’s best win is…Tennessee

 

[Plebe]

Just conjecture but predicting the NCAA will develop brackets that would have SC and UConn meeting in the Finals if both win out.

Well, there's about a 50 percent chance you're right.

 

[Vowelguy]

How is UConn behind Tenn when they pasted them? No logic to that order. UConn has dealt with their issues, not always great at times, but no way Tenn should be ahead of them. Also, Olivia is dealing with a strained groin. Not as serious as a pulled groin, but groins are not day-to-day.

1) UConn is not behind Tenn
2) why is UConn ahead of GaT ?
3) bracket rankings are not based on one game, but the entire resume

 

[visitingcock]

1) UConn is not behind Tenn
2) why is UConn ahead of GaT ?
3) bracket rankings are not based on one game, but the entire resume

Plus some eye of newt.

 

[sun]

Just conjecture but predicting the NCAA will develop brackets that would have SC and UConn meeting in the Finals if both win out.

Considering that SC and Stanford are #1 & #2 and the most probable match-up for the NC, IMO it's all about which teams can upset either of those 2 favorites.
If UConn wants the Bridgeport home advantage, then there's no other choice then for a semi-final match up against SC.
It seems like the NCAA is now favoring UConn in Bridgeport so they don't appear biased by sending UConn away, and all due to Paige being injured most of the season.
I would think that the NCAA wants to promote Paige as being capable of leading an upset since she's a poster girl for the NCAA, the future of WCBB and the match up would make for good hype if it comes to pass.

 

[Zorro]

3rd seed in Bridgeport would suit me to a T!

 

[ConnMotors]

South Carolina -- Arizona -- Michigan -- Texas
Stanford -- Baylor -- LSU -- Maryland
Louisville -- Indiana -- Tennessee -- Notre Dame
NC State -- Iowa St -- UConn -- Ohio State

The pot got stirred last night just slightly.

#3 Louisville -- lost at UNC. This may or may not drop them to overall Fourth #1 seed. They have two games left against ranked teams. vs. #23 Virginia Tech and at #19 Notre Dame.

#4 NC State -- have won five straight. They may move up to the Third #1 Seed because of their win over Louisiville.

#5 Indiana -- lost at Nebraska. Now play #22 Iowa twice in a row followed by a game #13 Maryland.

#6 Iowa State -- got blown out at #14 Texas. Will host #15 Oklahoma on the 19th and then #7 Baylor of the 28th.

#7 Baylor -- they are on a roll and will be moving on up. Only game left against a ranked team is at #6 Iowa State

#8 Arizona -- no movement with them. No games left against Top 25 teams.

#9 Michigan -- this team has lost it's last two games and are hurting themselves. Up next is a game vs. #13 Maryland then at #22 Iowa.

So my new look:

South Carolina -- Arizona -- Iowa State -- Notre Dame
Stanford -- Indiana -- LSU -- Oklahoma
NC State -- Maryland -- Texas -- Florida
Louisville -- Baylor -- UConn -- Michigan