Pre-Season Prediction Thread | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Pre-Season Prediction Thread

Travelman32 said:
Honestly I think if someone were to really dig through every P5 team history for the past few decades (30 or 40 years) you could find a few amazing turn arounds like that here and there. If Uconn is one of those few I really do think a coach like Hurley is one of the few who can do it. I wonder how many times a team has made a +10 win turn around from one season to the next. Uconn would need 24 wins to do that.
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I've actually done the work before, so I wasn't talking out of my arse. I posted it on the Yard. It would be in discussion for Top 5 and unequivocally in the Top 10.

I can't find it from a quick search though.
 
intlzncster said:
I've actually done the work before. I posted it on the Yard. It would be in discussion for Top 5 and unequivocally in the Top 10.

I can't find it from a quick search though.
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Really? Wow. That would be absolutely impressive to read if it can be found. Maybe just below "one of the greatest" but I think Hurley can easily account for 5 to 7 extra wins.
 
Travelman32 said:
Really? Wow. That would be absolutely impressive to read if it can be found. Maybe just below "one of the greatest" but I think Hurley can easily account for 5 to 7 extra wins.
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For the record, I was talking the big boy conferences, not like the WAC or anything.

I would call it Top 10, but not Top 5. But if they made some sort of miraculous Final Four run, I'd amend that.
 
I wrote in the Katz Preview thread that, "...I think any prediction where the regular season win totals starts with a "2" in the tens column or losses number in the single digits is an indication that the predictor is outside his/her own mind."

Without all the in depth analysis above about who they are playing and when, I'd realistically expect .500 to be attainable, with a ceiling of a handful of games greater than that. I'd love to see a better record, but nothing is going to convince me to adjust my expectations until I see:

1) perimeter defense
2) perimeter shooting
3) how the front court Smurfs perform in traffic.
 
Husky25 said:
I wrote in the Katz Preview thread that, "...I think any prediction where the regular season win totals starts with a "2" in the tens column or losses number in the single digits is an indication that the predictor is outside his/her own mind."

Without all the in depth analysis above about who they are playing and when, I'd realistically expect .500 to be attainable, with a ceiling of a handful of games greater than that. I'd love to see a better record, but nothing is going to convince me to adjust my expectations until I see:

1) perimeter defense
2) perimeter shooting
3) how the front court Smurfs perform in traffic.
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I generally agree with you, but I think this team is slightly more talented with a year of development for the younger guys (I wasn't a big fan of Larrier's all-around game). I also think having a coach that won't be moping on the bench with his head in his hands will go a long way.

You may be right about not getting to 20 wins, but I don't think it's that crazy either.

What's more important to me this year is not getting demolished by anybody. The Arkansas and Auburn games last year were the lowest of lows.
 
We’re starting with a team that, for the past two years hasn’t been able to score, defend or rebound.

We’ll know just how extensive the damage wrought by the previous regieme is within the first few games.

I want to see a team that competes and hustles and shows a general willingness to do what it takes to win.

(Note, my prediction of 20-11 and an AAC tournament championship is, like, a tremendous turnaround lol)
 
HuskyHawk said:
Is it the same team?

  • Adams: senior guard, stronger, different mindset, not having to be only ball handler.
  • Vital: Junior (often a big leap), different mindset, reduced role limits bad shots because there was nobody else
  • Gilbert: not a question mark. He is fine. 5* McD AA PG, with two additional years of mental experience and wisdom. Healthier than in High School.
  • Carlton: no longer a freshman, stronger
  • Polley: started hitting shots late, shot over 40% from 3. Now more experienced
  • Diarra: Health is a ?? but KO never played him
  • Whaley: Older, stronger, not a freshman
  • Williams: Older, learning the game, more experienced
  • B. Adams: New player, combo guard with a solid all around game
  • Wilson: New player...as a Sophomore age wise, explosive athletic wing. Additional ball handler. Had nobody like this last year.
  • Yawke: New player. Experienced senior. Rim protector on D. Had nobody like this. Huge upgrade over DO.
  • Smith: New player. Experience senior. Scorer, ball handler, more size. Upgrade over Anderson.
That doesn't even count the coach. I think Ollie was good for at least mins 4-5 games by himself. His offense was atrocious. His playing time decisions were inexplicably bad. His teams didn't hustle, they played hard on defense for one game that I saw, SMU. This team has vastly more depth. From 3 ball handlers to 6. They will press. They will attack on defense and offense. They will hustle or be pulled.

The talent is much improved. The depth is improved. The coaching is improved.
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You made a positive assumption on almost all of these players. I'm all for optimism but thinking that we're going to see a significant improvement from all of these players is very wishful thinking.

Ollie wasn't a good coach, we know that. But I think it's important to keep in mind that the recruiting classes he was pulling in towards the end of his tenure were not very good. Gilbert, Adams and Wilson are the only four-star recruits we have, according to ESPN. And I'm not sure how you declare Gilbert as a non-question mark when he's had surgery on his shoulder three times since arriving on campus two years ago.

The depth and coaching are improved, or at least they should be, but I wouldn't say the talent is 'much improved'. Just because we are returning players does not mean we are returning production.
 
GetTheFacts said:
Surprised by the optimism on this thread. This is essentially the same team from last season and a lot of people on here were in agreement about the lack of talent on the roster. I'll say 19-12.

We don't really have reliable scoring outside of Adams. Gilbert's health is a major question mark. Wilson could step up but we don't really know anything about his scoring ability.

I hope Vital gets relegated back to a 20-minutes per game player off the bench or greatly improves his shot-selection.
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+Wilson,Adams, Yankees and Gilbert. It’s not the same team. Throw in an improved Cobb, plus a step up for the rest, I think we are looking at 20+ wins.
 
19-12. Two wins in aac tourney. Three wins in Nit. Set up for years to come.
 
Stinger92860 said:
+Wilson,Adams, Yankees and Gilbert. It’s not the same team. Throw in an improved Cobb, plus a step up for the rest, I think we are looking at 20+ wins.
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I don't understand this enthusiasm about Cobb. What did he do last year to distinguish himself from are other bigs? He was a big that hit a 3 and try to dribble like a guard who couldn't guard anyone. I'm glad he has worked hard to keep the weight down but I just see him being a good bench player. Remember he this is the same player who was a rarely used Freshman at South Carolina. This isn't football.

Also, until Gilbert has played more than 10 games I'm not counting on him. Lots of question marks with this team but at least we have a Captain at the wheel this year. I think 20-22 wins is the high mark for this team. Anything else would be gravy.
 
3rdbass said:
I don't understand this enthusiasm about Cobb. What did he do last year to distinguish himself from are other bigs? He was a big that hit a 3 and try to dribble like a guard who couldn't guard anyone. I'm glad he has worked hard to keep the weight down but I just see him being a good bench player. Remember he this is the same player who was a rarely used Freshman at South Carolina. This isn't football.

Also, until Gilbert has played more than 10 games I'm not counting on him. Lots of question marks with this team but at least we have a Captain at the wheel this year. I think 20-22 wins is the high mark for this team. Anything else would be gravy.
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Well, for one, Cobb has a completely new, athletic build.
 
Dove said:
28-3.

Finish season Top 10

AAC Regular season champs and Tourney runner-up, tho.

#5 seed in NCAAs

Win championship over Duke...80-76
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It's pre-season. Can't you be a little optimistic?
 
HuskyHawk said:
Is it the same team?

  • Adams: senior guard, stronger, different mindset, not having to be only ball handler.
  • Vital: Junior (often a big leap), different mindset, reduced role limits bad shots because there was nobody else
  • Gilbert: not a question mark. He is fine. 5* McD AA PG, with two additional years of mental experience and wisdom. Healthier than in High School.
  • Carlton: no longer a freshman, stronger
  • Polley: started hitting shots late, shot over 40% from 3. Now more experienced
  • Diarra: Health is a ?? but KO never played him
  • Whaley: Older, stronger, not a freshman
  • Williams: Older, learning the game, more experienced
  • B. Adams: New player, combo guard with a solid all around game
  • Wilson: New player...as a Sophomore age wise, explosive athletic wing. Additional ball handler. Had nobody like this last year.
  • Yawke: New player. Experienced senior. Rim protector on D. Had nobody like this. Huge upgrade over DO.
  • Smith: New player. Experience senior. Scorer, ball handler, more size. Upgrade over Anderson.
That doesn't even count the coach. I think Ollie was good for at least mins 4-5 games by himself. His offense was atrocious. His playing time decisions were inexplicably bad. His teams didn't hustle, they played hard on defense for one game that I saw, SMU. This team has vastly more depth. From 3 ball handlers to 6. They will press. They will attack on defense and offense. They will hustle or be pulled.

The talent is much improved. The depth is improved. The coaching is improved.
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You left off the X-factor. Cobb. Seventh ball handler, dunking and rebounding machine and three point specialist.
But, to be serious, he sure seemed determined in the off-season to make himself a better player, so he just might surprise us all.
 
Scrutiner said:
How about a team that went 31-6 the year after they were 18-13?

1988-1989 and 1989-1990 UConn.
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UConn has done it a couple of times and in recent years. UConn went from 18-16 in '10 season to 32-9 in '11 season (winning the national championship).

In '13 UConn went 20-10 and then in '14 UConn went 32-8 (winning the national championship).
 
HawkHusky said:
Well, for one, Cobb has a completely new, athletic build.
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But there are no reports from practice that he has distinguished himself from the others. I only hear about Carlton showing upside in practice. I just think people need lower their expectations about Cobb as there is no track record that he is going to break out his Sr. Season. Now with Gilbert there is a track record so if he stays healthy he will definitely have a huge impact and take a lot of the pressure off Jalen.
 
Scrutiner said:
You left off the X-factor. Cobb. Seventh ball handler, dunking and rebounding machine and three point specialist.
But, to be serious, he sure seemed determined in the off-season to make himself a better player, so he just might surprise us all.
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If he can give us rebounding and 5 more fouls down low, that’s helpful. Add a few points and it’s a marked improvement. I’m hoping he is more athletic and better defend. Anything else is gravy.
 
Scrutiner said:
You left off the X-factor. Cobb. Seventh ball handler, dunking and rebounding machine and three point specialist.
But, to be serious, he sure seemed determined in the off-season to make himself a better player, so he just might surprise us all.
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Huge omission and unintended! He has probably made the biggest change of anyone. He looks amazing physically, and he always had skills.
 
GetTheFacts said:
You made a positive assumption on almost all of these players. I'm all for optimism but thinking that we're going to see a significant improvement from all of these players is very wishful thinking.

Ollie wasn't a good coach, we know that. But I think it's important to keep in mind that the recruiting classes he was pulling in towards the end of his tenure were not very good. Gilbert, Adams and Wilson are the only four-star recruits we have, according to ESPN. And I'm not sure how you declare Gilbert as a non-question mark when he's had surgery on his shoulder three times since arriving on campus two years ago.

The depth and coaching are improved, or at least they should be, but I wouldn't say the talent is 'much improved'. Just because we are returning players does not mean we are returning production.
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  • It is almost universally true that college players improve over their careers. It's why senior laden teams with lower level talent can still be very strong (see: Wichita State)
  • Gilbert's surgery was entirely different. A permanent fix this time. Not sure why people aren't aware of this.
  • Gilbert was a 5*, J Adams a 4-5*, Wilson a 4*, Diarra a 4*
  • Carlton, Vital and Polley are solid 3* players so far.
Go count the 4* players on other teams in the conference. Memphis has 3 coming in, Houston one.
In 2017 there was one, to Cinci (Cumberland)
In 2016 UConn had 4 (3 transferred out), Cinci 1. No others.
In 2015 UConn had a 5* and a 4* Memphis had 3 4s, SMU had 2, USF 1, Temple 2, Cinci 2. (good year, right after UConn won a NC)

UConn and Memphis have the most talent in the league by recruiting metrics. Wichita State brought in 7 3* players last year. That's what they win with. Veteran 3* guys. Guys like Vital, and Smith and Yawke.
 
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