Pre-Season Prediction Thread

[browndog319]

UConn has done it a couple of times and in recent years. UConn went from 18-16 in '10 season to 32-9 in '11 season (winning the national championship).

In '13 UConn went 20-10 and then in '14 UConn went 32-8 (winning the national championship).

And 2011 and 2014, we looked pretty bad going into the tourney.
In fact, I often use the 2011 ending the regular season to a home loss, JC making them practice fundamentals until they left for NYC, and going on the 11 game tear story in presentations to sales forces. Yeah, I wear my fandom proudly... and it’s a great motivational story.
Someone should make THAT movie.

 

[UC1995]

19-12. Not sure that the talent gap can be made up enough by hustle. Their learning curve will be a big one. If we can get to double digits wins by game 16 or 17 I will be happy with the progress the players are making.

 

[zepfan]

21 and 10

 

[AZHuskiePop]

18-13, love the optimism from you guys though.

That’s about where we were if Gilbert doesn’t get hurt last year with a much weaker team.
Against this year’s much weaker Schedule..
That’s totally unacceptable barring injuries to Gilbert or JA.
20 wins is baseline acceptable given the team experience and weak schedule.

 

[AntG168]

That’s about where we were if Gilbert doesn’t get hurt last year with a much weaker team.
Against this year’s much weaker Schedule..
That’s totally unacceptable barring injuries to Gilbert or JA.
20 wins is baseline acceptable given the team experience and weak schedule.

Yea there's a weird perception that this is a young team. We are not a young team. Plenty of experience on this roster

 

[CTBasketball]

I predict some positive buzz around the program for the first time in a few years.

Bubble team I think though. Over 20 wins would be a great place for Hurley to start.

 

[Bonk]

Do you think we will slip up an lose to one of our low-mid major opponents? While it won't be that impressive I think taking care of business with all of those teams will help Hurley cement his winning "culture" going forward and proving that we won't play down to inferior opponents

 

[Scrutineer]

Without a doubt 24-7.
Way better backcourt, improved defense and running game, improved 3 point shooting, weaker league and non-league schedules and the Cobbster showing he can score and rebound and lead us to the tournament (NCAA, not the AAC tournament which we'll win using the same defense Calhoun used to shut down Shaq in 1991).
Thinking Nostically, we're good for the Sweet Sixteen, but wait, they COULD win it all...........

 

[Wordbomar]

I know I gave my prediction already (22-9) but I figured I'd try to break down the schedule a little more:

There's the Must-Wins, Should Wins, Toss-Up Games, and likely Losses.

Must-Wins (8-0)

Vs. Morehead St.
Vs. UMKC
Vs. Cornell
Vs. UNH
Vs. UMass-Lowell
Vs. Lafayette
Vs. Manhattan
Vs. Drexel

Should Wins (5-1)

@ USF
@ Tulsa
Vs. Tulane
Vs. ECU
Vs. USF
@ ECU

Toss-Up Games (8-4)

Vs. Oregon/Iowa (MSG)
Vs. Arizona
Vs. Florida St. (Newark)
Vs. UCF
Vs. SMU
Vs. Wichita St.
@ UCF
@ Temple
@ Memphis
Vs. Houston
@ SMU
Vs. Temple

Likely Losses (1-4)

Vs. Villanova (MSG)
Vs. Syracuse (MSG)
@ Cincinnati
Vs. Cincinnati
@ Wichita St.


So basically, if we take care of business in our "Must Win" games, have only 1 wtf loss in our "Should Win" games, win 2/3 of our "Toss-Up" games, and have 1 wtf win in our "Likely Losses", that gives us 22-9 and a really good chance to have a NCAA bid going into AAC tournament play.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

@Wordbomar I like your method for grouping the games, but I consider toss-ups closer to 50-50 win%

I would change USF at home to must win, Wichita at home to likely win, @ Wichita to toss-up, and @ UCF and Florida state as likely losses.

Must win-- 9-0
Likely win-- 5-1
Toss-ups-- 5-5
Likely loss-- 1-5

20-11

 

[Wordbomar]

@Wordbomar I like your method for grouping the games, but I consider toss-ups closer to 50-50 win%

I would change USF at home to must win, Wichita at home to likely win, @ Wichita to toss-up, and @ UCF and Florida state as likely losses.

Must win-- 9-0
Likely win-- 5-1
Toss-ups-- 5-5
Likely loss-- 1-5

20-11

Can't argue with your thoughts, but I guess I'll just explain my reasoning. I struggled with where to put the Wichita games because they're known for always overachieving despite low ranked recruits. I couldn't put UCF in the likely losses because I just couldn't bring myself to the thought that they're that much better than us. We have beaten them 8 out of the 9 times since the AAC inception. Most overrated team in the conference in my opinion. Florida State I put in toss ups because of the fact the game is neutral site in an area where it should feel like a UConn home game. Oh, and USF was in should win category just because it was a conference game.

 

[Son of Robert]

I know I gave my prediction already (22-9) but I figured I'd try to break down the schedule a little more:

There's the Must-Wins, Should Wins, Toss-Up Games, and likely Losses.

Must-Wins (8-0)

Vs. Morehead St.
Vs. UMKC
Vs. Cornell
Vs. UNH
Vs. UMass-Lowell
Vs. Lafayette
Vs. Manhattan
Vs. Drexel

Should Wins (5-1)

@ USF
@ Tulsa
Vs. Tulane
Vs. ECU
Vs. USF
@ ECU

Toss-Up Games (8-4)

Vs. Oregon/Iowa (MSG)
Vs. Arizona
Vs. Florida St. (Newark)
Vs. UCF
Vs. SMU
Vs. Wichita St.
@ UCF
@ Temple
@ Memphis
Vs. Houston
@ SMU
Vs. Temple

Likely Losses (1-4)

Vs. Villanova (MSG)
Vs. Syracuse (MSG)
@ Cincinnati
Vs. Cincinnati
@ Wichita St.


So basically, if we take care of business in our "Must Win" games, have only 1 wtf loss in our "Should Win" games, win 2/3 of our "Toss-Up" games, and have 1 wtf win in our "Likely Losses", that gives us 22-9 and a really good chance to have a NCAA bid going into AAC tournament play.

Good breakdown. Hate the category likely losses, the sound of it, but agree that Villanova,@Cincinatti, and @Wichita St. will be really tough, but I think we'll beat Syracuse and Cincinatti at home.

 

[intlzncster]

I know I gave my prediction already (22-9) but I figured I'd try to break down the schedule a little more:

There's the Must-Wins, Should Wins, Toss-Up Games, and likely Losses.

Must-Wins (8-0)

Vs. Morehead St.
Vs. UMKC
Vs. Cornell
Vs. UNH
Vs. UMass-Lowell
Vs. Lafayette
Vs. Manhattan
Vs. Drexel

Should Wins (5-1)

@ USF
@ Tulsa
Vs. Tulane
Vs. ECU
Vs. USF
@ ECU

Toss-Up Games (8-4)

Vs. Oregon/Iowa (MSG)
Vs. Arizona
Vs. Florida St. (Newark)
Vs. UCF
Vs. SMU
Vs. Wichita St.
@ UCF
@ Temple
@ Memphis
Vs. Houston
@ SMU
Vs. Temple

Likely Losses (1-4)

Vs. Villanova (MSG)
Vs. Syracuse (MSG)
@ Cincinnati
Vs. Cincinnati
@ Wichita St.


So basically, if we take care of business in our "Must Win" games, have only 1 wtf loss in our "Should Win" games, win 2/3 of our "Toss-Up" games, and have 1 wtf win in our "Likely Losses", that gives us 22-9 and a really good chance to have a NCAA bid going into AAC tournament play.

That's more work than I'm willing to do and 1 or 2 wins above my prediction. So I'm ballpark.

 

[intlzncster]

Good breakdown. Hate the category likely losses, the sound of it, but agree that Villanova,@Cincinatti, and @Wichita St. will be really tough, but I think we'll beat Syracuse and Cincinatti at home.

How about 'Very Tough to Win'

 

[Wordbomar]

Good breakdown. Hate the category likely losses, the sound of it, but agree that Villanova,@Cincinatti, and @Wichita St. will be really tough, but I think we'll beat Syracuse and Cincinatti at home.

If we’re being honest I tried really hard to think of a better name, but couldn’t

 

[B1GEast]

I really don't want to make any predictions. I was so broken after last year, early in the season too.

I'm just going to let the season unfold. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not going to worry about any team on the schedule.

I hope the mojo finds it way back, it's been a while.

Go Uconn

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I predict some positive buzz around the program for the first time in a few years.

Bubble team I think though. Over 20 wins would be a great place for Hurley to start.

Has anyone actually compared last year’s schedule to this year.
We don’t have a single non-league Road game
All our P5 games are home or Neutral court all having a decided UConn flavor. If the situation was reversed the BY would consider them all away games
Is there one preseason top twenty team in the AAC?l Last year there were 3 two being top 10.
The teams :
2017-18
We had 8 new players of which
3-4 were actually recruits 3 of them were very young.
The other 4-5 were desperation adds to fill a depleated roster
We also had 3 players coming off very serious possible career ending injuries
Two were red shirt freshman starting over one was quickly lost for the year
One was a shell of his pre- injury self
Only two returning players had significant time together. One of those a hustler with some serious drawbacks.
That collection was thrown out against the best schedule we played in years .
We won 14 games with a team that quit Jan 25 possibly because they had a lame duck coach and a NCAA probe hanging over their heads. Although there was some attempt to play D in the Houston loss.
This year we have 10 returning players all with game experience against some of the top teams in the country.
The champions of th SEC, Big East and NC, a 30 win Big ten team and a sweet sixteen team
2018-19:
We actually added two post grads that nicely fill some needs
Plus a big shooting guard with better than anticipated ball skills and size to play the 3 .plus a highly recruited transfer .
Winning anything less than 20 is a fail
* our P5 games are either at MSG ,Newark ,or Hartford.

 

[kobe]

32-0

 

[B1GEast]

32-0

You know Kobe all this does is give us mojo.

 

[kobe]

You know Kobe all this does is give us mojo.

0-32

 

[manbyrd]

0-32

0-31 but we win out in the AAC and NCAA tournaments.

 

[Tex-Lager93]

At home opener for USF...not much excitement. Empty house. Handful of students.

 

[bendm]

20-11 (best case 23-8; worst case 17-14)

lose in the conference tourney finals. 11 seed in the ncaa tourney.

I'll take it.

 

[August_West]

We are easily a 10 win team.

 

[Towney007]

20-11 (best case 23-8; worst case 17-14)

lose in the conference tourney finals. 11 seed in the ncaa tourney.

I'll take it.

That is exactly where i'm at. I'm probably more optimistic that we're a 20 win team.

I like our back court an awful lot so long as Gilbert can stay healthy. Truth is though - he hasn't played a lot of D1 basketball yet - so I think there's going to be a bit of a learning curve. I think we stand to be among one of the better backcourts in the country, tbh if things fall OK.

The problem and we've all gone over it a zillion times - is that the front court's best case scenario is being below average. We lack genuine girth and reading through the tea leaves and the very little of what we've seen - rebounding is going to be a real issue. I like Cobb and Diarra's motors, but really outside of that - it's a mishmosh of bit players and lottery tickets.

I think there's enough talent in the backcourt to win a lot of games and I think we'll at least look like we know what we're doing - I just don't think we'll have a shot against a lot of bigger teams. I still think we're a solid year or two away from making big noise again.