Pre-Season Prediction Thread

[intlzncster]

Made sure to read and re read each and every comment. Year is over. I expected much more from this group. By that I mean an NIT bid, 3 over 500. So Dan Hurley gets a pass for year one(even though at 3 million, he should not). Better coach(presumed), weaker schedule, better line up...did not translate into a better team. Biggest impact to me is the AAC is a lot better (top to bottom) than previous years. Worst thing to happen in the tourney was being on fire with 3's in game one, which set them up for the Memphis Massacre. Pretty good recruiting class, so looking forward to next year.

If this were the criterion, you would have to fire a coach every single season.

Anyone thinking objectively would get the idea that it takes at least 3 years to rebuild reasonably. When your guys start to become upperclassmen. Especially considering the depths from whence we came. We were one of the worst teams in America last year.

The number of 1 or even 2 year rebuilds is small. And those usually start with a a more stacked cupboard and/or involves paying talent to come play.

And as far as his 2.75m salary this year, that comes in at Number 30 nationally. That's the going rate for new hires of any semi decent program these days.

As far as this particular thread is concerned, I was too high, but also fighting everyone to come down from their pie-in-the-sky-predictions. I even hedged lower in subsequent threads/discussions. In the end, I was thinking 18w's, with above .500 being OK. What with our injuries, that's not too far off.

I think everyone underestimated the strength of the AAC this year. We all thought it would be a weak year for the league. But it ended up being pretty deep.

 

[auror]

I think everyone underestimated the strength of the AAC this year. We all thought it would be a weak year for the league. But it ended up being pretty deep.

The top was relatively weak as expected (only 1 top 30 team, although Houston is continuing to clumb), but the middle to bottom of the conference really overachieved. I posted this elsewhere, but instead of teams 6-10 being 170-250 KenPom like previous years, they were 100-130.

That + the PG injuries + bad record in close games sealed our fate.

And for those of you scoring at home, we finished pretty much right at our KenPom rank prediction.

 

[Horatio]

After the performance we put on in the Syracuse win I was convinced that we were-

A. easily going to the tournament with a ranking.
B. Going to get all our 2019 targets based on the continuation of that performance throughout the season.

It was a cruel joke. An illusion. Unreal

 

[willie99]

Catastrophic injuries once again hit hard, and I'm not just talking about Adam's and Gilbert

A few players, or at least two, were colossal busts

 

[intlzncster]

Catastrophic injuries once again hit hard, and I'm not just talking about Adam's and Gilbert

A few players, or at least two, were colossal busts

Who were busts? The only guys who came in with any real upside were Jalen, AG, and Diarra. I can see why you'd say Diarra, given injury, but the other two?

Everyone else is middling along as expected more or less.

 

[tzznandrew]

Anyone thinking objectively would get the idea that it takes at least 3 years to rebuild reasonably. When your guys start to become upperclassmen. Especially considering the depths from whence we came. We were one of the worst teams in America last year.

The number of 1 or even 2 year rebuilds is small. And those usually start with a a more stacked cupboard and/or involves paying talent to come play.

This team finished a good 70 spots higher than last year (KenPom) and 30 higher in Sagarin relative to last year. We had more wins and a better point differential. We didn't lose to mid-majors.

This year's team was roughly equivalent to the team two years ago that finished with the same record. That team was about 15 spots higher than this year's in KenPom and Sagarin, but a thing to consider is the talent differential. That team, though it lost Larrier and Gilbert, still had

Adams
Purvis
Facey
Brimah
Jackson
Enoch
Durham
Vital

Adams, Purvis, Facey, Jackson, Enoch, and Durham were all Top 100 kids. They'd all play more than anyone on this team. Even considering the injuries, that team was way more stacked than this years.

So Hurley got the same record with slightly worst metrics from a team that had way less high D1 talent. (And that team lost to Northeastern and Wagner with a fully healthy roster.)

 

[alphasigko]

It was VERY depressing watching the NCAA selection show knowing the Huskies' NCAA history over the over the last 25 years and knowing that they were so bad this year that they did not have a prayer of even being in the discussion. Next up: NIT selection show at 8:30 EST. I am not sure that it will go well for them there either.

 

[intlzncster]

This team finished a good 70 spots higher than last year (KenPom) and 30 higher in Sagarin relative to last year. We had more wins and a better point differential. We didn't lose to mid-majors.

This year's team was roughly equivalent to the team two years ago that finished with the same record. That team was about 15 spots higher than this year's in KenPom and Sagarin, but a thing to consider is the talent differential. That team, though it lost Larrier and Gilbert, still had

Adams
Purvis
Facey
Brimah
Jackson
Enoch
Durham
Vital

Adams, Purvis, Facey, Jackson, Enoch, and Durham were all Top 100 kids. They'd all play more than anyone on this team. Even considering the injuries, that team was way more stacked than this years.

So Hurley got the same record with slightly worst metrics from a team that had way less high D1 talent. (And that team lost to Northeastern and Wagner with a fully healthy roster.)

So objectively then, we are very much on course--stage 1 of a rebuild. These numbers speak to the depths from whence we came.

It just feels like crap, because we've been dealing with crap for so long. End of the day, crap always feels like crap. Even if it's a bit more solid than last years bog water.

How's that for a metaphor.

 

[intlzncster]

It was VERY depressing watching the NCAA selection show knowing the Huskies' NCAA history over the over the last 25 years and knowing that they were so bad this year that they did not have a prayer of even being in the discussion. Next up: NIT selection show at 8:30 EST. I am not sure that it will go well for them there either.

They don't have a remote chance in hell at the NIT, so I wouldn't bother paying attention.

They're already practicing for next year.

 

[uconnbill]

Losing Adams for seven games probably lost UConn two or three at least which would have meant a winning record. Losing the two best players for any amount of time is a killer. Look at Duke who was 3-3 when Zion went down.

 

[jibsey]

I’m astonished that only 1 predicted our season correctly, Jaker, “pain and suffering”. Over optimism prevailed and that worries me for next year where I think .500 is likely.

 

[Danzz]

18-13 regular season with Al healthy. We deperately need another true PG.