Pre-Season Prediction Thread

[UofCT]

Surprised by the optimism on this thread. This is essentially the same team from last season and a lot of people on here were in agreement about the lack of talent on the roster. I'll say 19-12.

We don't really have reliable scoring outside of Adams. Gilbert's health is a major question mark. Wilson could step up but we don't really know anything about his scoring ability.

I hope Vital gets relegated back to a 20-minutes per game player off the bench or greatly improves his shot-selection.

These are good players that need to be coached. They haven't been coached in 3 years.

 

[Com'rGordon]

18-13, love the optimism from you guys though.

 

[UConnSwag11]

21-10 in the regular season

W - Morehead State
W - UMKC
L - Syracuse
W - Iowa
W - Cornell
W - New Hampshire
W - UMass-Lowell
W - Arizona
W - Lafayette
L - Florida State
W - Manhattan
W - Drexel
L - Villanova
W - @ USF
W - UCF
W - SMU
L - @ Cincy
L - @ Tulsa
W - Tulane
W - Wichita St.
L - @ UCF
W - ECU
W - @ Temple
L - @ Memphis
W - Houston
L - @ SMU
L - Cincy
L - @ Wichita State
W - USF
W - Temple
W - @ ECU

I agree with Syracuse even though I think it will be a close game and we may even pull it off. I think we’ll beat FSU if our fans show up. Zona I have no idea. We played well last year against them so who know

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

25-6? 24-7? Holy moly, did y'all watch this team last March? Lol.

Hurley will turn things around, but give him some dam time, so to speak.

Having said that, our backcourt alone could win us a handful of games, if healthy. 25-6 is very lofty though.

 

[Hugo]

Alterique Gilbert is healthy. It's really as simple as that.

If he is in and out of the lineup, then I think you can start thinking about alternative outcomes but, as long as he is healthy, I don't see any reason why this isn't a tournament team.

Like your optimism, but even if fully healthy, AG still needs to shake off two years of rust and that will take some time. We all need to be patient with his game and allow him time to get back in BB mode and regain his confidence. Fortunately we have enough depth that should give him the time he needs to get there. It will come down to how quickly he can return to form as well as staying healthy.

 

[gtcam]

I'm going with 21-10 at worse, but I think, barring injuries to AG or JA, this team is going to be really hot going into post season play and nobody will want to see them in the tournament - just a gut feeling

 

[gtcam]

21-10 in the regular season

W - Morehead State
W - UMKC
L - Syracuse
W - Iowa
W - Cornell
W - New Hampshire
W - UMass-Lowell
W - Arizona
W - Lafayette
L - Florida State
W - Manhattan
W - Drexel
L - Villanova
W - @ USF
W - UCF
W - SMU
L - @ Cincy
L - @ Tulsa
W - Tulane
W - Wichita St.
L - @ UCF
W - ECU
W - @ Temple
L - @ Memphis
W - Houston
L - @ SMU
L - Cincy
L - @ Wichita State
W - USF
W - Temple
W - @ ECU

I came up with the same 21-10 but I really hope this team doesn't go 3-6 on the road during conference play and asking for 8-1 at home is rather large. Just an observation - yet I do see the home conference schedule brings the more beatable teams to CT

 

[Ewekon]

19 - 12. Motivated NIT champs. Can only hope for better. No faith yet in the front court. Hoping to be proved wrong.

 

[Ts5034]

It all starts with beating the teams we're supposed to beat. That hasn't happened the last few years. The big wins will follow, but it's hard to get to 20 when you're losing to Tulsa, Temple, and Memphis (as bad as they're been).

Exactly. If we beat the “cupcakes” (UMKC, Drexel, etc), that would put us at 8 wins. Then take 1 out of 2 in the 2K Classic and try to get 1 vs Arizona, FSU, or Villanova, that would give us 10 wins going into AAC play. I think a 10-8 conference record can be realistic with 2 more wins in the AAC Tournament.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I admire all of you who have posted here, and offer no predictions.

Given how many games are on SNY & CBSSN, I would most like to see basketball played well-enough to justify the time and the money spent to watch on an as yet undetermined streaming platform.

Seeing so little good basketball over the past 4 seasons has been the greatest frustration, almost irrespective of wins & losses.

 

[bmayuc]

I think that just better coaching and some guts and inspiration should flip 3-5 of the close losses to close wins. Ultimately, that's what separates 14-16 and 19-12, which is my prediction.

I see us going 1-2 in the three pre season major games due to our bad interior play and time for the players to jell, winning all of our cupcakes, and then splitting the conference games right down the middle.

If we get massive contributions from Alterique, Sydney, and Carlton, I think we could be in the low 20 wins. If we struggle playing in Hurleys system we could be closer to 500. Either way, patience is needed, as are prayers to whichever god you prefer for Alteriques shoulder.

1. Morehead St ---- W
2. UMKC --- W
3. Syracuse --- W
4. Oregon --- L
5. Cornell --- W
6. New Hampshire --- W
7. Umass-Lowell --- W
8. Arizona --- L
9. Lafayette --- W
10. Florida St. --- L
11. Manhattan --- W
12. Drexel --- W
13. Villanova --- L
14. @USF --- W
15. UCF --- L
16. SMU --- W
17. @Cincy --- L
18. @ Tulsa --- L
19. Tulane --- W
20. Wichita St. --- L
21. @UCF --- L
22. ECU --- W
23. @Temple --- W
24. @Memphis --- L
25. Houston --- W
26. @SMU --- L
27. Cincy --- W
28. @Wichita St. --- L
29. USF --- W
30. Temple --- W
31. @ECU --- W

 

[MadDogRevival]

I'm just wondering how bad the abuse is going to be if AG doesn't play well enough to make our backcourt "one of the best if not the best in the country."

Guy has played 254 minutes against a few good teams and scrub teams and compiled the following stats:
3pt% of about 23%. FT% of about 60%. Field Goal % of about 36%.

Sure he looked quick. But those numbers are unimpressive, at best, and, while I'm as hopeful as anybody, I can't see offering win guesses based on this guy killing it, if he can avoid injury.

 

[intlzncster]

Damn, lotta people predicting one of the greatest turnarounds in NCAA history. No sarc. The numbers being posted actually would be just that.

 

[intlzncster]

Best Syracuse and everything else is gravy.

But actually;

Just based on past performance, I’m going to go more conservative than others and say 20-11.

Some sure wins, and only one sure loss (@Tulsa, obviously).

Win the AAC tournament, and we start re-Storrs-ing the brand

This is about right I think.

 

[Guapo]

This is about right I think.

Wow, thanks bub

 

[intlzncster]

Sure he looked quick. But those numbers are unimpressive, at best, and, while I'm as hopeful as anybody, I can't see offering win guesses based on this guy killing it, if he can avoid injury.

Liked this post, but I wouldn't infer too much about potential production based on the numbers, because:

1. He's only played a few games of college, neither enough to get comfortable, nor enough for a meaningful sample
2. He was still ailing both years. Remember the waiting for a 'better brace' thing last year? That wasn't done on a whim.
3. Most importantly, the KO factor.

The two biggest mitigating factors for Gilbert will be:

1. Health concerns -- both potential reinjury and lingering/possible limitations post surgery.
2. Rust -- kid has played only a handful of games in a two year span. I don't care if you are superman. It takes a while to get back.

 

[intlzncster]

Wow, thanks bub

Here for you Guapito. Always.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Surprised by the optimism on this thread. This is essentially the same team from last season and a lot of people on here were in agreement about the lack of talent on the roster. I'll say 19-12.

We don't really have reliable scoring outside of Adams. Gilbert's health is a major question mark. Wilson could step up but we don't really know anything about his scoring ability.

I hope Vital gets relegated back to a 20-minutes per game player off the bench or greatly improves his shot-selection.

Is it the same team?

• Adams: senior guard, stronger, different mindset, not having to be only ball handler.
• Vital: Junior (often a big leap), different mindset, reduced role limits bad shots because there was nobody else
• Gilbert: not a question mark. He is fine. 5* McD AA PG, with two additional years of mental experience and wisdom. Healthier than in High School.
• Carlton: no longer a freshman, stronger
• Polley: started hitting shots late, shot over 40% from 3. Now more experienced
• Diarra: Health is a ?? but KO never played him
• Whaley: Older, stronger, not a freshman
• Williams: Older, learning the game, more experienced
• B. Adams: New player, combo guard with a solid all around game
• Wilson: New player...as a Sophomore age wise, explosive athletic wing. Additional ball handler. Had nobody like this last year.
• Yawke: New player. Experienced senior. Rim protector on D. Had nobody like this. Huge upgrade over DO.
• Smith: New player. Experience senior. Scorer, ball handler, more size. Upgrade over Anderson.

That doesn't even count the coach. I think Ollie was good for at least mins 4-5 games by himself. His offense was atrocious. His playing time decisions were inexplicably bad. His teams didn't hustle, they played hard on defense for one game that I saw, SMU. This team has vastly more depth. From 3 ball handlers to 6. They will press. They will attack on defense and offense. They will hustle or be pulled.

The talent is much improved. The depth is improved. The coaching is improved.

 

[intlzncster]

Just don't be like these guys, especially the first. I know the AAC is not ideal but it is not nearly as bad as some people make it. If Memphis, Temple and Uconn step it up especially.

The guy wants to schedule out of conference like the women do. You mean schedule 3/4 of the Top 10 every year??

That's a very simple recipe for not making the tournament.

 

[Travelman6]

Damn, lotta people predicting one of the greatest turnarounds in NCAA history. No sarc. The numbers being posted actually would be just that.

Honestly I think if someone were to really dig through every P5 team history for the past few decades (30 or 40 years) you could find a few amazing turn arounds like that here and there. If Uconn is one of those few I really do think a coach like Hurley is one of the few who can do it. I wonder how many times a team has made a +10 win turn around from one season to the next (and I guess that is the threshold for "one of the greatest). Uconn would need 24 wins to do that.

 

[intlzncster]

Honestly I think if someone were to really dig through every P5 team history for the past few decades (30 or 40 years) you could find a few amazing turn arounds like that here and there. If Uconn is one of those few I really do think a coach like Hurley is one of the few who can do it. I wonder how many times a team has made a +10 win turn around from one season to the next. Uconn would need 24 wins to do that.

I've actually done the work before, so I wasn't talking out of my arse. I posted it on the Yard. It would be in discussion for Top 5 and unequivocally in the Top 10.

I can't find it from a quick search though.

 

[Travelman6]

I've actually done the work before. I posted it on the Yard. It would be in discussion for Top 5 and unequivocally in the Top 10.

I can't find it from a quick search though.

Really? Wow. That would be absolutely impressive to read if it can be found. Maybe just below "one of the greatest" but I think Hurley can easily account for 5 to 7 extra wins.

 

[intlzncster]

Really? Wow. That would be absolutely impressive to read if it can be found. Maybe just below "one of the greatest" but I think Hurley can easily account for 5 to 7 extra wins.

For the record, I was talking the big boy conferences, not like the WAC or anything.

I would call it Top 10, but not Top 5. But if they made some sort of miraculous Final Four run, I'd amend that.

 

[80shusky]

0-31. Book it.

 

[Husky25]

I wrote in the Katz Preview thread that, "...I think any prediction where the regular season win totals starts with a "2" in the tens column or losses number in the single digits is an indication that the predictor is outside his/her own mind."

Without all the in depth analysis above about who they are playing and when, I'd realistically expect .500 to be attainable, with a ceiling of a handful of games greater than that. I'd love to see a better record, but nothing is going to convince me to adjust my expectations until I see:

1) perimeter defense
2) perimeter shooting
3) how the front court Smurfs perform in traffic.

 

[blue93]

I wrote in the Katz Preview thread that, "...I think any prediction where the regular season win totals starts with a "2" in the tens column or losses number in the single digits is an indication that the predictor is outside his/her own mind."

Without all the in depth analysis above about who they are playing and when, I'd realistically expect .500 to be attainable, with a ceiling of a handful of games greater than that. I'd love to see a better record, but nothing is going to convince me to adjust my expectations until I see:

1) perimeter defense
2) perimeter shooting
3) how the front court Smurfs perform in traffic.

I generally agree with you, but I think this team is slightly more talented with a year of development for the younger guys (I wasn't a big fan of Larrier's all-around game). I also think having a coach that won't be moping on the bench with his head in his hands will go a long way.

You may be right about not getting to 20 wins, but I don't think it's that crazy either.

What's more important to me this year is not getting demolished by anybody. The Arkansas and Auburn games last year were the lowest of lows.

 

[Guapo]

We’re starting with a team that, for the past two years hasn’t been able to score, defend or rebound.

We’ll know just how extensive the damage wrought by the previous regieme is within the first few games.

I want to see a team that competes and hustles and shows a general willingness to do what it takes to win.

(Note, my prediction of 20-11 and an AAC tournament championship is, like, a tremendous turnaround lol)

 

[GetTheFacts]

Is it the same team?

• Adams: senior guard, stronger, different mindset, not having to be only ball handler.
• Vital: Junior (often a big leap), different mindset, reduced role limits bad shots because there was nobody else
• Gilbert: not a question mark. He is fine. 5* McD AA PG, with two additional years of mental experience and wisdom. Healthier than in High School.
• Carlton: no longer a freshman, stronger
• Polley: started hitting shots late, shot over 40% from 3. Now more experienced
• Diarra: Health is a ?? but KO never played him
• Whaley: Older, stronger, not a freshman
• Williams: Older, learning the game, more experienced
• B. Adams: New player, combo guard with a solid all around game
• Wilson: New player...as a Sophomore age wise, explosive athletic wing. Additional ball handler. Had nobody like this last year.
• Yawke: New player. Experienced senior. Rim protector on D. Had nobody like this. Huge upgrade over DO.
• Smith: New player. Experience senior. Scorer, ball handler, more size. Upgrade over Anderson.

That doesn't even count the coach. I think Ollie was good for at least mins 4-5 games by himself. His offense was atrocious. His playing time decisions were inexplicably bad. His teams didn't hustle, they played hard on defense for one game that I saw, SMU. This team has vastly more depth. From 3 ball handlers to 6. They will press. They will attack on defense and offense. They will hustle or be pulled.

The talent is much improved. The depth is improved. The coaching is improved.

You made a positive assumption on almost all of these players. I'm all for optimism but thinking that we're going to see a significant improvement from all of these players is very wishful thinking.

Ollie wasn't a good coach, we know that. But I think it's important to keep in mind that the recruiting classes he was pulling in towards the end of his tenure were not very good. Gilbert, Adams and Wilson are the only four-star recruits we have, according to ESPN. And I'm not sure how you declare Gilbert as a non-question mark when he's had surgery on his shoulder three times since arriving on campus two years ago.

The depth and coaching are improved, or at least they should be, but I wouldn't say the talent is 'much improved'. Just because we are returning players does not mean we are returning production.

 

[crazyUCfan23]

23-8 regular season

 

[Stinger92860]

Surprised by the optimism on this thread. This is essentially the same team from last season and a lot of people on here were in agreement about the lack of talent on the roster. I'll say 19-12.

We don't really have reliable scoring outside of Adams. Gilbert's health is a major question mark. Wilson could step up but we don't really know anything about his scoring ability.

I hope Vital gets relegated back to a 20-minutes per game player off the bench or greatly improves his shot-selection.

+Wilson,Adams, Yankees and Gilbert. It’s not the same team. Throw in an improved Cobb, plus a step up for the rest, I think we are looking at 20+ wins.