Possible Big 12 Invite rumors

[Khal Drogo]

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Internal subsidies from a state institution imply higher student fees/tuition, and/or monies from the state. But state funding has a ceiling, and CT may not be able to participate in a college sports arms race without P5 revenues.

We’re number 1. We’re number 1

 

[CL82]

It’s a life raft.

Sure but it's a life raft that has the two prior men's basketball national champions in it, and is emphasizing being a basketball power and is football P5 conference is going to pay us $51 million a year.

Come to think of it, maybe we should nickname the conference the queen Mary, because it's more of a luxury liner than a life raft.

 

[noeynox]

Sure but it's a life raft that has the two prior men's basketball national champions in it, and is emphasizing being a basketball power and is football P5 conference is going to pay us $51 million a year.

Come to think of it, maybe we should nickname the conference the queen Mary, because it's more of a luxury liner than a life raft.

I believe when the dust settles there will be 3 Power conferences left. Most of the schools currently in the P5 will be in those conferences. Some seen as not carrying their weight will be left out. I would have never thought this years ago, but the Big12 seems better positioned to outlast the ACC and PAC. Does any network want to pay a premium for 4 schools in North Carolina?

 

[CL82]

I believe when the dust settles there will be 3 Power conferences left. Most of the schools currently in the P5 will be in those conferences. Some seen as not carrying their weight will be left out. I would have never thought this years ago, but the Big12 seems better positioned to outlast the ACC and PAC. Does any network want to pay a premium for 4 schools in North Carolina?

Agree. I don't love it geographically, and I would prefer historic rivals, but overall, I'd be grateful for it if it happens.

 

[upstater]

View attachment 88567

Internal subsidies from a state institution imply higher student fees/tuition, and/or monies from the state. But state funding has a ceiling, and CT may not be able to participate in a college sports arms race without P5 revenues.

The school is covering the deficit. Unless the state decides to increase UConn's funding by an amount proportional to the deficit, and make that case to the public, it's the school funding it. If UConn got rid of athletics, the state would not reduce funding to the school by a proportional amount, would it?

 

[upstater]

Read an article today suggesting a potential uneven split of revenue for UConn should they join. That's an ugly road to head down.

NO, they should not do that; unless it's for a limited number of years. This has happened before in the past to many schools.

 

[upstater]

I believe when the dust settles there will be 3 Power conferences left. Most of the schools currently in the P5 will be in those conferences. Some seen as not carrying their weight will be left out. I would have never thought this years ago, but the Big12 seems better positioned to outlast the ACC and PAC. Does any network want to pay a premium for 4 schools in North Carolina?

Not sure about Wake Forest but obviously the answer is YES for Duke, UNC and NC State.

This is why I believe the ACC is in a stronger position than the B12.

In case the ACC breaks up before its GOR is up, the remaining schools will negotiate a better package than the B12--on demographics alone there's more interest in the ACC

 

[Hoophound]

Not sure about Wake Forest but obviously the answer is YES for Duke, UNC and NC State.

This is why I believe the ACC is in a stronger position than the B12.

In case the ACC breaks up before its GOR is up, the remaining schools will negotiate a better package than the B12--on demographics alone there's more interest in the ACC

I don’t know about that. The money may be drying up. I can’t see the ACC, without FSU and Clemson, doing better than the B12 financially. If they could pull that off, I’d think the PAC would be having a much easier time getting a decent deal.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Not sure about Wake Forest but obviously the answer is YES for Duke, UNC and NC State.

This is why I believe the ACC is in a stronger position than the B12.

In case the ACC breaks up before its GOR is up, the remaining schools will negotiate a better package than the B12--on demographics alone there's more interest in the ACC

The ACC simply isn't going to be raided as so many assume. The GOR is beautiful in its vague simplicity. Frank the Tank wrote a good article about why nobody has challenged it. It's too risky. Disagree with @noeynox on 3 leagues, there are too many schools, it will be 4. People underestimate how chummy these university presidents are. The ACC and B12 will survive and probably have similar payouts. The Pac is doomed, and Wash St and Oregon state will beef up the Mountain West. It's already the best non-power conference.

Florida State and Clemson can stop having their tantrum any day now. The SEC doesn't want them anyway. The B1G can look west and safely ignore UNC and UVA. The ACC GOR is going to hold. They may make less than they could the next 10 years, but they'll survive as a result.

Meanwhile, payouts are unsustainable and I'm willing to bet the B1G and SEC aren't getting any more money. Some of this increase is simply inflation. Fox spent to compete with ESPN, ESPN is floundering.

 

[noeynox]

The ACC simply isn't going to be raided as so many assume. The GOR is beautiful in its vague simplicity. Frank the Tank wrote a good article about why nobody has challenged it. It's too risky. Disagree with @noeynox on 3 leagues, there are too many schools, it will be 4. People underestimate how chummy these university presidents are. The ACC and B12 will survive and probably have similar payouts. The Pac is doomed, and Wash St and Oregon state will beef up the Mountain West. It's already the best non-power conference.

Florida State and Clemson can stop having their tantrum any day now. The SEC doesn't want them anyway. The B1G can look west and safely ignore UNC and UVA. The ACC GOR is going to hold. They may make less than they could the next 10 years, but they'll survive as a result.

Meanwhile, payouts are unsustainable and I'm willing to bet the B1G and SEC aren't getting any more money. Some of this increase is simply inflation. Fox spent to compete with ESPN, ESPN is floundering.

I don't think the ACC is going away no time soon, but if the money gap widens between the top 2 leagues and schools like UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson have the option to get into the TOP 2 they will. I don't think schools in current Big12 are desirable the B1G and SEC and that makes it more stable. Good post though/good points.

 

[CL82]

Not sure about Wake Forest but obviously the answer is YES for Duke, UNC and NC State.

This is why I believe the ACC is in a stronger position than the B12.

In case the ACC breaks up before its GOR is up, the remaining schools will negotiate a better package than the B12--on demographics alone there's more interest in the ACC

Yet they currently have a weaker package. Yeah they currently have a weaker package. But I'm sure you're right, without their strongest pieces, they'll get a better deal.

 

[CL82]

The school is covering the deficit. Unless the state decides to increase UConn's funding by an amount proportional to the deficit, and make that case to the public, it's the school funding it. If UConn got rid of athletics, the state would not reduce funding to the school by a proportional amount, would it?

Of course one could argue that the university is paying it from the considerable funds it gets from the state, right?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Sure but it's a life raft that has the two prior men's basketball national champions in it, and is emphasizing being a basketball power and is football P5 conference is going to pay us $51 million a year.

Come to think of it, maybe we should nickname the conference the queen Mary, because it's more of a luxury liner than a life raft.

Actually I think it's four prior men's basketball champions, no?

Kansas, Baylor, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State?

 

[CL82]

Actually I think it's four prior men's basketball champions, no?

Kansas, Baylor, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State?

Immediate prior, so Kansas and Baylor, but yeah fair point.

 

[Rico444]

Sure but it's a life raft that has the two prior men's basketball national champions in it, and is emphasizing being a basketball power and is football P5 conference is going to pay us $51 million a year.

Come to think of it, maybe we should nickname the conference the queen Mary, because it's more of a luxury liner than a life raft.

It'll be more money, sure, but where are you getting $51 million from? Media rights for the current teams is around $31 million from what I've read and that's assuming no other teams join the conference to water down what each team receives. There is a pro rata clause for P5 schools but not G5, which means we would almost certainly receive less than the other schools (or at least lower the amount they earn). Add in more G5 schools and that number will continue to shrink. Add in the buyout owed to the Big East and the entrance fee charged by the Big 12 and our overall number will go down by a good amount for the first few years.

Financially we would make more in the Big 12 but I'm not sure about this $51 million per year number.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Immediate prior, so Kansas and Baylor, but yeah fair point.

True. Could also add Texas Tech as a recent runner up and West Virginia as a long time runner up.

If money and fbs conference affiliation weren't a consideration I'd stay in the Big East no question.. but we can't operate in a vacuum which I think the majority understand but yet still some object.

 

[aburks41]

It'll be more money, sure, but where are you getting $51 million from? Media rights for the current teams is around $31 million from what I've read and that's assuming no other teams join the conference to water down what each team receives. There is a pro rata clause for P5 schools but not G5, which means we would almost certainly receive less than the other schools (or at least lower the amount they earn). Add in more G5 schools and that number will continue to shrink. Add in the buyout owed to the Big East and the entrance fee charged by the Big 12 and our overall number will go down by a good amount for the first few years.

Financially we would make more in the Big 12 but I'm not sure about this $51 million per year number.

CFP revenue bumps it up to ~$50M

 

[MyDorona]

It'll be more money, sure, but where are you getting $51 million from?

"The revenue per school could reportedly increase to nearly $50 million starting in 2025-26, which could grow even bigger depending on money delivered from the 12-team College Football Playoff."

12ft

 

[navery12]

It'll be more money, sure, but where are you getting $51 million from? Media rights for the current teams is around $31 million from what I've read and that's assuming no other teams join the conference to water down what each team receives. There is a pro rata clause for P5 schools but not G5, which means we would almost certainly receive less than the other schools (or at least lower the amount they earn). Add in more G5 schools and that number will continue to shrink. Add in the buyout owed to the Big East and the entrance fee charged by the Big 12 and our overall number will go down by a good amount for the first few years.

Financially we would make more in the Big 12 but I'm not sure about this $51 million per year number.

The other teams joining is a valid point so it probably ends up slightly lower, but this is where that number is coming from

 

[HuskyHawk]

CFP revenue bumps it up to ~$50M

That was a one time thing. It's $31M. About the same as ACC (which is going up each year because it was back end loaded). Then you get CFB playoffs, bowl money and NCAA credits each year, which are variable.

 

[MyDorona]

I would hate to leave the BE as much as anyone- particularly in a moment where the conference is set in the near-term with the most impressive coaching lineup in the sport. And, I do think those games against the dregs of the B12 will generate less local interest than competing against the dregs of the BE. Couple all this with no more BET/MSG, and I think there is a significant risk that interest in the MBB program wanes LOCALLY (though not to the levels of the AAC/Ollie years).

HOWEVER, the program would be foolish to turn down $50MM per school and the associated national exposure from being on ESPN and ESPN.com again. With those things, I would expect robust NIL programs to follow. This is what'll be needed to compete in the future college landscape.

 

[Bongo Fury]

It’s looking like power 2 with Big 12 potentially being best of the rest. ACC would be best fit with competition for UConn but it appears to be a disgruntled conference that hasn’t showed interest in UConn.

 

[upstater]

Yet they currently have a weaker package. Yeah they currently have a weaker package. But I'm sure you're right, without their strongest pieces, they'll get a better deal.

They signed that package over a DECADE ago, and the environment for rights packages has changed over the last 10 years

Check this out:

Florida St v. Texas Tech
Clemson v. Oklahoma St.
North Carolina v. Kansas
Virginia v. Kansas St.
Duke v. Baylor
Miami v. TCU
Virginia Tech v. BYU
NC State v. Kansas St.
Georgia Tech v. Iowa St.
Louisville v. Houston
Pittsburgh v. Cincy

This simple comparison shows you how and why the ACC is more valuable.

Even if I remove the top 3 schools, it's the same exact result.

 

[upstater]

Of course one could argue that the university is paying it from the considerable funds it gets from the state, right?

No, unless you're arguing the state has defunded the academic side. State funding for UConn hasn't tracked with inflation. Which is why tuition has skyrocketed. Start back a decade ago when UConn was losing $10m a year on athletics and move forward from there. Has the state provided an increase in funding that equals inflation increases PLUS the extra $40m athletics loss? No, not when you count the increases alongside the liabilities removed from the state budget and appended to UConn. The move of liabilities from the state ledger to UConn's ledger has meant the school now incurs over $100m more in costs for those liabilities than it used to 10 years ago.

 

[Stinger92860]

Not sure about Wake Forest but obviously the answer is YES for Duke, UNC and NC State.

This is why I believe the ACC is in a stronger position than the B12.

In case the ACC breaks up before its GOR is up, the remaining schools will negotiate a better package than the B12--on demographics alone there's more interest in the ACC

I may not be following along. Are you suggesting that a single state, North Carolina, would secure a larger TV payout than the B12? Who will they play? Who is in this new league With Duke, UNC, and NC St?