Players You Were Wrong About

[4UConn]

Khalid el-Amin...thought he would settle in the NBA for a long-time. Made a costly bet with a good friend who said he lacked the size and speed to be an NBA player. He was right.

 

[mauconnfan]

Khalid el-Amin...thought he would settle in the NBA for a long-time. Made a costly bet with a good friend who said he lacked the size and speed to be an NBA player. He was right.

If he left after his sophomore year he was a hot commodity and would have gone fairly high after the NC and more than likely gained a guaranteed contract……funny how things work out.

 

[Palatine]

Chris Smith, thought he would be a better pro, he never really made it as a NBA PG. and was too small to be a 2.

 

[Horatio]

Charlie Villanueva . It just seems like once he became " rich" , he stopped caring. Doesn't seem to care about the weight training and conditioning that goes along with being a pro. IMO

 

[cordeodato]

I thought Dave DeBusschere for Komives and Bellamey was a horrible trade.
Also thought Larry Bird would be too slow to be even an adequate NBA player.
I think I will stop here.

 

[husky91]

Yes, he has been an underachiever for a lottery pick for sure, but not an extreme case like a Thabeet, Flynn or Darko.

Charlie Villanueva . It just seems like once he became " rich" , he stopped caring. Doesn't seem to care about the weight training and conditioning that goes along with being a pro. IMO

 

[Nostical]

The scouts KNOW!!

Yes and no. It's certainly not self evident. The year after the Bulls drafted MJ they passed on Karl Malone for Keith Lee.(Imagine that team). I would argue that the Spurs had the best scouting staff and hands down the best evaluators of foreign talent--drafting both Tony Parker and Mano Ginnobli far down the list. But what's clear is that the number of superstars, however you define that term, is extremely small and teams often miss the mark. When you hear "this is a weak year for the draft", it's true more often than you ever might remember. Look at the top 5 picks in each year. 1984 stands out, as does 2008. But it's hard to fathom 2000, 2001, 2006 and so many others.
http://basketballreference.com/draft/draftfirst.htm?lg=N

 

[Kitaman]

Has Jeremy Lin been named?

 

[willie99]

Marcus Williams, thought he find a niche
Kevin Ollie, thought he was destined for a D league career
Thabeet, thought he would be more productive. Not a star, but a productive roll player
Caron Butler, thought he would be a much bigger star (had a few years)
Earl Kelly, thought he would make it big

JJ Redick, thought he would be a total bust but he worked hard to adapt

 

[Strummer]

Greg Oden should be taken before Kevin Durant. And as much as injury has not allowed for fair comparison up to this point.

The fact that you used the expression, "to this point," is somewhat disconcerting. I'm not sure if you got the memo, but the comparison was made, writ in stone, and filed on a shelf at the basketball hall of fame about 3 years ago. It reads something like this: "KD - a unique player who combined height, length, shooting prowess, ball handling, and agility to become a phenom who will be remembered as one of the most talented players ever to step on the floor, and GO - Bust (why waste words)."

So there is no "to this point." There is only "done."

Oden was a walking time bomb. The Blazers were incredibly stupid for getting suckered in, and, of course, particularly so given their personal experience with Bowie. The fact is, there were already two very loud, very clear warning signals. The Blazers were so enamored with "potential," however, they ignored those signals. This is particularly egregious given that Durant was there for the taking. If, for example, the other top pick was substantially below Durant, then taking Oden would not have been such a bad call. But Durant was as close to a sure-fire top scorer as you are ever going to see going into the NBA. Durant shot 40% from 3, 81% from the line, and 26/11/2/2 otherwise. As a freshman. Good god those are gaudy numbers.

So what about Oden? Guy had 2 significant injuries prior to being drafted. The 2nd, on his wrist, benched him for 1/2 his only NCAA season. Bad enough. But worse - much worse - the guy had surgery in 6th grade on his hip, which altered his leg length, and he walked with an obvious limp (not from pain, but from misalignment). What? Did nobody think that this guy might be injury prone? Not only because of the two substantial surgeries prior to his 18th birthday, but also because he now had a permanent leg alignment issue?

I said pick Durant. I then said "trade Oden" the day it was announced he was having surgery. I then repeated it every time his name came up for the next couple of years - trade him while he still has value.

So I was right on that one. And on Josh Boone, but that's just the sun shining on a sorry dog's ass now and again, because I truly suck at auguring how guys will pan out in the NBA.

So my truncated list of guys who I didn't predict well:

Badder than I thought:
Chris Smith, KEA, Stan, the beast from Arizona who we couldn't stop that one year, and then the coach inexplicably stopped going to him, Royce White (thought he'd be able to get over his issues and be awesome - loved his game), Pearl, and, last, but not least - Donyell Marshall. I was sure Donyell was going to go pro and end up being the Vanguard of Uconn royalty. I read some crap a few years later where he was quoted as saying he was "waiting his turn" to play, or some bunk. Very disappointing result for him.

Gooder than I thought:
Blake Griffin (yeah, I know, WTF was I thinking), Chris Paul, Curry (well beyond what I imagined), and one of my favorites - Uncle Cliffy, particularly given he was unheralded, was not, it seemed, into health and conditioning, but managed to have a very respectable NBA career.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think people can argue the Oden-Durant thing, but I don't know that anyone thought KD would be a top 3 player, else this would not have been a disscussion.

I agree with Conley and even Zach. I didn't think Zach could be a max player.

Lots of people thought he could or would be. Just Google Bill Simmons on it, who is often really wrong, but was totally right about Durant. Here's just one for you: http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

 

[kcc1442]

The fact that you used the expression, "to this point," is somewhat disconcerting. I'm not sure if you got the memo, but the comparison was made, writ in stone, and filed on a shelf at the basketball hall of fame about 3 years ago. It reads something like this: "KD - a unique player who combined height, length, shooting prowess, ball handling, and agility to become a phenom who will be remembered as one of the most talented players ever to step on the floor, and GO - Bust (why waste words)."

So there is no "to this point." There is only "done."

Oden was a walking time bomb. The Blazers were incredibly stupid for getting suckered in, and, of course, particularly so given their personal experience with Bowie. The fact is, there were already two very loud, very clear warning signals. The Blazers were so enamored with "potential," however, they ignored those signals. This is particularly egregious given that Durant was there for the taking. If, for example, the other top pick was substantially below Durant, then taking Oden would not have been such a bad call. But Durant was as close to a sure-fire top scorer as you are ever going to see going into the NBA. Durant shot 40% from 3, 81% from the line, and 26/11/2/2 otherwise. As a freshman. Good god those are gaudy numbers.

So what about Oden? Guy had 2 significant injuries prior to being drafted. The 2nd, on his wrist, benched him for 1/2 his only NCAA season. Bad enough. But worse - much worse - the guy had surgery in 6th grade on his hip, which altered his leg length, and he walked with an obvious limp (not from pain, but from misalignment). What? Did nobody think that this guy might be injury prone? Not only because of the two substantial surgeries prior to his 18th birthday, but also because he now had a permanent leg alignment issue?

I said pick Durant. I then said "trade Oden" the day it was announced he was having surgery. I then repeated it every time his name came up for the next couple of years - trade him while he still has value.

So I was right on that one. And on Josh Boone, but that's just the sun shining on a sorry dog's ass now and again, because I truly suck at auguring how guys will pan out in the NBA.

So my truncated list of guys who I didn't predict well:

Badder than I thought:
Chris Smith, KEA, Stan, the beast from Arizona who we couldn't stop that one year, and then the coach inexplicably stopped going to him, Royce White (thought he'd be able to get over his issues and be awesome - loved his game), Pearl, and, last, but not least - Donyell Marshall. I was sure Donyell was going to go pro and end up being the Vanguard of Uconn royalty. I read some crap a few years later where he was quoted as saying he was "waiting his turn" to play, or some bunk. Very disappointing result for him.

Gooder than I thought:
Blake Griffin (yeah, I know, WTF was I thinking), Chris Paul, Curry (well beyond what I imagined), and one of my favorites - Uncle Cliffy, particularly given he was unheralded, was not, it seemed, into health and conditioning, but managed to have a very respectable NBA career.

I sarcastically apologize if you were "disconcerted" but I really couldn't give a hootenanny less, JO. You seem like the hindsight 20/20 guy who makes real bold claims after he sees things in the rear view mirror. Congrats on your masterful counsel.

And for the record, I didn't say anything to the fact that GO could still be better, or is better, or will be better than KD. I stated, which is blatantly true, that it is unfair to compare careers due to the fact that Oden has hardly played. No one, not even your pompous tarot card reading a.s.s really knows that if they both played completely healthy who would have been the more productive and/or integral player on their respective teams.

But I know, I know you being the all-knowing prognosticator of all that is basketball saw the micro-fracture coming and then the subsequent foot injury, chipped knee cap and other major knee injury all because he had a wrist injury that he played through in college. So in summation, don't bother replying to my posts with condescending remarks which state why you are so ruffled by my apparent obliviousness.

Aint it so easy to say "I said pick KD #1"..... Let me try it in a different context. Well I said pick MJ #1 and to pick LBJ #1.......wow that was difficult... .

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Lots of people thought he could or would be. Just Google Bill Simmons on it, who is often really wrong, but was totally right about Durant. Here's just one for you: http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

Yet another reason I can't stand Simmons is that I think he really believes he "discovered" Kevin Durant.

Conventional wisdom in the NBA - which has its faults, obviously, and looks outdated today - prized the potential franchise center. Oden was that. There were red flags, but there was also the potential that he'd be a dominant big man for the next decade. In my uneducated opinion Durant was destined to be a star and anyone who saw him at Texas could see it, but the gulf between them only seems so wide with 6 or whatever years of hindsight.

 

[Strummer]

But I know, I know you being the all-knowing prognosticator of all that is basketball saw the micro-fracture coming and then the subsequent foot injury, chipped knee cap and other major knee injury all because he had a wrist injury that he played through in college.

Tut Tut. The wrist injury was the 2nd warning. The first was major hip surgery that left him with a limp and two different length legs. Don't leave out the important parts!

 

[joober jones]

The thing with Villanueva is that he isn't as naturally gifted as most players in terms of being able to stay in shape. He could compensate by putting in more work than the average NBA guy but if he does just what's normal, he's going to get out of shape.

 

[huskyharry]

I didn't think Jake V. would stick in the league but he made a nice career for himself by setting good screens, staying in front of his man, boxing out, being a decent passer and fouling when necessary.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Rick Mahorn, Marcus Camby and Mike Adams

 

[intlzncster]

Thought Derrick Coleman would be a lot better than he was. Stacey Augmon too.

Didn't think Travis Knight would last as long as he did. 7 years. I would have guessed 2-3 max.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Yet another reason I can't stand Simmons is that I think he really believes he "discovered" Kevin Durant.

Conventional wisdom in the NBA - which has its faults, obviously, and looks outdated today - prized the potential franchise center. Oden was that. There were red flags, but there was also the potential that he'd be a dominant big man for the next decade. In my uneducated opinion Durant was destined to be a star and anyone who saw him at Texas could see it, but the gulf between them only seems so wide with 6 or whatever years of hindsight.

My problem with picking Oden #1 was his history of injuries and the legs. Big men take longer to heal and are more prone to repeat injuries. And they have less margin for error for playing effectively if they aren't 100% healthy. They can't really compensate if they're slow, can't move and can't jump.

 

[aceboon]

as I watch this Heat/Blazers game, another name to add is Wes Matthews. he played well at Marq, but out of that Dominic James/Jerel McNeal/Matthews trio, it seemed that he was the one who was talked about the least. I thought at best he would just be a role player off the bench if he did stick in the league, but currently he's one of the better two way SGs in the league.