Greg Oden should be taken before Kevin Durant. And as much as injury has not allowed for fair comparison up to this point.
The fact that you used the expression, "to this point," is somewhat disconcerting. I'm not sure if you got the memo, but the comparison was made, writ in stone, and filed on a shelf at the basketball hall of fame about 3 years ago. It reads something like this: "KD - a unique player who combined height, length, shooting prowess, ball handling, and agility to become a phenom who will be remembered as one of the most talented players ever to step on the floor, and GO - Bust (why waste words)."
So there is no "to this point." There is only "done."
Oden was a walking time bomb. The Blazers were incredibly stupid for getting suckered in, and, of course, particularly so given their personal experience with Bowie. The fact is, there were already two very loud, very clear warning signals. The Blazers were so enamored with "potential," however, they ignored those signals. This is particularly egregious given that Durant was there for the taking. If, for example, the other top pick was substantially below Durant, then taking Oden would not have been such a bad call. But Durant was as close to a sure-fire top scorer as you are ever going to see going into the NBA. Durant shot 40% from 3, 81% from the line, and 26/11/2/2 otherwise. As a freshman. Good god those are gaudy numbers.
So what about Oden? Guy had 2 significant injuries prior to being drafted. The 2nd, on his wrist, benched him for 1/2 his only NCAA season. Bad enough. But worse - much worse - the guy had surgery in 6th grade on his hip, which altered his leg length, and he walked with an obvious limp (not from pain, but from misalignment). What? Did nobody think that this guy might be injury prone? Not only because of the two substantial surgeries prior to his 18th birthday, but also because he now had a permanent leg alignment issue?
I said pick Durant. I then said "trade Oden" the day it was announced he was having surgery. I then repeated it every time his name came up for the next couple of years - trade him while he still has value.
So I was right on that one. And on Josh Boone, but that's just the sun shining on a sorry dog's ass now and again, because I truly suck at auguring how guys will pan out in the NBA.
So my truncated list of guys who I didn't predict well:
Badder than I thought:
Chris Smith, KEA, Stan, the beast from Arizona who we couldn't stop that one year, and then the coach inexplicably stopped going to him, Royce White (thought he'd be able to get over his issues and be awesome - loved his game), Pearl, and, last, but not least - Donyell Marshall. I was sure Donyell was going to go pro and end up being the Vanguard of Uconn royalty. I read some crap a few years later where he was quoted as saying he was "waiting his turn" to play, or some bunk. Very disappointing result for him.
Gooder than I thought:
Blake Griffin (yeah, I know, WTF was I thinking), Chris Paul, Curry (well beyond what I imagined), and one of my favorites - Uncle Cliffy, particularly given he was unheralded, was not, it seemed, into health and conditioning, but managed to have a very respectable NBA career.
