Pessimism grows in college football over season starting on time (update: it’s crumbling): | Page 13 | The Boneyard

Pessimism grows in college football over season starting on time (update: it’s crumbling):

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My father who is ND grad and gets tickets every year through the alumni lottery process got this email today from Notre Dame. It’s cute that think they are actually playing college football this Fall let alone playing with fans in the stadium.

>>Thank you for your patience as we navigate these uncertain times. Over the past few months, we have worked diligently on a seating plan that would incorporate proper physical distancing measures to ensure Notre Dame Stadium is as safe as possible this Fall. We are in the final stages of that planning process, which will greatly reduce our capacity.

>> Unfortunately, given the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming season and our commitment to maintaining physical distancing in all of our venues, we will be unable to offer single-game tickets or parking to 2020 home games through the lottery.

>> As it relates to away games, we are likely to receive greatly reduced allotments. These tickets may not be available for purchase. If tickets are available for any away games, we will communicate those purchasing instructions at a later time.
 
Skiblets said:
All this energy being devoted to a lost cause this Fall. I'm not letting my daughter go back on campus this Fall....she'll be all remote. There have to be other parents of this mindset, parents of football players I mean...
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I might have made that decision if there was nothing at stake for my son. But my choice was to send him or delay a year. Can't get a masters in athletic training without being around for clinicals/practicals. And then there is XC/Track - he has one year of grad eligibility - there may be no season - but I couldn't deny him his chance to run at the D1 level.
 
J187Money said:
I might have made that decision if there was nothing at stake for my son. But my choice was to send him or delay a year. Can't get a masters in athletic training without being around for clinicals/practicals. And then there is XC/Track - he has one year of grad eligibility - there may be no season - but I couldn't deny him his chance to run at the D1 level.
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Makes sense. Mine is an undergrad with all classroom courses this fall. No labs etc. plus she attends in NYC.
 
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Well somehow we are still on the path to at least starting the season which is rather unbelievable. Question du jour, will they permit fall practice to begin? It seems to be an issue that has to be addressed in the next two weeks at some capacity.
 
What a joke these testing protocols are. The P5 leagues are dropping non league opponent they are afraid won’t meet these? LOL. As I expected this is PR not protection. Oh and based on these schools in Florida South Carolina, Texas California Arizona shouldn’t even start a season. Leave it to the NCAA to come up with pseudo science.
 
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Once a week testing for 85+ people, in states that are being ravaged by COVID and people are waiting 2-3 weeks to hear their results back? Don’t get me wrong I want football to happen but this seems like an egregious waste of resources.
 
The FSU team is back on the field this week...let's see how this works out..

"The Florida State football team returned to the practice fields earlier this week for team conditioning as the Seminoles work toward getting back in shape for the 2020 football season."
 
huskymedic said:
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God I hate that graph. New cases per million residents makes no sense. New cases per number of people tested is the true graph we should be looking at. Testing has doubled in the last four months so of course new cases per million residents would have to go up.
 
Okay this puts us back on track to shut the whole thing down....Maybe in the end it will be just the SEC, B12 and B10 playing.
 
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It's crazy that northeast conferences, where CV is under better control, are cancelling athletics and yet the south and south west, where CV is exploding, have yet to announce.
 
On the news tonight there is a company in Finland that has developed a breathalyzer to detect covid-19. This really would be a gamechanger for restarting local K-12 schools, college, businesses. No waiting for testing results. We will see if it pans out.
 
jdb50 said:
On the news tonight there is a company in Finland that has developed a breathalyzer to detect covid-19. This really would be a gamechanger for restarting local K-12 schools, college, businesses. No waiting for testing results. We will see if it pans out.
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SEC buying 14 now
 
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Skiblets said:
God I hate that graph. New cases per million residents makes no sense. New cases per number of people tested is the true graph we should be looking at. Testing has doubled in the last four months so of course new cases per million residents would have to go up.
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It is good science.

Just was on a business call earlier this week where they were giving an update. They use infections per million people. That is a standard metric across the world. It helps even things out to testing when different amount of tests are being done, with different population centers. Raw numbers don’t cut it. They haven’t tested a million people in these states. They weight it to take into account increases testing. So if I am testing 5000 times a day, then 10000, you could literally have more cases but your rate goes down.

That’s why the we have done more tests/we have more infections thing is a dumb attack line.

California has more people than Rhode Island. How do you determine the seriousness of the infection and the penetration?

allows you to measure state to state and country to country.

The ncaa got this analysis right, Using The right metric too.

Btw, Europe has determined safe to open as 25 infections per one million. Only state in country that meets that threshold is Vermont.
 
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JohnFSilver said:
It is good science.

Just was on a business call earlier this week where they were giving an update. They use infections per million people. That is a standard metric across the world. It helps even things out to testing when different amount of tests are being done, with different population centers. Raw numbers don’t cut it. They haven’t tested a million people in these states. They weight it to take into account increases testing. So if I am testing 5000 times a day, then 10000, you could literally have more cases but your rate goes down.

That’s why the we have done more tests/we have more infections thing is a dumb attack line.

California has more people than Rhode Island. How do you determine the seriousness of the infection and the penetration?

allows you to measure state to state and country to country.

The ncaa got this analysis right, Using The right metric too.

Btw, Europe has determined safe to open as 25 infections per one million. Only state in country that meets that threshold is Vermont.
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John - it's not good science at all and don't appreciate your calling my metric dumb as it is the most accepted metric out there since it accounts for test volumes. And the ratio I quote is not raw number - read it again - positives tests divided by total tests.....numerator and denominator.

The metric you quote(infections per million people) is a non-starter - with more tests comes more infections. It's the wrong narrative. You're an old sports writer, I'm in healthcare and working on policy and mitigation efforts around the country with physicians and public health leaders. I think I'll go with my original premise.

Lastly - how do we tell if California is worse off than Rhode Island? We use a number of indicators - positive tests per total tests, hospitalization rates, ICU rates, % of admissions needing ventilators, length of stay of those admitted, length of stay for those with ICU stays with or without vents, average age of those hospitalized, beds available, meds available, staff available, PPE available and lastly mortality rates as a lagging indicator.

My whole point is the NCAA is using one flawed metric to make decisions as it does not adjust for volume. It's a whole lot more complicated than that.
 
Both metrics are important. Deaths per million, Cases per million, and percent positive are all needed to figure this out. The top states for deaths per million are still mostly located in the Northeast.
 
Stinger92860 said:
Both metrics are important. Deaths per million, Cases per million, and percent positive are all needed to figure this out. The top states for deaths per million are still mostly located in the Northeast.
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exactly.

Percent positive very important. What I was calling dumb was people taking raw numbers only. Percent positive is important, and per million important. I like per million to compare across the world. This take into account volume and increased testing.

Pretty standard way to compare areas with population differences.
 
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kemba said:
Its not really relevant because
-The situation in CT is currently much better than most of the country. This isn't really about the UConn AD its about all of college football unless we want to just play CCSU every week
-Comparing college football with huge rosters, daily practices, lifting sessions, meetings, travel, etc. to beer league softball isn't smart
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Here's my idea - #Governor'sCup #UConn #CCSU

Men's Soccer, Women's Soccer, and Volleyball: 2-game series (at Storrs and at New Britain)
Football: one game at E. Hartford
 
Percent positive has been found to provide the best leading indicator for hospitalizations per unit time. Time delay constant of 1-2 weeks.

Although it might be called a hot take or a profound statement of the obvious, hospitalizations per unit time are the best leading indicator of deaths per unit time. Time delay constant of 1-4 weeks.

Like all such correlations there are secondary influences such as which demographic cohort is primarily responsible for generating the spread and these factors influence the time constants as well.
 
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