What are you “not buying”? The math is the math. Do the pairwise predictor. They’ve got to be over .500 and not crash out against Alaska and Vermont. That is the bare minimum and will be sufficient.
While Pairwise is better than Bracketology, it's not a lock. Losses to BU and Maine are very possible. We won't get much from beating Vermont, NE, Alaska. Ties, OT losses, losses to any of these teams, or crashing out the tournament will put other HE teams above us in the rankings very quickly.
As someone said, you don't want to be #14. HE is so deep, it could produce a bid thief. Win 3 of these next 4 home games and we can start talking about the NCAA.
Truthfully, I think we'll need to make the quarters or semis of the HET to feel good about getting a bid. Or we can win the thing and maybe sneak into the top 4 pending other results.