Pairwise

[mac2351]

Currently there are 3 locks (a team that can lose all their remaining games and still make the field):

BC
Michigan State
Minnesota

 

[huskymedic]

 

[SubbaBub]

What are you “not buying”? The math is the math. Do the pairwise predictor. They’ve got to be over .500 and not crash out against Alaska and Vermont. That is the bare minimum and will be sufficient.

While Pairwise is better than Bracketology, it's not a lock. Losses to BU and Maine are very possible. We won't get much from beating Vermont, NE, Alaska. Ties, OT losses, losses to any of these teams, or crashing out the tournament will put other HE teams above us in the rankings very quickly.

As someone said, you don't want to be #14. HE is so deep, it could produce a bid thief. Win 3 of these next 4 home games and we can start talking about the NCAA.

Truthfully, I think we'll need to make the quarters or semis of the HET to feel good about getting a bid. Or we can win the thing and maybe sneak into the top 4 pending other results.

 

[Vowelguy]

While Pairwise is better than Bracketology, it's not a lock.

Ah perhaps you think Pairwise posted above is the predicted Pairwise? it's not. It's the current Pairwise. So if the season ended today, this is absolutely what the bracket would look like (other than possible minor shifting).

 

[dvegas]

Pairwise is literally updated as soon as games ends. It is the system for the non-automatic bids. Seedings are supposed to go as per Pairwise, the "committee" only makes tweeks so conference foes don't meet in the first round, to some extent to make sure top seeds don't have geographic disadvantages, or an entire pod has undesirable teams in terms of geography and/or fan support.

If you are in the top 14 (or less as per businesslawyers comment re: bid stealers/teams under .500), you are in. No committee to bend you (aka us/UConn) over for a spot you've earned.

 

[Patman]

What are you “not buying”? The math is the math. Do the pairwise predictor. They’ve got to be over .500 and not crash out against Alaska and Vermont. That is the bare minimum and will be sufficient.

(For the sake of this zls knows I know my snarf on this stuff so this isn't targeted at him.)

short of doing what CHN's doing, and I don't agree with their method because they aren't using ties and I don't know if they are doing conference tie-breakers I am probably the person who knows this as much as anybody in the nation. Could there be somebody else who has upschooled themselves on this subject, yes. I haven't met them yet and would love to talk.

let us assume that strength of schedule and second order SoS isn't going change much. if anything it may be in UConn's favor. 0.25 fraction owed to winning percentage... so you're only going to move as that moves. RPI is the main factor in pairwise it takes a lot to win a lost RPI... common opponents, h2h have to be at your back AND THEN you have to win enough to defeat the RPI is a ranking tiebreaker. The RPI is a tiebreaker two times over... so effectively this is why the current pairwise is just straight RPI. Now I'm not going to get into home wins and road wins because it makes life messy. I want a rough figure.

UConn is at 0.5723 in the moment, they have 13th place ASU is at 0.5463. UConn is 15-10-3, they have at most 7 games left. They lose all 7 their RPI is approximately 0.5428. They tie one theyre at 0.5464. So UConn COULD go 0-6-1 and be around 13th EXCEPT they would have a losing record at that point which eliminates them. So, as far as the metrics go, as long as UConn doesn't crap the bed they are in the tournament. If they only go 2-5 they'll be at 0.5571 which is slightly below UML and above Michigan.

Could other teams do well from behind, sure... but they'll need a lot of good to go with your lot of bad. I expect a UConn who goes 1-6 down the stretch to be in the NCAAs and it might be close but it might not be.

----

The math is the math, the pairwise at the end of the season will mark your qualifiers and your seeds. The rest is annoyingly complicated because the formulae isn't clean. There's a reason I haven't written my own simulator. To do it right is far more complicated than I want to engage in. Writing the statistical model is easy, simulating the games is easy if I know what the games are. League playoff formats, tiebreakers, and computing the RPI formula without error is a pain in the ass. Ive tried to replicate this version of the RPI before and I failed. I won't try again without help.

Maybe one of these days I'll ping Wodon but I think he's happy just using KRACH (Bradley-Terry). I'm more a fan of the Poisson regression form. I'm an adequate computer programmer. I wish I was better.

----

I'd also want far more than 20k simulations and projections on conference playoff opponents. If this were college basketball there'd already be 10 guys with the programming skills to get this done.

 

[Patman]

Ah perhaps you think Pairwise posted above is the predicted Pairwise? it's not. It's the current Pairwise. So if the season ended today, this is absolutely what the bracket would look like (other than possible minor shifting).

yes, the only things that will shift are where teams will be sent to regionals... Usually there are rules to avoid intra-conference matchups in the first round but with HEA placing 6(!!!) for the first time since the old WCHA days that isn't happening. You can move teams within the seed bands and sometimes have done so with controversy (any time the national number one doesn't get the national 16 for example)

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Viet Vet]

Pairwise #10 now. Bubble time is awaiting.

 

[Patman]

Pairwise #10 now. Bubble time is awaiting.

No. You'd literally have to lose all remaining games.

 

[The Viking]

Barrinng a uconn vs seton hall type of collapse we are in. In fact with denvers loss we are now 9

 

[businesslawyer]

Pairwise #10 now. Bubble time is awaiting.

Can I ask a serious question? Are you trolling, or just seriously unable or unwilling to comprehend how selection for the hockey tournament is different than the selection criteria for hoops or football (or even baseball) in that it is entirely based on one set of published computer rankings?

Because it’s getting annoying either way.

 

[Vowelguy]

Manc: 1 BC /// 8 Prov /// 10 Denv /// 27 HCross
Tole: 2 MichSt /// 6 OhioSt /// 9 UConn /// 17 MinnSt
Farg: 3 Minn /// 6 BU /// 12 Mich /// 13 UMass
Alle: 4 Maine /// 5 WMU /// 11 Lowell /// 14 Quinn

Having to face OhioSt in Toledo is probably worst draw possible

 

[UC15]

Can I ask a serious question? Are you trolling, or just seriously unable or unwilling to comprehend how selection for the hockey tournament is different than the selection criteria for hoops or football (or even baseball) in that it is entirely based on one set of published computer rankings?

Because it’s getting annoying either way.

Glass half empty guy I think. Or he doesn’t understand what bubble means. Pairwise Probability Matrix

 

[Patman]

Can I ask a serious question? Are you trolling, or just seriously unable or unwilling to comprehend how selection for the hockey tournament is different than the selection criteria for hoops or football (or even baseball) in that it is entirely based on one set of published computer rankings?

Because it’s getting annoying either way.

I almost said something similar but decided against it because I'm getting too nasty on these boards.

There's a reason why you can put probability statements to these things. 99% is probably right and if its only 95% that isn't a bubble issue. If this were college basketball they dont usually assume a team would tank and would call them "in".

 

[huskymedic]

DI Men's Ice Hockey Rankings - PairWise | NCAA.com

Get updated NCAA Men's Ice Hockey DI rankings from every source, including coaches and national polls.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Vowelguy]

Kalamazoo is closer to Allentown than Fargo so I’m not sure there’s a compelling reason to flip WMU and UConn.

I think you’d probably see Prov/OhioSt swapped plus Lowell/Mich and Quinn/UMass
So Fargo : MN - CT - MI - MA

 

[Patman]

Kalamazoo is closer to Allentown than Fargo so I’m not sure there’s a compelling reason to flip WMU and UConn.

I think you’d probably see Prov/OhioSt swapped plus Lowell/Mich and Quinn/UMass
So Fargo : MN - CT - MI - MA

I mean at that point a plane is a plane.

Frankly with how much things jump anything is mostly speculative.

(Lowell in allentown would make me real happy, that's 3 hours from here and I'd like to check out Bonn Place brewing)

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Selfishly wouldn’t mind the Huskies coming to Allentown.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[SubbaBub]

I couldn't imagine a worse bracket for UConn. Two perennial champions and the consistent thorn in our side.

With all of the HE teams that appear to be locks and the two on the bubble the HET is going to scramble these rankings if the lower seeds advance.