Paige as NPOY

[oldude]

I'll make sure to set the record straight when I feel people are confused by your post.

I would expect nothing less from a knowledgeable BY poster.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

 

[jabstep]

and Dana Evans to me is the closest with the same eye test and her clutch gene.

Yup, she carries the Ville. Great decisions, clutch, and fearless as well. As of today, those two have my vote for 1 and 2.

 

[CocoHusky]

This is huge!

 

[CL82]

 

[chrissaran]

If Paige continues to play as she has, and there's no reason to think she won't, then she deserves consideration as NPOY. A freshman hasn't won before, but there's nothing that says a freshman can't win.

 

[DefenseBB]

Wait, what’s with this? I thought this Schick was @meyers7 territory? Does he know you usurped him?

 

[The CDR-Ret]

How about Cal Ripken Jr.'s iron man record? I'm feeling pretty safe saying nobody is gonna touch that one. Not in this current era of resting players frequently.

Changing sports for a moment, I am pretty sure that Tom Brady's seven Super Bowl Championships in ten attempts as starting Quarterback is only breakable by Tom Brady....

 

[nwhoopfan]

Changing sports for a moment, I am pretty sure that Tom Brady's seven Super Bowl Championships in ten attempts as starting Quarterback is only breakable by Tom Brady....

I'll give you that one. I don't like Brady, but nobody else has come close to doing what he's done.

 

[CL82]

Wait, what’s with this? I thought this Schick was @meyers7 territory? Does he know you usurped him?

It really doesn’t matter who does it, as long as it gets done. So, you’re welcome.

( For what it’s worth I think it may have been Scoe over on the men’s board, originally originally.)

 

[bballnut90]

Asked the same question talking with Frodo. Is it premature to start asking if Paige is the 2nd coming of Diana?

Different players but similar upside. Taurasi showed better leadership qualities at UCONN than Paige has thus far, which makes sense considering Paige is halfway through her freshman year while Taurasi played 4 full years and led a group of primarily underclassmen her junior season. Taurasi deferred to teammates more but usually took the clutch shots late. What makes DT so unique though is her sheer confidence. I've never seen anyone more confident than her on a basketball court which is probably her most distinguishable trait.

Paige is currently carrying a far bigger load than DT in terms of being responsible for more shot taking and playmaking. DT never took more than about 13 shots per game where Paige is taking almost 15 per game right now and is averaging closer to 20 shots per game in her latest stretch. What's remarkable is how efficient Paige has been--she's a lot more efficient than DT in terms of percentages. Taurasi for her career shot 47% from the field and 39% from 3. Paige is at 56% and 55% and her shots just always look like they're going in, it's a surprise when they don't often times. Paige also appears to be a much better defender than DT was. She clearly doesn't lack for confidence and has a great "edge" about her but I don't think she'll ever fully match DT's outward confidence. Skill wise and upside I think she's compares favorably to Diana.

As far as her pro career, I think a huge piece of Paige's success will be dictated by who she plays with. In the women's game all of the best players who've won multiple titles (ex. Taurasi, Lauren Jackson, Cooper, Moore, Leslie, etc.) have had a plethora of talent around them. Each of those players were great on their own, but the titles and team success often came once the other pieces were in place. From the UCONN games I've seen this year, I think Paige has the potential to join that echelon of players but the pieces need to be lined up for it to happen.

 

[jdubct]

If Paige continues to play as she has, and there's no reason to think she won't, then she deserves consideration as NPOY. A freshman hasn't won before, but there's nothing that says a freshman can't win.

When does voting take place for NPOY? Depending on the voting date, if Paige plays as she has been and Uconn wins the National Championship, she could well win the award.

 

[Gurleyman]

A fun discussion with a few days off.

Things could change, but I think the race right now is Bueckers, Evans, Naz Hillmon, and Charli Collier. I think other candidates are hurt by being on teams with too much balance or are putting up good numbers, but the team success isn’t good enough. I could be wrong, though. Rhyne Howard in particular I feel like has dropped out of contention recently, but she could play her way back in.

Analyzing it, really the only negative on Paige is you can argue that schedule strength doesn’t test her often enough, since we lost the games with Baylor and Louisville (a little bit of a counter: DePaul beat KY and lost to A&M by two, so those two blowout wins are against a team that fared well against the top half of the vaunted SEC). And the awards usually favor older players. You could nit pick and say she’s not a lockdown defender, but she has as many steals as turnovers so she’s had an impact on that end as well, and since she plays 40 minutes, you don’t want her chasing the other teams best scorers. There’s really not much on her actual resume that you can point to as a flaw - she can’t help that she’s a freshman and she can’t help that some marquee games got canceled.

Evans is up there with very similar PPG and APG averages to Paige and Ville is 19-1, plus she’s had clutch moments, so she clearly has a strong case. Her negatives (when I say “negatives” we are picking nits, since we are talking about the sliver of difference between POY candidates) would be that she isn‘t necessary inefficient but Bueckers has her beat comfortably (Bueckers has shot over 50 percent for the last seven games, Evans has shot under 50 percent for the last nine - and her only game over 50 in the ACC was against BC). As a team, they got beat pretty bad in their one chance for a signature win against NC State (Evans had 29, but her team wilted in the 4th), and they’ve underperformed a bit with some close games against unranked teams, but they’ve won them. A strong finish could put her over the top though, and we don’t have the DePaul counterpoint to the schedule when comparing her to Evans, since Louisville crushed them.

Collier is considered the No. 1 pick in the draft and has big numbers (22 ppg, 13 rpg). Her negatives would be that she’s probably the worst passer in college basketball - 9 assists total on the year - you could put a tackling dummy out there and the ball would have probably bounced off it for assists more than nine times. And she has mostly been terrible in Texas’ 5 losses (games with 2-12 and 5-20 shooting as a 6-5 forward). She still has two games left with Baylor to make a big statement, though. If she dominates those games, I could see her getting some support with “the best pro prospect = the best player” argument.

Hillmon is interesting. She matches Paige in efficiency (effective FG percentage and doesn’t turn it over much), but does if from five feet and in. Outstanding offensive rebounder where she gets a lot of her points. Unlike Collier, who has been awful in Texas losses, Hillmon dropped 50 in the only game Michigan lost. There’s not much to nitpick with her - she doesn’t have a statistical impact defensively (less than 10 steals and blocks), but Michigan as a team is giving up less than 60 ppg, so she’s anchoring a great defensive team and probably doing a lot of things that don’t show up in stats. If they win the Big 10, no complaints from me if she wins.

There’s still time for someone else to get in this. Howard had a strong three-game stretch for Kentucky (including 32 in a loss to SC) and was rated the best player in the country a month ago, but she has been slumping bad lately. She’s only shooting 33 percent in her last five and her overall splits (43-34-78) are now pretty meh. Another couple good games and maybe she can be a factor again. South Carolina and Stanford seem to have too much balance. Paige is also in a bit of a no win situation with this closing stretch - if she puts up big numbers, they’ll be pooh-poohed because of the competition. If she lays low, has a quiet 12 point, 5 assist game or two and her numbers drop, then that could be used against her.

Right now, though? Best player on No. 1 team, 57-55-81 shooting splits, 91 assists to 41 turnovers, an epic signature performance in a win, a great effort in the only loss, a dagger in the only bad game she’s had. I really think you can’t not vote for Paige, unless you have anti-freshman (or anti-UConn) bias.

 

[Waquoit]

The Athletic's head WBB writer, who has no love for UConn, didn't even have Paige in her Top 9 a week a go.

 

[Gurleyman]

The Athletic's head WBB writer, who has no love for UConn, and didn't even have Paige in her Top 9 a week a go.

Before SC, I can maybe forgive it. Although I still would have had her on the list then and had a qualifier that she needs to prove something against SC, win or lose, to show that she can be that effective against top teams.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

A fun discussion with a few days off.

Things could change, but I think the race right now is Bueckers, Evans, Naz Hillmon, and Charli Collier. I think other candidates are hurt by being on teams with too much balance or are putting up good numbers, but the team success isn’t good enough. I could be wrong, though. Rhyne Howard in particular I feel like has dropped out of contention recently, but she could play her way back in.

Analyzing it, really the only negative on Paige is you can argue that schedule strength doesn’t test her often enough, since we lost the games with Baylor and Louisville (a little bit of a counter: DePaul beat KY and lost to A&M by two, so those two blowout wins are against a team that fared well against the top half of the vaunted SEC). And the awards usually favor older players. You could nit pick and say she’s not a lockdown defender, but she has as many steals as turnovers so she’s had an impact on that end as well, and since she plays 40 minutes, you don’t want her chasing the other teams best scorers. There’s really not much on her actual resume that you can point to as a flaw - she can’t help that she’s a freshman and she can’t help that some marquee games got canceled.

Evans is up there with very similar PPG and APG averages to Paige and Ville is 19-1, plus she’s had clutch moments, so she clearly has a strong case. Her negatives (when I say “negatives” we are picking nits, since we are talking about the sliver of difference between POY candidates) would be that she isn‘t necessary inefficient but Bueckers has her beat comfortably (Bueckers has shot over 50 percent for the last seven games, Evans has shot under 50 percent for the last nine - and her only game over 50 in the ACC was against BC). As a team, they got beat pretty bad in their one chance for a signature win against NC State (Evans had 29, but her team wilted in the 4th), and they’ve underperformed a bit with some close games against unranked teams, but they’ve won them. A strong finish could put her over the top though, and we don’t have the DePaul counterpoint to the schedule when comparing her to Evans, since Louisville crushed them.

Collier is considered the No. 1 pick in the draft and has big numbers (22 ppg, 13 rpg). Her negatives would be that she’s probably the worst passer in college basketball - 9 assists total on the year - you could put a tackling dummy out there and the ball would have probably bounced off it for assists more than nine times. And she has mostly been terrible in Texas’ 5 losses (games with 2-12 and 5-20 shooting as a 6-5 forward). She still has two games left with Baylor to make a big statement, though. If she dominates those games, I could see her getting some support with “the best pro prospect = the best player” argument.

Hillmon is interesting. She matches Paige in efficiency (effective FG percentage and doesn’t turn it over much), but does if from five feet and in. Outstanding offensive rebounder where she gets a lot of her points. Unlike Collier, who has been awful in Texas losses, Hillmon dropped 50 in the only game Michigan lost. There’s not much to nitpick with her - she doesn’t have a statistical impact defensively (less than 10 steals and blocks), but Michigan as a team is giving up less than 60 ppg, so she’s anchoring a great defensive team and probably doing a lot of things that don’t show up in stats. If they win the Big 10, no complaints from me if she wins.

There’s still time for someone else to get in this. Howard had a strong three-game stretch for Kentucky (including 32 in a loss to SC) and was rated the best player in the country a month ago, but she has been slumping bad lately. She’s only shooting 33 percent in her last five and her overall splits (43-34-78) are now pretty meh. Another couple good games and maybe she can be a factor again. South Carolina and Stanford seem to have too much balance. Paige is also in a bit of a no win situation with this closing stretch - if she puts up big numbers, they’ll be pooh-poohed because of the competition. If she lays low, has a quiet 12 point, 5 assist game or two and her numbers drop, then that could be used against her.

Right now, though? Best player on No. 1 team, 57-55-81 shooting splits, 91 assists to 41 turnovers, an epic signature performance in a win, a great effort in the only loss, a dagger in the only bad game she’s had. I really think you can’t not vote for Paige, unless you have anti-freshman (or anti-UConn) bias.

Dana Evans will be considered too though Paige has been better. Clark and Haley Jones should be on the list as well.

 

[Gurleyman]

Dana Evans will be considered too though Paige has been better. Clark and Haley Jones should be on the list as well.

I don’t think Jones is in the discussion any more, but I could be wrong. She had one really spectacular weekend in early December, but hasn’t had 20 points in a game since (no more than 18 points in last 15, and a few in single digits). She’s at 14 ppg for the year (about 12 ppg since that hot start). Doesn’t feel like NPOY material ... unless Stanford maybe was undefeated and the consensus No. 1 and then you could play the intangibles card, but they probably lost that card when Colorado beat them. Great player, though - hurt a bit by a balanced offense and a system that spreads the ball around.

Clark probably isn’t a NPOY candidate unless Iowa makes a late run out of the middle of the pack in the B1G. Say, a 5-1 close in their last six to get into third or fourth and a big win over first-place Michigan and she can play her way into the discussion. Right now, you’d have to think Hillmon is the clear POY in the Big 10, which makes NPOY for Clark a non-starter. But a win over Michigan could change that dynamic.

I’m trying to see a case for some other nominees on the Wooden Watch (NC State, Baylor, UCLA) - but can’t really find any reason to put them above the top 4 (top 5 with Howard). McDonald of Arizona is out. She had another clunker and is down to like 37 percent shooting. Rutgers kid is below 40 too. Boston and Cooke probably got Paiged out of the discussion (and are hurt by balance). Dungee obviously has a huge statement game that would be a great feather in her cap - but Ark is not doing well enough overall. Maybe if they closed strong, she could become a factor.

The book on Paige is probably closed, while others have big games left so there’s time for someone else to win it away from her. Cool that she’s in the mix though. I never expected to be talking about her as a possible POY in “real” terms and not “potential” terms this year.

 

[diggerfoot]

I don’t think Jones is in the discussion any more, but I could be wrong. She had one really spectacular weekend in early December, but hasn’t had 20 points in a game since (no more than 18 points in last 15, and a few in single digits). She’s at 14 ppg for the year (about 12 ppg since that hot start). Doesn’t feel like NPOY material ... unless Stanford maybe was undefeated and the consensus No. 1 and then you could play the intangibles card, but they probably lost that card when Colorado beat them. Great player, though - hurt a bit by a balanced offense and a system that spreads the ball around.

Clark probably isn’t a NPOY candidate unless Iowa makes a late run out of the middle of the pack in the B1G. Say, a 5-1 close in their last six to get into third or fourth and a big win over first-place Michigan and she can play her way into the discussion. Right now, you’d have to think Hillmon is the clear POY in the Big 10, which makes NPOY for Clark a non-starter. But a win over Michigan could change that dynamic.

I’m trying to see a case for some other nominees on the Wooden Watch (NC State, Baylor, UCLA) - but can’t really find any reason to put them above the top 4 (top 5 with Howard). McDonald of Arizona is out. She had another clunker and is down to like 37 percent shooting. Rutgers kid is below 40 too. Boston and Cooke probably got Paiged out of the discussion (and are hurt by balance). Dungee obviously has a huge statement game that would be a great feather in her cap - but Ark is not doing well enough overall. Maybe if they closed strong, she could become a factor.

The book on Paige is probably closed, while others have big games left so there’s time for someone else to win it away from her. Cool that she’s in the mix though. I never expected to be talking about her as a possible POY in “real” terms and not “potential” terms this year.

Thank you for your rundown on this. I had not thought POY possible for Bueckers, but she is one of two players that emphatically check the main boxes: MOP, MVP and team success. If she was any class but freshman I would think she would be favored.

On an unrelated note, weren’t you a prolific poster with an analytical bent on the men’s board in the nineties (back then I was Mapper). Also, did you have another handle in the nineties before the current one? Good to have you aboard the women’s board.

 

[dtbtbtb]

Dana Evans will be the POY as she had played like one and is a Senior. Paige will finish 2nd (like Maya did her Freshmen year).

 

[CocoHusky]

Dana Evans will be the POY as she had played like one and is a Senior. Paige will finish 2nd (like Maya did her Freshmen year).

Maybe but Louisville has just been put on COVID pause, no big games left but missing games could hurt Dana down the stretch. I still think the voters stick with Howard as POY and if they want to do something other that would be Hillman or Paige.

 

[Gurleyman]

Dana Evans will be the POY as she had played like one and is a Senior. Paige will finish 2nd (like Maya did her Freshmen year).

That would normally be the case, but that SC game could make this an exception to the rule. Evans has some big buckets, but what Paige did in Gampel on Monday happens once a decade or two in college. I’d argue with a voter that Bueckers might not get another chance with Fudd and others coming in - she won’t have to carry this much of the load in the future. But there is a certain “lifetime achievement” award factor that always comes into play, and if Evans wins it won’t be the crime of the century by any means - she’s had a great year too.

 

[Gurleyman]

Thank you for your rundown on this. I had not thought POY possible for Bueckers, but she is one of two players that emphatically check the main boxes: MOP, MVP and team success. If she was any class but freshman I would think she would be favored.

On an unrelated note, weren’t you a prolific poster with an analytical bent on the men’s board in the nineties (back then I was Mapper). Also, did you have another handle in the nineties before the current one? Good to have you aboard the women’s board.

Yeah - I was once someone else, but my old handle was geographic (ny) and when I moved it didn’t make any sense any more.

 

[Gurleyman]

Maybe but Louisville has just been put on COVID pause, no big games left but missing games could hurt Dana down the stretch. I still think the voters stick with Howard as POY and if they want to do something other that would be Hillman or Paige.

You could be right, but Howard has really opened the door open for others. She has shot around 33 percent (31-89) in the six games since she had a big game in a loss to SC. She shot 7-26 in a loss to unranked Ole Miss, and 3-16 in a loss to Tennessee. She’s actually 7-29 in two games against Tennessee, undoing the one knock you could maybe put on Paige if you compared them for her 3-14. Ky also lost to DePaul - who UConn smoked twice (they did beat Arkansas, but at home, and we lost on the road). Her overall splits (43-34-77) are rather pedestrian, but she rebounds well and doesn’t turn it over much, so there are positives in her aggregate stats too, so voters could still go her way. I also know I’m underrating the “don’t give it to a freshman, they have their own awards” sentiment.

 

[KY Card Fan]

As a Louisville fan I'm certainly hoping that Evans wins it, but I won't complain if Bueckers gets it. I will complain if Howard gets it. She is ultra-talented but Kentucky has underachieved and she has not come up big at the end of games like Evans and Bueckers have.

 

[hoopsfan22]

What are the rules for POY? As in what qualifications do you have to meet to win it?

 

[CocoHusky]

You could be right, but Howard has really opened the door open for others. She has shot around 33 percent (31-89) in the six games since she had a big game in a loss to SC. She shot 7-26 in a loss to unranked Ole Miss, and 3-16 in a loss to Tennessee. She’s actually 7-29 in two games against Tennessee, undoing the one knock you could maybe put on Paige if you compared them for her 3-14. Ky also lost to DePaul - who UConn smoked twice (they did beat Arkansas, but at home, and we lost on the road). Her overall splits (43-34-77) are rather pedestrian, but she rebounds well and doesn’t turn it over much, so there are positives in her aggregate stats too, so voters could still go her way. I also know I’m underrating the “don’t give it to a freshman, they have their own awards” sentiment.

I agree with everything you are saying except these voters don't think that deeply when it comes to casting a vote for these award. An example of "too deep" is your contenting that since UCONN beat DePaul handily and KY lost to DePaul should favor Paige. It's an individual award (POY) not the most valuable player on the best team.

 

[Gurleyman]

I agree with everything you are saying except these voters don't think that deeply when it comes to casting a vote for these award. An example of "too deep" is your contenting that since UCONN beat DePaul handily and KY lost to DePaul should favor Paige. It's an individual award (POY) not the most valuable player on the best team.

That’s definitely true. I sort of always have the “schedule strength” factor working against Paige in the back of my mind, so I’m sort of thinking a couple steps ahead in the argument. Paige’s stats are better and her team is No. 1 ... Yeah but Howard plays in a tougher conference ... Well, Paige did this against SC and Ark, and they both struggled against Tennessee ... Yeah, but Kentucky has to play tough games all the time in the SEC and UConn has no competition in the Big East ... Well, DePaul beat Kentucky, so.

It’s really only that deep a dive if you can’t make up your mind between the last two. If you’re looking at four or five candidates, you are just comparing various stats and signature games and less comparing how they did against specific common opponents.

 

[CocoHusky]

That’s definitely true. I sort of always have the “schedule strength” factor working against Paige in the back of my mind, so I’m sort of thinking a couple steps ahead in the argument. Paige’s stats are better and her team is No. 1 ... Yeah but Howard plays in a tougher conference ... Well, Paige did this against SC and Ark, and they both struggled against Tennessee ... Yeah, but Kentucky has to play tough games all the time in the SEC and UConn has no competition in the Big East ... Well, DePaul beat Kentucky, so.

It’s really only that deep a dive if you can’t make up your mind between the last two. If you’re looking at four or five candidates, you are just comparing various stats and signature games and less comparing how they did against specific common opponents.

It shouldn't be that deep of a dive it just that many of the voters are quite frankly lazy and don't want to do more than superficial home work to look at a few numbers. To their credit one exception might be the AP voters from a couple of years ago who voted Megan Gustafson as POY over Sabrina.

 

[Gurleyman]

As a Louisville fan I'm certainly hoping that Evans wins it, but I won't complain if Bueckers gets it. I will complain if Howard gets it. She is ultra-talented but Kentucky has underachieved and she has not come up big at the end of games like Evans and Bueckers have.

Yeah - the more I crunch Evans numbers it’s really hard to pick many nits. She’s been clutch, and also really consistent. A couple games she was maybe a little quiet in blowout wins, but that’s irrelevant. I couldn’t argue if she won. If it turns out to be Paige, it’ll be that last seven minutes against SC that put her over the top.

 

[CocoHusky]

What are the rules for POY? As in what qualifications do you have to meet to win it

There are 4 major NPOY awards, Wade (WBCA), Naismith, Honda, and AP.
Freshman such as Paige are not eligible for the Wade.
The AP voters for POY are the same 30 people that select the weekly AP top 25 teams.
USA Today and WBCA (Wade) are aligned and that is "selective" coaches voting. The Naismith and Honda are done by committee at the end of the regular season. The rules and the criteria for selection are variable AKA whatever the voters want it to be. This is why things will be interesting this season. A Freshman has never won one of the awards and only a few very special sophomores have won.