Assuming they would miss on Army/BYU/Boise, and the NCAA won't let them have an conference championship game without division/round robin, why wouldn't the AAC want to keep us on a reduced payout?
Without Army/BYU/Boise, there is nobody who brings immediate value and probably nobody with a higher ceiling than UConn, though I guess that's up for some debate. With the Big East deal, plus whatever SNY will give us for T3 games, we would not need much from football to get to the proposed $7m payout from the new AAC TV deal, say a million for simplicity's sake. If we took only a $1m payout, and the remaining $6m was split up across the other 11 teams, would that not be a better solution for the AAC? Essentially UConn pays a ~$500k a year premium to every school in the conference, but we still come out even on it. Rather than giving up a full piece of the pie for a chance at a better program down the line, give up ~1/7 of the piece for a program that has reached the heights of the sport and has history in the conference.