OT: Stock trading | Page 156 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

My best recent purchase was CIVI. My best purchase of the last year, and the one stock that has held up for me through this downturn is SWCH. Switch is a colocation provider, with some incredibly sophisticated data centers. Equinix is the leader in that space, but Switch is possibly more cutting edge. Equinix is organized as a REIT.

Discussed this with others, and it's a longer term view, but if you've watched old TV or Mrs. Maisel, you recall switchboards in the basements of business. Then it became copper wire, now wireless. Our data shows that by 2030 most enterprises want to be out of the business of on premise IT. They want it to be like phone service is now. Some compliance related issues make that impossible for some data/industries. But there is going to be growth in these massive colo facilities. Secondarily, Edge computing will require small distributed data centers spread widely. We are seeing that as well.

So, while things are pretty awful at the moment, with no clear relief in sight, the long term fundamentals for exciting change and transformation remain strong.
 
i appreciate everyones perspective. But if you do not have 10% of your portfolio in crypto you are doing yourself a disservice. Lots of blockchain companies that will do well in the long term. Don’t have to buy $$$ coins.
 
Inflationary recessions are difficult to navigate. I’ve lost a bunch this week. Sigh.
 
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husky429 said:
You haven't lost s*** until you sell.
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People keep saying this, but it would take a really strong rest of 2022 to get back where we were on January 1. So I've lost the ability to convert investments to cash at the same value they had before. I do think that's something, even if I eventually get that back. I don't have it now. So if I was looking at a house on the Cape (and we are), that's now less viable than it was.

Nice day today. I wonder if this just a dead cat bounce. Hope it's a sign of resistance instead.
 
HuskyHawk said:
People keep saying this, but it would take a really strong rest of 2022 to get back where we were on January 1. So I've lost the ability to convert investments to cash at the same value they had before. I do think that's something, even if I eventually get that back. I don't have it now. So if I was looking at a house on the Cape (and we are), that's now less viable than it was.
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The point is the same: you don't realize gains or losses until you sell.
 
8893 said:
The point is the same: you don't realize gains or losses until you sell.
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Yes, I'm aware. But the ability to realize a gain or convert to $X cash at any given time is itself something of value. That ability has been lost or at least reduced.
 
It's times like these that people make millions. So many good companies are "on sale" right now. It might be worse before it gets better but I'm buying low here because some of these companies may not ever see these price levels again. Some look at these times as "oh crap I just lost 20%", I look at them as "where can I buy something that's been unfairly beaten down to make even more $$ in the next 5 years"
 
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Hurleyman216 said:
It's times like these that people make millions. So many good companies are "on sale" right now. It might be worse before it gets better but I'm buying low here because some of these companies may not ever see these price levels again. Some look at these times as "oh crap I just lost 20%", I look at them as "where can I buy something that's been unfairly beaten down to make even more $$ in the next 5 years"
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Warren B is buying.
 
Hurleyman216 said:
It's times like these that people make millions. So many good companies are "on sale" right now. It might be worse before it gets better but I'm buying low here because some of these companies may not ever see these price levels again. Some look at these times as "oh crap I just lost 20%", I look at them as "where can I buy something that's been unfairly beaten down to make even more $$ in the next 5 years"
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I think we’ll see some short-term relief soon, maybe a green 2-3 days in a row. But after that SPY should test low $380’s and if it doesn’t hold it’ll possibly dip $10-20 lower.

+ beta stocks will trend with it.
 
HuskyHawk said:
People keep saying this, but it would take a really strong rest of 2022 to get back where we were on January 1. So I've lost the ability to convert investments to cash at the same value they had before. I do think that's something, even if I eventually get that back. I don't have it now. So if I was looking at a house on the Cape (and we are), that's now less viable than it was.

Nice day today. I wonder if this just a dead cat bounce. Hope it's a sign of resistance instead.
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If you were planning to buy a house that money should have never been in equities anyways.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Like I said the other day. I think there's a risk of panic. Of absolute catastrophe. There are a few things that could mitigate the issues, and policymakers insist on doing the opposite or ignoring reality. So at the moment, we are seeing money flee a market that is already down plenty, perhaps in fear of the doomsday scenario. As soon as there are indications of stability, that the worst isn't coming (depression era event) it will flood back in.
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Some of the people I listen to say the s & p is going to 3,600. Possibly 3,100 before the bleeding slows down
 
UConnSwag11 said:
Some of the people I listen to say the s & p is going to 3,600. Possibly 3,100 before the bleeding slows down
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That’s just rough technical analysis - so it’s very possible. But it could deviate from that. I have SPY going to the $355-380 range before any big moves happen (to upside or downside).
 
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husky429 said:
If you were planning to buy a house that money should have never been in equities anyways.
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Confused Bbc GIF by The QI Elves
 
HuskyHawk said:
Confused Bbc GIF by The QI Elves
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It didn't go over my head. Your argument was just a silly one.

Do you technically have less money? Duh.

The point is that if you are using equities as longer-term investments like they should be and not to buy a house in a year, then you don't need it, and its value is all but guaranteed to increase in the long run. An even mildly intelligent investor knows a 10 year downturn is ALWAYS a risk and plans accordingly. Not even a risk... it's basically a guarantee. It's a mindset thing, not a literal thing.
 
husky429 said:
If you were planning to buy a house that money should have never been in equities anyways.
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uconndogs said:
Exactly right!
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Yes of course. But it doesn't change the fact that your ability to liquidate and convert to cash has changed. You have lost that ability, however theoretical. When people say you lost nothing it simply isn't true. Your asset has been devalued.

Futures look like a reversal of yesterday.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Yes of course. But it doesn't change the fact that your ability to liquidate and convert to cash has changed. You have lost that ability, however theoretical. When people say you lost nothing it simply isn't true. Your asset has been devalued.

Futures look like a reversal of yesterday.
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Really talking about two different things here. Yes, there is a loss of value whether realized or not, and there are certainly consequences to that.

As for the house analogy, I think the point was simply that if you were looking to purchase a home in the short-term, the liquidity you needed to do that shouldn't be in the equity markets.
 
uconndogs said:
Really talking about two different things here. Yes, there is a loss of value whether realized or not, and there are certainly consequences to that.

As for the house analogy, I think the point was simply that if you were looking to purchase a home in the short-term, the liquidity you needed to do that shouldn't be in the equity markets.
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Yes, I know that. But some things aren't planned. So if something unexpected happened and you needed it, the money isn't there to liquidate, or at least less of it is. Bezos, Zuckerberg and Musk can shrug off losing billions in value, but ordinary people can still be impacted.

The current retirement advise has changed for example. Retirees shouldn't just be in fixed income, they lose out on too much potential appreciation over 20-30 years of retirement. These declines can impact them.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
Yes, I know that. But some things aren't planned. So if something unexpected happened and you needed it, the money isn't there to liquidate, or at least less of it is. Bezos, Zuckerberg and Musk can shrug off losing billions in value, but ordinary people can still be impacted.

The current retirement advise has changed for example. Retirees shouldn't just be in fixed income, they lose out on too much potential appreciation over 20-30 years of retirement. These declines can impact them.
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Yeah, I think most of us feel the same--at least I do--despite the conventional wisdom that the value of the equities only really matters when you sell.

I remember trying to wait out the end-of-year plunge in 2018 because I needed to take my daughter's Spring tuition out of the 529. It got worse and worse every day I waited, and I finally had to cash out on the day it hit bottom. The next day it rallied back of course, so I lost like $5k just because I needed to use the money.

Based on that experience, when I got a nice check in the fall of 2019, I kept it in a money market fund instead of investing it, because of the conventional wisdom about the markets tanking the next year based on the election result. Fortunately and unfortunately, it's still there. And now I'm thinking it may be time to start putting it back into the 529 for our youngest, who will be going to college in 2024.
 
8893 said:
Yeah, I think most of us feel the same--at least I do--despite the conventional wisdom that the value of the equities only really matters when you sell.

I remember trying to wait out the end-of-year plunge in 2018 because I needed to take my daughter's Spring tuition out of the 529. It got worse and worse every day I waited, and I finally had to cash out on the day it hit bottom. The next day it rallied back of course, so I lost like $5k just because I needed to use the money.

Based on that experience, when I got a nice check in the fall of 2019, I kept it in a money market fund instead of investing it, because of the conventional wisdom about the markets tanking the next year based on the election result. Fortunately and unfortunately, it's still there. And now I'm thinking it may be time to start putting it back into the 529 for our youngest, who will be going to college in 2024.
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That's the point I was trying to make. The interest rate situation of the last decade+ essentially meant that equities were the only place you could park your funds, since there was no viable money market fund returning more than 1%. So you can leave them there or perhaps in what seems "safer" stocks/funds like SPY because you don't want to miss, for example, the increases from 2019 to late 2021. Back when you could get a 5% CD that was viable. It hasn't been for a long time. I recall my dad taking out one for me at around 16.25% back in the Carter administration.

As for the house, I'm waiting and watching the wildly inflated Cape Cod real estate market. If we get a crash, I'll probably go in. I regret not pulling that trigger several times in the past. Right now prices are dropping, but not as fast as my stock holdings.
 
HuskyHawk said:
As for the house, I'm waiting and watching the wildly inflated Cape Cod real estate market. If we get a crash, I'll probably go in. I regret not pulling that trigger several times in the past. Right now prices are dropping, but not as fast as my stock holdings.
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Yeah, I had been eyeing the same type of thing in the Rhode Island neighborhood where we vacation in the summers. Saw the perfect deal on the day we arrived in the summer of 2019 and the next day it was sold. Been kicking myself ever since, especially when we pass it and see what they've done with it.

Meanwhile, the two houses we've rented for multiple years have both come off the rental market because the owners (with whom we became friendly from years of renting) each decided to move in and retire there. In other words, all these years we've been helping them do what we should have been doing ourselves. Instead, we'll be paying a little more to rent a different place this year.

That said, if we had bought years ago and rented it out, I'm not sure if we would have been able to do all the other trips we've done in the meantime.
 
8893 said:
That said, if we had bought years ago and rented it out, I'm not sure if we would have been able to do all the other trips we've done in the meantime.
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Back when we had the assets to get a second home, my recurring thought was always similar to considering a timeshare - do I want to be locked into this? There are so many places in the world to see and so little time.
 
storrsroars said:
Back when we had the assets to get a second home, my recurring thought was always similar to considering a timeshare - do I want to be locked into this? There are so many places in the world to see and so little time.
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On the other hand, vacation properties within driving distances of major metro areas, at least in the Northeast and CA, are doing tremendous. Lake Tahoe, Lake WInnipesaukee had a huge rise due to the pandemic and there's no inventory on the market so prices are up, way up!
 
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