Geno got a 33% increase. That Manuel is some shrewd negotiator.
There's more to it than I'm allowed to say but I will say that your scenario is wrong.
With all the respect you are deservedly due Nan, I'm slightly disappointed in "Allowed to say". I understand you don't want to expose sources or put out unverified info but that creates more uncertainty out here, especially with the folks who aren't quite sold on Manuel.
IMO, Geno is getting paid what he's worth, and if he gets it done in New Orleans this weekend that actually strengthens our CR case (yes I know it's football driven but one of the unplayed cards is the negative effect landing outside a power conference will have on the nation's premier women's hoop programs).
On the other hand if Geno got so PO'd at Manuel/Herbst he wanted to leave, he could certainly cash in at Ohio State or a school of a similar stature with a nine-figure athletic budget. But after the cash he wouldn't have the many other things that make his life easier here (compliant media for starters, plus less endorsement opportunities, and the recruiting infrastructure; i.e. would be much tougher to recruit elsewhere where program wasn't as established as this one is).