OK - Tournament Upsets, Cinderella Runs, Final Four. Put it Out There Now.

[auror]

I think you can be a high profile cinderella. A cinderella is just a low seeded underdog, especially one with less resources than bigger schools. Doesn't have to be a team that came out of nowhere.

 

[ConnZag3]

I have Santa Clara and South Florida to the Sweet 16, Troy over Nebraska, Texas over BYU, and VCU over UNC Rd 1.

I won't pick them to win, but I think Iowa could give Florida a heck of a game in Rd 2 due to their slow pace. Also wouldn't be surprised if Penn gives Illinois a game in Rd 1 if Power is full strength since Fran obviously knows Underwood well.

I would love to see UNI beat St. John's to set up another UNI vs. Kansas game after the 2010 Farokmanesh shot, but I just don't see UNI being able to get shots against SJU unless the refs are willing to foul out half the Johnnies lineup.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

My niece goes to Miami-Ohio and my brother (her father- who also went to UConn and is a Husky fan too) have had me up to date on Red Hawks ball all year. My question is this;

Do they fit the traditional Cinderella mold?

I say no. If they make the sweet sixteen that will be the narrative but imo Cinderella is a story not a tag. They have been a high profile team all year. The most high profile mid major coming into the tourney (besides GU)
I dont think you can be called a Cinderella if you were ranked nationally.
Also, they made the tourney after the losing first round of your conference tourney. A good story?yes. Cinderella? I dont think so. Step above your traditional Cinderella.

They were 7pt dogs to SMU. Definitely a Cinderella

 

[Deepster]

I don’t have a lot because I’m really leaning into chalk this year. But I have:

BYU to the sweet 16. Yes I know half their roster is injured. In AJ we trust. And in Gonzaga/Purdue we don’t trust

High Point/Hofstra to the R32

I think there'll be a decent number of first rd upsets, but not many advancing much further. I have chalk in the Elite 8 and beyond.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I think you can be a high profile cinderella. A cinderella is just a low seeded underdog, especially one with less resources than bigger schools. Doesn't have to be a team that came out of nowhere.

The resource piece qualifies them for sure. But the low seed is tricky. Texas, NC State recently wouldn't be called Cinderella despite their lower seed and success. I think a lot of it has to do with how saturated we are with p4 brand names. It's a good topic for debate regardless.

 

[Deepster]

My niece goes to Miami-Ohio and my brother (her father- who also went to UConn and is a Husky fan too) have had me up to date on Red Hawks ball all year. My question is this;

Do they fit the traditional Cinderella mold?

I say no. If they make the sweet sixteen that will be the narrative but imo Cinderella is a story not a tag. They have been a high profile team all year. The most high profile mid major coming into the tourney (besides GU)
I dont think you can be called a Cinderella if you were ranked nationally.
Also, they made the tourney after the losing first round of your conference tourney. A good story?yes. Cinderella? I dont think so. Step above your traditional Cinderella.

I don't view them as a textbook Cinderella. Basically, they broke the mold of an at large team and I can't ever recall of a team in their situation. Now, if they were to make a run from here and get to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, then yes they start to fall into that bucket more. But so far? I think they're far better than some of the conference tourney winners in there.

 

[Jaydumo20]

They were 7pt dogs to SMU. Definitely a Cinderella

I see your point but that was also a sucker spread. As we saw, Miami was clearly the better team. I don't think they caught lightning in a bottle per se

 

[Jaydumo20]

I don't view them as a textbook Cinderella. Basically, they broke the mold of an at large team and I can't ever recall of a team in their situation. Now, if they were to make a run from here and get to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, then yes they start to fall into that bucket more. But so far? I think they're far better than some of the conference tourney winners in there.

I share this view. Well put.
If they make it that far the Cinderella tag will be put on them. And I wouldnt squabble with it too much

 

[navery12]

The resource piece qualifies them for sure. But the low seed is tricky. Texas, NC State recently wouldn't be called Cinderella despite their lower seed and success. I think a lot of it has to do with how saturated we are with p4 brand names. It's a good topic for debate regardless.

There were a lot of people that were calling NC State's run a Cinderella to be fair

 

[Jaydumo20]

There were a lot of people that were calling NC State's run a Cinderella to be fair

I'm sure. It's a story not a metric. I am a Cindarella purist i guess, if that makes sense. But its loose and clearly there's no right answer.

 

[UConNick]

Every year I compile data in a few key categories to try and see the upset possibilities: KenPom offense, defense, tempo, and luck; three-point shooting and three-point D; offensive rebounding % and opponent offensive rebounding %; turnover % and forced turnover %; and effective FG%.

The rationale’s pretty clear: teams that play slower, play good defense, control the glass, and don’t turn it over create less chances for the higher-ranked team’s superior skill and athletes to win out. And three-point shooting is obviously huge, too.

It’s of course not foolproof (in 2024 I was convinced Morehead had it against Illinois), but my biggest claim to fame is sniping Abilene Christian over Texas several years ago. This year, I’m seeing a lot of potential in Cal Baptist over KU. They play great defense, a slow-ish tempo, are elite rebounding, and while they turn the ball over a lot, KU is not good at forcing turnovers, so it hopefully won’t be a huge issue. They’re also 19th in KenPom luck. Not like that matters much, but I always think back to the 2018 tournament. That year, the number 1 team in KenPom luck was… UMBC.

Hofstra over Alabama also has something but it’s not quite as pronounced as Cal Baptist. None of the 14-16 seeds jumped out at me. Furman in particular was not good at any of the key stats I track. Still, crazy things happen in March, and we can’t be looking past them.

 

[MJKI]

UVA loses to Wright State. Most overrated team in the country. Played nobody, beat nobody

 

[storrsroars]

No Cinderellas, only 3 mids none into 2nd weekend.

Round 1
9>8: TCU, St. Louis, Iowa
10>7: Santa Clara
11>6: USF

Round 2
SJU > Kansas
Vandy > Nebraska
Wisc > Arkansas
TxTech > Bama

Round 3
Illni > Houston
UVA > Iowa St
Zags > Purdue

Round 4
UConn > Duke
Illini > Florida

NC
UConn > Michigan

 

[navery12]

This was my post from Sunday, sticking with these. Did not pick High Point or Hawaii. I think they're both very good but got matched up with hot 4/5 seeds which is unfortunate.

I'm also on Akron right now, Troy is the team I think has the best chance at winning 2 games of the 12/13's. Santa Clara/VCU/USF I like as 10/11's which feel less like upsets and more evenly matched teams

Have to dive a little deeper on how the matchups look for High Point and Hawaii. I liked them pre bracket but Arkansas and Wisconsin both have very good lead guards and are trending up to a 4/5 unlike the usual 4/5's fading that get upset

 

[UConNick]

This was my post from Sunday, sticking with these. Did not pick High Point or Hawaii. I think they're both very good but got matched up with hot 4/5 seeds which is unfortunate.

I'm also on Akron right now, Troy is the team I think has the best chance at winning 2 games of the 12/13's. Santa Clara/VCU/USF I like as 10/11's which feel less like upsets and more evenly matched teams

Have to dive a little deeper on how the matchups look for High Point and Hawaii. I liked them pre bracket but Arkansas and Wisconsin both have very good lead guards and are trending up to a 4/5 unlike the usual 4/5's fading that get upset

I felt the same way about both. If Hawaii was matched up with literally any other 4 I would’ve been all over them

 

[CTBasketball]

I have Hofstra winning, Miami OH beating Tennessee, USF winning. Akron too.

The one I won’t pick but I feel may happen is Hawaii over Arkansas.

 

[Chonky]

This is the year Purdue figures it out—-mark my words.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Re-read my posts in that thread. I mentioned those 3 teams as having performed a lot better against weaker teams than stronger teams. There were other teams in the SEC that did the opposite. There was nothing systemic or intentional about it.

This year’s SEC is the #5 conference of all time. Of all time. That means that either A) every win by a non-SEC team over an SEC team is a MASSIVE upset, or B) efficiency ratings have serious limitations.

#5 of all time.

 

[Kolumbo]

Let's go with Nova to the regional final. The only program of the 5 from the great Big East Conference of 20 years ago not in the East Region. Such a shame, for all those who've pulled a David Caruso

 

[auror]

This year’s SEC is the #5 conference of all time. Of all time. That means that either A) every win by a non-SEC team over an SEC team is a MASSIVE upset, or B) efficiency ratings have serious limitations.

#5 of all time.

If you measure it by strength of team needed to .500 in the conference it's that high, because the strength of the conference is depth and having no bad teams. It's not if you measure in other ways, like Evan Miya's method, which looks at more of the strength of their tournament level teams, in which the SEC is 3rd in this season.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

This isn't a prediction of an upset in any game or some cinderella run so to speak, but I do believe it qualifies in the spirit of what this thread is looking for, and it absolutely pertains to men's college basketball.

As unlikely as it may appear today, as difficult of a task that they need to complete, I am predicting that at some point in the reasonably near future Syracuse will hire a head coach.

Yes, odds are long agasinst them (really, who would want to live there, why would anyone want to be surrounded by that much orange) but I do believe they will find a way to pull it off. You heard it here first.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Welp, Troy was wrong.

 

[Deepster]

Yarder	Prediction	Result
jleves	USF over Louisville
jleves	Ndakota St over Mich St
jleves	McNeese over Vandy
jleves	Troy over Nebraska
jleves	VCU over UNC
jleves	McNeese - Sweet 16
jleves	USF - Sweet 16
jleves	BYU - Final 4
JaketheDog	Ndakota St - Sweet 16
JaketheDog	Santa Clara - Sweet 16
JaketheDog	Akron over Texas Tech
JaketheDog	Akron - Sweet 16
JaketheDog	Hofstra over Alabama
HuskyHawk	Akron over Texas Tech
HuskyHawk	Hofstra over Alabama
HuskyHawk	USF over Louisville
HuskyHawk	VCU over UNC
HuskyHawk	High Pt over Wisconsin
superjohn	Duke - 2nd rd loss
superjohn	USF - Sweet 16
Mr French	Akron over Texas Tech
Mr French	USF over Louisville
uconngb	Akron over Texas Tech
uconngb	USF over Louisville
uconngb	Hofstra over Alabama
uconngb	Troy over Nebraska
uconngb	Texas over BYU
BlueWolf25	USF over Louisville
BlueWolf25	USF - Sweet 16
BlueWolf25	Houston - 2nd rd loss
BlueWolf25	McNeese over Vandy
BlueWolf25	Texas - Sweet 16
Deepster	USF over Louisville
Deepster	McNeese - Sweet 16
ColchVegas	VCU over UNC
ColchVegas	USF over Louisville
Travelman6	McNeese over Vandy
Travelman6	Hofstra over Alabama
Travelman6	Missouri - Sweet 16
Travelman6	UCF over UCLA
Hey Adrien!	Santa Clara - Sweet 16
Hey Adrien!	USF - Sweet 16
Hey Adrien!	Cal Baptist over Kansas
Hey Adrien!	Hawaii - Sweet 16
Tyler2Rings	Miami - Sweet 16
Tenspro2002	Troy over Nebraska
Reb1094	BYU - Sweet 16
Reb1094	High Pt over Wisconsin
Reb1094	Hofstra over Alabama
ConnZag	Santa Clara - Sweet 16
ConnZag	USF - Sweet 16
ConnZag	Troy over Nebraska
ConnZag	Texas over BYU
ConnZag	VCU over UNC
MJKI	Wright St over Virginia
navery12	Akron over Texas Tech
navery12	Troy - Sweet 16
navery12	Santa Clara over Kentucky
navery12	VCU over UNC
navery12	USF over Louisville
CTBasketball	Hofstra over Alabama
CTBasketball	Miami OH over Tennessee
CTBasketball	USF over Louisville
CTBasketball	Akron over Texas Tech
Kolumbo	Villanova - Elite Eight

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yarder	Prediction	Result
jleves	USF over Louisville
jleves	Ndakota St over Mich St
jleves	McNeese over Vandy
jleves	Troy over Nebraska
jleves	VCU over UNC
jleves	McNeese - Sweet 16
jleves	USF - Sweet 16
jleves	BYU - Final 4
JaketheDog	Ndakota St - Sweet 16
JaketheDog	Santa Clara - Sweet 16
JaketheDog	Akron over Texas Tech
JaketheDog	Akron - Sweet 16
JaketheDog	Hofstra over Alabama
HuskyHawk	Akron over Texas Tech
HuskyHawk	Hofstra over Alabama
HuskyHawk	USF over Louisville
HuskyHawk	VCU over UNC
HuskyHawk	High Pt over Wisconsin
superjohn	Duke - 2nd rd loss
superjohn	USF - Sweet 16
Mr French	Akron over Texas Tech
Mr French	USF over Louisville
uconngb	Akron over Texas Tech
uconngb	USF over Louisville
uconngb	Hofstra over Alabama
uconngb	Troy over Nebraska
uconngb	Texas over BYU
BlueWolf25	USF over Louisville
BlueWolf25	USF - Sweet 16
BlueWolf25	Houston - 2nd rd loss
BlueWolf25	McNeese over Vandy
BlueWolf25	Texas - Sweet 16
Deepster	USF over Louisville
Deepster	McNeese - Sweet 16
ColchVegas	VCU over UNC
ColchVegas	USF over Louisville
Travelman6	McNeese over Vandy
Travelman6	Hofstra over Alabama
Travelman6	Missouri - Sweet 16
Travelman6	UCF over UCLA
Hey Adrien!	Santa Clara - Sweet 16
Hey Adrien!	USF - Sweet 16
Hey Adrien!	Cal Baptist over Kansas
Hey Adrien!	Hawaii - Sweet 16
Tyler2Rings	Miami - Sweet 16
Tenspro2002	Troy over Nebraska
Reb1094	BYU - Sweet 16
Reb1094	High Pt over Wisconsin
Reb1094	Hofstra over Alabama
ConnZag	Santa Clara - Sweet 16
ConnZag	USF - Sweet 16
ConnZag	Troy over Nebraska
ConnZag	Texas over BYU
ConnZag	VCU over UNC
MJKI	Wright St over Virginia
navery12	Akron over Texas Tech
navery12	Troy - Sweet 16
navery12	Santa Clara over Kentucky
navery12	VCU over UNC
navery12	USF over Louisville
CTBasketball	Hofstra over Alabama
CTBasketball	Miami OH over Tennessee
CTBasketball	USF over Louisville
CTBasketball	Akron over Texas Tech
Kolumbo	Villanova - Elite Eight

Nicely done.

 

[Fishy]

My daughter has California Baptist in the elite eight.

I am very confident that she has not watched an entire college basketball game in her life.