Wow just seeing this....they're definitely out IMO. I haven't looked at how other bubble teams are doing, but this is by far the worst loss in Holly's career and arguably in Tennessee history. Vandy was 1-13 in conference play with a 195 RPI and a 6-21 record. Vandy had lost 33 out of 33 times in Knoxville with rosters that were #1 seeds, Final Four squads, etc and arguably their worst team in program history comes into Knoxville to pull off this feat. On the bright side for UT fans, a loss like this could easily push Fulmer over the edge to firing Holly. Tennessee losing to Bama 5 or 6 times in a row, finishing with a sub 500 SEC record, missing the NCAA tournament and losing to Vandy at home might finally be enough to can Holly. What an awful season for Tennessee.
Regarding seeding, Tennessee has probably the worst collection of losses by bubble teams at the moment and really no defining wins. If their RPI does drop to 64, they don't have a way to bring it back up unless they win at least 2 tournament games in the SEC tourney. If they lose to Ole Miss, I think they need to win the whole SEC tournament to get in.
Right now if Missouri holds on to beat Tennessee, Tennessee will likely play in the 8/9 game (unless Arkansas beats A&M this weekend) and need to beat Mississippi State to get into the tournament. In the 8/9 they'll likely face Auburn or LSU, and beating one of those teams likely doesn't help the cause that much IMO. Auburn is around 50 RPI, LSU is about 65.
Right now Tennessee has 0 wins against the top 25 RPI, and their wins vs 26-50 are against 2 against Auburn (47), Clemson, Missouri and Texas (26). Texas/Mizzou winning big games could push them into the top 25 RPI which helps Tennessee, and Auburn losing to LSU on Sunday could push them out of the top 50. The LVs will need a lot of help along the way to make the tournament.
I'm really hoping they miss it and Holly finally gets the ax. She has wasted so much talent in Knoxville and will continue to be a disappointing coach if she stays on. There is NO reason why this team shouldn't be a top 5-6 SEC team and top 15 team with the talent they have.