NOW is Tennessee OUT of the NCAA Tournament?! | Page 4 | The Boneyard

NOW is Tennessee OUT of the NCAA Tournament?!

DaddyChoc

Choc Full of UConn
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No, nothing recently, I’ve been checking.
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I was curious about what teams would be selected today for the NCAA tournament if the determination were made strictly by Massey ratings and conservative assumptions about winners of conference tournaments. Those conservative assumptions include: A ranked team will win each of the P5 conferences, the American, and the Big East. Rice will win ConUSA; Central Michigan will win the MAC, Drake will win the Missouri Valley Conference; South Dakota or South Dakota State will win the Summit; Gonzaga will win the West Coast.

I have the following conference winners and at-large teams selected, based on these assumptions:

SEC: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn

ACC: Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Syracuse, Florida State, North Carolina

Big 10: Maryland, Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota

Pac 12: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Utah, Cal, So. California

Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Texas, West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU

Big East: Marquette, DePaul, Butler

American: UCONN, UCF

The next 10 teams in order are:
Virginia Tech, Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Ohio, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia Tech, Villanova, and Georgia

If the above assumptions about conference tournament winners do not hold, the teams that would be the first to lose spots would be: Auburn, Minnesota, Michigan State, and UCF.

With their losses today, Butler and Utah may drop enough that they could be replaced with Virginia Tech and Clemson in this scheme.
 
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Creme at present has the SEC with 8 bids. What joke. I might suspect that it might be a ploy to give Tenn a better chance of getting on of the 8. Interesting that as the season progressed the SEC picked up two more bids. They seemed to get better playing themselves. Perhaps Creme figured that if so many teams were beating Tenn that rather Tenn being so bad the rest of the league must be good. In the past it was usually the leagues record against non league opponents that was used to rate the league. Not their record against themselves.

Not true.

In the first 4 versions he had 8 SEC teams mostly (1 had 7)
In the next 4 versions he had 7 SEC teams mostly (1 had 6)
In the last 2 versions he again had 8 SEC teams

So only 1 out of his 10 versions has had only 6 SEC teams.

2018-19 Bracketology SEC.png


Here is a link to the "2018-19 Creme Bracketology" data.

Now weather they actually deserve 8 teams is a different conversation.
 
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eebmg

Fair and Balanced
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According to Creme, the softness of the bubble means TN is not officially dead

Tennessee falls out of espnW's bracketology projection

"It's so soft, in fact, that Tennessee might not be done yet, despite the three-game skid, the 6-9 SEC record and a second loss to a team below 100 in the RPI. The Lady Vols have four top-50 RPI wins, which is more than Auburn (currently in), LSU (in), UCF (in), Kansas State (in), Butler (out), Utah (out), TCU (out) and West Virginia (out)."


And some of the mid-major races will continue to impact the bubble. Drake and Central Michigan already have put together NCAA tournament-worthy seasons. But through Thursday's games, Missouri State, not Drake, is the No. 1 seed in the Missouri Valley Conference, and Miami (Ohio), not Central Michigan, is the top seed in the MAC. Both of those conferences could end up as one-bid leagues should the Bulldogs and Chippewas win those conference tournaments -- which would potentially open up two at-large bids. If that were the case today, the Lady Vols would still be in the field.

While it looks grim and Tennessee hardly looks the part of an NCAA tournament team, the Lady Vols could still make the field and run that streak of NCAA tournament appearances to 38 with a little help and/or a couple of wins in the SEC tournament.
 
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I am not greedy. In this decade, whenever TN made the NCAA, I requested that Holly's contract should be extended by a year. That request still stands. However, if the Ladyvols make the WNIT, I will request to extend her contract by 6 months.
 

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