I was curious about what teams would be selected today for the NCAA tournament if the determination were made strictly by Massey ratings and conservative assumptions about winners of conference tournaments. Those conservative assumptions include: A ranked team will win each of the P5 conferences, the American, and the Big East. Rice will win ConUSA; Central Michigan will win the MAC, Drake will win the Missouri Valley Conference; South Dakota or South Dakota State will win the Summit; Gonzaga will win the West Coast.
I have the following conference winners and at-large teams selected, based on these assumptions:
SEC: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn
ACC: Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Syracuse, Florida State, North Carolina
Big 10: Maryland, Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota
Pac 12: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Utah, Cal, So. California
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Texas, West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU
Big East: Marquette, DePaul, Butler
American: UCONN, UCF
The next 10 teams in order are:
Virginia Tech, Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Ohio, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia Tech, Villanova, and Georgia
If the above assumptions about conference tournament winners do not hold, the teams that would be the first to lose spots would be: Auburn, Minnesota, Michigan State, and UCF.
With their losses today, Butler and Utah may drop enough that they could be replaced with Virginia Tech and Clemson in this scheme.