Notre Dame Loses - who is the #1 seed now? (Merged thread)

[nwhoopfan]

Synonym for "parity" is "equality." What produces "equality" is the really interesting issue. Does parity result from WCBB teams getting better or from UConn getting less better?

I think some of both. More good teams than there used to be, and UConn not at the dominant level they have been at in the past.

 

[Orangutan]

They had Koko Nelson as a solid sub who could spot Shepard or Westbeld for 10-15 mpg.

They badly miss Westbeld. She was a fantastic glue player for ND and brought different elements to the table that Turner doesnt--namely hitting from the high post and executing the high low. Obviously Turner is the stronger player at facevalue, but the spacing issue between Shepard and Turner is still apparent with just a month before the NCAAs start.

People kept saying "ND has everyone back" and I kept thinking "No, they have 4 out of 6 back".

Turns out, ND needs a little more of this:

It retrospect, the 2nd round game against Villanova (the one where Westbeld played the 2nd half only on bum ankle and ND went from a tie at halftime to a blowout) looks like it was an omen.

Also not to be discounted: The leadership qualities of Westbeld and Nelson (and for that matter M. Johnson and L. Thompson). Westbeld was tough and passionate but also unflappable whereas Nelson had that "team Mom" vibe. Johnson was basically acting as a grad assistant after her injury.

 

[oldude]

People kept saying "ND has everyone back" and I kept thinking "No, they have 4 out of 6 back".

Turns out, ND needs a little more of this:
View attachment 39375

It retrospect, the 2nd round game against Villanova (the one where Westbeld played the 2nd half only on bum ankle and ND went from a tie at halftime to a blowout) looks like it was an omen.

Also not to be discounted: The leadership qualities of Westbeld and Nelson (and for that matter M. Johnson and L. Thompson). Westbeld was tough and passionate but also unflappable whereas Nelson had that "team Mom" vibe. Johnson was basically acting as a grad assistant after her injury.

At the beginning of the season if you had a choice between a healthy Brianna Turner and Kat Westbeld, which player would you have chosen?

 

[Orangutan]

At the beginning of the season if you had a choice between a healthy Brianna Turner and Kat Westbeld, which player would you have chosen?

I think I would have taken Turner on the assumption that Shepard could successfully transition to the 4 spot. Unfortunately, that last part hasn't exactly happened.

 

[Vowelguy]

Defending one's title is hard.

That said, championship teams can lose regular season games because they know how to turn it on at crunch time. (Eg, 2-time defending champ UConn 2004 didn't even get a #1 seed. 2018 GS Warriors were 2 seed as well, etc etc)

 

[Charliebball]

Synonym for "parity" is "equality." What produces "equality" is the really interesting issue. Does parity result from WCBB teams getting better or from UConn getting less better? I believe that the Huskies have better players in total than any other team, including this year. But does that make them the best team? The answer is obvious; they're not the best team this season (and, predictably, not for next when player superiority will not be present). Their two losses were not flukes. On both occasions they were beaten. Why? Because they lacked team chemistry. In the ECU game, they rediscovered the missing ingredient: it doesn't matter if you have the best individuals, it only matters if you have the best team. Should the Huskies return to the form of their last game, no one will beat them. Will they? Stay tuned.

as I proposed earlier in this thread, UConn may have better players in terms of their rankings out of high school but only three out of the five are playing up to those rankings at the present time while a fourth is getting closer..................if they all figure it out by tournament time the sky's the limit..........

 

[willtalk]

Going by results and not by rep or preconceived evaluation, there are quite a lot of teams that given the right match ups and timing ( bit of good fortune as to when they catch a team ) are capable of not only making the final four, but winning it all. Any number of teams have as good a chance to make it as anyone else.

Being that no team has shown itself to be so solid that they would not have difficulties against a number of teams on any given day, when picking the one seeds it should go on result and merit and not on still hanging onto perceptions ( reputation ) that existed at the beginning of the season. At the beginning of the season we have no results to work with so reputation and preconceptions is all their is.

RPI and other analysis should only be a factor or starting point because non of them are detailed enough to give a true picture of what a teams won/loss record really shows. All it does is allow Creme ( and others ) to cherry pick to find justification for their presuppositions. It is a fact that it is harder to change a perspective than to initially create one. The early preseason perspectives are still hanging on strong despite information to the countrary.

In respect to the choice between Miss St and Uconn I would have to take the side of Miss St. Take away ND, which because of their recent defeats, is not the victory it once was. Uconn's best former victories were DePaul , which at the time was 16, but is now unrated and Cal which at the time was 14 and is also now unrated. Their two losses came two top five teams. They also had a number of close wins against some very weak teams. In the past the Uconn teams used to blow out every team that was not in the top ten and even then many were blowouts. I don't hold much to RPI rankings because it does not take into account margins of victory, so a team can rise their ranking just by playing and getting blown out by a top rated school.

Miss State, on the other hand, only has a loss to a top four school and actually still have victories over multiple rated teams, Kent. Marquette, etc. The tie breaker to me is the better record and their not being challenged at all by any non rated teams. This takes into account the flaws in the RPI rankings in which Uconn has the advantage.

I just do not like the assumption that a number on seeding is just between ND and Uconn. If it were between the two I would pick Uconn, but it is not. Miss St record is such that it deserves that spot at this time based on record. Both teams still have games left with SC. MS plays them twice and also has to face TA&M againd, not to mention the SEC tourn at the end of the season. Where as Uconn has a far easier road to travel with only SC being a major roadblock. Even if all things were equal MS schedule will test if they are rated too high while Uconns will not. Because MS will probable face 5 more chances to be knocked off, they should be given the benefit of any tie breaker at this time.

I realize this perspective will not go over too great on this board. I am not really a fan of Miss St and if I had a choice between Uconn and Miss St. I would want Uconn to win. But logic and reason impel me to stick up for Miss St in respect to who should be ahead for the number one seed at this time. I basically think Miss St is getting shafted based on preconceived bias.

 

[Charliebball]

Going by results and not by rep or preconceived evaluation, there are quite a lot of teams that given the right match ups and timing ( bit of good fortune as to when they catch a team ) are capable of not only making the final four, but winning it all. Any number of teams have as good a chance to make it as anyone else.

UConn
Notre Dame
Baylor
Miss State
Louisville
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford

am I missing any?

 

[triaddukefan]

I think that UCONN would have trouble with Miami also, both the personnel and the style of play. Miami would keep UCONN out of transition and Hof and Mompremier would be a formidable duo in the middle at 6'3" and 6'4". Notre Dame and Miami starters played each other about even, but Mason came off the bench with a great game. Evans did the same sort of thing against UCONN for Louisville.

Miami is interesting. Losses @ Iowa State and Purdue.... home vs CMU. Home loss to Clemson (without Monteprimer) and a close loss to FSU. Remaining games @ Louisville and @ NC State. They might play themselves into hosting. Not too many squads can handle their twin towers when they are playing well.

 

[Plebe]

Miami is interesting. Losses @ Iowa State and Purdue.... home vs CMU. Home loss to Clemson (without Monteprimer) and a close loss to FSU. Remaining games @ Louisville and @ NC State. They might play themselves into hosting. Not too many squads can handle their twin towers when they are playing well.

I think they're close to hosting at this point. Their pair of quality wins over Notre Dame and Marquette are as good as anyone else's two wins. I do feel like other teams will need to falter a bit to help their chances. Unless, of course, they can manage to shock Louisville.

 

[WNBA 09]

This is Creme's side by side analysis between UConn and Miss St. To be honest, I think Miss St should edge UConn by a hair (until we can show our stuff against SC) but ...


"Through Thursday's games, the Huskies get the nod as the fourth No. 1 seed by the narrowest of margins -- and there will be plenty of disagreement on social media. The NCAA selection committee might in fact place the Bulldogs ahead of the Huskies on Monday when it releases its first top-16 midseason reveal.

The Bulldogs have one fewer loss than UConn and, like the Huskies (whose losses were to Baylor and Louisville), their defeat was against a No. 1 seed (Oregon). Both have the same number of top-25 RPI wins (two) and top-50 wins (five). Both are unbeaten and in first place of their respective conferences (yes, Mississippi State's SEC lead is more impressive than UConn's in the American). The slight difference, and why the Huskies get the nod, comes down to schedule strength. UConn's is better in both nonconference strength and overall, and the difference is significant enough at this stage of the season to push the Huskies ahead of the Bulldogs."

With the amount of teams ranked in the SEC vs AAC that makes up for non-conf matchups with the 2. MSU lost one to a #1 UCONN lost 2 to 2 possible #1s. I slightly agree UCONN has the edge but NOT a drivers seat. More of a Uber ride to #1.

 

[triaddukefan]

I think they're close to hosting at this point. Their pair of quality wins over Notre Dame and Marquette are as good as anyone else's two wins. I do feel like other teams will need to falter a bit to help their chances. Unless, of course, they can manage to shock Louisville.

I'd forgotten that they beat Marquette.... i was just scrolling through the losses.... overlooked that win.

 

[LoTrader]

At this moment, UO & Louisville are playing the best basketball, with Miss. State right on their heels. Baylor, ND, UCONN are playing well, but right now, UO & Louisville seem unstoppable.

 

[mbr33ct]

At this moment, UO & Louisville are playing the best basketball, with Miss. State right on their heels. Baylor, ND, UCONN are playing well, but right now, UO & Louisville seem unstoppable.

Frankly IMO Baylor does not belong with ND and UConn, at this moment (in your post). I've read couple posts on this forum regarding Baylor not getting the love they deserve. Since the loss to Stanford all they have done is win and climbed up the ranks to #1 in both polls, they are beating the teams on their schedule.

Just curios as to why you feel they "are not playing well", is it based on final scores of their games? Baylor currently is #2 in RPI (WarrenNolan.com) and #6 in SOS...compared that with Louisville (#3 RPI and #7 SOS), Oregon (#5 RPI and #22 SOS) and I'll throw in Miss St (#7 RPI and #48 SOS)...or am I missing something?

 

[bbballfan23]

At this moment, UO & Louisville are playing the best basketball, with Miss. State right on their heels. Baylor, ND, UCONN are playing well, but right now, UO & Louisville seem unstoppable.

I don’t think anyone is really buying all-in on Oregon just yet. They are playing very well but I think the only teams that UConn won’t have an advantage on will be Ms. St & Baylor. Everyone else, especially Louisville is a great matchup for us.

 

[DefenseBB]

Spot on! Horrible half court team that often takes bad shots.

Umm, ND is the #3 scoring team in the country so to say their horrible in the half court is a radical assertion. Yes, by comparison to their transition game, their half court is not as efficient but to say it’s horrible is not true.

 

[bbballfan23]

Umm, ND is the #3 scoring team in the country so to say their horrible in the half court is a radical assertion. Yes, by comparison to their transition game, their half court is not as efficient but to say it’s horrible is not true.

Sorry, meant horrible compared to their transition game. Should have clarified.

 

[LoTrader]

Frankly IMO Baylor does not belong with ND and UConn, at this moment (in your post). I've read couple posts on this forum regarding Baylor not getting the love they deserve. Since the loss to Stanford all they have done is win and climbed up the ranks to #1 in both polls, they are beating the teams on their schedule.

Just curios as to why you feel they "are not playing well", is it based on final scores of their games? Baylor currently is #2 in RPI (WarrenNolan.com) and #6 in SOS...compared that with Louisville (#3 RPI and #7 SOS), Oregon (#5 RPI and #22 SOS) and I'll throw in Miss St (#7 RPI and #48 SOS)...or am I missing something?

I didn't mean to have anyone infer that Baylor isn't playing well. I watched Baylor game vs Texas, and, didn't see a dominating performance by Baylor vs a team in Texas that Baylor should have steamrolled, but still believe Baylor to be worthy of a national championship run. I just think at this moment in time, Oregon and Louisville are playing the best basketball.

 

[Florida Fan]

Always good to see ND go down. Looking at the box, it appears that they had their shooting woes that our women have been trying to deal with.

Right now, I'm not really concerned about tourney seed. Would really like to see more consistent play, that we saw last night. They looked like the players we know they are. Just continue to focus and play UConn BBall. The rest will come, regardless of seed.

Watched the game and Miami's bigs matched up well with ND's inside players. Shepheard played well, but Turner looked tentative and was favoring one leg. That being said, Miami was the better team this day. Maybrey and Arike missed some panic late bombs. And there was ND'S usual retaliatory pushing underneath after their shots were blocked.

 

[DefenseBB]

I didn't mean to have anyone infer that Baylor isn't playing well. I watched Baylor game vs Texas, and, didn't see a dominating performance by Baylor vs a team in Texas that Baylor should have steamrolled, but still believe Baylor to be worthy of a national championship run. I just think at this moment in time, Oregon and Louisville are playing the best basketball.

Well, on the surface, I sort of agree. However the game is an intense rivalry with an interesting dynamic between the coaches especially considering Karen assisted Kim with the game AT Texas so think of the Stanford AT Cal game last week and the what did Stanford do to Cal at home. I will bet Baylor blow some out Texas at home.
Kim’s NCAA underachievement in recent years is well known, but at the moment they have earned the overall #1 with Louisville and Oregon closely behind. Tomorrow’s Oregon vs. Stanford game will be a great barometer for both teams.

 

[jonson]

I don’t think anyone is really buying all-in on Oregon just yet. They are playing very well but I think the only teams that UConn won’t have an advantage on will be Ms. St & Baylor. Everyone else, especially Louisville is a great matchup for us.

I think Oregon will be a tougher matchup than you credit, with two must happens for that to be the case. Mentally, they will have to get past the UCONN name, and within the game proper Hebard will have to keep Collier from going off completely. I think Hebard can do that, as well as do some damage herself--this is a different Hebard than the freshman Collier faced two years ago--but it's obviously yet to be proven. Past that, I think one could (I would) argue that Oregon has an advantage at the guard position collectively (unless Williams's play changes drastically) and at the 4 (Sabally vs. Walker), although I imagine a lot of posters here would disagree about one or both. And although Oregon is also not a deep team, their bench has been much more productive than UCONN's up to this point. UCONN might still win--their experience in big games is a major plus imo--but, if Oregon plays their A game, the result could very well be the opposite.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Synonym for "parity" is "equality." What produces "equality" is the really interesting issue. Does parity result from WCBB teams getting better or from UConn getting less better? I believe that the Huskies have better players in total than any other team, including this year. But does that make them the best team? The answer is obvious; they're not the best team this season (and, predictably, not for next when player superiority will not be present). Their two losses were not flukes. On both occasions they were beaten. Why? Because they lacked team chemistry. In the ECU game, they rediscovered the missing ingredient: it doesn't matter if you have the best individuals, it only matters if you have the best team. Should the Huskies return to the form of their last game, no one will beat them. Will they? Stay tuned.

To me it is more matchup and home court advantage. UConn just did not matchup player wise well with Baylor and Baylor had home court, UConn did matchup player wise with LOU but LOU had home court. The Xfactor which I believe will determine best team in the tournament is coaching and although I consider Geno the best coach in WCBB both LOU and Baylor have outstanding coaches. This years tournament will be a barn burner!

 

[Jmsdawg]

Frankly IMO Baylor does not belong with ND and UConn, at this moment (in your post). I've read couple posts on this forum regarding Baylor not getting the love they deserve. Since the loss to Stanford all they have done is win and climbed up the ranks to #1 in both polls, they are beating the teams on their schedule.

Just curios as to why you feel they "are not playing well", is it based on final scores of their games? Baylor currently is #2 in RPI (WarrenNolan.com) and #6 in SOS...compared that with Louisville (#3 RPI and #7 SOS), Oregon (#5 RPI and #22 SOS) and I'll throw in Miss St (#7 RPI and #48 SOS)...or am I missing something?

In my opinion, you are right on. Baylor deserves to be ranked number one and head to head I believe they would win against LOU or Oregon at a neutral site. As a MSST fan, Baylor is the team I would least like MSST to play early, however I would love to see a FF matchup!

 

[HopJim]

Keep ND out of transition and you can win. ND is unstoppable in transition but, similar to many teams, can get bogged down in the half court. Spacing can be a problem for ND. Hof and Mompremier hardly left the lane on defense last night. Turner moved out to the arc and her defender wasn't within 10 feet of her. Maybe Hof stepped out a foot or 2 when guarding Shepard but even that was unnecessary as Shepard rarely shoots even mid-range jumpers. Shepard made 26 three-pointers as a soph at Nebraska but has yet to make one at ND.

Couldn't figure out Turner. Not sure if she was just misused or she didn't understand the defense.

 

[triaddukefan]

Greenville SC is hosting the East Region next year? Really? That's where I live. I am sooooooooooooooooooooo there already!

Regionals are fun.... even if your team isnt involved. Ive been to five.... 1999, 2002 (regional final beatdown on some chickens), 2007 (heartbreak in greensboro), 2008, 2015 (the chickens advance to their first final 4) and I will be attending this season.

 

[Plebe]

Regionals are fun.... even if your team isnt involved. Ive been to five.... 1999, 2002 (regional final beatdown on some chickens), 2007 (heartbreak in greensboro), 2008, 2015 (the chickens advance to their first final 4) and I will be attending this season.

Nice, so you saw the epic 1999 regional that ended Holdsclaw's career?

 

[triaddukefan]

Nice, so you saw the epic 1999 regional that ended Holdsclaw's career?

Yep..... along with at least 6,000 crestfallen fans clad in bright orange.