Non-Key Tweets

[jostar1]

 

[uconndogs]

B1G needs to be in Florida. FSU might be an option, but might go to the SEC. B1G might target both FSU and Miami.

Pure speculation on my part, but I would not be at all surprised if the BiG and SEC have given a wink and a nod to stay north and south. Not that they would ever collude mind you.......

 

[jostar1]

 

[UConn Dan]

I posted this in another thread, I meant to post here:

Why are we buying into the number 8?? ACC needs two-thirds to dissolve the conference, why would they only need 8 to dissolve the GOR? Why would ESPN sign off on that?

 

[Rufus]

The top 3 states for football recruits are Texas, Florida and Georgia.

Texas and Texas A&M are in the SEC and no other Texas team fits the B1G profile.

Florida and Georgia are different stories. Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech all fit the B1G profile, with GT being AAU, and all 3 would ditch the ACC for the B1G in a heartbeat if the B1G ever comes calling. FSU will likely have interest from the SEC as well, but not Miami or GT.

Here are the the only schools I see as having a possibility of joining the B1G:

Independent: Notre Dame
PAC 12: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal
ACC: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Miami

That is 12 schools. Not all of them will be in the B1G, but I don’t think anyone else outside of those 12 have a shot at getting a B1G invite.

 

[jostar1]

From TechSideline:

FSU's plan to get out? Never heard this before. From Flugaur's show today.​

It was the last thing he mentioned in his recent 2-hour show. I linked to it at the 1:59:13 point below where he starts to talk about it. Only about 2 mins. Here's the gist of it. 1. It all depends on Notre Dame leaving the ACC early. 2. If this happens. FSU thinks that the 2036 obligations could then come back to 2027. And after that, FSU (and others) would be free to leave. 3. Side note: regardless of the above, ACC schools would be happy if Notre Dame left early since ND has now shown its hand, having no interest in joining for football. 4. Also in the show he says that FSU doesn't think that dissolving the conference though the rumored 8 votes is doable. And they are not trying to do that. Anyway, has anyone heard this anywhere else before? I wish he would have went into more detail. But maybe that's all the info he had. ** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 4/5/2023, 11:41:53 PM

Link: FSU and GOR/TV Contract

Posted: 04/05/2023 at 11:40PM

I'll be the one to say it. Flugaur is right. FSU is leaving early.​

They are not being coy about it. ACC fans are in denial because it will be so horribly disruptive.. It's coming. They have said so. They have given notice. Remember the recent FSU board meeting? Flugaur says they have three options in mind: 1 - The original GoR carried an expiry date of 2027. The revised GoR was extended to 2036. The ACC does not give money to the schools in exchange for their media rights. They offer "consideration." The consideration specified for the extension was access to the ACCN cable network and the inclusion of some Notre Dame content in the ACCN programming. If ND should leave The ACC, FSU will claim that they are no longer getting the consideration that they were offered in exchange for extending the deal. This won't invalidate the GoR entirely, but could cause a return to the original 2027 expiry date. That's a short enough interval to allow FSU to bail out. The drawback here is that the whole scheme depends on ND leaving the conference in the next couple of years. 2 - The outcome of Johnson v. NCAA seeking to declare college athletes employees of the university for whom they compete. Put simply, FSU will claim that this so drastically changes the nature of college sports, that existing business relationships can no longer serve the parties involved. Many schools will be unable or unwilling to continue athletics if they must meet a payroll for the players. This plan too, depends on externalities, those being the judgement and the timeline. 3 - This is the ugliest road but the one that FSU can follow independent of other parties. FSU will simply withdraw from The ACC, invite the lawsuit, and allow The State of Florida to take up the fight on their behalf. The legal fight would be more affordable for the state government. Flugaur indicates that Clemson intends to use this same tack. ** Edited by 33laszlo99 at 4/6/2023, 5:48:14 PM

 

[dayooper]

Hasn't the B1G always coveted UNC and Virginia as well as GT for its fast growing Atlanta market? Maybe it has changed since the B1G seems to be on a big metro bent when it comes to adding schools these days. Add in ND and that's a nice four for the B1G. A B1G school in Florida would feel out of place.

I believe they would still covet UNC, but I’m not sure about UVA. FSU would be the only school left that would be even close to ND. I think UNC and UVA are more valuable to the SEC and FSU is more valuable to the Big10. A Florida school would be as out of place as USC and UCLA are.

 

[Ha Who]

Why?

Miami bigger market than FSU

 

[uconndogs]

Miami bigger market than FSU

Define market.

 

[businesslawyer]

From TechSideline:

FSU's plan to get out? Never heard this before. From Flugaur's show today.​

It was the last thing he mentioned in his recent 2-hour show. I linked to it at the 1:59:13 point below where he starts to talk about it. Only about 2 mins. Here's the gist of it. 1. It all depends on Notre Dame leaving the ACC early. 2. If this happens. FSU thinks that the 2036 obligations could then come back to 2027. And after that, FSU (and others) would be free to leave. 3. Side note: regardless of the above, ACC schools would be happy if Notre Dame left early since ND has now shown its hand, having no interest in joining for football. 4. Also in the show he says that FSU doesn't think that dissolving the conference though the rumored 8 votes is doable. And they are not trying to do that. Anyway, has anyone heard this anywhere else before? I wish he would have went into more detail. But maybe that's all the info he had. ** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 4/5/2023, 11:41:53 PM

Link: FSU and GOR/TV Contract

Posted: 04/05/2023 at 11:40PM

I'll be the one to say it. Flugaur is right. FSU is leaving early.​

They are not being coy about it. ACC fans are in denial because it will be so horribly disruptive.. It's coming. They have said so. They have given notice. Remember the recent FSU board meeting? Flugaur says they have three options in mind: 1 - The original GoR carried an expiry date of 2027. The revised GoR was extended to 2036. The ACC does not give money to the schools in exchange for their media rights. They offer "consideration." The consideration specified for the extension was access to the ACCN cable network and the inclusion of some Notre Dame content in the ACCN programming. If ND should leave The ACC, FSU will claim that they are no longer getting the consideration that they were offered in exchange for extending the deal. This won't invalidate the GoR entirely, but could cause a return to the original 2027 expiry date. That's a short enough interval to allow FSU to bail out. The drawback here is that the whole scheme depends on ND leaving the conference in the next couple of years. 2 - The outcome of Johnson v. NCAA seeking to declare college athletes employees of the university for whom they compete. Put simply, FSU will claim that this so drastically changes the nature of college sports, that existing business relationships can no longer serve the parties involved. Many schools will be unable or unwilling to continue athletics if they must meet a payroll for the players. This plan too, depends on externalities, those being the judgement and the timeline. 3 - This is the ugliest road but the one that FSU can follow independent of other parties. FSU will simply withdraw from The ACC, invite the lawsuit, and allow The State of Florida to take up the fight on their behalf. The legal fight would be more affordable for the state government. Flugaur indicates that Clemson intends to use this same tack. ** Edited by 33laszlo99 at 4/6/2023, 5:48:14 PM

So simply speaking as a business lawyer, and having no love for the ACC, the argument that if ND leaves that means FSU didn't get consideration for agreeing to extend the GOR, and therefore the extension is not binding upon it, is, to use a legal term, batpoop stupid.

 

[Hoophound]

Miami bigger market than FSU

Lol. No way. FSU is the bigger, better fish.

 

[ScottVib]

Miami bigger market than FSU

FSU commands much more market share across all of Florida's markets than Miami. They are by far the more valuable property to a TV network driven addition.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

FSU commands much more market share across all of Florida's markets than Miami. They are by far the more valuable property to a TV network driven addition.

Nationally as well.

 

[Rufus]

I think UNC and UVA would prefer the B1G to the SEC. Outside of the academic prestige of the B1G, both universities have many Olympic sports that are not sponsored in the SEC. Those teams would all have a conference home in the B1G. We aren’t talking 1 or 2 sports, we are talking multiple sports that would have no conference home in the SEC.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

They don’t have enough teams that have greener pastures to get the votes.

The first issue is ESPN. In an environment where Disney is actively cutting there is little incentive for ESPN to encourage blowing up a contract that gives them valuable content at a reasonable rate for the next dozen years. That limits the incentive for them to encourage either the SEC or the Big XII to add. Realistically how many ACC schools are valued at the full share SEC amount, let alone are additive? UNC perhaps… Clemson and Florida St are the name brands but are in states that the SEC network already has full carriage on. From there you’re looking at the second team in NC or Virginia. It’s not a great fit… and the teams who can be considered is too limited.

The Big XII is largely a lateral move financially and a step back for the academics within the ACC. They’re a break glass option if and only if they were no longer protected through the GOR.

The Big Ten is the conference that would have an incentive, but has the highest contract that would require the biggest brands to make it a beneficial move. There aren’t enough teams they could add that would allow the GOR to be canceled and add value to their deal.

ESPN isn’t going to sign off on paying a premium for rights they already own cheaply. The Big Ten doesn’t have enough spots open, the Big XII is a backup plan for the schools now. I don’t see it.

Additionally, Swai/m is also a Big XII mouthpiece… Yormark probably called a bunch of schools and leaked it to Swai/m (similar to how the C-USA commissioner called UConn and was politely told no thank you and then got it leaked), Swai/m then ran with schools are having conversations for his own benefits and Yormark can then see if he can get some schools to panic that their conference-mates are bailing and commit.

Kentucky will throw a fit on Louisville and South Carolina will throw a fit on Clemson. Send Clemson and Louisville to the Big 12, along with NC State and Virginia Tech. Then send Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia to the SEC. The ultimate Richard move by ESPN against the Big Ten. All that would be left are Pitt, Miami, Duke, Wake Forest, Syracuse and Boston College and they would have to add UConn, Temple, maybe USF, maybe Memphis, maybe East Carolina or App State and/or James Madison. The ACC would be a downgraded version of itself.

Fox would get access to the Southeast through the Big 12, so they wouldn't object, either. Only loser is the Big Ten.

 

[dayooper]

I think UNC and UVA would prefer the B1G to the SEC. Outside of the academic prestige of the B1G, both universities have many Olympic sports that are not sponsored in the SEC. Those teams would all have a conference home in the B1G. We aren’t talking 1 or 2 sports, we are talking multiple sports that would have no conference home in the SEC.

I believe UVA I believe would most definitely want the Big10, but I’m not so sure on UNC. They have a more southern culture right now and there are factions within the university that most definitely want the SEC.

The Big10 won’t take scrubs just so they can get ND (I still have doubts ND would go to the Big10 if the ACC broke up). They need to get either FSU or UNC. I believe UNC is more valuable to the SEC than FSU. I also believe that FSU is more valuable to the Big10 than they are to the SEC. That’s why I put them with the Big10 instead of UNC.

 

[Rufus]

I think FSU is the most valuable school out there for the B1G as well (outside of Notre Dame).

 

[Rufus]

Fox would get access to the Southeast through the Big 12, so they wouldn't object, either. Only loser is the Big Ten.

The B1G is not a loser in anything when it comes to realignment.

Any team of real value will be in the B1G or SEC.

 

[Luna]

Ya… they have money… that’s about it

 

[noeynox]

Ya… they have money… that’s about it

The idea that THE MONEY is not going to aid in THE WINNING over the long term doesn't make sense. The money separation is just starting to reveal itself. Why do you think you are hearing anxiety coming from the FSU contingent? As UConn fans it is easy to come to believe the money from conference payouts doesn't matter. WE are the outlier. Maybe you can toss Villanova in with us, but in any event it is a small list. Right now the Big Ten in football, is the only real competition to the SEC.

 

[ScottVib]

Kentucky will throw a fit on Louisville and South Carolina will throw a fit on Clemson. Send Clemson and Louisville to the Big 12, along with NC State and Virginia Tech. Then send Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia to the SEC. The ultimate Richard move by ESPN against the Big Ten. All that would be left are Pitt, Miami, Duke, Wake Forest, Syracuse and Boston College and they would have to add UConn, Temple, maybe USF, maybe Memphis, maybe East Carolina or App State and/or James Madison. The ACC would be a downgraded version of itself.

Fox would get access to the Southeast through the Big 12, so they wouldn't object, either. Only loser is the Big Ten.

Except again... This costs ESPN money... at a time they're actively trying to reduce costs. They're going to pay-more for rights in Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia & Georgia Tech than it currently costs them.. and that would likely cost more than the current per-team worth of those members. (Georgia Tech doesn't have anywhere near the value of Clemson, nor would they be anywhere near the current per-team value of the SEC membership. Similarly UVa is likely to turn up its nose academically at the SEC, I'd be very surprised if they were to play ball here; Louisville wouldn't even be in the conversation for the SEC for Kentucky to throw a fit about).

On the Big XII side of the ledger, that deal is currently shared with Fox. So you're paying pro-rata for your piece of cost to NC State, Virginia Tech, Clemson & Louisville to join that conference; a largely lateral move for those schools.. but while you might be able to dissolve the GOR you still have the matter of conference withdrawal fees... those schools aren't paying a withdrawal fee to end up with roughly the same payout.

Ultimately I just don't see a happy ending for enough ACC schools to dissolve the GOR even if only 8 votes were necessary. Nor do I see enough of a financial incentive for ESPN to pay enough of a premium to increase the SEC payout by at least the same per-team amount for any combination of 4 schools... to the SEC. The markets are either redundant or the teams aren't compelling enough to make it happen. This same math also impacts the Big Ten and Fox although to a lesser extent because the ACC markets are at least additive to the Big Ten carriage agreement. The Big XII is largely a lateral move, a break-glass for the ACC teams if and only if the ACC GOR and conference were falling apart. You aren't voluntarily going there without knowing the league is toast. If your vote against dissolving the GOR prevents the desirable teams from leaving... then you aren't voting to dissolve; there just is not incentive for you to have to execute your "break-glass" plan.

 

[CL82]

The B1G is not a loser in anything when it comes to realignment.

Any team of real value will be in the B1G or SEC.

And quite a few teams, without real value.

 

[Luna]

After this year I don’t know how anyone would want uconn in any conference besides the big east..I have been hearing that uconn can’t survive without football money since 2012..its 2023 now.. I think we are doing ok

 

[WestHartHusk]

After this year I don’t know how anyone would want uconn in any conference besides the big east..I have been hearing that uconn can’t survive without football money since 2012..its 2023 now.. I think we are doing ok

This is not sustainable for the athletic department. If you think it is, your head is buried in the proverbial beach sand.

 

[Luna]

There is something special about this conference and uconn …the fan support is though the roof.. no conference has anything close to the big east tournament.. we are selling out every big east game… it won’t be the same in any other conference