Moose, the insider on the Cincinnati 247 board, now says that BYU is out.
If true, they got derailed by the rape culture and LGBTQ treatment.
So now it would seem the remaining frontrunners are Cincy at 11 and Houston, UCONN or maybe UCF as the 12. If that's the case, which school gets the 12 will depend on whether the non-TX schools band together to defeat UH, or do they succumb to the TX political pressure to include Houston because they're all still wet pants scared that UT will leave the league at some point in the future? It goes to UCONN or UCF if the former holds true.
If the non-TX schools are all smart enough, a huge question mark, they'll all grow a pair and stand up to UT because they're not likely going to leave. That could cause TX to be disagreeable regarding anything the non-TX schools want, which ultimately might mean no expansion at all.
If they do decide to go to 14, any combination that leaves UCONN out is totally insane, because it probably means they take Memphis or USF as the 14 instead of us. Although it would be totally inexplicable, the B12 has already demonstrated they're not the sharpest pencils in the box, so nothing they do will surprise me.
It's all going to boil down to how deeply both factions decide to dig in.