My wish list for 20 would be UConn, Temple, Texas, Baylor, and Tulane along with Notre Dame. Cincinnati, South Florida, West Virginia, and Texas Tech are also options. Texas has already reached out to the ACC once in 2011, but I don't think they would come alone. They would want friends. They also want to be with Notre Dame, and they are tied to ESPN. We'll have to wait until closer to 2025 for availability of anyone in the Big XII, but if we added 2, then the objective will be 20.
I don't mean any disrespect but the idea that Texas would join the ACC any time soon is laughable. The ACC is their 5th best option at present. In 2011, the situation was different. UT's options were limited only because of the LHN. And even then it was only a cursory 'glance' into the idea of joining the ACC.
1) UT's first and most desired option, apart from all Twitter Hillbilly garbage, is to stay right where they are. The Big 12, even if it changes 'shape' by the time the GOR is up, is still their #1 choice. Oklahoma leaving does not necessarily mean that UT would feel the need to leave. But both of those programs are logistically attached at the hip. OU to UT, even more so than OU and OSU. And UT to OU, even more so than UT to TTU.
OU and UT also want to expand back to 12 but can't get it done because the Little Sisters in the conference are concerned about their potentially dwindling slices of the revenue pie. I won't feign knowledge I don't have, but the practical thinking says that Big 12 expansion is no better than 5-5 at present (UT, OU, OSU, Tech, WVU, for it) , or at best 6-4, if Kansas favored it. And 8 votes are needed. As long as two of the following - ISU, KSU, Baylor and TCU - oppose expansion they won't voluntarily expand. It will have to be forced upon them.
If OU and UT ever leave the Big 12, it's going to be over this issue + the lack of CCG hurting the league with the playoff selection committee. Or it will be because the PAC or B1G came calling again. And in the event this happens, they will almost certainly (99%) go together.
2) The PAC is easily the most desired option because the B1G will never take on OSU and TTU, much less Baylor or TCU. And this is a HUGE concern. Huge. Besides, apart from USC, there are no football titans in that conference comparable to OU and UT. There is no great wonder why this almost happened, twice, for REAL. And as long as the PAC rests at 12, this option is always on the table. The PAC going to 14 makes no sense. 16, with a pod of 4 teams from the central time zone, makes great sense.
3) That said, should Delaney want UT and OU before the PAC can act, they would both have to listen (to say the least). Assuming the GOR issue, at that point, could be settled.
4) Beyond this - the choice is pretty obvious. Notre Dame has done it forever. BYU has proven they can do it. There is no reason at all that UT would need to do anything other than go Indy and keep their LHN cash cow.
*there is a big gap here*
5) If all else fails, there's always the ACC. The new TV contract alone makes the ACC far less desirable to UT than it was in 2011. And you could argue that it wasn't that desired to begin with, in 2011, just exploratory conversation. And coming "with friends" is interesting considered that Oklahoma wasn't mentioned. Even accepting the very low odds of probability of this move, a scenario does NOT exist where UT ends up in the ACC w/o Oklahoma. If they have to 'divorce' OU, they will go Independent all day long over sharing $$ in the ACC with...(fill in the blank).
Additionally, should they be forced, the only sensible expansion options for the B12 are USF and UCF. Don't trust anyone that tells you different. At least one of the Twitter hillbillies has got that much right. The Big 12 revenue model is built on matchups and direct $$ from the TV networks. Not cable subscribers. And there are effectively no desirable teams (w/r/t highly desirable matchups) available this side of BYU. And the BYU thing is a non-starter for the Big 12 at the moment. Too much would need to change. So with no desirable football option (ala TCU and WVU, which were pushed by FOX) the Big 12 would move towards what benefits them all. Two patsies to beat up on, while adding a presence in FL. WVU's outlier status pushes them East, rather than West for SDSU and...just say, Fresno St. But also adding the #4 program in a football hungry large state like FL is the equivalent of adding a Texas Tech. USF is a young program and the ceiling is high. An obvious move.
As for UConn...I think UConn is sitting in a great position, ironically enough, in the AAC without a GOR. Flexibility over these next several years could be MASSIVE. There is still a lot to be decided. Also, I wouldn't spend ten seconds worrying about AAU status. If the move makes $en$e otherwise, the move will be made. And if the B1G really wants some of those Big 12 and ACC schools, those respective GOR's squash a lot of fantasy right off the bat.
