Non-Key Tweets

[TruDomGopher]

My wife does Sudoku; I do realignment. Basically, we're quiet and boring people. And I have a very dry sense of humor that is frequently misinterpreted.

I also am chock full of hidden bias and assumptions. For example, I believe GOR's can be busted and liquidated damages paid like any other contract. I also think there's no way the B1G or anyone else wants to test that because they're approaching the invisible line that draws unwanted complications--like a congressional hearing.

That means that realignment, at least as far as grabbing an ACC or Big 12 school, is dead--in which case we have lots of time to talk.

But that leads to Delany's dilemma: time value. The B1G has a cash cow network now.

Hypothetically, let's say the house I want to rent the house next door. Some guy from Texas says I'm moving and I might take it but not til 2024; I'll pay 3K a month. Some guy from Virginia says I'll might take it when I move in 2026 and but I'll only pay 1K a month. Some guy from Connecticut says I will take it, now. I can only pay 1K a month, but I'll take real good care of it.

It's basically a math problem that can be quantified. I can't do the math because I don't have the inputs but my educated guess says, Take the money now. Or, to put it in a baseball metaphor, sometimes you win the game because you've got sluggers sailing 'em over the fences, but you can also win the game with a single here, a double there, a steal and a sacrifice--basic scrappy baseball.

Of course, once the problem is quantified you've got to get consensus of all constituents. Delany, the cat herder.

To use a rather more crude metaphor: Delany at the dance eyeing that sweet young thing from Texas holding court with her suitors, all smiles in her tiara and billowing pink dress. So Delany asks for a dance and she just says, "Maybe the next dance, but not tonight." Delany approaches the Virginia dogwood queen and gets shot down. So Delany wanders over to the punch bowl and some girl from Connecticut wanders over and say, "You're cute. Listen, I know I might not be the prettiest girl here but if you dance with me you're gonna get laid tonight."

That's where realignment is now in a nutshell. Yes, you can get into all that x televisions, y advertising, 14 members gives us this much live football vs 16 giving us this much inventory. How much guaranteed now vs. waiting on potential partners--potential being the operative word.

So I guess my hidden bias in realignment is probably just simple horniness. I want it now.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Delany is, or will be, 67 this year. I don't think he cares about getting laid tonight, so "potential" it is.

On the GoR thing, they're not all made equal. The B1G has one, but doesn't need it. On the other hand, it's the only thing holding the ACC together. If the exit fee alone isn't enough to stop the ACC poaching, as years tick by, neither will the GoR.

 

[TruDomGopher]

Delany is, or will be, 67 this year. I don't think he cares about getting laid tonight, so "potential" it is.

On the GoR thing, they're not all made equal. The B1G has one, but doesn't need it. On the other hand, it's the only thing holding the ACC together. If the exit fee alone isn't enough to stop the ACC poaching, as years tick by, neither will the GoR.

You may be right--but Delany's still cute. And frugal, too. Apparently goes to Supercuts.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@TruDomGopher you're kind of a madman, yet I strangely kind of like your style and I'm entertained by it.

 

[Adios]

I live in New York. Outside of four years in Storrs, I have always lived in New York.

I have never met a Buffalo fan. I've never seen Buffalo sports mentioned in the local paper. I don't know of anyone who has gone, is going or will go to Buffalo.

They don't exist as an presence in most of the state. (As for their rebranding, good luck. SUNY has 64 campuses and not a one of them is close to being considered a flagship.)

I saw a UB hat here. I couldn't believe it.

 

[Ldandy]

To prove that their SEC myth-busting was no fluke, I could see Missouri looking for a new challenge.

Winning a watered down SEC East two years in a row followed by a demolition in the title game didn't fully bust any myths IMO. Let's see them win The SEC or at least win a major New Year's Six Bowl Game before they start worrying about new challenges.

In reality much of their fan base has bought in to the whole S-E-C nonsense, and would be highly opposed to leaving for any conference, B1G included. With The SEC Network a reality, there really is no reason for them to go either. All of this is a moot point really, as it fail to address the most obvious question. Does The B1G actually want Missouri? The Tigers were doing everything short of prostituting themselves last go around, yet Delany still passed over them. What's changed?

 

[Seaa Blue]

You may be right--but Delany's still cute. And frugal, too. Apparently goes to Supercuts.

I think it's been a while since it mattered where he got his hair cut.

 

[TruDomGopher]

You made my day with that pic--friggin' lost it. Thanks.

 

[TruDomGopher]

Would you trust your conference to this man? Gawd, I'm still laughing.

 

[TruDomGopher]

Winning a watered down SEC East two years in a row followed by a demolition in the title game didn't fully bust any myths IMO. Let's see them win The SEC or at least win a major New Year's Six Bowl Game before they start worrying about new challenges.

In reality much of their fan base has bought in to the whole S-E-C nonsense, and would be highly opposed to leaving for any conference, B1G included. With The SEC Network a reality, there really is no reason for them to go either. All of this is a moot point really, as it fail to address the most obvious question. Does The B1G actually want Missouri? The Tigers were doing everything short of prostituting themselves last go around, yet Delany still passed over them. What's changed?

When Nebraska was added, the Big Ten Network was an interesting experiment that no one knew would succeed and many suspected may well fail. The eastern focus on expansion still had all the prime targets available--Pitt, Syracuse, on to BC, Rutgers, UConn, Maryland, UVA, UNC down the mid-Atlantic. The B1G leadership considered Nebraska a serendipitous accident and weren't prepared or willing to add mouths to feed in the West.

Now they know that the TV thing is a license to print cash, the best expansion targets are off the table at least until 2024, and the sweet spot for live sports on B1G network is still 16. Live sports=live viewing=advertising revenue. 16 provides the right amount of inventory for TV--bb and hockey every night of the week all winter long.

In addition to adding markets and inventory for TV, Missouri would make Nebraska happy and avoid any deterioration of their relationship to the rest of the conference.

 

[MattMang23]

One of the guys in our IT Dept. at work is a UB grad. He once spent 14 seconds one day telling me all the wonderful things about it.

 

[buddy]

Delany is, or will be, 67 this year. I don't think he cares about getting laid tonight, so "potential" it is.

On the GoR thing, they're not all made equal. The B1G has one, but doesn't need it. On the other hand, it's the only thing holding the ACC together. If the exit fee alone isn't enough to stop the ACC poaching, as years tick by, neither will the GoR.

You are incorrect. When you are that age you take it whenever you can get it. The future is now!

 

[Seaa Blue]

Sorry, forgot there's a pill for that.

 

[TruDomGopher]

Yeah, it gives you a huskie...

 

[TruDomGopher]

BTW, I thought I should add this: Sometimes things get shortened, as in, "The B1G blew off Mizzoo" or "The B1G didn't want Missouri." It's my understanding that Missouri and B1G actually had talks and Missouri balked hard at the idea of having to buy into the B1G Network and not getting full share right away. If I was looking from Missouri's perspective, the whole idea might have looked and smelled a little "Texas/Big12" to me, too. Remember, at that time, the whole network thing was new and had everyone a little befuddled. They seem happy enough now with the SEC, so who knows?

 

[junglehusky]

BTW, I thought I should add this: Sometimes things get shortened, as in, "The B1G blew off Mizzoo" or "The B1G didn't want Missouri." It's my understanding that Missouri and B1G actually had talks and Missouri balked hard at the idea of having to buy into the B1G Network and not getting full share right away. If I was looking from Missouri's perspective, the whole idea might have looked and smelled a little "Texas/Big12" to me, too. Remember, at that time, the whole network thing was new and had everyone a little befuddled. They seem happy enough now with the SEC, so who knows?

Interesting, I've not seen that perspective but it sounds plausible.

I don't think any P5 schools will be seriously pursued for a few years. Maybe an outside chance of Texahoma and the B12 implosion scenario, but I would put that pretty low and Mizzou leaving the SEC for the B1G even lower.

 

[TruDomGopher]

The joker in the deck is TV...I can imagine the conversation goes something like this:

FOX: Delany? Listen, we've got to get some better programming on B1G Network. Need to make some money here, this Big East contract is killing us.
DELANY: What do have in mind?
FOX: Basketball, good basketball, every night of the week. Just last night we wasted a prime basketball slot with women's volleyball. Only ads we could sell were Viagra and Cialis--got the dirty old men and adolescent boy demographic locked up with women's volleyball. (Pause) That reminds me, I should refill my prescription.
DELANY: (Pause) Me, too.
FOX: Get me more programming. With a winter like this, everyone's watching tv and we've got to have better product.
DELANY: This winter's an anomaly.
FOX: No, it's not. Every winters going to be like this from now on. Global warming--that's what Brian Williams said on Nightly News.
DELANY: He's lying. Or he's still in shock from getting shot down...There's no science to support that.
FOX: Yes there is--every Big Ten school has a study saying global warming's real.
DELANY: Whatever. There's no candidates for expansion right now. GoR's have stopped us cold.
FOX: Bust 'em. I need content now.
DELANY: That means going to court...
FOX: So?
DELANY: and going through discovery.
FOX: (Pause) I see your point. What about UConn? They're available--great brand and UConn's women would probably outdraw this turkey Big East package...
DELANY: Not AAU. Don't know if I can get the votes.
FOX: Those old farts still harping on that? Like you need to be Einstein to dribble a ball?
DELANY: I didn't say it's a bad idea--it's a great idea, but I'm the one that has to figure out how to sell those old farts.
FOX: So do it. You're the frigging genius. Read it in Sports Illustrated. Work on UConn. They're not doing nothing--I'm looking out my window toward Connecticut now and Warde's just standing in the window flipping off somebody--Bristol, Boston, not sure what direction that is...
DELANY: Anything else?
FOX: What about Dakota for hockey? Great team.
DELANY: (Pause) Let's see what works out with American schools before we consider Canada...
FOX: Okay, talk to you later.

 

[CL82]

To use a rather more crude metaphor: Delany at the dance eyeing that sweet young thing from Texas holding court with her suitors, all smiles in her tiara and billowing pink dress. So Delany asks for a dance and she just says, "Maybe the next dance, but not tonight." Delany approaches the Virginia dogwood queen and gets shot down. So Delany wanders over to the punch bowl and some girl from Connecticut wanders over and say, "You're cute. Listen, I know I might not be the prettiest girl here but if you dance with me you're gonna get laid tonight."

Dom, that's an entertaining but false analogy. CR isn't about finding one optimal partner it's about controlling the playing field. Think of the board game Risk rather than a school dance. Sometimes the strategy to world domination isn't to acquiring the biggest countries or continent. It is often preferable to take smaller but attractive targets to position yourself well for the future, and make your opponents current possessions more difficult to defend down the road. Connecticut does just that for the B1G. I'm sure Delaney is aware of it.

 

[TruDomGopher]

CL82, I prefer to think of it as entertaining but grossly over-simplified. Delany has a strategy and he's been quite clear about what it is--I think Detroit Free Press posted a video of an interview about a week ago that essentially reiterated what he's been saying all along. The targets are the power centers that money flows through--NYC, DC--and "establishing a presence" which I take to mean implanting a B1G meme in the collective zeitgeist of those power centers. (In the crude analogy, there are lots of potential partners that would 'put out' but don't live in the right location.) The closer a school is to those power centers, the more attractive they are to the B1G.

That's why, all factors considered, I think the highest probability targets based on known factors now are UConn and VTech. But it always raises interesting questions: If Mizzoo wanted in now, do you take them, or do you wait for a higher priority that fits the strategic vision?

The longer you wait, the greater the probability of an unforeseen extraneous event. For example, what if Texas and Oklahoma called Delany tomorrow and said, "We want into the B1G--package deal. Take it or leave it." What would the B1G do? Personally, I would prefer Delany tell 'em to pound sound in that situation, but realistically that combo would probably be irresistible.

That's why I find it so interesting. Like my wife's mind, it's an endless puzzle.

 

[whaler11]

Is Fluguar losing his mind over carry/conceal key or non-key? TIA.

 

[NEforceUConn]

..................-I'm looking out my window toward Connecticut now and Warde's just standing in the kitchen window flipping off somebody--Bristol, Boston, not sure what direction that is...........
.

Too funny! I had to add that small correction for you

 

[CL82]

CL82, I prefer to think of it as entertaining but grossly over-simplified. Delany has a strategy and he's been quite clear about what it is--I think Detroit Free Press posted a video of an interview about a week ago that essentially reiterated what he's been saying all along. The targets are the power centers that money flows through--NYC, DC--and "establishing a presence" which I take to mean implanting a B1G meme in the collective zeitgeist of those power centers. (In the crude analogy, there are lots of potential partners that would 'put out' but don't live in the right location.) The closer a school is to those power centers, the more attractive they are to the B1G.

That's why, all factors considered, I think the highest probability targets based on known factors now are UConn and VTech. But it always raises interesting questions: If Mizzoo wanted in now, do you take them, or do you wait for a higher priority that fits the strategic vision?

The longer you wait, the greater the probability of an unforeseen extraneous event. For example, what if Texas and Oklahoma called Delany tomorrow and said, "We want into the B1G--package deal. Take it or leave it." What would the B1G do? Personally, I would prefer Delany tell 'em to pound sound in that situation, but realistically that combo would probably be irresistible.

That's why I find it so interesting. Like my wife's mind, it's an endless puzzle.

I think we agree. It not about the ideal target. It is about strategic acquisitions. The B1G has a presence in DC, and NYC. It will to strengthen and expand upon those footholds. That positions GOR free UConn well.

 

[TruDomGopher]

The figures I last heard are at least a couple of years out of date, but the CIC was pulling down somewhere north of $10 Billion in funded research and $3.5 Billion of that or so came through DC. Presumably, a large portion of the balance came through NY. As of now, the primary competition for research dollars are the Ivy League and U of California system. The B1G strategy isn't really a mystery. Have the Big Ten discussed at the water cooler and it should filter to the appropriations meetings--but only if you're in right markets.

When the expansion thing started, the schools I had tabbed were Syracuse, Rutgers, and UConn (which is how I ended up coming to this board). For all the yacking on boards, I never thought UT or ND were serious entries for a variety of reasons. In many ways, the Big 12 meltdown and Nebraska/Missouri period were a huge distraction and seemed to confuse the B1G leadership--they couldn't seem to figure out how all the pieces were going to come together, how tv really fit, how important AAU was, etc. I was surprised they took Nebraska and skipped Missouri, but figured maybe they wanted that slot for BC, pushing through NYC into New England for 16. Say what you will about Swofford, but he's made some shrewd moves and when the history of expansion is finally written, he may end up looking pretty good. I never saw Maryland coming at all.

So...basically, I'm mostly wrong about this stuff and I think--but am far from sure--that the B1G stays more focused on executing the strategy. And that should be good news for UConn.

 

[Ldandy]

Swofford made some shrewd moves? When exactly did that start?

 

[billybud]

Swofford's moves?

Compared to whom? To former Big East Commissioners? Swofford looks pretty good. To Big 12 Commissioners? Still looks pretty good.

I still do not think that Swofford is any CR savant, but he has done fairly well with the hand that he was dealt.