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UConn men are currently 13th in national attendance. In a few year as the team improves from recruiting and more experience they will be a top 5 draw.

http://www.uscho.com/stats/attendance/division-i-men/2014-2015/

Can North Dakota deliver BTN content into a top 25 tv market? No but we can. So that can drive Fees and ad revenue for the BTN. I am one of the guys who will come home from NYC and watch the game on BTN in Fairfield. County. I was very disappointed By the attendance at Bridgeport, but we have to keep trying once or twice a year. Cav will have us in top 20 in 3-5 years and attendance in Hartford will explode.

Womens Bball will have a similar impact. On their own they do not get it done, but it's the sum of the parts. SNY is making money on us, so can the BTN.
 
Stinger92860 said:
UConn men are currently 13th in national attendance. In a few year as the team improves from recruiting and more experience they will be a top 5 draw.

http://www.uscho.com/stats/attendance/division-i-men/2014-2015/

Can North Dakota deliver BTN content into a top 25 tv market? No but we can. So that can drive Fees and ad revenue for the BTN. I am one of the guys who will come home from NYC and watch the game on BTN in Fairfield. County. I was very disappointed By the attendance at Bridgeport, but we have to keep trying once or twice a year. Cav will have us in top 20 in 3-5 years and attendance in Hartford will explode.

Womens Bball will have a similar impact. On their own they do not get it done, but it's the sum of the parts. SNY is making money on us, so can the BTN.
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North Dakota is the Kentucky and Green Bay Packers of NCAA hockey, they have fans EVERYWHERE. Seriously, they do. If they played a game in CT, there's be 500-1,000 Sioux fans there guaranteed. They get thousands to show up to road games in far-away places like Omaha, Denver, UP Michigan, etc. I would bet you a million dollars if the B1G was looking for a hockey-only team, they'd take UND before UConn. Hockey is not a ratings and market-driven sport, so bringing in big markets is really not a useful metric. It's more about producing content that a very targeted demographic will watch. UND-MN, UND-Wisconsin, and UND-Michigan games are at the top of what college hockey can reasonably expect out of TV ratings. Not to mention UND has these existing rivalries with all four of the big-shot B1G hockey programs. This is not even a question. TruDomGopher, though a Gopher, and a football fan, undoubtedly will agree with me on this.

And I know you all jump down my throat when I say it, but while UConn's hockey fan base has been very good this year and the sport has caught on very well, they fudged the crap out of their attendance numbers this year, worse than most other teams do. Even their own beat reporter called them out on it.
 
UCONN Hockey has a tremendous amount of upside. I really think the school, the location, the brand, and the conference are going lift the program very quickly.
I just looked at the roster. 1 player from CT. 6 from MA. 2 from Ontario. 2 from British Columbia. 2 from Finland. 2 from Washington. 2 from Minn. 2 from Mich. 2 from PA. Very spread out.
 
This is all a dumb argument though because I don't think the B1G will be looking to add hockey-only membership, I don't think this is on their plate for maximizing TV revenue. That would be done by increasing the overall footprint and breadth of the league in the east in football and basketball. UConn building a solid hockey program would serve as a nice secondary feather in our hat, but our main pitch has to be of course the basketball brand, and a football program that is at least respectable, a stadium that we are willing to/have plans to upgrade, and that is supported in the state.
 
If they can capture in-market BTN subscriber rates of $0.90 per household per month in North Dakota (about 173k cable households, http://www.tvb.org/media/file/Cable_UEs_by_State.pdf) simply by adding a hockey team, they'll be adding $1.9 million in annual revenue. I'm sure they would have to pay North Dakota less than $1 million to join the B1G in hockey. It would be a profitable move.

But, the University of North Dakota is not AAU. And we're talking small money - after Fox takes half the BTN, the profits of maybe $500k spread among 14 B1G schools are about $35,000 per school. Unless they are really trying to build an athletic empire, why bother?
 
pj said:
If they can capture in-market BTN subscriber rates of $0.90 per household per month in North Dakota (about 173k cable households, http://www.tvb.org/media/file/Cable_UEs_by_State.pdf) simply by adding a hockey team, they'll be adding $1.9 million in annual revenue. I'm sure they would have to pay North Dakota less than $1 million to join the B1G in hockey. It would be a profitable move.

But, the University of North Dakota is not AAU. And we're talking small money - after Fox takes half the BTN, the profits of maybe $500k spread among 14 B1G schools are about $35,000 per school. Unless they are really trying to build an athletic empire, why bother?
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Easy: advertising. After the new contract is put into place, the BTN will be going after advertising. Having UND in the fold will help on Friday and Saturday night advertising. If UND can cause people within the markets to watch the hockey at a greater rate, then they are worth it. Detractors of The BTN always say that no one watches it (not completely true). If they can make the ratings that much better, than they are worth it.

On the flip side, not sure if they can. I know UND/Minny and UND/Wiscy would. Very strong rivalry between those schools and Minny in particular wasn't happy leaving The WCHA, partially due to leaving their rivalry with UND. Would OSU/UND increase ratings? Not so sure on that one.
 
Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV 8h8 hours ago
I can't see the Big 12 making Frosh ineligible for football. No way.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 8h8 hours ago
@theDudeofWV I don't think will see any conference do it unless it's been voted on and passed by all. 48 votes out of 80.

Justin ‏@Bearcatboyd23 8h8 hours ago
@flugempire I agree it would benefit the big12 to expand for more voting power on these issues. What does @theDudeofWV think?

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV 8h8 hours ago
@Bearcatboyd23 @flugempire You know what I think. The Big 12, SEC and ACC will vote as a block.

Hawkeye ‏@hawkeyeND 6h6 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @Bearcatboyd23 @flugempire ACC will vote with B1G and PAC more times than not. Especially in academic areas

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
@hawkeyeND @Bearcatboyd23 @flugempire I disagree. It there is one conf that has a need to buck the B1G its the ACC.

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire 6h6 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @hawkeyeND @Bearcatboyd23 ACC perception is that they don't have to....psssst ....don't wake them up. Seriously..ACC has...

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 6h 6 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @hawkeyeND @Bearcatboyd23 ...already has voted against Big 12&SEC with guaranteed 4year schollys. ACC won't always be with B12

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 4h 4 hours ago
Its depressing to see how many college sport writers do not know how P5 Autonomy voting work. Step up your games gentlemen.

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
@_KyleJacobson @flugempire @Expansion_Crush @JoeMcMurphy @HAVRHLL Honestly the only expansion hungry conf is the B1G. It has problems.

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @_KyleJacobson @Expansion_Crush @JoeMcMurphy @HAVRHLL Big Ten has problems...but it's <<<<<compared to ACC & Big 12

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @_KyleJacobson @Expansion_Crush @JoeMcMurphy @HAVRHLL Because Big Ten has monetized NJ/MD so well..its positioned for expansion

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @_KyleJacobson @Expansion_Crush @JoeMcMurphy @HAVRHLL ....in another 5-7 years

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @_KyleJacobson @Expansion_Crush @JoeMcMurphy @HAVRHLL To state that the Big 10 is looking at expansion and not others is...

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @_KyleJacobson @Expansion_Crush @JoeMcMurphy @HAVRHLL ....it's due to its strength...not its weakness.

 
Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 1h 1 hour ago
Year 1 of the SEC Network,according to South Carolina AD Tanner, will be giving out 5mil per school. Expectations was zero for first 2yrs.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 1h 1 hour ago
Big Ten schools received 7.6 mil in 2013 in BTN money...while giving a pot of BTN profits to Rut/MD to help fund transition to Big Ten.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 1h 1 hour ago
The rubber band of the BTN is now all wound up...paid off its origination loan(FOX)...ready to spill profits.SEC Network way ahead of sched

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
The continued success of the SEC a network...success beyond initial projections is actually good news for ACC trying to build ACCN with ESPN

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 1h 1 hour ago
The piggybacking off the SECN becomes more plausible for the ACCN the bigger the success of the SECN is subs and AD $ for ESPN/Disney

ME: With UConn, the ACCN would have a better chance of success. :)
 
Are we still on hockey?

North Dakota--the other ND that's never going to be in the B1G. B1G is my "front porch", my "brand", the way I fancy myself is "public ivy". The first rule is don't invite any university that's name after a state that bids for nuclear waste disposal sites. Good luck getting enough votes for that. (This isn't meant to disrespect North Dakota in any way--they're wonderful people, the fan bases at Grand Forks for hockey and NDSU for football are models for what every school's fan base should be, but I don't see it. Fargo/Moorhead's basically one city and if they share a cable franchise, you've already got a quarter of the TV's in North Dakota.)

B1G has a demographic problem, but they have a huge advantage in television. People in the Midwest and Northeast have at least some sports culture--football, basketball, hockey, whatever--and they stay home and watch a lot of TV in the winter. I've been watching the PAC12 Network struggle, and I project that SEC and ACC will have the some of the same problems. Better weather undermines all the sports that aren't football.

To the extent that hockey is relevant, it's about TV's through the Midwest and Northeast. The question is: What, if any, contribution can North Dakota make there? Probably not much and it would discount my brand.

Makes way more sense to add schools for all sports that has hockey--any suggestions?--or pry loose anything I can that fits my branding, associates east, and will turn on and tune in TV's, especially in New England which I consider mine by proxy if I can strengthen my hold.

Any university named after a state in New England is de facto more attractive than anything that ends in Dakota.

(Just an aside: Russian maps don't actually have the word Dakota. There's just a box that says, "Bomb here first.")
 
Seeing Flugaur interact with the WVU hill"people" is...

I'm mindflucked.
 
WILD SPECULATION FOLLOWS. For amusement purposes only.

For some time, I've been hearing rumblings of unhappiness from the Nebraska camp, and a few rumblings from B1G. Common psychological phenomenon: Buyer's remorse. To be expected. Within the past few weeks I heard the following rumor: Nebraska's going back to that Texas conference. I simply blew that off--the Beatles will reunite with Ouija boards before that happens. But it appears there may be some truth that something's up in Nebraska.

Then I heard that Arkansas had itchy feet and longing eyes for Texas. Then I heard Arkansas and Missouri were thinking of heading for Texas. Again, I blew the rumors off.

The someone posts here that UConn may be in a push with NDA's involved. How much veracity to give that rumor? Who knows? But it sounds legit to me for the obvious reason and one not-so-obvious reason. The way the B1G is valued it's going to be really, really difficult for any school to buy in before too long. Forget any conference's exit fee, it's the frigging B1G entrance fee that hardly anyone will be able to afford. Especially a school without a Kevin Plank waiting in the wings. Now--before the new TV contract--is the time to push the issue.

Then I start hearing all this hockey stuff.

So, with those inputs, I've deduced the following: Missouri and UConn to the B1G, sooner rather than later.

Here's how I arrived at that. First, no way--public protestations aside--the Big 12 isn't nosing expansion and a CCG. But they ain't getting any financial help from TV partners unless they get big time schools that will draw on TV--and those schools aren't going to be the usual suspects (Memphis, Cincinnati, et al). You'd need schools with better TV audiences, geographically fringe to the bulk of a conference, and no grant of rights. Schools like Nebraska, Missouri, and Arkansas. Inquiries get made, rumors start, leveraging begins. Maybe the time is right...for Missouri to have some buyer's remorse. Haven't heard any rumors at all, but it's basically a psychological fact and certainty that some constituencies at MO aren't happy about something.

Meanwhile, one of the bitches Nebraska has is the lack of traditional rivals. I don't think they would ever bed down with Texas again, but maybe they could convince Missouri and B1G to kiss and make up and leverage Omaha into B1G hockey. Then Missouri would need a traveling partner--one that could shore up the eastern end of the conference geography and bring in hockey as well. NDA's get signed and rumors start. This would be B1G perfect--pick Slive's pocket at his retirement party, thank Bowlsby for the invitation, then plop down on the Swofford's sofa and put your feet up on the coffee table while you light a cigar.

Problem solved. Welcome aboard.
 
I hope you're absolutely 100% correct, but I can't imagine -Nebraska and +UConn would appease the football-heavy B1G schools, especially those more west. I'm sure Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers wouldn't have much issue, but I can't imagine Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan are going to be jumping for joy at that footbal net loss.

And in this Omaha to B1G hockey only scenario, BU would once again turn it down, HE is still a better league than those seven, or eight with UConn.
 
I don't think he's hypothesizing that Nebraska would leave...just that they're not happy with lack of close travel r1vals. He's putting on his HFD cap to say that Delany would want to bring in Missouri for a local r1val and UCONN to add to its eastern movement. I think that combo would appease all factions of B1G expansionists. No GoR worries either.
 
Missouri and UConn is plausible, but it would leave the B1G poorly placed to take a Virginia school (17 schools?) which they seem to covet.

But the implausibility of any B1G or SEC school, like Arkansas or Nebraska, going to the B12 makes the relevance of the other rumors hard to fathom.
 
Agreed. No school is going to move from the B1G or SEC to go to the B12 or ACC in our lifetimes. At some point, we'll see B12/ACC school(s) migrate up to B1G/SEC but that could take a while because of GoRs. I think what our gopher friend is saying is that he's looking for an immediate B1G expansion because of the upcoming BTN TV contract negotiations. To do something immediately, the best options are schools that aren't tied up by GoRs. UCONN, Missouri, Kentucky, etc. I think a school would leave the SEC to the B1G if you begin to factor in YEAR ROUND content as well as research money.
 
What is the difference in revenue between the SEC and the B1G, if any? I'm having a hard time envisioning Missouri leaving. That's a whole lot of energy to invest.
 
CL82 said:
What is the difference in revenue between the SEC and the B1G, if any? I'm having a hard time envisioning Missouri leaving. That's a whole lot of energy to invest.
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TV wise, probably not much. I think the big allure of the B1G in comparison to the SEC is the research money. Not to mention, after football season is over, the SEC, aside from Kentucky and Florida (in most years), becomes a mid-major quality type of conference. For all the interest that Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, etc generate in football, they generate next to no interest outside of football.

But, again, if you're a school that cares about academics and research money (like Missouri is), then the B1G > SEC.
 
To prove that their SEC myth-busting was no fluke, I could see Missouri looking for a new challenge.
 
My wife does Sudoku; I do realignment. Basically, we're quiet and boring people. And I have a very dry sense of humor that is frequently misinterpreted.

I also am chock full of hidden bias and assumptions. For example, I believe GOR's can be busted and liquidated damages paid like any other contract. I also think there's no way the B1G or anyone else wants to test that because they're approaching the invisible line that draws unwanted complications--like a congressional hearing.

That means that realignment, at least as far as grabbing an ACC or Big 12 school, is dead--in which case we have lots of time to talk.

But that leads to Delany's dilemma: time value. The B1G has a cash cow network now.

Hypothetically, let's say the house I want to rent the house next door. Some guy from Texas says I'm moving and I might take it but not til 2024; I'll pay 3K a month. Some guy from Virginia says I'll might take it when I move in 2026 and but I'll only pay 1K a month. Some guy from Connecticut says I will take it, now. I can only pay 1K a month, but I'll take real good care of it.

It's basically a math problem that can be quantified. I can't do the math because I don't have the inputs but my educated guess says, Take the money now. Or, to put it in a baseball metaphor, sometimes you win the game because you've got sluggers sailing 'em over the fences, but you can also win the game with a single here, a double there, a steal and a sacrifice--basic scrappy baseball.

Of course, once the problem is quantified you've got to get consensus of all constituents. Delany, the cat herder.

To use a rather more crude metaphor: Delany at the dance eyeing that sweet young thing from Texas holding court with her suitors, all smiles in her tiara and billowing pink dress. So Delany asks for a dance and she just says, "Maybe the next dance, but not tonight." Delany approaches the Virginia dogwood queen and gets shot down. So Delany wanders over to the punch bowl and some girl from Connecticut wanders over and say, "You're cute. Listen, I know I might not be the prettiest girl here but if you dance with me you're gonna get laid tonight."

That's where realignment is now in a nutshell. Yes, you can get into all that x televisions, y advertising, 14 members gives us this much live football vs 16 giving us this much inventory. How much guaranteed now vs. waiting on potential partners--potential being the operative word.

So I guess my hidden bias in realignment is probably just simple horniness. I want it now.
 
Delany is, or will be, 67 this year. I don't think he cares about getting laid tonight, so "potential" it is.

On the GoR thing, they're not all made equal. The B1G has one, but doesn't need it. On the other hand, it's the only thing holding the ACC together. If the exit fee alone isn't enough to stop the ACC poaching, as years tick by, neither will the GoR.
 
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Seaa Blue said:
Delany is, or will be, 67 this year. I don't think he cares about getting laid tonight, so "potential" it is.

On the GoR thing, they're not all made equal. The B1G has one, but doesn't need it. On the other hand, it's the only thing holding the ACC together. If the exit fee alone isn't enough to stop the ACC poaching, as years tick by, neither will the GoR.
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You may be right--but Delany's still cute. And frugal, too. Apparently goes to Supercuts.
 

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