Non-Key Tweets

[Patman]

Within 3 years of a top 40 the entire thing will implode, why waste your time watching semi-pro when you can watch the real thing on Sundays.
Plus there would be no reason for the NF L not to expand the days they broadcast games.
The only reason they don't do that now is college's are feeder programs.
Going to 40 teams you eliminate a lot of potential players for the pro's and they no longer have to play nice.

Yeah the whole thing is getting too silly way too fast. One thing that could happen is the European model with youth clubs but I am thinking more about second teams... junior varsity. What not.

Either way the whole system is breaking in pieces

Edit: the nfl is going to have to be careful because long term they might be getting flanked

 

[uconndogs]

One has to wonder why 18 teams have captured, over a ten year period, 50 percent of viewers. Obviously, folks from “disenfranchised” programs are tuning in.

ESPN has been honest in admitting that they have put their eggs solidly in the SEC basket. The market is consolidating. No accident that the P12 is gone, that the ACC contract was not extended.

Again, the model is changing completely. Professional sport franchises in which only a small number of programs will be able to compete. Funding and talent will be inceasingly concentrated. When you change your product you need to ask what the impact is to the consumer, or viewer in this case. It may be an enormous economic success for a select group of programs, but I don't think we know that for sure.

As a side note to this, I doubt even the elite programs know what their payroll costs are going to be. Pretty hard to figure out what your P&L looks like when you don't know your labor costs.

I see lots of risk......

 

[UConnJim]

Within 3 years of a top 40 the entire thing will implode, why waste your time watching semi-pro when you can watch the real thing on Sundays.
Plus there would be no reason for the NF L not to expand the days they broadcast games.
The only reason they don't do that now is college's are feeder programs.

The Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 prohibits the NFL from broadcasting games on Fridays and Saturdays until the 2nd or 3rd week of December. The Act was to prevent NFL football from taking fans away from HS and college football.

 

[Kolumbo]

Me for one. But, addressing the topic more broadly - college football is likely going to be two super conferences of probably 40 programs which will dominate money and talent. This will be a professional sports franchise model.

Of the roughly 135 programs that participate in the current BCS format, how much of the total college football fan base continues to identify with college football? Does a BC, Syracuse, Baylor fan continue to be a broad based college football fan knowing they have no practical way of competing with two power conferences. Or worse, those two conferences break off from the NCAA altogether.

My point is simply this. Conference realignment may turn out to be a huge economic success for a much smaller group of programs. But, given all the change, I think there is a big assumption that current viewership will all be restrained, let alone grow.

I used to watch all my football in Saturdays, now it’s mostly Sundays. I can watch the best players in the world in the NFL. I used to watch college football for something much different.

To take another view. Let's say the number is 40 and they break away with their professional model. That leaves 95 other programs including most of the Big 12 and ACC and the G5. There is plenty of talent out there for the remaining NCAA model. Every year a MAC team beats a B1G team, I believe, so talent is out there. 40 would be a good number because the remaining 95 would compete to win the NCAA Championship. It may actually drive viewership up for everyone else because suddenly everyone has a shot. The remaining conferences would still be great to compete in and the fact that your Alabamas and Ohio States are out of the way may be a good thing.

UConn Huskies! NCAA National Champions!!

 

[dayooper]

Me for one. But, addressing the topic more broadly - college football is likely going to be two super conferences of probably 40 programs which will dominate money and talent. This will be a professional sports franchise model.

Of the roughly 135 programs that participate in the current BCS format, how much of the total college football fan base continues to identify with college football? Does a BC, Syracuse, Baylor fan continue to be a broad based college football fan knowing they have no practical way of competing with two power conferences. Or worse, those two conferences break off from the NCAA altogether.

My point is simply this. Conference realignment may turn out to be a huge economic success for a much smaller group of programs. But, given all the change, I think there is a big assumption that current viewership will all be restrained, let alone grow.

I used to watch all my football in Saturdays, now it’s mostly Sundays. I can watch the best players in the world in the NFL. I used to watch college football for something much different.

The issue is that most programs know they already can’t compete for national championships. I know for a fact that many fans of MAC schools (I am a fan of the MAC in general) know they will never win a national championship. Yet, those fans still root for Michigan, MSU, OSU and the other schools. The MAC fans aren’t fans of their schools because they want to win a national championship, they are fans because the university means something to them. They are alumni or they had someone who took them to games. The majority of G5 fans that I know look at their teams this way. They aren’t disenfranchised, they are realists.

We assume there will be a P3 or P4 (depending on what happens to the ACC). They have guaranteed access to they playoff. Even the smaller conferences like the MAC have access. If they win their conference, Baylor, TCU, WVU and the rest of the Big12 all can make the playoff. My guess is there will be years that 2 Big12 teams get invited with the open spots. Sure fans of Cuse and BC might not watch college football, but are they even watching it now?

Let’s say the ACC breaks up. I believe 20-24 is the number of schools that will be in the Big10, SEC and Big12. That’s at least 60 and up to 72. We had 64 P5 team plus ND. Throw in the 4 that the Big 12 took when Texas and Oklahoma left. That’s 69 teams. Who gets left out that had access before? WSU and OSU? Probably. From the ACC? Cuse, BC, Wake Forest will probably be left out. Maybe GT, Louisville and Pitt? Stanford and Cal? Thats at most 10. Everybody else almost for certain will find a home in the P2+1. How many of these schools thought they were winning a National Championship in the past 15 years?

 

[billybud]

It is more than about money...

It is the fact that ESPN is devoting the prime time slots to the SEC...they admit to focusing on their prime investment.

Unlike last year, every single ABC game that has been announced (through week five,so far) for ABC features a SEC team.

Last year, there were 15 ACC vs ACC games on ABC.

With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, Sankey pushed for more prime slots and ESPN will want to maximize SEC viewing.The ACC is cooked as a first rate conference....relegated to lesser channels and ACCN and ACCNX televised games.

On top of the SEC dominating ESPN TV...ESPN will go about their business of manipulating the polls...playing down teams, playing up SEC teams.

 

[billybud]

The spotlight on the main stage is becoming smaller, leaving players on the stage wings in the shadows.

 

[jostar1]

 

[NowInStorrs]

That's pretty rough for SMU. Meanwhile, UConn has the state of Connecticut locked down. Interesting map.

 

[KryHavok]

With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, Sankey pushed for more prime slots and ESPN will want to maximize SEC viewing.The ACC is cooked as a first rate conference....relegated to lesser channels and ACCN and ACCNX televised games.

On top of the SEC dominating ESPN TV...ESPN will go about their business of manipulating the polls...playing down teams, playing up SEC teams.

Considering that ESPN has gone out of their way to NOT go out of their way to help the top public university in their own home state get into a top conference, it's kinda nice to see ESPN screw over other teams/conference (yeah, I'm petty like that). The ACC is ESPN's step-child while the MAC is the foster-child, but nobody better mess with ESPN's golden SEC child. It's alright though @billybud, you know FSU is gonna draw yes/ratings wherever they go.

 

[uconndogs]

To take another view. Let's say the number is 40 and they break away with their professional model. That leaves 95 other programs including most of the Big 12 and ACC and the G5. There is plenty of talent out there for the remaining NCAA model. Every year a MAC team beats a B1G team, I believe, so talent is out there. 40 would be a good number because the remaining 95 would compete to win the NCAA Championship. It may actually drive viewership up for everyone else because suddenly everyone has a shot. The remaining conferences would still be great to compete in and the fact that your Alabamas and Ohio States are out of the way may be a good thing.

UConn Huskies! NCAA National Champions!!

I agree that it could bifurcate and those outside the P2 could put something together that looks like college football.

 

[billybud]

I see that UConn-Duke is on ACCNX...

It should be a good game...but how many will access it ?

 

[uconndogs]

The issue is that most programs know they already can’t compete for national championships. I know for a fact that many fans of MAC schools (I am a fan of the MAC in general) know they will never win a national championship. Yet, those fans still root for Michigan, MSU, OSU and the other schools. The MAC fans aren’t fans of their schools because they want to win a national championship, they are fans because the university means something to them. They are alumni or they had someone who took them to games. The majority of G5 fans that I know look at their teams this way. They aren’t disenfranchised, they are realists.

We assume there will be a P3 or P4 (depending on what happens to the ACC). They have guaranteed access to they playoff. Even the smaller conferences like the MAC have access. If they win their conference, Baylor, TCU, WVU and the rest of the Big12 all can make the playoff. My guess is there will be years that 2 Big12 teams get invited with the open spots. Sure fans of Cuse and BC might not watch college football, but are they even watching it now?

Let’s say the ACC breaks up. I believe 20-24 is the number of schools that will be in the Big10, SEC and Big12. That’s at least 60 and up to 72. We had 64 P5 team plus ND. Throw in the 4 that the Big 12 took when Texas and Oklahoma left. That’s 69 teams. Who gets left out that had access before? WSU and OSU? Probably. From the ACC? Cuse, BC, Wake Forest will probably be left out. Maybe GT, Louisville and Pitt? Stanford and Cal? Thats at most 10. Everybody else almost for certain will find a home in the P2+1. How many of these schools thought they were winning a National Championship in the past 15 years?

Yes, the playing field has always been tilted, but the model that is emerging now with the P2, NIL, the portal and 115 scholarships will concentrate money and talent with a very few programs. I think much less than the 40 likely to comprise the P2.

Most programs will not be able to develop and retain talent. What fan wants to see their programs best players regularly lured away to programs with access to the most funding? At some point the field is so uneven the competitive element no longer exists.

College athletics is in the process of being turned on its head. All I’m saying is assuming the viewership is going to stay intact is a big assumption while you are changing a product this dramatically.

 

[Hondo 77]

Yes, the playing field has always been tilted, but the model that is emerging now with the P2, NIL, the portal and 115 scholarships will concentrate money and talent with a very few programs. I think much less than the 40 likely to comprise the P2.

Most programs will not be able to develop and retain talent. What fan wants to see their programs best players regularly lured away to programs with access to the most funding? At some point the field is so uneven the competitive element no longer exists.

College athletics is in the process of being turned on its head. All I’m saying is assuming the viewership is going to stay intact is a big assumption while you are changing a product this dramatically.

It’s the way it’s always been. It’s just all above board now.

 

[Drew]

 

[baggerbob]

Nothing

 

[GoConn]

It's pretty amazing 10 of 16 Big 12 schools come from just 4 states.

 

[Patman]

That's pretty rough for SMU. Meanwhile, UConn has the state of Connecticut locked down. Interesting map.

Mildly irrelevant. If their war chest allows them to win those numbers will change. Maybe not that much

 

[billybud]

Nothing

Not so sure...it appears that right now, the ACC has no media contract past 2027....

Could it be extended ? That's one question. The time listed in the contract to extend expired several years back.

Will ESPN want to extend the contract or will they make a lower offer... takes an approval vote and a new GOR signed by each member.

 

[Ldandy]

It's pretty amazing 10 of 16 Big 12 schools come from just 4 states.

If The ACC and Big 12 swapped 3 schools each they would both have contiguous memberships and make sense as regional entities.

Obviously California Politics, as well as petty territorial protectionism would keep this from happening, but swap Stanford, Cal, and SMU with WVU, Cincy, and UCF and suddenly that map looks downright sensible.

JMO but with The SEC content on being a regional superpower, it leaves only The B1G with the brands, fanbases, and media exposure to pull off coast to coast membership.

If you want to expand some more it would be easy to add UConn and USF to The ACC and either or both The PAC 2 and SDSU/Tulane to The Big 12.

 

[UConnJim]

If The ACC and Big 12 swapped 3 schools each they would both have contiguous memberships and make sense as regional entities.

Obviously California Politics, as well as petty territorial protectionism would keep this from happening, but swap Stanford, Cal, and SMU with WVU, Cincy, and UCF and suddenly that map looks downright sensible.

JMO but with The SEC content on being a regional superpower, it leaves only The B1G with the brands, fanbases, and media exposure to pull off coast to coast membership.

If you want to expand some more it would be easy to add UConn and USF to The ACC and either or both The PAC 2 and SDSU/Tulane to The Big 12.

SMU literally has no fans and they would be the 5th Big 12 school in Texas, so the Big 12 doesn't want/need them. Stanford/Cal wanted a more academic conference, the ACC, over the Big 12, and preferably want to join the Big 10. I think the Big 12 is going to expand into the Eastern time zone and that probably incudes current ACC schools.

 

[Luna]

It's pretty amazing 10 of 16 Big 12 schools come from just 4 states.

That’s a pretty regional conference with a few outcasts

 

[Kolumbo]

That’s a pretty regional conference with a few outcasts

True, but it's a pretty big region. The SEC has a smaller region.

 

[c29328]

I am missing something. I lived in Oregon 20 years. Oregon State and Washington state felt like they didn’t exist compared to OU and UW. I can’t see them as additive to a single conference other than the original pac 12. The pac 2 has nothing to offer Based on interest that I saw. And I worked in Corvallis.