The issue is that most programs know they already can’t compete for national championships. I know for a fact that many fans of MAC schools (I am a fan of the MAC in general) know they will never win a national championship. Yet, those fans still root for Michigan, MSU, OSU and the other schools. The MAC fans aren’t fans of their schools because they want to win a national championship, they are fans because the university means something to them. They are alumni or they had someone who took them to games. The majority of G5 fans that I know look at their teams this way. They aren’t disenfranchised, they are realists.
We assume there will be a P3 or P4 (depending on what happens to the ACC). They have guaranteed access to they playoff. Even the smaller conferences like the MAC have access. If they win their conference, Baylor, TCU, WVU and the rest of the Big12 all can make the playoff. My guess is there will be years that 2 Big12 teams get invited with the open spots. Sure fans of Cuse and BC might not watch college football, but are they even watching it now?
Let’s say the ACC breaks up. I believe 20-24 is the number of schools that will be in the Big10, SEC and Big12. That’s at least 60 and up to 72. We had 64 P5 team plus ND. Throw in the 4 that the Big 12 took when Texas and Oklahoma left. That’s 69 teams. Who gets left out that had access before? WSU and OSU? Probably. From the ACC? Cuse, BC, Wake Forest will probably be left out. Maybe GT, Louisville and Pitt? Stanford and Cal? Thats at most 10. Everybody else almost for certain will find a home in the P2+1. How many of these schools thought they were winning a National Championship in the past 15 years?