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billybud said:
Maybe...or maybe just wishcasting....

TV viewing right now...50% is captured by only 18 teams...when you move that up to 40 or so, it's nearly the universe.

Only 10% of viewers from bottom 71 schools...

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Here’s what I don’t understand about this anticpated break off of two super conferences: these teams won’t all be appointment television if there’s a break off of the P2.

For example, I’m absolutely watching a late season game between 9-0 FSU and 8-1 Clemson. I’m probably not watching them if they’re middling teams in a beefed up P2. I don’t have a dog in that fight, I watch when the stakes are high. Swap FSU/Clemson with whoever you want.

I don’t know how they maintain those ratings when the biggest brands are cannibalizing each other all year.
 
Exit 4 said:
Seems to me it all hinges on what ESPN offers the ACC on their next leg of their contract.

If ESPN gives them $ on par with the B12 contract (which might not be that much of a lift thanks to inflation), then things ought to stabilize through mid the 2030s.

My guess is that we should have some word on the ESPN ACC renewal numbers this winter.

And on the other hand, if the ACC gets the P12 treatment, then yes we are set for a meltdown. But I think ESPN opts to give the ACC B12 type money to bridge this all to the mid 2030s. I've been told by people in media that ESPN still values the ACC as a property.
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ESPN spent big for a piece of the NBA media rights which is the wildcard for extending the ACC. The business model of ESPN is in flux and they decided to bid big for the NBA and they already have the SEC media rights. Do they need both the ACC and Big 12 media rights or does it make sense for them to have a consolidated ACC/Big 12 to reduce their overall media rights costs while retaining a large amount of content? ESPN must be thinking why are we paying for the media rights of Wake Forest, SMU,...
 
noeynox said:
The NFL is a non profit so there is that.
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No longer. The commissioner earns $64 mill per year so it was time to pay the piper.

I'd think at some point the athletic departments would be considered professional sports and taxable entities.
 
baggerbob said:
Eventually when they attempt to make it a full professional league they will go out of business. Congress will make sure tax exemption goes away. On top of that the NFL brings in too much money to the Networks for them not to protect the real Professionals.
And the majority of the population will stop watching a minor league group of professionals.
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Congress can’t make sure of anything these days.
 
UConnJim said:
ESPN spent big for a piece of the NBA media rights which is the wildcard for extending the ACC. The business model of ESPN is in flux and they decided to bid big for the NBA and they already have the SEC media rights. Do they need both the ACC and Big 12 media rights or does it make sense for them to have a consolidated ACC/Big 12 to reduce their overall media rights costs while retaining a large amount of content? ESPN must be thinking why are we paying for the media rights of Wake Forest, SMU,...
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I was told by someone in the sports media rights pricing biz that espn still values the ACC content in a meaningful way. Proof will be in the pudding when that extension comes out.
 
blue93 said:
Here’s what I don’t understand about this anticpated break off of two super conferences: these teams won’t all be appointment television if there’s a break off of the P2.

For example, I’m absolutely watching a late season game between 9-0 FSU and 8-1 Clemson. I’m probably not watching them if they’re middling teams in a beefed up P2. I don’t have a dog in that fight, I watch when the stakes are high. Swap FSU/Clemson with whoever you want.

I don’t know how they maintain those ratings when the biggest brands are cannibalizing each other all year.
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Yep! ‘The world needs ditch diggers Danny’.
 
Exit 4 said:
I was told by someone in the sports media rights pricing biz that espn still values the ACC content in a meaningful way. Proof will be in the pudding when that extension comes out.
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Content costs going up at the same time revenues are flattish is not a recipe for success. Something needs to give and the ACC media rights extension is next up for negotiation. There was not one top 25 rated TV game that involved an ACC vs ACC matchup and the lowest 3 TV rated bowl games involving P5 schools had current ACC members BC, SMU, Syracuse, and Cal. Take out Clemson and FSU and the ACC media rights value drops considerably.
 
UConnJim said:
Content costs going up at the same time revenues are flattish is not a recipe for success. Something needs to give and the ACC media rights extension is next up for negotiation. There was not one top 25 rated TV game that involved an ACC vs ACC matchup and the lowest 3 TV rated bowl games involving P5 schools had current ACC members BC, SMU, Syracuse, and Cal. Take out Clemson and FSU and the ACC media rights value drops considerably.
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Some are estimating that FSU/Clemson equate to 25-30% of the entire ACC tv value.
 
billybud said:
Maybe...or maybe just wishcasting....

TV viewing right now...50% is captured by only 18 teams...when you move that up to 40 or so, it's nearly the universe.

Only 10% of viewers from bottom 71 schools...

Expand ...


I think college athletics needs to be very careful with the assumption that the viewer market is locked into the top programs. First of all, 10% of the market is an enormous piece of the market. The goal is to grow markets. Second, a lot of college fans watch the big programs compete becuase they identify with college athletics through their own affiliation. That model is all being upended and probably will be factured. I think that when the day comes that the average college football fan views Alabama, Michigan, USC, etc. like the view the New England Patriots, as professional sports franchises, college football is in a lot of trouble.

I'm only one fan, but I was an avid college athletics fan. My viewership is way down and continues to decline. Am I alone?
 
uconndogs said:
I think college athletics needs to be very careful with the assumption that the viewer market is locked into the top programs. First of all, 10% of the market is an enormous piece of the market. The goal is to grow markets. Second, a lot of college fans watch the big programs compete becuase they identify with college athletics through their own affiliation. That model is all being upended and probably will be factured. I think that when the day comes that the average college football fan views Alabama, Michigan, USC, etc. like the view the New England Patriots, as professional sports franchises, college football is in a lot of trouble.

I'm only one fan, but I was an avid college athletics fan. My viewership is way down and continues to decline. Am I alone?
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I think college football has the ability, perhaps even the likelihood, to get away with it and follow an NFL Lite model. The other sports not so much.
 
UConnJim said:
Content costs going up at the same time revenues are flattish is not a recipe for success. Something needs to give and the ACC media rights extension is next up for negotiation. There was not one top 25 rated TV game that involved an ACC vs ACC matchup and the lowest 3 TV rated bowl games involving P5 schools had current ACC members BC, SMU, Syracuse, and Cal. Take out Clemson and FSU and the ACC media rights value drops considerably.
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We shall see. All will be clear when ESPN and the ACC settle on their extension. We all thought the B12 had modest value and yet they pulled off a nice contract.

Barring a twist in the ACC lawsuits that allows for a low cost exit (then yes schools will leave and the ACC contract will lose value), I think the ACC gets a decent contract which will defer the ultimate P2/P3 alignment to the mid 2030s.
 
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Exit 4 said:
We shall see. All will be clear when ESPN and the ACC settle on their extension. We all thought the B12 had modest value and yet they pulled off a nice contract.

Barring a twist in the ACC lawsuits that allows for a low cost exit (then yes schools will leave and the ACC contract will lose value), I think the ACC gets a decent contract which will defer the ultimate P2/P3 alignment to the mid 2030s.
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You disagree without Clemson and FSU that the media rights at probably 30% less? This was like when B12 lost Texas and OU.
 
MHver3@MHver3
·
23h
My contact is saying a straw poll is currently being conducted to see how much support there is for adding Pac2. WVU is a no.


MHver3@MHver3
·
23h
WVU, Cincy, UCF, OkSU, and Kansas are currently “no” votes on the first straw poll. None of those 5 are a hard no though. More information needed. Board meeting informally to discuss with consultants.


MHver3@MHver3
·
22h
So espn actually has to pay less to add Pac2 to B12 vs adding to ACC. ACC currently shopping for more additions anticipating multiple defections and needing to stay at 14 to keep ESPN deal from getting restructured.



MHver3@MHver3
WVU and a few other B12 schools offering the following counter-proposal to BY today :

MHver3@MHver3
·
9h
B12 enters a scheduling alliance with Pac2 in 2025. If ratings are satisfactory then an invitation to join would be extended with entrance fee requirements and a graduated buy in. Wouldn’t be a full share member until next tv contract.


MHver3@MHver3
·
9h
Pac2 halts all legal disputes with networks during this “evaluation period”

MHver3@MHver3
·
9h
The “entrance fee” would be used to offset travel costs for the expanded geographical footprint.

MHver3@MHver3
·
9h
Pac2 relinquishes ownership of PAC assets to B12 as a condition of joining the conference. This includes all monies, media infrastructure, and intellectual property


MHver3@MHver3
·
9h
B12 CEOs would need to approve a provision that if the conference expands again there will be at least 2 additions east of the Mississippi River

MHver3@MHver3
·
54m
ESPN looking to once again block Apple and Amazon from power4 content. Pac2 absorption by B12 would create extra inventory. ESPN now offering to partner with B12 to create a conference network and secure carriage.

MHver3@MHver3
·
47m
K-State and Iowa St changed their stance on the additions to a soft “no”. BY is telling the network there is a path to unanimous support but it’s going to take time and negotiation with all 3 parties.


MHver3
@MHver3
·
48m
Full steam ahead though on starting talks with Pac2 for a 2025 scheduling agreement.


MHver3@MHver3
45m
BY and B12 not looking to make a hair trigger decision. There is majority support for the pac2 additions but 2 extra mouths to feed in the west when the focus is on the east means this is not going to be rushed.


MHver3@MHver3
·
40m
B12 partnering with espn on a network for the extra inventory has risks. Start up costs would be low due to PACN existing infrastructure but up front revenue would be lower than just selling off the content. Long term potential revenue could outweigh risks.
 
billybud said:
Maybe...or maybe just wishcasting....

TV viewing right now...50% is captured by only 18 teams...when you move that up to 40 or so, it's nearly the universe.

Only 10% of viewers from bottom 71 schools...

Expand ...

I think it’s worth knowing what the total number of viewers actually is. Potentially losing 10% of viewers by dropping those bottom schools could still be a rather significant number of viewers.
 
Greedo said:
I think it’s worth knowing what the total number of viewers actually is. Potentially losing 10% of viewers by dropping those bottom schools could still be a rather significant number of viewers.
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Believe me...a business will plan on focusing on where 90% of the business revenue comes from...

And..I'll bet the ad revenue is not 90%-10%....the ad revenue may not be proportionate to viewing but be weighted to
heavy viewing,

When you have 97,000 watching Memphis-UAB and and 5.3 million watching Penn State-Ohio State the same Saturday...Memphis-UAB is not worth worrying with,
 

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