Nightmare gets worse as USF & Cincy....

[RS9999X]

Doom and Gloomers -- You may want to note the last 4 in rarely get a bid due to bubble busters. In 2010 Seton Hall started tourney week as the 4th or 5th "last team in" and got squeezed out. An 18-11 regular season, low 50s RPI. No bad losses to RPI > 100, etc.

If a bubble buster doesn't squeeze them out then its one of the "First Four Out" that makes their conference semi-finals or better at tourney time.

And then there's that one unjustifiable NCAA pick every year.....

USF has WVU Sat. A win and they are in. Cincy has Nova. A win and they are in. That puts them finishing 5 and 6 in the Big East. Cincy's soft schedule and USF's lack of marquee wins won't matter.

 

[imno1]

Really, I don't care if this team makes the tournament or not. They've squandered opportunity after opportunity all season long. There comes a time where you say, "Put me out of my misery already, I'm not going to keep falling into the trap".

This team has had opportunities for marquee wins all year long, and they've come up with very few. We came out flat against Marquette, we rolled over in the second half against Louisville and Georgetown, we dissolved in crunch time against Providence...just don't waste your time with this team. Give a bid to f'in Northwestern for all I care, just keep this team out.

Please change your name to Bandwagon

 

[willie99]

OMG, some teams on the bubble will win, others lose, it's happens all the time. Do people really think a team with a 78 RPI jumps us at 35 with 1 win? I never liked the RPI, but it's the tool the committee uses.

at 35, we're in. Teams over 50 get a few at large bids, teams 60+ getting at large bids are very rare

we win two, we're on the right side

we win three, there is no bubble

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Miami's resume was pretty dodgy before tonight, and this might be the last straw for them. UMass is their third best win. I don't think they are a real threat for a bid.

Mississippi State avoided disaster tonight. South Carolina is terrible and would have been a devastating loss (kinda like Providence). While their RPI sucks, they also have a bunch of quality wins. Will be an interesting case.

Northwestern would have secured a bid with a win over Ohio State. Bullet dodged.

The three games that hurt tonight were USF, Cincinnati and Colorado State. All 3 schools were probably on the outside looking in and all three landed Top 25 wins. USF in particular had no path to the tournament without a big win. Prior to last night, Seton Hall was USF's best win. At this point, we want USF to beat WVU. Cincinnati played 3 non-conference games against Top 200 teams. The Committee has been very consistent in punishing teams that don't play good OOC schedules, but it doesn't matter now with a win over Marquette. Colorado State had gamed the system to a Top 30 RPI by not playing any terrible teams, but needed another Top 30 win to go with their victory over SDSU. Mission accomplished.

 

[Hi-Low]

What part of IT DOES NOT MATTER WHEN UCONN DOES WHAT AT ALL TO THE COMMITTEE do people not understand?

The timing does not matter. It doooooes nooot matterrrrrr. They have removed it as a judgement. I cannot stress this enough.

If UConn loses in their next 3 it hurts ONLY because they're bad losses for the resume, not at all because of when they happen. When does not matter. At all.

Not sure exactly what your point is....all the wins we have count ofcourse but we are on the bubble big time....all the bubble teams have positives & negatives and all are in danger of being out...if another bubble team gets a positive win then it hurts the other bubble teams....simple math. Last night hurt Uconn in many ways...not out, just in a worse position....i hate the word "bubble" after next Sunday I hope I never have to use it again.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Not sure exactly what your point is....all the wins we have count ofcourse but we are on the bubble big time....all the bubble teams have positives & negatives and all are in danger of being out...if another bubble team gets a positive win then it hurts the other bubble teams....simple math. Last night hurt Uconn in many ways...not out, just in a worse position....i hate the word "bubble" after next Sunday I hope I never have to use it again.

Lots of posters continue to say that the committee will never let us in because we are 3-9 in our last 12. His point is that the committee does not consider "record down the stretch" as a criteria. Our losses in recent weeks hurt us because they hurt our overall profile - but limping to the finish line is not viewed as a negative by the committee as long as our season-long body of work is better than enough other bubble teams.

 

[Hi-Low]

Lots of posters continue to say that the committee will never let us in because we are 3-9 in our last 12. His point is that the committee does not consider "record down the stretch" as a criteria. Our losses in recent weeks hurt us because they hurt our overall profile - but limping to the finish line is not viewed as a negative by the committee as long as our season-long body of work is better than enough other bubble teams.

I get that but there is the "eye test" and we are playing bad now and the teams we are fighting for spots with are winning...we aren't. So even if it's about the overall body of work 3-9 hurts. I am just being a realist...2 wins may not be good enough anymore and 1-1 definetly not imo.

 

[RS9999X]

Lots of posters continue to say that the committee will never let us in because we are 3-9 in our last 12. His point is that the committee does not consider "record down the stretch" as a criteria. Our losses in recent weeks hurt us because they hurt our overall profile - but limping to the finish line is not viewed as a negative by the committee as long as our season-long body of work is better than enough other bubble teams.

Here's the thing with the Commitee. They always consider stuff that is 'off the books/'

The commitee spends 5 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars selecting 4 teams.

In reality RPI predicts 33 or 34 out of the 37 at-large teams. It's 90% of the at-large picks over the last 13 years. You can literally check the teams off in RPI order.

The S-curve could be automated by software: the rules are simple.

The point: those "last 4 in" teams are subject to human bias. The last 10 games and momentum still count in creating bias.

 

[Hi-Low]

Here's the thing with the Commitee. They always consider stuff that is 'off the books/'

The commitee spends 5 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars selecting 4 teams.

In reality RPI predicts 33 or 34 out of the 37 at-large teams. It's 90% of the at-large picks over the last 13 years. You can literally check the teams off in RPI order.

The S-curve could be automated by software: the rules are simple.

The point: those "last 4 in" teams are subject to human bias. The last 10 games and momentum still count in creating bias.

Sounds about right....and with rpi around 35 we are now in "the last 4 in" conversation unless we beat a ranked team in BE tourney....which we are more than capable of doing, just need to win a game or 2 first.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Here's the thing with the Commitee. They always consider stuff that is 'off the books/'

The commitee spends 5 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars selecting 4 teams.

In reality RPI predicts 33 or 34 out of the 37 at-large teams. It's 90% of the at-large picks over the last 13 years. You can literally check the teams off in RPI order.

The S-curve could be automated by software: the rules are simple.

The point: those "last 4 in" teams are subject to human bias. The last 10 games and momentum still count in creating bias.

I generally agree, although I feel like the Committee has gotten a little more subjective in the last few years. Maybe the last 6-7 bubble teams are more "eye test" than just the last 4. I believe the committee has also shown a willingness to jump a high RPI team in recent years and take lower rated teams with better overall resumes.

 

[jibsey]

lets worry about sat first......pitt's offense was on fire tonight. we need to win that first!

Dixon has pitt convinced they can get in with a win against us and 3 in the tourney for all we know, but 3 wins gets us in, of course we have no evidence that we are capable.

 

[TopDog18]

Jon (Norwalk, CT)​

Uconn wins 2 more games (including the Big East Tourney) and they're in. fact or fiction?

Joe Lunardi​

(3:38 PM)

Fact.

 

[Hi-Low]

Jon (Norwalk, CT)​

Uconn wins 2 more games (including the Big East Tourney) and they're in. fact or fiction?

Joe Lunardi​

(3:38 PM)

Fact.

Hope so, i bet he said that before last night. Things are fluid and change daily, so what's true one day could be less certain the next. To be safe I think 3 wins are needed but, as always, it will depend on what other teams do and the results of Conf tourneys that could "steal" bids. Heck 1 win could be enough if things break our way but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[NHUConnfan]

Hope so, i bet he said that before last night. Things are fluid and change daily, so what's true one day could be less certain the next. To be safe I think 3 wins are needed but, as always, it will depend on what other teams do and the results of Conf tourneys that could "steal" bids. Heck 1 win could be enough if things break our way but I wouldn't count on it.

Seriously dude, name me any of these conferences schools that have a better record against RPI top 50 than UConn.

The answer is ZERO!

 

[Scoe]

Right now it is in the hands of the committee Uconn still has a shot to put the tournament hopes in their own hands so its up to them.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Not much bubble action tonight:

Oregon and Colorado play basically an elimination game (each is 5-6 spots away from the cut line).

A little bit further down the list, Illinois is playing a must-win vs. Michigan.

And New Mexico State has a must-win @ Nevada.

All of those teams have a way to go to overtake us thought.

 

[Hi-Low]

Seriously dude, name me any of these conferences schools that have a better record against RPI top 50 than UConn.

The answer is ZERO!

Sorry, I guess I was unclear...by "bids stolen" I meant when there are conf tourney upsets...ie Mo Valley Conf won by someone other than Witchita St or Creighton (both tourney locks) thus one less "at large" bid avaiable.

 

[CAHUSKY]

Not much bubble action tonight:

Oregon and Colorado play basically an elimination game (each is 5-6 spots away from the cut line).

A little bit further down the list, Illinois is playing a must-win vs. Michigan.

And New Mexico State has a must-win @ Nevada.

All of those teams have a way to go to overtake us thought.

No chance on earth that NMSU makes the tourney unless they win the WAC tournament. Not an issue as Nevada is going to kick their ass. Im on my way to the game in about an hour.

 

[Hi-Low]

Good win by Fla St....helps our rpi a little.

 

[Fishy]

Hope so, i bet he said that before last night. Things are fluid and change daily, so what's true one day could be less certain the next. To be safe I think 3 wins are needed but, as always, it will depend on what other teams do and the results of Conf tourneys that could "steal" bids. Heck 1 win could be enough if things break our way but I wouldn't count on it.

There weren't any major changes yesterday. No one who was out earned their way in.

The bubble is so critically weak that even two wins puts UConn so far up that it would be hard for enough dominoes to fall to knock them off.

One game to watch - Penn's game at Princeton next Tuesday. That's Penn's best chance at a loss in their last three games and Harvard needs Penn to lose at least one game to have a chance at a playoff for the Ivy title.

(Both teams play two home games this weekend.)

 

[champs99and04]

We get it guy. You like rooting for our "good" teams. We'll see you next time the wagon comes 'round.

We get it, you enjoy making vague generalizations about people on the internet because you disagree with what they said. I'm a bandwagon fan because I don't enjoy watching this team make the same mistakes over and over, just like I'm a racist for not buying into the Jeremy Lin hype. *k outta here with that attitude.

 

[champs99and04]

Please change your name to Bandwagon

Hey...if you want to wake up at 1 in the morning to check the Colorado State score, be my guest. If you want to bite your fingernails on selection sunday, fret about the Providence re-match next Tuesday, and beg the committee to let us in, then that's your call. I'll continue to root for and support the team as always, but I care about them getting better. If they keep playing this way and make the tournament I won't give a , because I know they'll lose in the first round. I'd rather they improve, maybe make a small run in the NIT, and build towards next year.

Personally, I don't see the difference between playing and the NIT and losing 53-40 in the round of 64. Hang me.

 

[8893]

We get it, you enjoy making vague generalizations about people on the internet because you disagree with what they said. I'm a bandwagon fan because I don't enjoy watching this team make the same mistakes over and over, just like I'm a racist for not buying into the Jeremy Lin hype. *k outta here with that attitude.

No, you are a bandwagon fan because you have defined yourself that way in several essays in which you have detailed how you are no longer rooting for UConn and you are actively hoping that they do not make the NCAA tournament and that other teams make it instead. You have also detailed how you have enjoyed rooting for the good teams and the championships they have won in years past. That, by definition is a bandwagon fan, and that is you. No one needs to make a judgment call there; you have defined yourself. Sorry if you don't like it, but that's what you are, and you are hardly alone; you're just the one writing essays about it.

As for Lin, I don't recall an exchange with you, but I know I didn't call you a racist. If you are the one who called him cocky and said he was getting Jordan calls, I probably remarked that you weren't watching the games, and I stand by that. I am actually 100% certain of it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Hope so, i bet he said that before last night. Things are fluid and change daily, so what's true one day could be less certain the next. To be safe I think 3 wins are needed but, as always, it will depend on what other teams do and the results of Conf tourneys that could "steal" bids. Heck 1 win could be enough if things break our way but I wouldn't count on it.

It's worth noting that Lunardi often plays to the crowd leading up to Selection Sunday, and usually makes 1 or 2 about faces on schools on Selection Sunday with little or no explanation. Lunardi's actual job is to generate page hits, and as we can guess, UConn basketball has a much bigger web fan base than say Miami or Colorado State. We complain endlessly how Rivals and Scout bias their football recruiting rankings to the schools with the most online subscribers, so we shouldn't be blind to the same thing happening with Lunardi. I tend to agree with the "2 and in" theory, although I am a little less sure with Cincinnati, USF and Colorado State picking off Top 25 teams on Wednesday.

 

[NHUConnfan]

Sorry, I guess I was unclear...by "bids stolen" I meant when there are conf tourney upsets...ie Mo Valley Conf won by someone other than Witchita St or Creighton (both tourney locks) thus one less "at large" bid avaiable.

Yeah and you realize that there are A TON of weak teams this year. And UConn is at the top of that list.