Nightmare gets worse as USF & Cincy.... | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Nightmare gets worse as USF & Cincy....

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It's no fun watching the scoreboard but when there are 24 teams competing for 12 spots (give or take) it matters greatly what other teams are doing....Uconn controlling it's destiny has passed unless it wins more than 2 games.
 
Hi-Low said:
It's no fun watching the scoreboard but when there are 24 teams competing for 12 spots (give or take) it matters greatly what other teams are doing....Uconn controlling it's destiny has passed unless it wins more than 2 games.
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We get the agenda, sport.

You can tone it down now.
 
Oklahoma's gimmicky 3-2 zone defense backfiring bigtime: Texas has hit about 4 3's in the last 6 possessions.
 
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-Huskiediehard- said:
I agree VUCE the bubble is weak non matter what happens. Some will play their way in some will play their way out and UConn has to be one of the teams that plays itself in. 3 wins and in starts this sat at home.
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I still don't understand this. IF the committee is looking at the entire body of work, UConn is in, no problem. 6 wins against RPI top 50 is better than any other team even close to the bubble.

USF still has a chance to play themselves out. Cincinnati was probably already in anyway. Miss. St. was pretty much already in.
 
NHUConnfan said:
I still don't understand this. IF the committee is looking at the entire body of work, UConn is in, no problem. 6 wins against RPI top 50 is better than any other team even close to the bubble.

USF still has a chance to play themselves out. Cincinnati was probably already in anyway. Miss. St. was pretty much already in.
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Maybe, but losing 9 of 12 is ugly. We will drive the commitee crazy I think because computer #'s good but last 2 months have been bad.
 
Oklahoma falling apart down the stretch. Give this one to Texas. They are still in.
 
Lets hope texas loses the first rd sec game because my eye test with Texas is a NIT team. for sure.
 
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NC State beats Miami, which moves both teams closer to the cut line. Probably moot as far as we're concerned.
 
It's safe to say will be an interesting weekend...could go either way for a bunch of teams....first step, as others have said, is to beat Pitt. Tonight a mix of bad/good results but uconn a little worse off than before the night started imo.
 
CSU comes back from 14 down and wins. They'll be a tough out, you know, playing at altitude and all.
 
Colorado State probably takes Northwestern's spot, and Miami's position is a bit more precarious. I think after tonight we're still in, and probably still avoiding a play-in game, but not by much.
 
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Hi-Low said:
It's no fun watching the scoreboard but when there are 24 teams competing for 12 spots (give or take) it matters greatly what other teams are doing....Uconn controlling it's destiny has passed unless it wins more than 2 games.
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What part of IT DOES NOT MATTER WHEN UCONN DOES WHAT AT ALL TO THE COMMITTEE do people not understand?

The timing does not matter. It doooooes nooot matterrrrrr. They have removed it as a judgement. I cannot stress this enough.

If UConn loses in their next 3 it hurts ONLY because they're bad losses for the resume, not at all because of when they happen. When does not matter. At all.
 
If you cant get in out of 68 teams its your own damn fault, good for USF and Cincy they have earned it Uconn has not, and they still have a shot its very simple win and your in, lose and leave it in the hands of the commitee, fold and your out.
 
Doom and Gloomers -- You may want to note the last 4 in rarely get a bid due to bubble busters. In 2010 Seton Hall started tourney week as the 4th or 5th "last team in" and got squeezed out. An 18-11 regular season, low 50s RPI. No bad losses to RPI > 100, etc.

If a bubble buster doesn't squeeze them out then its one of the "First Four Out" that makes their conference semi-finals or better at tourney time.

And then there's that one unjustifiable NCAA pick every year.....

USF has WVU Sat. A win and they are in. Cincy has Nova. A win and they are in. That puts them finishing 5 and 6 in the Big East. Cincy's soft schedule and USF's lack of marquee wins won't matter.
 
champs99and04 said:
Really, I don't care if this team makes the tournament or not. They've squandered opportunity after opportunity all season long. There comes a time where you say, "Put me out of my misery already, I'm not going to keep falling into the trap".

This team has had opportunities for marquee wins all year long, and they've come up with very few. We came out flat against Marquette, we rolled over in the second half against Louisville and Georgetown, we dissolved in crunch time against Providence...just don't waste your time with this team. Give a bid to f'in Northwestern for all I care, just keep this team out.
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Please change your name to Bandwagon
 
OMG, some teams on the bubble will win, others lose, it's happens all the time. Do people really think a team with a 78 RPI jumps us at 35 with 1 win? I never liked the RPI, but it's the tool the committee uses.

at 35, we're in. Teams over 50 get a few at large bids, teams 60+ getting at large bids are very rare

we win two, we're on the right side

we win three, there is no bubble
 
Miami's resume was pretty dodgy before tonight, and this might be the last straw for them. UMass is their third best win. I don't think they are a real threat for a bid.

Mississippi State avoided disaster tonight. South Carolina is terrible and would have been a devastating loss (kinda like Providence). While their RPI sucks, they also have a bunch of quality wins. Will be an interesting case.

Northwestern would have secured a bid with a win over Ohio State. Bullet dodged.

The three games that hurt tonight were USF, Cincinnati and Colorado State. All 3 schools were probably on the outside looking in and all three landed Top 25 wins. USF in particular had no path to the tournament without a big win. Prior to last night, Seton Hall was USF's best win. At this point, we want USF to beat WVU. Cincinnati played 3 non-conference games against Top 200 teams. The Committee has been very consistent in punishing teams that don't play good OOC schedules, but it doesn't matter now with a win over Marquette. Colorado State had gamed the system to a Top 30 RPI by not playing any terrible teams, but needed another Top 30 win to go with their victory over SDSU. Mission accomplished.
 
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zls44 said:
What part of IT DOES NOT MATTER WHEN UCONN DOES WHAT AT ALL TO THE COMMITTEE do people not understand?

The timing does not matter. It doooooes nooot matterrrrrr. They have removed it as a judgement. I cannot stress this enough.

If UConn loses in their next 3 it hurts ONLY because they're bad losses for the resume, not at all because of when they happen. When does not matter. At all.
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Not sure exactly what your point is....all the wins we have count ofcourse but we are on the bubble big time....all the bubble teams have positives & negatives and all are in danger of being out...if another bubble team gets a positive win then it hurts the other bubble teams....simple math. Last night hurt Uconn in many ways...not out, just in a worse position....i hate the word "bubble" after next Sunday I hope I never have to use it again.
 
Hi-Low said:
Not sure exactly what your point is....all the wins we have count ofcourse but we are on the bubble big time....all the bubble teams have positives & negatives and all are in danger of being out...if another bubble team gets a positive win then it hurts the other bubble teams....simple math. Last night hurt Uconn in many ways...not out, just in a worse position....i hate the word "bubble" after next Sunday I hope I never have to use it again.
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Lots of posters continue to say that the committee will never let us in because we are 3-9 in our last 12. His point is that the committee does not consider "record down the stretch" as a criteria. Our losses in recent weeks hurt us because they hurt our overall profile - but limping to the finish line is not viewed as a negative by the committee as long as our season-long body of work is better than enough other bubble teams.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
Lots of posters continue to say that the committee will never let us in because we are 3-9 in our last 12. His point is that the committee does not consider "record down the stretch" as a criteria. Our losses in recent weeks hurt us because they hurt our overall profile - but limping to the finish line is not viewed as a negative by the committee as long as our season-long body of work is better than enough other bubble teams.
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I get that but there is the "eye test" and we are playing bad now and the teams we are fighting for spots with are winning...we aren't. So even if it's about the overall body of work 3-9 hurts. I am just being a realist...2 wins may not be good enough anymore and 1-1 definetly not imo.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
Lots of posters continue to say that the committee will never let us in because we are 3-9 in our last 12. His point is that the committee does not consider "record down the stretch" as a criteria. Our losses in recent weeks hurt us because they hurt our overall profile - but limping to the finish line is not viewed as a negative by the committee as long as our season-long body of work is better than enough other bubble teams.
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Here's the thing with the Commitee. They always consider stuff that is 'off the books/'

The commitee spends 5 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars selecting 4 teams.

In reality RPI predicts 33 or 34 out of the 37 at-large teams. It's 90% of the at-large picks over the last 13 years. You can literally check the teams off in RPI order.

The S-curve could be automated by software: the rules are simple.

The point: those "last 4 in" teams are subject to human bias. The last 10 games and momentum still count in creating bias.
 
RS9999X said:
Here's the thing with the Commitee. They always consider stuff that is 'off the books/'

The commitee spends 5 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars selecting 4 teams.

In reality RPI predicts 33 or 34 out of the 37 at-large teams. It's 90% of the at-large picks over the last 13 years. You can literally check the teams off in RPI order.

The S-curve could be automated by software: the rules are simple.

The point: those "last 4 in" teams are subject to human bias. The last 10 games and momentum still count in creating bias.
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Sounds about right....and with rpi around 35 we are now in "the last 4 in" conversation unless we beat a ranked team in BE tourney....which we are more than capable of doing, just need to win a game or 2 first.
 
RS9999X said:
Here's the thing with the Commitee. They always consider stuff that is 'off the books/'

The commitee spends 5 days and hundreds of thousands of dollars selecting 4 teams.

In reality RPI predicts 33 or 34 out of the 37 at-large teams. It's 90% of the at-large picks over the last 13 years. You can literally check the teams off in RPI order.

The S-curve could be automated by software: the rules are simple.

The point: those "last 4 in" teams are subject to human bias. The last 10 games and momentum still count in creating bias.
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I generally agree, although I feel like the Committee has gotten a little more subjective in the last few years. Maybe the last 6-7 bubble teams are more "eye test" than just the last 4. I believe the committee has also shown a willingness to jump a high RPI team in recent years and take lower rated teams with better overall resumes.
 
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